It’s that time…you know, the time when I get to start burying myself in the numbers from the 2011 season and trying to figure out exactly what went wrong. I’m a science geek, after all, and one of the things that keeps me addicted to baseball is the stats. In my crazy noggin’ it seems there just HAS to be a statistic to explain it all. There’s a magic number that once I find it, will explain the horrid season.

I know, I know…this season was a long time coming and made over the course of a lot of bad decisions and then bad playing and then more bad decisions and then the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball jacking around with a potential new owner. I know all of this, intellectually, but my head has a hard time convincing my broken heart.

So we’ll blame the stat analysis on the heart and a little less on the head this year.

What’s below is a graphic representation of the Battery Combinations from the 2011 season. For those unfamiliar with the term, Battery simply put is the pitcher and catcher together. I looked up why they call it that (again, GEEK!) and according to Wikipedia:

The use of the word ‘battery’ in baseball was first coined by Henry Chadwick in the 1860s in reference to the firepower of a team’s pitching staff and inspired by the artillery batteries then in use in the American Civil War.^[2] Later, the term evolved to indicate the combined effectiveness of pitcher and catcher.

Who knew? Back to the graphic below. It shows pitching appearances and which catcher caught each pitcher. You will find trends in the season and can start to see how Brad Mills makes catcher decisions in the lineup.

So what I notice right off the bat is that Brett Myers and JA Happ were caught almost exclusively by Humberto Quintero. Q was the senior catcher on the team this year and has a penchant for catching base stealers, so it’s not surprising we’d see him used more often. He’s also a better hitter than the other choices available. The only time we see other combinations with those pitchers is essentially the time that Q was out on the DL with that high ankle sprain – which I should mention that he got because he’s an awesome catcher that wouldn’t back down.

Now, you can’t expect Q to catch everyone all the time, so you see Wandy Rodriguez caught almost exclusively by the “non-Q” all season, whether that was JR Towles or Carlos Corporan at the time. Quintero is thrown in from time to time, and my guess would be that was Mills making decisions based on the opponent sometimes, not the pitcher.

We also see that Bud Norris’ time on the mound is split pretty closely between Q and the “non-Q” catcher. It made sense that Aneury Rodriguez and Jordan Lyles were caught by Corporan more than Quintero as that’s who they threw to in the minors. If you’re going to start a 20 year old kid, it’s probably a good idea to have him pitch initially into a glove and toward a guy he’s comfortable with already. But you notice that as the season progresses, Lyles is caught by Q. My guess? Lyles got to know him. Comfort didn’t play as big a role in the decision at this point, rather putting in the best catcher that night was more important.

What I find interesting about this is that if I had to name the Astros two most vulnerable positions in terms of lack of depth this season, I’d say pitching and catching. We all know this starting rotation had about 2 1/2 actual starting rotation guys on it. And with Jason Castro out for the whole season this year, the catcher position was thin and our catchers took an incredible beating. Were there combinations and timing of combinations that would have been better? Oh how I wish I could say yes, but frankly, the team was just thin in these pivotal spots this year. No way around that.

There’s nothing magical about any of this information, it’s more fascinating than awe-inspiring. It’s interesting to see. If you watch a lot of games these are trends that you probably already picked up on, but it’s nice to have a graphic representation of it if nothing else.

I promise not to shove things like this down your throat all season, but I will admit that I like it. I can’t help it, it’s the geek in me.

*Thanks to Tara Franey, the lead writer for C-ing Red, the Aerys Sports home of the Cincinnati Reds, for the great chart!

Terri Schlather (AGirlintheSouth) is the Senior Houston Astros Writer for Aerys Sports. You can read her Astros blog at www.talesfromthejuicebox.com, email her at agirlinthesouth@gmail.com, or follow her on twitter @agirlinthesouth.

Last night was exactly why I love baseball. When the odds are against you, when your fans have already assumed a loss and left the ballpark, when no one thinks the last place team will come back from trailing 5-2 anything is possible. Brian Bogusevic made Astros fans believe just a wee bit more that this team can be good again.

After Brett Myers struggled early on against the Cubs (7.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 SOs, 1HR), it didn’t look very promising. Despite excellent bat swinging by Jimmy Paredes (2-4, 1RBI), JB Shuck (2-4, 2R), and Clint Barmes (2-3, 1R) my hopes weren’t high. In fact, the most exciting part of the game through 8 innings was Fox Sports Houston Announcer and former Astros pitcher, Jim Deshaies catching a foul ball in the 2nd, off the bat of Ryan Dempster. It was really not that exciting of a game.

The energy level drastically changed in the bottom of the ninth inning. With the Cubs leading 5-2 and historical “Astros Killer” Carlos Marmol on the mound, Jimmy Paredes lined out to left field. Shuck followed with a single to right field. It was at this point that many Houston fans rolled their eyes at the thought of hope. After all, how many times have the Astros had a chance this season only to watch it fly past?

Then Marmol threw a wild pitch allowing Shuck to head to 2nd and Barmes connected for a line drive to left sending him to 1st. Then Matt Downs, pinch hitting for Quintero walked. The adrenaline was rising at this point. The chat on twitter was feverish as fans could taste hope. The bases were loaded. Up next in the order? Pitcher Aneury Rodriguez.

Now Brad Mills makes some odd decisions from time to time that we all question, but his putting Brian Bogusevic in to pinch hit for the pitcher was what anyone would have done at that point. Then the unthinkable happened to the worst team in baseball. With the count at 2-2 and 1 out on the board, Brian Bogusevic hit only his 2nd home run of his major league career, but the most exciting one so far. A pinch hit walk-off grand slam. Astros win 6-5. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Wow, was all I could think, speak or write. It was quite the moment. It epitomized why I love baseball. One half inning of ball changed the whole game. One batter made all the difference. One ball hit 423 feet and an unexpected team wins. Man, I love this game. Bogie himself said it beautifully on twitter -

Perfectly stated.

Now, I would be remiss not to point out that Aneury Rodriguez got his first major league win last night. And he did it by retiring only 2 pitchers. Congratulations, Aneury, but I think you got upstaged last night and I would guess, you’re probably okay with that!

Terri Schlather (AGirlintheSouth) is the Senior Houston Astros Writer for Aerys Sports. You can read her Astros blog at www.talesfromthejuicebox.com, email her at agirlinthesouth@gmail.com, or follow her on twitter @agirlinthesouth.

This is the 3rd post today in which I’m taking a look at who we’ve got on the 25 man active roster as of right now. There’ve been lots of changes: trades, promotions, options. Keeping up with who is playing where and when is tough.

With that said, the pitching rotation and bullpen have been left largely unscathed by recent changes, so I’ve saved them for last. Likely you’re watching the game right now in which case, just skim over JA Happ. That poor guy is having a rough season, but even a rougher night tonight!

There’s no real introduction needed in this arena, so you’ll get their latest pitching stats and my thoughts. Here’s who’ve we got throwin’ heat-

The Pitchers

#67 David Carpenter – RHP, Bullpen, 0-1, 8.1 IP, 4.32 ERA, 9 SO – Carpenter is solid and I like him a lot. I think we’ll see him as a middle reliever for a while. I need to spend some more time “getting to know” him, but so far I really like what I see.

#66 Enerio Del Rosario – RHP, Bullpen, 0-2 (0 saves), 45 IP, 4.40 ERA, 26 SO – Rosario generally gets the job done. Batters get hits against him, but don’t often score. He’s been somewhat effective the way Mills has used him this season, but I wouldn’t call him a standout.

#52 Sergio Escalona – LHP, Bullpen, 2-1 (0 saves), 21.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 19 SO – I like Escalona’s SO numbers. I think he’s got a dependable arm for the bullpen and am always pleased to see him run out of the ‘pen. That’s a rare and nice feeling this season.

#30 JA Happ – LHP, Starting Rotation, 4-13, 115.1 IP, 6.01 ERA, 98 SO – If you look up “struggling” in the dictionary you will likely see JA Happ’s photo beside it this season. It’s up for debate if his success in Philly was a fluke and what we’re seeing now is the real Happ or if he’s just stuck in his head and struggling. Time’s the only thing that will tell, but we don’t know how long he’ll get to struggle despite generally decent run support.
#59 Wilton Lopez – RHP, Bullpen, 2-4 (0 saves), 49.1 IP, 2.74 ERA, 41 SO – This is another guy that’s been fairly dependable this season. All of the bullpend has struggled at one time or another, but Lopez has been relatively consistent.

#41 Jordan Lyles – RHP, Starting Rotation, 1-6, 74 IP, 4.36 ERA, 52 SO – Lyles just recently got his first MLB win. It was about time. This 20 year old kid has a serious future ahead of him. Most of his losses have not been due to his efforts as he’s pitched quality start after quality start only to be met with a bullpen disaster or no run support from his offense. Look for Lyles to be the future of Astros pitching.

#54 Mark Melancon – RHP, Closer, 6-3 (11 saves) 52.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 42 S) – Marky inherited the closer position just before mid-season when Brandon Lyons went on the DL. He’s been nothing short of great in this role. He seems unshakeable, even when counts are getting away from him and battles back exceptionally well. He’s exactly what I think of when I think of an effective closer. It will be interesting to see if he holds on to the role after Lyons returns.
#39 Brett Myers – RHP, Starting Rotation, 3-11, 147 IP, 4.65 ERA, 109 SO – Brett was nothing less than spectacular the second half of 2010 so the standard was high for him this season. It hasn’t been easy and he hasn’t often had run support to back him up, but he’s one who never gives in, gives up and can pitch very efficiently and get through a complete game with under 100 pitches. It will be interesting to see if the revitalization of the team with lots of rookies who are hitting well will effect his pitching.
#20 Bud Norris – RHP, Starting Rotation, 5-7, 135 IP, 3.47 ERA, 130 SO – Studly, Cudly Budly is a favortie of mine. If you read this blog often you already know that. I believe he will be one of the future stars of the ‘Stros. He’s a great pitcher who keeps RH batters to a .206 BA and generally gets a lot of strikeouts. He’s fun to watch and I think he’s probably the most defensive pitcher the Astros have right now.

#63 Aneury Rodriguez -RHP, Bullpen, 0-4 (0 saves), 67.2 IP, 4.79 ERA, 49 SO – I think this kid should be called The Aneurysm just because it’s fun. He spent a little, tiny bit of time in the starting rotation this season, but he’s coming into his own in the bullpen. Lately he’s part of a fraternity of pitching Rodriguez Astros who are generally dependable – not what I would have said aobut him 6 weeks ago. I hope his trend continues.
#43 Fernando Rodriguez – RHP, Bullpen, 2-1 (0 saves), 28.2 IP, 2.51 ERA, 33 SO – You read that right – Fernando’s a strikeout king in the bullpen. His K/9 is better than respectable. Again, he’s become dependable, especially against LHP who he keeps to a .182 BA.

#51 Wandy Rodriguez – LHP, Starting Rotation, 7-8, 127.0 IP, 3.69 ERA, 109 SO – Wandy’s got the best record in the current starting rotation and many were surprised he remained an Astro beyond the trade deadline. Rumor was the Yankees were interested, but the deal would have cost the ‘stros too much money. Wandy and Lyles are probably the most consistent guys on the mound for Houston. You know that when he shows up, he’s generally going to get the job done.
For today that wraps up our 25 man active roster. I hope you feel a bit more comfortable who’s who in the dugout these days. If there’s someone you don’t know, he’s likely a rookie and likely doing his best to prove his worth and that’s always a good thing.

It’s a GREAT time to be an Astros fan…a lot of exciting things going on within this club.

Terri Schlather (AGirlintheSouth) is the Senior Houston Astros Writer for Aerys Sports. You can read her Astros blog at www.talesfromthejuicebox.com, email her at agirlinthesouth@gmail.com, or follow her on twitter @agirlinthesouth.

When a baby bird leaves the nest, they’re supposed to soar. Of course, most baby birds don’t leave the nest until they’re ready to soar. I can’t help but feel the excitement all Astros fans feel about “baby bird” Jordan Lyles getting his debut MLB start at Wrigley Field this evening. But, I’d be lying if I said I thought he was ready to soar.

Lyles, who is 20 years, 7 months and a handful of days old, has always said that age is just a number when people talk about the fact that he graduated from high school a mere three years ago. I think age is much more than a number.  Lyles isn’t old enough to do lots of things in this country, like order a beer, but Brad Mills is handing him the reigns tonight.

When Wandy Rodriguez was diagnosed with effusion in his elbow and placed on the DL why did Mills pull Lyles up instead of someone else? I’m not a mind reader, but my guess would be three fold. Lyles impressed Mills enough in Kissimmee this Spring to be a serious contender for a spot in the starting rotation.  In pitching 13.2 innings he was 1-2 with a 1.98 ERA. He was said to be quiet, calm and level-headed. Good traits for a starter, don’t you think? Then there’s his stats from AAA OKC so far this season.  Lyles got off to a bit of rough start, but is 3-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 59 innings. Lastly, the buzz around Lyles is huge. HUGE. He’s got to be the most anticipated player since, well, Hunter and though I’d like to think that doesn’t factor in, I just wonder if Mills isn’t itching to see what Jordon can do against big league hitters, too. » Continue reading “Jordon Lyles Debut: There Are Only 2 Ways This Can Go”

I could have imagined the Astros getting a win thanks to several batters, but J.R. Towles would not have been on that list at gametime today. After a 0-32 slump, Towles proved to everyone today that the slump is over. He went 3-4 at the plate this afternoon at Minute Maid Park, the final hit being a walk-off  single to lead Houston to it’s first back to back series win. Congratulations, J.R. Your timing is impeccable!

My favorite part of the scene at the end of the game was that the first person to reach Towles on the field was Batting Coach, Mike Barnett. I’m sure the encouragement and excitement in that exchange was fierce!

There were other great plays in the game – » Continue reading “0-32? Not Anymore! JR Towles Comes Alive to Give the Astros Another W”

Last night in Houston, the Astros let one slip away that shoulda, woulda, coulda been theirs. Lead by J.A. Happ at the mound the Astros fell to the Dodgers 5-4. That puts Houston 18-31 on the season- the second lowest winning percentage in the majors. So what was Good, what was Bad and what was Ugly?

The Good

Despite getting a loss, J.A. Happ was able to take his ERA from 5.30 to 4.99 with only 3 hits and 1 earned run. Unfortunately, the Jerry Sands homerun in the third gave the Dodgers a 5-0 lead that they would never lose. In addition the Astros bullpen threw four great innings allowing 3 hits but no runs. The bullpen has been pitching well in the past several games, allowing only 1 earned run in 19 innings and I hope that’s a trend that sticks.

» Continue reading “Astros: The Good, The Bad, The Painful”

With Houston making it’s first appearance in Toronto’s Rogers Centre (I had to retype that three times to not reverse the ‘re’ to ‘er’) I teamed up with The Way of the Jay writer, Amy Swenson, to answer “6 Burning Questions” about what we’re going to see in this three game series.

1. What should we know about this weekend’s probable starting pitchers? Who’s going to shine? Who might run into troubles?

FRIDAY:

Amy: Tonight, Jo-Jo Reyes (4.75 ERA) takes the mound to try to finally get that well-deserved win. Reyes is now winless in his last 26 starts. This is the longest streak since Anthony Young went 27 in 1992-1994.  He’s one of the few starters to have faced the Astros in the past. Reyes is 1-1 in his career, with a 6.52 ERA in four starts. Reyes is long overdue for a win. His last three starts have been solid; averaging 6+ innings each game with an ERA of 3.32. However, when Reyes has a bad game, he really has a bad game. See May 4 against Oakland (3.1 IP, 5 ER) and April 16 in Boston (3 IP, 4 ER). Hopefully he can keep his control tonight and get that long awaited win.

Terri: Friday the Astros send Aneury Rodriguez (6.26 ERA) to the mound. This will be only his third major league start and he’s still hungry for his first major league win. He’s better than his 0-2 record would lead you to believe as his first start was blown by the bullpen and his last start he pitched four beautiful innings only to have it all fall apart in the fifth. I like his chances, especially given that I’m a bit superstitious and believe the third time’s the charm!

SATURDAY:

Terri: Saturday it’s Brandon Morrow against Brett Myers. I think this will be the best pitching matchup of the series and should be fun to watch. Brett’s struggled lately, but rebounded a bit on Monday in Atlanta with a quality start. He’s ready for a W as he hasn’t registered a win since April 12 and is a true competitor. Look for him to be strong.

Amy: I agree that this has the potential to be a great matchup. Brandon Morrow (4.85 ERA and 2-2 over 5 games) is a strikeout pitcher. He’s yet to K fewer than 6 batters in a game, even including his dreadful start against Detroit on May 9. He made it just 3.1 innings, giving up 5 earned runs, and yet… somehow… striking out 6. When his stuff’s good, Morrow can be counted on for well over 100 pitches, but he’s yet to stay in a game more than 6.1 innings. I think he’s ready for an even better start on Saturday.

SUNDAY:

Amy: The Jays will start rookie Kyle Drabek (4.32 ERA) on Sunday. You might be familiar with that name already; he’s the son of Cy Young Award Winner Doug Drabek, who played for the Astros from 1993 – 1996. Kyle Drabek was acquired by the Jays as part of the deal that moved Roy “Doc” Halladay to the Phillies in 2009. Like his dad, Kyle Drabek has the makings of a future ace, if he can work on his composure and control. He’s coming off of a quality start – and a win – in Detroit, where he managed to get himself into – and back out of – big jam situations, somehow allowing only 1 run over 7 innings.

Terri: Sunday the Astros send Wandy Rodriguez (3.54) to the mound. This is a guy who is a better pitcher than his 2-3 record would lead you to believe. He generally gets better as the season moves along and his last appear and in his last four starts he’s gone 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA, including eight scoreless innings Tuesday against the Braves. Wandy is well overdue for a win and the bullpen knows they’ve let him down – they won’t go down without a fight!

***I have personal ties to Kyle Drabek and will secretly be cheering him on. Don’t hate me Astros fans, but he IS a hometown boy!

» Continue reading “6 Burning Questions: The Astro’s Cross the Border”

Brandon Lyon has closed 8 games this year. He’s blown 4 saves. Today’s was pretty epic. He walked onto the mound with a 2-1 Astros lead over the Reds. Aneury Rodriguez had made a beautiful major league start debut with only 1 hit and no runs. In fact, Aneury threw 83 pitching in 5 IP – 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO with a 4.14 ERA. A pretty nice start, indeed. Going into the bottom of the ninth all Lyon had to do was hold things steady. Three outs, that’s not too much to ask for, is it? Is it?

Apparently three outs was way too much to ask for as Lyon managed to walk his first batter, Drew Stubbs, with his first four pitches. Before anyone could blink, Stubbs was on third and Heisey had made his way to first. Joey Votto hit Stubbs home then Brandon Phillips hits Heisey home to tie the game at 2. Jay Bruce doubled to bring Votto home and end the game 3-2, Reds.

You know what was missing from that sad little recap of the bottom of the ninth? An out. Yep. Brandon Lyon didn’t manage one out in that half of an inning he pitched. You know what the Astros’ problem is…..you guessed it- pitching.

It was depressing to see Houston blow yet another lead. It was depressing to watch a team that should be 16-14 fall to 12-18. There were other problems for sure, but the most glaring and pressing problem facing the Astros today in Cinncinati? Brandon Lyon. So who could fill his shoes? Mark Melancon? Jeff Fulchino? I think either is a possibility and if I’m Brad Mills I’m doing two things tonight in Cincy. #1 I’m drinking myself into a stupor to try to forget that 9th inning and #2 I’m thinking about a new closer.

Terri Schlather (AGirlintheSouth) is the Senior Houston Astros Reporter for Aerys Sports. You can read her Astros blog at www.talesfromthejuicebox.com, email her at agirlinthesouth@gmail.com, or follow her on twitter @agirlinthesouth.

Well hello Mr. Mills, it seems you like the way I think. Remember back when I mentioned that maybe pitching was the Astros biggest current problem? Remember when I griped that Nelson Figueroa shouldn’t be a starter? Yea, I know, which time. Mills seems to agree now.

According to MLB.com, Mills is moving Figueroa (8.28 ERA) out of the starting rotation and putting back in the bullpen. In the 5th spot will be Aneury Rodriguez, who currently has a 6.75 ERA in 8 innings during which he threw 7 strikeouts. He’s never started in an MLB game, but he’ll get his first shot this week on Tuesday in Cincinnati.

In discussing his decision to return Figgy back to the bullpen, Mills said, “He’s going to really strengthen our bullpen by doing this…Figgy is so viable and go short, long, middle or anything we need.”

Figueroa will be available in the bullpen starting Saturday.

As I type this, I’m in my usual spot in section 208 at Minute Maid Park Hoping Bud Norris can lead these guys to their first series win. It’s top of the 3rd and the Astros are winning 1-0 and so far Norris has allowed no hits for the Brewers!

Here’s hoping!

With last night’s 4-2 loss to the Padres, the Astros stand at 4-10. But in this series, it’s all tied up. Tonight Nelson Figueroa will take the mound in his third start since being named the 5th man in the Houston starting rotation. I haven’t been shy about my opinion on Figgy as a starter, I don’t understand it. So far this season, he’s 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA. Ouch. He’s thrown a mere 9.1 innings but has allowed a staggering 19 hits and 15 runs. Opposing batters are hitting .396 against him. Not a great start. Not what the team needs. And it’s been painful to watch.

I know that with the state of the Astros Farm system, we’re rebuilding it, that this is not a club that’s going to be a true contender for several years to come. I understand the idea of sacrificing now for the longterm good and I’m supportive of that. But, wow. Figueroa’s the best we could do?

Last season Fig pitched really well, no doubt (7-4, 3.29 ERA). But was last year his peak? Was last year a fluke? Or can Figgy bring it again? I personally think when you look at his career as a whole the likelihood that we’ll see last year’s stats out of him is pretty low. He’s a 36 year old veteran who’s time is likely passed. I’m not sure how long Brad Mills will let a pitcher struggle before he makes a change, and I’m not saying he should do it yet, but the thought’s bound to be in the back of his head by now. We’ve got some potential starters in the bullpen (Aneury Rodriguez) and some potential in AAA (Jordan Lyles, Ryan Rowland-Smith). I still maintain that Fig’s throwing for his life.

I’ll be sitting in Budweiser Patio tonight with the weeone and all the other Astros Tweeps (@astrostweeps) (that’s the twitter gang) and I’ll be cheering Figgy on, I promise, but I won’t be holding my breath.