Don’t Panic. See, the button even says it. // image Jim Linwood via flickr

On May 1, 2012, the Giants were 12-11, four and a half games back of the first place Dodgers and in fourth place, with a run differential of +3.

Today, May 1, 2013, the Giants are 15-12, just one game back of the first place Rockies and tied with the Diamondbacks, and a game and a half up on the fourth place Dodgers, with a run differential of +4.

From another angle, through 27 games in 2012, the Giants were 13-14, five games back of the first place Dodgers with Arizona and Colorado just half a game behind, a +2 run differential, and just one win removed from fourth place, a negative run differential, and a four game losing streak after being swept at home by the Marlins. The Marlins. I was at the last game of that series and it was pretty miserable, let me tell you.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the Giants are somehow guaranteed to have the season go their way because they’re a bit better off than they were at this time last year. As we should all be painfully aware by now, baseball is strange, unpredictable, sometimes cruel, and basically always capricious. Everything could click into place, mechanical issues and nagging injuries could resolve themselves, and the Giants could go on to win 100+ games, or the bottom could fall out and they could end up missing the playoffs, there’s no way to know right now. But that’s exactly the point, there’s basically no way to know right now. This time last year Angel Pagan looked like he might never hit again and that he was an awful fit for the lead-off spot without any obvious replacement, most of us were still quietly praying that none of Buster Posey’s limbs fell off, and Pablo Sandoval was about to miss yet another month-plus with his second hamate fracture in as many years. And yet, the t-shirt currently sitting next to me in a pile of laundry waiting to be folded tells me that the Giants went on to win the division comfortably and then win the World Series.

Am I expecting the Giants to win the World Series again? Not expecting, no. Repeating is incredibly hard and there are so many things that have to go right that it would be the height of arrogance and probably delusion to be certain. But saying that I’m as close to certain as is reasonable that they’ll have a good season? That I’m comfortable doing. Be frustrated when they play like they’re literally wearing clown shoes and trying to catch the ball with one of those plastic squirty flowers, wonder what mechanical glitch is causing Matt Cain to periodically go all dingerpalooza on us after pitching well for a few innings, but the panicking, hair tearing out, shrieking, wailing, lighting yourself on fire and walking into traffic level I’ve seen from some quarters lately just makes me sad. Not for the team, because I really do believe the team is going to be fine. Matt Cain will figure himself out, Buster Posey is being Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford is inexplicably also being Buster Posey, Pablo’s looking svelter to the general public with each murdered baseball and diving stop, and Madison Bumgarner is slidering and cuttering and sluttering the competition into small pieces on the regular. Hell, for that matter, Tim Lincecum is looking more like someone you don’t cringe at the thought of taking the ball and Hunter Pence seems to be swinging it better with his moulting cycle finished and his new carapace in place. But it makes me sad that people aren’t able to enjoy any of the good or interesting things because they’re so busy rending their garments.

There are good things afoot, but only if you don’t panic.

The best season by a shortstop in San Francisco Giants history, by WAR, was Rich Aurilia in 2001, when he recorded 6.7 WAR on the strength of 146 OPS+ and above-average defense. Aurilia is also likely the best shortstop over his Giants career, since the franchise moved from New York. At any rate it’s a relatively close race between Aurilia (who’s next best season, by WAR, was the previous one, with 2.4) and Chris Speier, who has the second- and third-best seasons by a shortstop in SF Giants history. Jose Uribe probably is third. Point is, the franchise does not exactly have a long tradition of outstanding shortstops.

(Photo by SD Dirk/flickr)

After his home run in the 4th inning on Apr. 16, Brandon Crawford is hitting .304/.407/.500 in 54 plate appearances. Now, in truth, there is nothing we can read into that. Voros’ Law states that anyone can do just about anything in 60 plate appearances. However, I’ll be darned if it hasn’t been a good deal of fun so far. Brandon Crawford is an exceedingly fun player to root for, in no small part because he is a defensive wizard. In the years I have been a Giants fan, I have seen the following shortstop (in chronological order): Royce Clayton (distant past), Aurilia, Omar Vizquel, Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria, and Crawford. Of that group, Vizquel was the best defender — he did win 2 Gold Gloves as a Giant and the defensive stats, unreliable as they are, back up the assertion that he was still a superior defensive shortstop. But Crawford isn’t far behind. I’d say that Vizquel had slightly better hands and instincts, but Crawford has an enormously better arm. And as much as I love a guy that does nothing but mash taters — Blogmother Mac teases me about this on Twitter constantly — Crawford’s defense is immensely fun to watch. » Continue reading “The Emergence of Brandon Crawford”

Okay you shouldn’t feel bad, but you should reevaluate methods and reassess your conclusions probably.

If you’re an analytically inclined baseball fan, April truly is the cruelest month. Okay so yeah, I admit that T.S. Eliot wasn’t actually talking about the month (or more) long battle of wills between people quoting month (sometimes only weeks) long data samples as if they mean something and the people screaming “small sample size!” into the yawning void. That said, it can be difficult to know when the “roots that clutch” are solid enough to start to trust what the statistics are telling you, but we (and some much smarter people from other parts of the internets), are here to help.

There are a few key things to understand about advanced metrics, especially early in the year. » Continue reading “April Numbers and You: Care and Feeding of Early Season Statistics”

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Hunter Pence ties the game in the 9th.

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And that was the ballgame.

As I sit down to write this post, Tim Lincecum is taking the mound to pitch against the Colorado Rockies. Catching him is Hector Sanchez. Now, as you may be aware, Sanchez has emerged as Lincecum’s “personal catcher,” which is to say that he always catches when Tim pitches. Never mind that the reigning National League MVP also plays catcher for the Giants, it’s worth noting that Sanchez isn’t very good. He isn’t very good at hitting, playing defense, or running the bases. Here is a chart of all of Lincecum’s starts since the beginning of 2012 (h/t Twitter user @carmerkiew). As you can plainly see, Sanchez has started 17 of Lincecum’s last 21 starts, with 3 of the 4 non-Sanchez starts coming when Hector was on the DL.

Sanchez’s hitting woes could take up an entire separate post, but I wanted to focus on one very specific part of Sanchez’s game that he struggles with – framing pitches. Now, this has been a somewhat popular subject recently, having been the subject of posts by Baseball Prospectus’ Sam Miller, and McCovey Chronicles’ Grant Brisbee. Both articles are excellent, and you should read them both if you haven’t. The BP article has lots of GIF’s if your interested, as well as the nitty gritty details as to some of the reasons why Sanchez struggles with this particular skill. In short, the key to getting more calls on borderline pitches is to be as quiet with your movements as possible. Don’t move the glove or your head around too much and you’ll get your fair share of borderline calls. Sanchez, however, is the opposite of quiet. His head especially is all over the place, as you can see in the GIF’s in the Miller article.

Research from 2008 came to the conclusion that the run difference between a called strike and a called ball was 0.13 runs.  Now, that may not sound like much, but pitchers throw around 3000 pitches per season. In the Brisbee article I linked to above, Grant notes that for every 27.3 pitches thrown to Sanchez, Hector loses a strike call he should have gotten. Over the course of a 3000 pitch season that’s 109.9 missed strike calls – or over 14 runs lost per season. Now, obviously, this isn’t taking everything into account. For instance, I didn’t look at the number of pitches that should have been called strikes that Sanchez successfully framed.

That being said, digging yourself into a 14-run hole before taking all the good things into account is less than ideal. And the fact of the matter is right now Lincecum needs all the help he can get. As I write this he’s given up 6 runs in 5 innings with 4 walks, bringing his season total up to 11 in 10 innings pitched. He walked Rockies pitcher Juan Nicasio – twice. His fastball is dead-straight and getting crushed, and his breaking pitches can’t find the zone (luckily the Rockies are swinging at them anyway).

And, of course, there’s a measure of overreaction going on here. Sanchez’s struggles last game were historic for him – 9 pitches called balls that should have been strikes is a career high – and indeed in the game I’m watching right now he’s been better. But if Lincecum is going to continue to trot out there every 5th day, and as long as Sanchez continues to catch him, this is something to keep an eye on.

Short post coming but this thing just happened in the Rockies-Giants game that drove me mad. In the bottom of the sixth with none out, Gregor Blanco and Hector Sanchez (!!!!) both walked, followed by a Brandon Crawford opposite field home run. As if a Hector Sanchez walk (his second of the game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) and a Crawford oppo taco weren’t crazy enough, it gets better. Nick Noonan and Angel Pagan both single, giving us runners on first and second and zero out.

(Flickr/sjsharktank)

Now, at this moment, using the 2012 run environment – since the 2013 season is still too young to have accurate data – the Giants should be expected to score 1.44 additional runs this inning. The next hitter was Marco Scutaro. Now, Scutaro has been struggling. He admitted as much to the beat reporters, saying he’s been pressing a bit trying to get going this season. His .167/.212/.167 line certainly reflects that. And, naturally, he sac bunted. I hate the sac bunt. In nearly every scenario, the sac bunt lowers the number of runs a team can expect to score. Indeed, that was the case in this scenario – the run expectancy with runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out in 2012 was 1.29, meaning that play was worth -0.15 runs to the Giants.

Here’s the crazy part though – the Rockies followed up the sac bunt with an even stupider strategic decision. They intentionally walked Pablo Sandoval to get to Hunter Pence. The run expectancy with the bases loaded and one out last year was 1.54. The intentional walk raised the run expectancy 0.25 runs, and the Giants now sat at 0.10 runs higher than at the start of this little dance.

So what happened? Pence singled sharply to right, scoring Noonan, and the Brandon Belt grounded into a double play. So after all that, the strategy paid off for the Rockies – the Giants scored 0.54 runs fewer than expected.

This is a good example of process vs. results. Even though the results worked out from the Rockies perspective, a look into the numbers shows that the process was flawed. On one hand, it was counterproductive to sac bunt with Scutaro – no matter how much he’s struggling, he’s a decent threat to get a hit there. On the other hand, it was even more counterproductive to walk Sandoval – a double play ball isn’t something you can count on, especially with two of the Giants’ best hitters due up. The basic lesson here is this: outs are precious and you shouldn’t give them away. You shouldn’t give away opportunities to record them on defense, either.

If you’ve ever fired up the Twitter machine within the last few months to check out what the Giants fanbase is saying, you’ll likely have seen a prevalent theme in a lot of tweets: Pablo Sandoval’s weight.

Cries of “he’s too fat to play baseball” usually are the first thing seen when you check in on what Giants fans and media have to say.

Here’s some annoying commentary from San Francisco Chronicle sports columnist Ann Killion.

Sometimes, it comes from writers of other teams, too.

Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post Dispatch spews some offensive and unwarranted venom toward Sandoval’s way.

Backhanded compliments, playground bullying, it’s all there. None of it is okay. » Continue reading “Pablo Sandoval And The #FATCHAT Problem”

Did y’all hear how utility infielder-turned-first baseman Joaquin Arias went 2-for-4 in last night’s game against the Dodgers?

TEAM ARIAS. Or. Well. No. (Flickr/Aunti Juli)

In a total “NO WAI U GUISE” moment, Bruce Bochy had Arias play first. Brandon Belt was out with the flu, so I guess there was no other choice. Well, Bochy could’ve had Buster Posey play first with Hector Sanchez catching, so Arias playing first base was probably the smart decision.

Also somewhat shocking that Bochy didn’t take advantage of getting Sanchez into a game there, but I digress.

But if there is a talking head out there saying that Bochy should platoon Arias with Belt, so help me, I’m firing all of them. All the talking heads.

It’s two games into the season. Belt is sick with the flu and Arias is a utility guy who, well, was utilized as a backup.

But do you know what two games into the season means? » Continue reading “Joaquin Arias: FIRST BASEMAN OF TEH FUTUREZ”

We’ll be seeing a lot more of this. (Image via the fine folks at McCovey Chronicles.)

Just read that headline folks. Soak it in. Revel in it. Maybe roll around in it like it’s some sort of really good smelling bubble bath. Buster Posey is ours and will be for a good long time.

Per the Giants via Alex Pavlovic of the Mercury News (as well as all the usual suspects), Posey and the Giants have agreed to an eight year, $167M extension beyond the previously negotiated $8M contract for 2013, plus a potential club option for 2022, which would bring the total value of the deal to $189M, not including performance bonuses. The deal also includes a full no-trade clause. The deal was, of course, announced during the annual Playa Ball luncheon while Buster was signing autographs for adorable children, further convincing all of us that he really is a super hero. Has anyone seen him and Captain America in the same place at the same time? I rest my case.

If ever there was a time to feel secure in forking over for one of the really nice jerseys, this is it, folks.

Nick Noonan has been brought back to big-league camp after the demotion of Kensuke Tanaka and Wilson Valdez’s release. Tony Abreu continues to sit out with a quad injury, so Noonan appears to have the inside track at the utility infielder position if Abreu has to start the season on the DL. In light of his opportunity to start the season on the MLB roster, I decided to highlight him for a prospect profile.

(flickr/John Murden)

Personal information: Noonan was born on May 4th, 1989, making this his age 24 season. He was drafted 32nd overall in 2007 out of Parker HS in San Diego. Want to feel old? He was a compensation draft pick the Giants got from the Mets when the Mets signed Moises Alou. He’s listed at 6’1″ tall and 170 lbs, and he’s from Poway, CA. » Continue reading “Prospect Profile: Nick Noonan”