Looking for news on Yu Darvish? Join the club. I’ve been glued to Twitter for the past 12 hours, reading into tweet after tweet after tweet.
This morning, MLB announced that four teams placed bids for the right to negotiate with the Japanese-Iranian pitcher; the Cubs, Rangers, Yankees, and your own Blue Jays.
Of course, it’s no surprise the Jays would be in on Darvish – he fits the team perfectly. He’s 25; young and controllable. The team has stated, again and again, that they’re not interested in building a one-year success. They want to win, and they want to win for years. In order to have a shot at the AL East, the Jays desperately need a top-of-the-rotation starter to work with Ace-du-jour Ricky Romero.
So, what’s a “Whopper of a bid?”
In 2006, Daisuke Matsuzaka’s posting fee was just over $51 million, with a contract through 2012 worth at least $52 million. Injuries have plagued Matsuzaka for the past 3 seasons, and it’s widely believed that the Red Sox simply paid too much to bring in a starter unaccustomed to the 5 day rotation of the MLB.
Does Matsuzaka’s experience impact the bidding here? It doesn’t sound like it, if any of the buzz is to be believed. I keep hearing “surprisingly high” and “eye popping” and I can’t help but think that for any bid to be a surprise, it must surpass all historical precedent.
Personally, I’m guessing the winning bid here is somewhere in the low $60s. Let’s say $62, just for kicks and giggles. Successfully winning the bid and negotiating a contract with Yu Darvish could easily place the team in the $120 million range.
Is Yu Darvish worth $120 million to the Blue Jays?
Even if we get to see Darvish in action this Spring in Dunedin, the answer will still be unclear.
If I’ve learned anything in baseball, it’s that every move is a risky one. Players disappoint. Injuries happen. Attitudes get in the way of success.
The best any team can do is be informed; do research, consider fit, and if that risk feels acceptable, take a leap.
But for now, for at least a few hours longer, we wait.