Diamondbacks Sunday Quick Shots – February 19-25, 2012

Wrapping up the week that was, while we get ready for the week to come.

From “Snakes on the Grass”:

  • Minors Monday focused mostly on an in-depth profile of top prospect Trevor Bauer.
  • There was some mild speculation that the Dbacks would be looking for depth at catcher.
  • We took a look at why the Diamondbacks and Miguel Montero might be having a bit of difficulty reaching an agreement on an extension.
  • MLB announced that an early spring training game against the Cleveland Indians will have the players wearing microphones.
  • We took a look at why the Nats would have to be creative to pry Gerardo Parra from the Diamondacks
  • Thanks to Charles Brewer, the hazing trip that that the Diamondbacks’ rookie pitchers took to the Renaissance Festival was posted to twitter for us all to enjoy!

Best of the rest of the web:

  • AZCentral posted a great interview/profile of John McDonald. It’s a great look into the camaraderie inside the Diamondbacks’ clubhouse. Well worth a read.
  • For a complete round-up of spring training news, head over to the blog of MLB.com’s beat reporter Steve Gilbert‘s blog (Inside the Dbacks)
  • Trevor Bauer showed up to training camp. He thought he was early. Turns out, he was wrong. This story and a few other nuggets from spring training here at AZCentral.
  • Some people have high expectations of Bryan Shaw
  • John Sickels at minorleagueball.com took a look back at the history of Miguel Montero‘s career.
  • MLB.com reported that the Washington Nationals were interested in Gerardo Parra. The Diamondbacks quickly squashed that rumor – for the moment.
  • Speaking of Gerardo Parra, he definitely showed some class in addressing his most-likely-4th-outfielder role in 2012.
  • Nick Piecoro revealed that Takashi Saito has a different training program than the other Diamondbacks’ pitchers. And, perhaps more surprisingly, wasn’t required to take a physical prior to signing- because the front office thought he would fail it.
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Looking Around the NL West. Or: Look Out For The … Rockies?

In a video posted on FoxSports.com, Ken Rosenthal spent some time discussing the both the American League [video] and the National League [video]. The videos were, ostensibly, to talk about storylines that are expected to develop during spring training, but both videos ended up going off on tangets.

In the NL-video in particular, talk shifted more to what moves were and were not made in the off season by the teams. There’s a fair amount of Hanley Ramirez and Chicago Cubs talk before conversation wandered over to the NL West.

There was a discussion how, despite the lack of a huge money free agent landing in the NL West, there were still some significant changes. Starting with the Diamondbacks:

“When you look at the Arizona Diamondbacks, they really were quite aggressive. Free agent market: Jason Kubel, Takashi Saito. Trading for Trevor Cahill. Re-signed a number of their own players, the infielders McDonald, Hill and Bloomquist. So, all of those moves, combined with the re-signing of lefty Joe Saunders, they did quite a bit to really increase their depth, and going into the season, they’re going to be the favorite in that division.”

Those words are music to the ears of the fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks. But, Mr. Rosenthal doesn’t leave it there. He continues his discussion of the NL West, and, at this point, were pretty sure were this is going, because we’ve been there before.

“Another team, though, also did quite a bit. Though, none of these moves qualified as overly dramatic. I’m talking about the Colorado Rockies.”

So, let’s back this bus up right here.

» Continue reading “Looking Around the NL West. Or: Look Out For The … Rockies?”

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Diamondbacks Sunday Quick Shots – January 29-Feb 4, 2012

Wrapping up the week that was, while we get read for the week to come.

From “Snakes on the Grass“:

 

The best of the rest of the web:

» Continue reading “Diamondbacks Sunday Quick Shots – January 29-Feb 4, 2012″

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And, we have a winner! Or: 5th Starter Found

According to Steve Henson, Joe Saunders is returning to the Diamondbacks.

In my last post, discussing the lack of a 5th starter in Arizona, I mentioned that it was highly unlikely that one of the “kids” was breaking camp as the 5th guy.

Apparently, Kevin Towers agreed with me.

This comes sort of out of nowhere, with the Dbacks at maximum payroll and missing out on Bartolo Colon (potentially for monetary reasons) and boom! Here we are today.

Saunders was a solid part of the rotation last year, pitching 212 innings for the Dbacks in 2011 (and he pitched 203 between Arizona and the Angles in 2010). His 33 games started was good for 4th in the NL last year.

He has a career ERA of 4.16, but had his 2nd best ERA last year at 3.69 (his best coming in his 2008 All-Star season for the LAA). Some of his other numbers (K/9, BB/9, WHIP, etc…) aren’t as pretty, but he’s very durable and dependable and both Bill James and RotoChamp (via fangraphs) project him to have a year comparable to his previous years (though, not as good as last year). And, frankly, 200 innings of  4.1 ERA baseball isn’t something to take for granted.

Jon Heyman has reported that the deal is for $6MM, which is $2.7M less than he was possibly going to get if he had been tendered a contract and had gone through arbitration. It also means that he’s more likely to be paid for a season that more closely resembles his career average than last year’s somewhat anomalous good season.

If he performs to his career standard, he’s being paid appropriately, and if he repeats last year, he’s a bit of a bargain. Saving money is a recipe for success in a small market team, so as a fan, its hard not to like that.

Unless you’re a Dbacks rookie. You were probably much more excited for spring training when that job was available.

Certainly, no one was trying to drive him out of town at the end of last season, the value of a veteran pitcher in a room of young guys can’t be overlooked, and it seems that he’s coming back at what appears to be a relative bargain.

So… I’m cool with it. I’m sure Kevin Towers is glad about that.

(Also, no post yesterday, partially because I had to work about a bazillion hours and partially because I was busy guest-hosting at The Pulse in preparation for Tune In Tuesday. Fortunately, the boys in Arizona waited until today to decide to do something important.)

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Let The Battle Begin! Or: Wanted in Arizona – 5th Starter.

So, with Bartolo Colon headed to Oakland, it looks like the search is still on for that 5th starter.

It seems  Bartolo Colon is headed in a “different direction” than the Dbacks: Possibly, he is heading in the direction of the $$. Or, if I’m being generous, perhaps it really was as sentimental as following his heart and going back from whence he came — back in the direction of his previous comfort zone in the AL West.

Predictably, this has started the rallying cries of much of the fan base (or, at least, the vocal portion) to give the spot to one of the young kids.

Its not Spring Training – yet! – so there’s still time for that elusive 5th starter to be added and the well hasn’t quite run dry on potential pitchers, either via free-agency (There’s still Oswalt, potentially looking for a shorter-term deal to rebuild his value. And, hey! Isn’t Edwin Jackson still available? He always pitched well for Arizona.***) or trade (I seem to recall that the Yankees currently have a 7 man rotation). Also, there’s at least one veteran invite to Spring Training that probably has his eye on that 5th starter gig.

But, it isn’t impossible that one of the young guns invited to camp will break camp with the team, if the front office decides that everyone is either too expensive or too risky or a combination of both.

As it stands now, the fifth spot is still up for grabs, and the longer it goes unclaimed, the more likely it is to go to one of the young guns and the more intense the competition is going to be at spring training.

And, after today’s news, I’m pretty sure that any prospect in the Arizona system with an invite to Spring Training in their hand is probably making sure they start eating their Wheaties for breakfast.

 

 

 

 

*** ps: The Edwin Jackson comment was totally facetious, people. Just clearing that up, in case you thought I was serious.

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Pitching Trade Rumors. Or: One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other

And, just when I thought I was going to have trouble coming up with things to write about today, this happened:

While I’m not opposed to the idea of a veteran starter on a 1 year contract as a general principle… This one just seems really, REALLY weird. (How’s that for in-depth baseball analysis?!)

Also, consider:

Trevor Cahill – Age 23

Daniel Hudson – Age 24

Josh Collmenter – Age 25

Ian Kennedy – Age 27

… Bartolo Colon – Age 38

 

./`  One of these things is not like the other…
One of these things just doesn’t belong… ./`

 

Is there any situation that can’t best be described by LOLcats? I’m beginning to think not.

 

(Edited for some baseball-related thoughts:)

So, yes, the Diamondbacks need a 5th starter. They non-tendered Joe Saunders (a steady presence in last year’s rotation, pitching north of 200 innings) and Micah Owings (who pretty much pitched whenever and wherever they told him to and couldn’t buy a loss, even when he tried. The kid had a golden horseshoe shoved where the sun don’t shine this year. Exhibit A. Exhibit B.)  

I’m going to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction: I’d bet my left shoe that Tyler Skaggs isn’t breaking camp with the team out of Spring Training.

It’s a pretty safe bet that no small market team is going to risk their top pitching prospect (and someone they’re banking on becoming a future anchor of the pitching staff) becoming a Super Two. Not when there are people to be had on the free agent (and trade) market that could fill in as the 5th starter in the offensively-iffy NL West.

Also, he’s 20 years old. Sure, it happens (hello, Felix Hernandez), but I’m not sure its happening this year. (Felix Hernandez is not the standard by which the trajectory of all pitching prospects should be predicted.)

Hence, Kevin Towers looking for a veteran on a 1-2 year contract to bridge the gap. And, his past history says Colon would potentially do okay in the NL West.

Now, I know its all rumor and speculation, but so far, in his tenure Kevin Towers hasn’t really been Alex Anthopoulos or even Kenny Williams, pulling off trades away from rumor or moves that are so ridiculous, you can’t believe its true until it happens. Things seem to usually be logical, predictable and believable. Usually.

So, its weird, but it makes sense. And, it is logical, predictable and believable. We’ll just have to wait and see what comes of it all.

 If only I were patient.

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The Stove Is Hot…ish. Or: Why I’m Scared of Jason Kubel

www.flickr.com/photos/afagen/3804062924/

Going into this offseason, everyone that was asked – including the Dbacks’ CEO and team pres, Derrick Hall – said that the Diamondbacks were expecting a relatively quiet offseason.

Because, hey, if its not broken, don’t break it.

Last offseason, new GM Kevin Towers revamped a – quite frankly - scary bullpen on the cheap (highlighted by picking up a resurgent JJ Putz), extended Stephen Drew (which seemed very important at the time) and more or less filled in the rest of the holes with veteran utilitymen.

He may or may not have have become a little trigger-happy and shelled out slightly more $$$ than most people would have thrown at at people like Geoff Blum or Willie Bloomquist (who ended up playing far more than anyone would have seen coming), but he still managed to field a playoff team for a relative bargain.

 See the following chart:

Rank Team Total Payroll Average Salary
1 New York Yankees $202,689,028 $6,756,300
2 Philadelphia Phillies $172,976,379 $5,765,879
10 Detroit Tigers $105,700,231 $3,914,823
11 St. Louis Cardinals $105,433,572 $3,904,947
13 Texas Rangers $92,299,264 $3,182,733
17 Milwaukee Brewers $85,497,333 $2,849,911
25 Arizona D-Backs $53,639,833 $1,986,660
29 Tampa Bay Rays $41,053,571 $1,578,983

(adapted from bizofbaseball.com)

He also gave the manager’s job to future NL Manager of the Year, Kirk Gibson, the team pulled off the ever elusive “Worst to First”, they had a near-NL-MVP in right field, one of the best CF in the game, a golden-glover in LF, and 20-game winner who pitched himself into the CY discussion. And they won their divsion. So all-in-all, 2011 was an unqualified success.

 Which brings us back to the 2011 hot stove.  With a little time on his hands and a little more money to spend, there seems to be money flowing in some unexpected directions.  Replacing Joe Saunders with Trevor Cahill via trade makes sense. Slightly younger, slightly cheaper, throws lots of ground balls. That should fit in well with the home run derby haven that is Chase Field.

However, the action in the outfield is where I’m having my doubts.

  Player A
(Bat-L; Throw-L)
Player B
(Bat-L; Throw-R)
2010 Games Played  133  143
2011 Games Played  141  99
2011 Triple Slash Line  .292/.357/.427  .273/.332/.434
fangraphs – WAR  2.8  1.1
oWAR (baseballref)  0.3  0.9
dWAR (baseballref)  1.6 (6th in NL)  0.4
Age (2011)  24  29
Other Stuff -BB% increased*, K% decreased
- Gold Glove (LF)
-1st in NL in outfield assists & range factor
 -BB% decreased, K% increased
Salary (2012)  $1.7 mil (estimate)
–> 1st time arbitration eligible
 $7.5 mil

*often hit 8th, in front of the pitcher, which contributed to an increased IBB rate this year, so take the BB% with a grain of salt or two

Okay, so, I don’t know about y’all, but I have to say that Player B doesn’t excite me 5.8 million times more than Player A. Don’t get me wrong. I have got nothing against Jason Kubel, and the White Sox fan in me isn’t terribly upset to have him out of the AL Central, but he seems somewhat extraneous to me here on the Dbacks’ roster. For the money, he doesn’t seem to offer a huge offensive upgrade to a younger, cheaper alternative (who is getting better yearly), who is also a golden glove outfielder. Particularly since both Jason Kubel and Gerardo Parra hit from the same side, and neither has an obvious platoon split.

I am probably more partial to Gerardo Parra than he may even deserve (I can be won over by a great diving play or an outfield assist any day of the week. I’m easy.), but I’m just not buying what Kevin Towers is selling with this acquisition. I’m not sure I want Gerardo Parra relegated to a 4th outfielder role.

I hope I’m wrong, and that this works out for everyone, but I’m also worried that someone gave Kevin Towers a little too much money and a little too much free reign. I hope that the Jason Kubel signing isn’t the start of a trend and that there’s not more where this came from. But, even if that’s the end of the action, I think this off season might have been a little too loud for me.

(Coming soon, a love letter to Gerardo Parra. It seems appropriate.)

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