Entering play on May 12th, the Braves stand first in the NL East with a 21-15 record. The Nationals are in second with a 20-16 record, followed by the Phillies (17-21), the Mets (14-19), and the Marlins (11-26). I am going to focus on the Braves and Nationals, because I think they are the two that will stay in the division race in September.

The first comparison that we’ll look at is the Pythagorean Win-Loss record. This is the record that comes from the amount of runs you scored (wins) to the amount of runs you have given up (losses), also known as the run differential. The Braves Pythagorean record is 21-15, while the Nationals is 17-19. This means the Nationals should be playing below .500 ball, but are the beneficiaries of luck.

Luck is the amount of wins that a team is away from their Pythagorean Win-Loss record. For an example, the Baltimore Orioles were the luckiest team in baseball last year with 11 wins more than they’re Pythagorean record indicates. Five teams were five wins less than their Pythagorean record indicated, with only the St. Louis Cardinals making the playoffs from that group. This year, the Nationals are tie with the Yankees with a luck of three extra wins, while the Braves have 0. I’d rather be lucky than good, but luck can sometimes run its course. From the math the Braves are better.

The next matter to be discussed is the strength of schedule (SOS). To calculate SOS you simply calculate the number of runs per game their opponents are better (or worse) than the average team. In lamens terms, I use baseball reference and fangraphs to find the SOS. The Braves are in a tie with five other teams with their SOS rating of zero, which is good for 14th place. The Nationals, on the other hand, have an SOS rating of .1, which is good for a tie with five other teams for 9th place. This means the Nationals have played a tougher schedule, but not by enough to make up for their record.

The Simple Rating System (SRS) is the final measure that we will view to judge the Braves and Nationals. SRS is very easy to calculate. You add the number of the run differential, which was discussed earlier, and then you add the SOS to it. The Braves SRS is 0.7 (0.7+0), while the Nationals have an SRS of -0.2 (-0.3+0.1). The Braves rank as the 5th best team with the Rockies in this measurement, while the Nationals rank in a two-way tie with Milwaukee for 18th. SRS is the system I like to use to see how good teams are. Using this system, the Braves are the cream of the crop in the NL East, as everyone else in their division is ranked under 17th.

The Braves have edged the Nationals in every category except luck, which is something everyone would like to be winning. The Braves luck has been average, while the Nationals have been one of the luckiest teams in baseball. I imagine that Nationals will play better, and their luck will go back down, but it’s important that the Braves try to capitalize on the Nationals poor play.

It’s easy to get ahead of ourselves as the Braves are struggling, but slumps and skids are no way to judge a team. The overall product can’t really be identified this early in the season. Slumps and skids can reveal a false product. Granted, numbers do not always check out, but they take into account the skids that teams fall into, something the average fan does not. It’s easy to feel disheartened by the Braves play of late, but the numbers say that they are still one of the elite teams in baseball.

Jordan Schafer had a great game for the Braves and was the catalyst for the offense.

The Braves, 3-7 in their last 10 games entering Monday, have struggled mightily on their cold road trip. They lost three of four to Pittsburgh and were swept mercilessly by Detroit. With the Nationals looming, Braves fans felt uneasy about the direction this team was heading entering play against their toughest opponent within the division.

Today’s hero was Jordan Schafer. Yes, the same Jordan Schafer who fizzled out of prospect status, got sent to the Astros, and now is back with the Braves as a 5th outfielder. The Braves have had an awful go of it with their lead off hitters since the beginning of the season. Schafer reached base four times in four appearances, including three walks. He was the table setter for the Braves 3-2 win over the Washington Nationals. » Continue reading “Braves Halt Losing Streak”

With the Braves second baseman under performing, how realistic is the trading of Dan Uggla?

Dan Uggla should have his bags packed and on standby because he’s going to get traded, right? Um, not exactly.

Let’s not get too hasty in trying to trade Dan Uggla right now.

Sure, Dan Uggla has not been the perennial .260/.350/.470 ball player that he was in Florida, but I’m going to make a case that he has still been a productive ball player in Atlanta.

The first reason is that he gets on base. Last year, Dan Uggla led all of baseball with 94 walks. That led to an OBP (on-base percentage) of .348, which was third best on the team behind Prado (2nd) and some guy named Larry (Chipper Jones). Sure, he hit .220 and didn’t have at least 27 home runs in a year in his MLB career, but is a guy not allowed to have a bad year (or two)? I remember in 2004 when Chipper Jones hit .248 and people were saying that he had lost it as quickly as Dale Murphy did. Dan Uggla is no Chipper Jones and will never be, but the point is that bad years happen to ball players. » Continue reading “So the Braves Should Trade Dan Uggla, right?”

Kevin Pate
I’m sure that no one wants to relive the Atlanta Braves poor showing tonight. Fredi Gonzalez was none too pleased and had this to say after the game, courtesy of David O’Brien‘s twitter account:

This was #Braves manager’s postgame presser: “He was pretty good, and we weren’t. And that’s about it, boys. That’s all I’ve got for you.”

— David O’Brien (@ajcbraves) April 27, 2013

» Continue reading “Atlanta Braves: The Good, the Mad, and the Double Bag UGLY…”

Kevin Pate helps us look for Atlanta’s hide and seek offense.

The Braves just dropped three of four games to the Pittsburgh Pirates, owners of 21 consecutive losing seasons. In those four losses, they managed to score just four runs. Is it time to worry about the offense? Not quite.

The Braves, recently, have been the recipients of bad luck. The biggest receiver of this unfortunate luck has been Jason Heyward, who has a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) of .114. Considering that Heyward’s career BABIP is around .300, it’s safe to assume that you should expect Heyward to gain about .200 higher in average, and expect a few more of those flyouts to turn into homeruns.

The Braves walk into Monday’s game with a BABIP of .275, which is good for 23rd in the league. Despite that statistic, » Continue reading “Where is the Braves Offense?”

After the Braves 10th straight win last night, they turn around for a 12:10 ET first pitch and head out of town again. That’s roughly a 20 hour home stand. It is probably in Atlanta’s best interest to keep moving along. Who knows, they may never lose, or they could lose today. Just keep your eyes open, and enjoy every minute of the ride.

Did you know that three of the five Braves starting pitchers have higher batting averages than Jason Heyward? Did you realize that Heyward is 4 for 39 for an .103 average, but he has seven walks and seven runs? Did you also realize that Heyward, B.J. Upton, and Dan Uggla have more strike outs than hits, and they are all batting under.175? » Continue reading “The Hits Keep Coming…For Some of the Braves”

There’s just something about Opening Day.

Here it is, Opening Day! The new Braves take the field versus National League East nemesis Philadelphia. Ready or not, Braves fans will have an infield without Chipper Jones, someone other than Brian McCann behind the plate, and no daily game of “Where on the Field is Martin Prado”.

What is the same is the old reliable Tim Hudson on the mound. At 37 years old, you can count on Hudson commanding the cutter, just as you can count on the “War Eagle” for the former Auburn star. Hudson has lead by example since joining the Braves in 2005. Do not mistake his laid back nature and often comical interviews for lack of killer instinct. Anyone that has watched the veteran compete knows that while he may have us laughing of the field, on the field there are no laughing matters. (Well, there was that time he fell off the mound versus Baltimore. As someone who frequently embarrasses myself in similar manners, if you cannot laugh at yourself, you are the only one not laughing.) » Continue reading “Braves Opening Day- Something Old, Something New”