It’s that time…you know, the time when I get to start burying myself in the numbers from the 2011 season and trying to figure out exactly what went wrong. I’m a science geek, after all, and one of the things that keeps me addicted to baseball is the stats. In my crazy noggin’ it seems there just HAS to be a statistic to explain it all. There’s a magic number that once I find it, will explain the horrid season.

I know, I know…this season was a long time coming and made over the course of a lot of bad decisions and then bad playing and then more bad decisions and then the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball jacking around with a potential new owner. I know all of this, intellectually, but my head has a hard time convincing my broken heart.

So we’ll blame the stat analysis on the heart and a little less on the head this year.

What’s below is a graphic representation of the Battery Combinations from the 2011 season. For those unfamiliar with the term, Battery simply put is the pitcher and catcher together. I looked up why they call it that (again, GEEK!) and according to Wikipedia:

The use of the word ‘battery’ in baseball was first coined by Henry Chadwick in the 1860s in reference to the firepower of a team’s pitching staff and inspired by the artillery batteries then in use in the American Civil War.^[2] Later, the term evolved to indicate the combined effectiveness of pitcher and catcher.

Who knew? Back to the graphic below. It shows pitching appearances and which catcher caught each pitcher. You will find trends in the season and can start to see how Brad Mills makes catcher decisions in the lineup.

So what I notice right off the bat is that Brett Myers and JA Happ were caught almost exclusively by Humberto Quintero. Q was the senior catcher on the team this year and has a penchant for catching base stealers, so it’s not surprising we’d see him used more often. He’s also a better hitter than the other choices available. The only time we see other combinations with those pitchers is essentially the time that Q was out on the DL with that high ankle sprain – which I should mention that he got because he’s an awesome catcher that wouldn’t back down.

Now, you can’t expect Q to catch everyone all the time, so you see Wandy Rodriguez caught almost exclusively by the “non-Q” all season, whether that was JR Towles or Carlos Corporan at the time. Quintero is thrown in from time to time, and my guess would be that was Mills making decisions based on the opponent sometimes, not the pitcher.

We also see that Bud Norris’ time on the mound is split pretty closely between Q and the “non-Q” catcher. It made sense that Aneury Rodriguez and Jordan Lyles were caught by Corporan more than Quintero as that’s who they threw to in the minors. If you’re going to start a 20 year old kid, it’s probably a good idea to have him pitch initially into a glove and toward a guy he’s comfortable with already. But you notice that as the season progresses, Lyles is caught by Q. My guess? Lyles got to know him. Comfort didn’t play as big a role in the decision at this point, rather putting in the best catcher that night was more important.

What I find interesting about this is that if I had to name the Astros two most vulnerable positions in terms of lack of depth this season, I’d say pitching and catching. We all know this starting rotation had about 2 1/2 actual starting rotation guys on it. And with Jason Castro out for the whole season this year, the catcher position was thin and our catchers took an incredible beating. Were there combinations and timing of combinations that would have been better? Oh how I wish I could say yes, but frankly, the team was just thin in these pivotal spots this year. No way around that.

There’s nothing magical about any of this information, it’s more fascinating than awe-inspiring. It’s interesting to see. If you watch a lot of games these are trends that you probably already picked up on, but it’s nice to have a graphic representation of it if nothing else.

I promise not to shove things like this down your throat all season, but I will admit that I like it. I can’t help it, it’s the geek in me.

*Thanks to Tara Franey, the lead writer for C-ing Red, the Aerys Sports home of the Cincinnati Reds, for the great chart!

Terri Schlather (AGirlintheSouth) is the Senior Houston Astros Writer for Aerys Sports. You can read her Astros blog at www.talesfromthejuicebox.com, email her at agirlinthesouth@gmail.com, or follow her on twitter @agirlinthesouth.

I see bloggers do this all the time – they have you ask them questions and then they answer them. I figured since it was an off day it would be fun. Tell me if you like it and if you do, we’ll make it a regular thing. Keep in mind the questions don’t have to be Astros related at all.

Here goes…

1.  How is David Carpenter doing? Well, by stats alone he’s now 0-2, thrown 17 innings for Houston with 18 hits, 5 earned runs, 1 home run, 1 walk and 15 strikeouts. Oh, and he got his first SAVE on Sunday night against the Giants! I’d say Mr. Carpenter is doing quite well as a middle reliever (and one time closer) here in H-town.

2. What is the number 1 key to the Astros success, in your opinion? I have to pick one?!?! Okay, if it’s just one, then right now, the key is the farm system. I’ll explain it the way my Italian mother does. If you want to cook a great meal every night, you use up the pantry and produce items you have in your kitchen. If you keep cooking every day without replenishing your supplies, then your meals will start to go downhill, simply because you don’t have the right ingredients to pull from to make anything. » Continue reading “Astros Off Day Fun: You Asked, I Answered”

This morning someone asked me, “Can the Astros be fixed?” It’s a good question. The club is going on a handful of years of less than stellar performance, so it stands to reason that some repairs and renovations are needed and I don’t think that’s a surprise to anyone. But can it be done? I think it can. Will it happen soon? I don’t think so.

Why do I think the Astros can be fixed? There are several reasons.

#1 -The farm system has been struggling in recent years and although it’s not in tip-top shape as of right now, there are indicators that things are moving in the right direction. If you look just at AAA OKC, you’ll find a few pretty decent players. Jordon Lyles is the guy that’s gotten the most press and he definitely has big league potential. There’s one heck of an arm on the RHP and he’s been performing rather well in OKC (with the exception of yesterday’s rather rocky start). As April ended he was 1-2 with a 3.76 ERA with 19 Ks and 6 BBs in five starts. He threw 13 consecutive scoreless in innings in just two of those starts and he leads the club in innings pitched. Then there’s Koby Clemens. Koby’s .284 BA, 5 2B, 5 HR, 18 RBI in 20 games in April are nothing to sneeze at. He leads the Redhawks in homeruns and RBIs while playing mostly at 1B this season. Then there’s Carlos Corporan who has managed to throw out 7 of 12 attempted basestealers and has only had 1 error in 17 games that he’s caught this year. So there’s some talent up the road in Oklahoma. And if you know anything about minor league ball it’s that talent in the farm system is imperative if you want your big league club to improve. So although there needs to be more money siphoned into the draft budget and it still needs building, the farm system is improving. This is a great indicator that the Astros can and will improve with time.

#2 – Brad Mills and Ed Wade are not afraid of making changes and making them quickly. We’ve seen it all season as he keeps tweaking the lineup, the starting rotation and the bullpen. For example, Angel Sanchez is still getting playing time even with the return of Clint Barmes because Sanchez earned it while Barmes was on the DL. Also, despite Mills’ hopes that Nelson Figueroa would improve on last year’s reliever stats when moved to the starting rotation, he didn’t and Mills didn’t hesitate to move him back to the bullpen. After a couple of poor showings as relief, the team designated Figgy for assignment yesterday and is bringing up Sergio Escalona to fill his void. Escalona will join Abad as the only other lefty in the bullpen. The bullpen will, I’m certain, see more changes in the near future as it’s been a major downfall in recent weeks. At least 8 games have been lost specifically because of the failed efforts of relief and closing pitchers. This is an area that needs major renovation and fortunately is an area that is relatively easy to change on the fly during the regular season, so there’s potential improvement that can come from the bullpen.

#3 – Completion of the sale of the team is reportedly imminent. According to KTRK, the ABC Houston affiliate, all that’s left for Drayton McLane and Jim Crane to do in order to finalize a deal that will result in the Astros selling for an estimated $680 million is to dot the i’s and cross the t’s. Bear in mind that even when that part’s over, the MLB owners will have to approve Crane, and the word on the street is that it won’t necessarily be smooth sailing. We can anticipate a couple more months with McLane at the helm. But, a sale is still on the horizon. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – with a new owner will probably come big changes. Will we see those this season? It’s not likely as I expect he’ll get some input from Ed Wade as far as any acquisitions Wade’s wanted but hasn’t had budget approval for, so we’ll likely see a small amount of movement in the 2011 season, but I think if Crane’s in place before the draft we could see aggressive spends in that department. It won’t result in overnight wins, but will effect the longterm health of the club.

So be patient Astros fans. The team will get there. It won’t be this season and it may not be next season either, but there’s change a-coming. The Astros can, and hopefully will be fixed.

Terri Schlather (AGirlintheSouth) is the Senior Houston Astros Reporter for Aerys Sports. You can read her Astros blog at www.talesfromthejuicebox.com, email her at agirlinthesouth@gmail.com, or follow her on twitter @agirlinthesouth.

Well hello Mr. Mills, it seems you like the way I think. Remember back when I mentioned that maybe pitching was the Astros biggest current problem? Remember when I griped that Nelson Figueroa shouldn’t be a starter? Yea, I know, which time. Mills seems to agree now.

According to MLB.com, Mills is moving Figueroa (8.28 ERA) out of the starting rotation and putting back in the bullpen. In the 5th spot will be Aneury Rodriguez, who currently has a 6.75 ERA in 8 innings during which he threw 7 strikeouts. He’s never started in an MLB game, but he’ll get his first shot this week on Tuesday in Cincinnati.

In discussing his decision to return Figgy back to the bullpen, Mills said, “He’s going to really strengthen our bullpen by doing this…Figgy is so viable and go short, long, middle or anything we need.”

Figueroa will be available in the bullpen starting Saturday.

As I type this, I’m in my usual spot in section 208 at Minute Maid Park Hoping Bud Norris can lead these guys to their first series win. It’s top of the 3rd and the Astros are winning 1-0 and so far Norris has allowed no hits for the Brewers!

Here’s hoping!

So, another series, another chance to finally win one, another time coming up short. It’s not that the Astros are botching entire games, they aren’t, but at some point in most games, the wheels just completely fall off.

Prime example? Last night’s sixth inning. Yep, that inning that lasted about 3 days? That one where the Cards scored 9 runs…it was painful. Up until that point, and really the whole game, the Astros had been hitting pretty well, even Lee managed a double last night. Wallace was on fire as he has been of late. But the pitching? The pitching just downright stunk.

It’s not a secret that I’m not a fan of Figueroa as a starter, but he actually managed to give up only 2 walks and no hits or runs through 3 with some help from the defense. But in the 6th, he just imploded allowing 3 straight hits and 2 runs. Mills tosses Abad into the game whose first batter, Berkman, hits a 3 run homer. It just went downhill from there. Fulchino then replaced Abad allowing 4 hits and 4 runs before Del Rosario came in to replace him. Finally a third out put everyone out of their misery.

Now, the bullpen hasn’t had a night like this yet, really. Overall they’ve been pretty dependable, but with the starters not lasting, the team’s been relying on the bullpen a little too heavily. The wear and tear of that strategy showed itself loud and clear last night. This team, even without power hitters doing much can get guys on base. They’re even moving around the bases fairly well, but what they need desperately is better pitching. If I could, I’d shout it from the rooftops.

Was there a bright spot? Absolutely. In fact there were a couple. First, hitting. The Astros aren’t hitting a lot of long balls, but the whole lineup, with only a couple of exceptions, is hitting pretty consistently. And Brett Wallace…oh BDub….he’s on quite a streak. He’s now hitting .373 and although they’re not flying out of the park, he is producing his fair shar of doubles (9 to date).

Defensively, the team fought hard. In game 2 of this series they managed to turn an amazing five, yes 5, double plays. No one can accuse them of rolling over and giving up. Speaking of not giving up, I think they’re starting to gain some confidence, even with the losses. They’re learning that they have the ability to battle back and they’re doing it…just not quite soon enough to win many games.

So, they’ll welcome the Brewers to town tonight for 3 games and we’ll get a chance to see the first 3 starting pitchers take the mound. Hopefully, they can take the lessons learned over the past week and put them to good use.

Finally, Clint Barmes is coming back to Htown, while we wave goodbye to Joe Inglett who we’ll have to wait and see if after he clears waivers will end up at AAA OKC or be released or traded.

I’ll be cheering on the boys from section 208 tonight and Sunday as will the weeone- and she seems to bit a bit of a good luck charm for the Astros, so let’s hope that holds!

The game’s not even over as I write this. The Astros are down 14-6 in the top of the 8th and you may say I’m a naysayer for deciding this game is over, but I like to live in the real world. The Astros don’t recover in 2 innings from an eight run deficit. Not this year’s Astros, that’s for sure. *** And sure enough, no recovery happened as the ‘stros lose it 14-7.

This game has not just been painful, it’s been long. Nothing like a horrible game that will not end, but I suppose if you’re a Brewer fan it’s a great game that keeps on giving. The list of things that went wrong tonight for Houston is long, too long. I’m not even sure where to begin. The pitching was bad. The hitting was bad. The defense was bad. There were times when I wondered if I had accidentally changed the channel and was watching a little league team. Oh, and “the Brads”, Arnsberg and Mills, were both ejected in the 2nd inning when Arnie made comments about the homeplate ump’s calls and Mills trotted out to defend Arnie. I had hoped that Mills’ absence would be as helpful as it was when he served his 1 game suspension and the Astros won, but alas that would not be the case.

Remember when I said that Angel Sanchez should stay around a while? I stand corrected. The way he’s been missing double plays and having his own little “Error-Fest 2011″ (he’s managed 5 already this year), coupled with the fact that his hitting is declining as the season progresses (.274) makes me long for Clint Barmes’ return. Fortunately, Barmes is going to start rehabing in the minors on Monday, so we won’t have to wait long to hopefully see some better defense played at the middle infield. Although Sanchez didn’t have an error tonight, both Bill Hall and Carlos Lee did. There were missed opportunities everywhere.

Shall we talk about the pitching? I know I keep railing on Figueroa, but tonight’s 6 earned runs (2HRs) in 4 innings along with 5 walks just proves my point. Mr. Mills, how long will you let this continue? The bullpen wasn’t any better allowing an astounding 11 hits and 8  runs. It was just ugly all around. The Brewers were hitting hard and consistently, scoring in 6 of 8 innings they took the plate.

Michael Bourn hit well tonight, going 3-5 with 1 Run and 1 RBI. He’s now at .319 on the season. Bourn also added a stolen base to take his season total to 9. Brett Wallace (.313) is finding his groove going 3-5 with 1 Run and 1 RBI. Bill Hall almost got a homer when he hit one that barely missed clearing the wall, allowing him a triple. We also saw Carlos Lee manage a double. But regardless of that hit, Lee’s still only hitting .225. I cannot for the life of me figure out why he’s still hitting clean up with a batting average like that. I’d really like to see Mills move Wallace into that fourth batting position to see if he can help more than Lee has. I know Wallace’s RBI count isn’t outstanding (7) but when you look at the on base percentages of the batters ahead of him, is it surprising? I think if he’s put in a position where he can actually be productive, he will be. Anyone who’s watched his progress since he was brought up last season would agree that he just keeps improving and is showing more and more confidence at the plate. I think he’s earned a shot at a better batting position.

The problems with this team seem to be compounding as we move along in the season. Tomorrow’s continuation of this series will see Brett Myers starting for the Astros. If there’s a chance for Houston to take a game during their stay in Milwaukee, Saturday will be their best shot.

With last night’s 4-2 loss to the Padres, the Astros stand at 4-10. But in this series, it’s all tied up. Tonight Nelson Figueroa will take the mound in his third start since being named the 5th man in the Houston starting rotation. I haven’t been shy about my opinion on Figgy as a starter, I don’t understand it. So far this season, he’s 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA. Ouch. He’s thrown a mere 9.1 innings but has allowed a staggering 19 hits and 15 runs. Opposing batters are hitting .396 against him. Not a great start. Not what the team needs. And it’s been painful to watch.

I know that with the state of the Astros Farm system, we’re rebuilding it, that this is not a club that’s going to be a true contender for several years to come. I understand the idea of sacrificing now for the longterm good and I’m supportive of that. But, wow. Figueroa’s the best we could do?

Last season Fig pitched really well, no doubt (7-4, 3.29 ERA). But was last year his peak? Was last year a fluke? Or can Figgy bring it again? I personally think when you look at his career as a whole the likelihood that we’ll see last year’s stats out of him is pretty low. He’s a 36 year old veteran who’s time is likely passed. I’m not sure how long Brad Mills will let a pitcher struggle before he makes a change, and I’m not saying he should do it yet, but the thought’s bound to be in the back of his head by now. We’ve got some potential starters in the bullpen (Aneury Rodriguez) and some potential in AAA (Jordan Lyles, Ryan Rowland-Smith). I still maintain that Fig’s throwing for his life.

I’ll be sitting in Budweiser Patio tonight with the weeone and all the other Astros Tweeps (@astrostweeps) (that’s the twitter gang) and I’ll be cheering Figgy on, I promise, but I won’t be holding my breath.