When Larry Wayne Jones Jr. retired in 2012, a big void was left in the Braves infield. the position was third base, and it had been manned by Chipper Jones for 15 1/2 years. Vinny Castilla and Mark DeRosa held the position from 2002 to midway through 2004. The Braves had Juan Francisco ready to man the position, with assistance from Chris Johnson. Let’s look to see how the Braves third basemen have stacked up compared to other teams.

The Braves currently rank eighth in MLB in WAR for third basemen, with 1.6. Chris Johnson currently ranks tenth in MLB with his WAR rating of 1.0. Juan Francsico, despite his recent struggles, ranks 15th in MLB with a WAR rating of .3. Last year, Chipper Jones finished off his total WAR with 2.6. The Braves third basemen have kept up the pace and, in some ways, exceed what Chipper did in his final year with the Braves. We’ll now take a look at individual performances from the Braves third basemen.

Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson has been a hitting machine since coming to Atlanta with Justin Upton in January. Regression is bound to happen with his .434 BABIP, which is way above his career norm, but he has not shown any signs of it approaching, despite a recent slump that was ended with a trip to Arizona. He hasn’t hit for a much power as advertised, but he has shown a willingness to go the other way with the ball, something that some of the Braves hitters have been reluctant to do. He likes to the ball, but if he’s given a pitch outside, he will gladly drive it into right center.

One of the biggest flaws I heard about Johnson was that he was a poor defender at the hot corner. Entering May 19th, He was currently rated as being slightly above average with his glove at third. There is no full-proof way to measure defense yet, but I find the fielding metrics used by fangraphs to be very effective.

One flaw with Johnson that I have noticed is his very low walk-rate, which is the lowest among the Braves active starters. Since his BABIP has been so high, it has masked his low walk rate. The OBP looks very good on paper, but a low walk rate and above-average BABIP means a strong regression is due for the Braves third baseman.

A final flaw with Johnson is that he strikes out a lot. His strikeout rate of 24% is slightly higher than the MLB average of 20%. It’s a slight increase, but I would like to see him get a little more patience at the plate to see the walks increase and the strikeouts decrease.

Overall, Chris Johnson has done very well. He’s no Chipper Jones, but who is? If he can fix his walk rate and still strike the ball with authority to all parts of the park, then the devastating blow of losing Chipper will be lessened. He’s a great talent, and could be even better if he can be more patient.

Juan Francisco

Juan Francisco has a lot of power, as exhibited with numerous swings this year. Unfortunately, Francisco has a hard time laying off a curveball down-and-in, which has resulted in a massive strikeout rate. Entering play on May 19th, Francisco was striking out in 39% of his at bats, which is absurd. Francisco has always been a free-swinger, but his current skid of seven strikeouts in nine at bats is inexcusable. He needs better strike zone recognition if he plans to anchor more third base time in the future.

Juan Francisco’s defense has been about equal to Chris Johnson’s, with only a slightly lower rating. I’ve heard people rave about Francisco’s defense, but he hasn’t put it into play in 2013 yet. I expect him to make up for some lost ground with future playing time, but I’m not complaining about average defense at third, with Andrelton Simmons at short.

Juan Francisco, like Chris Johnson, has an inflated BABIP of .383. That means we should expect some regression from Juan Francisco, as scary as that sounds. He also doesn’t walk much, with a 5.3% walk rate. If you tie together luck, low walk rate, and high strikeout rate, you should start to expect some real ugly numbers from Big Juan if he can’t straighten out his plate discipline.

Overall, Juan Francisco has been struggling mightily at the plate as of late. His average defense cannot mask his atrocious offensive numbers he has been exhibiting lately. He needs to cut down on the strikeouts, if he still wants to have a share of third base with Chris Johnson.

Overall

I can’t complain too much with the third base play for the Braves. Chris Johnson’s numbers have overshadowed Francisco’s, which is why the Braves third base platoon has been working. Unfortunately, the numbers say that both players are due for regression, which isn’t what a team struggling to score runs in a consistent manner wants to hear. More patience at the plate is a must, especially for Juan Francisco. Just judging off the raw numbers, however, the third base platoon has been good for the 8th best in baseball

Tweet of the Night

This one comes from the Braves official twitter page:

And we have taken the lead in the 8th!#soundfamiliar

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 19, 2013

Follow me on twitter @kevinpate21

At the beginning of spring training, the Atlanta Braves thought they had the best bullpen in baseball. If the starting pitchers could go six innings with a win, then O’Ventbrel (Eric O’Flaherty, Johnny Venters, and Craig Kimbrel) would come in to finish of the win 95% of the time. This would make the Braves pay a six inning game, as those three are nearly unhittable.

Remember when these three were available to close out a game? Now the two on the ends are hurt.

Unfortunately, two of those three have landed on the disabled list, and at least one being out for the remainder of the season with Tommy John Surgery (Venters). The Braves also have Jordan Walden, another shutdown reliever, on the disabled list with right elbow inflammation, but GM Frank Wren expects him to be back within a week. Luis Ayala, who was traded from Baltimore in April, has also hit the disabled list with an anxiety disorder. Ayala is a formidable bullpen arm, who is extremely tough on lefties and was likely acquired to help make up for the loss of Venters.

With the injuries to the above, where does this leave the Braves bullpen? Cory Gearrin and Luis Avilan will be called upon to be the set-up men for the Braves leading up to Craig Kimbrel. Entering this season, they had a combined amount of 75 innings pitched in their major league career. The youngsters have proven valuable during their short stint, but are they ready to have a role as big as the 8th inning to preserve a lead? Time will tell, but the scariest part of the bullpen is the 7th inning and earlier.

Anthony Vavarro will likely be the 6th/7th inning specialist. His stat line is impressive so far, but regression is bound to happen to the 28-year-old. He also has minimal MLB experience, but he has a better track record than David Carpenter and Cary Rasmus, who was called up to replace Eric O’Flaherty.

Rasmus has always been thought of as a good bullpen arm, and his stats for Gwinnett prove that. Unfortunately, he is a rookie and shouldn’t be counted on for immediate success with the Braves. I would have never thought that he or David Carpenter would be pitching meaningful games for the braves this year, but it looks as though that may happen.

As stated earlier, Jordan Walden is expected to be back by next week and Luis Ayala has already begun a rehab assignment. The Braves bullpen has a completely new look without the likes of Venters and O’Flaherty in the fold, and it was completely unexpected. I still think the bullpen will be okay, but late-inning leads will be less protected with the new-look bullpen the Braves have for the time being. Everyone has their fingers crossed that O’Flaherty will not need Tommy John Surgery, but a visit to Dr. James Andrews looms in the future. The bullpen was a key part to the Braves planned success this year, but it could soon turn into their greatest vulnerability.

Tweet of the Night

Tonight’s tweet of the night comes from MLB’s Braves beat writer Mark Bowman, who talks about Capuano’s dominance of the Braves:

I’m convinced Capuano would throw a shutout against the ’27 Yankees if they were wearing Braves uniforms

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) May 19, 2013

Follow me on twitter @kevinpate21

Following his 5th win this season, Paul Maholm could be a very interesting name that bounces around during the trade deadline. The crafty lefty is still finding ways to be successful in the majors. With left-handed pitchers being able to get a job in MLB as long as they pulse, how much could a lefty fetch in the market if they are very successful?

Could Paul Maholm be trade bait during 2013? He’s affordable.

Paul Maholm was never thought of as a top prospect in the game, despite being taken in the first round (8th overall) of the 2003 draft. He cracked the Pittsburgh Pirates Top Ten List, but was lost behind the shadows of Zach Duke and Ian Snell. Duke is now a reliever for the Washington Nationals, while Snell has been out of the big leagues since 2010.

Maholm was a strong starter for the Pirates early in his career, but a inconsistency from 2009 to 2011 led to a lack of interest in the free agency market. He signed with the Cubs in 2012, and pitched great for the under performing club, despite his slow start. He, along with Reed Johnson, was able to fetch Ardoys Vizcaino, a highly touted prospect with arm trouble.

Maholm has pitched great since becoming a member of the Braves, and people think that he could have a career very similar to Jamie Moyer, who pitched until he was 49. Maholm may not pitch that long, but he has the smarts and skillset to have a long career in the major leagues, especially since he was a lefty.

Maholm did not garnish a lot of attention during the trading period of last year, and I still think that the Braves acquiring him was that the Cubs wanted some of the Braves’ young pitching, not because he was being shopped. This is the last year in his contract, and the Braves have Brandon Beachy coming back from rehab, along with Sean Gilmartin, JR Graham, and Alex Wood waiting in the minors.

Trading Maholm is plausible, but it will depend on how ready the younger guys are, including Julio Teheran. With Tim Hudson’s contract also being up following the 2013 season, there could be two open slots in the rotation for 2014. Maholm could be brought back, or simply made a qualifying offer to receive a compensatory pick in the 2014 MLB Draft.

Looking at WAR ratings for teams starting pitchers, the Indians, Orioles, and Giants (really?) are ranked in the bottom 12. I doubt the Giants will be in the market for starting pitching, so let’s say that the Indians and Orioles would be the primary buyers. For the sake of keeping things interesting, let’s look at second basemen rankings for those teams. The Orioles are second to last (in front of the Marlins) in WAR rating. Could the Braves package Dan Uggla and Paul Maholm and receive one of their third base prospects? Maybe. The pieces fit. Now let’s look at the Indians. They have a plethora of shortstop prospects, but the Braves have Andrelton Simmons planted in the position right now. Could the Braves swing a trade for Francisco Lindor, Dorssys Paulino, Tony Wolters, or Ronny Rodriguez and groom them to be a second baseman? Many will say that the haul is too much to expect for half-a-year of Maholm, but don’t underestimate a desperate team like Cleveland.

Too many things are at stake for the Braves to pull the trigger on a Paul Maholm trade for 2013. Beachy’s health and the younger guys’ progression will have to be considered, and a playoff team shouldn’t have to “hope” for results when their starting pitchers take the mound. This 2013 season could be very special with the Braves, and Maholm plays a vita role as an anchor of this rotation. I don’t think a trade will happen, but, if one were to, the Indians and Orioles are the ones I would pay attention to as the trading deadline gets closer.

TWEET OF THE NIGHT

The tweet of the night comes from Jeff Schultz, one of my favorite journalists. He makes an observation of Jason Heyward and compares it to BJ Upton.

Jason Heyward on base for second time in first game back. Maybe B,J, Upton should have has appendix out.

— Jeff Schultz (@JeffSchultzAJC) May 18, 2013

Follow me on twitter @kevinpate21

Entering play on May 12th, the Braves stand first in the NL East with a 21-15 record. The Nationals are in second with a 20-16 record, followed by the Phillies (17-21), the Mets (14-19), and the Marlins (11-26). I am going to focus on the Braves and Nationals, because I think they are the two that will stay in the division race in September.

The first comparison that we’ll look at is the Pythagorean Win-Loss record. This is the record that comes from the amount of runs you scored (wins) to the amount of runs you have given up (losses), also known as the run differential. The Braves Pythagorean record is 21-15, while the Nationals is 17-19. This means the Nationals should be playing below .500 ball, but are the beneficiaries of luck.

Luck is the amount of wins that a team is away from their Pythagorean Win-Loss record. For an example, the Baltimore Orioles were the luckiest team in baseball last year with 11 wins more than they’re Pythagorean record indicates. Five teams were five wins less than their Pythagorean record indicated, with only the St. Louis Cardinals making the playoffs from that group. This year, the Nationals are tie with the Yankees with a luck of three extra wins, while the Braves have 0. I’d rather be lucky than good, but luck can sometimes run its course. From the math the Braves are better.

The next matter to be discussed is the strength of schedule (SOS). To calculate SOS you simply calculate the number of runs per game their opponents are better (or worse) than the average team. In lamens terms, I use baseball reference and fangraphs to find the SOS. The Braves are in a tie with five other teams with their SOS rating of zero, which is good for 14th place. The Nationals, on the other hand, have an SOS rating of .1, which is good for a tie with five other teams for 9th place. This means the Nationals have played a tougher schedule, but not by enough to make up for their record.

The Simple Rating System (SRS) is the final measure that we will view to judge the Braves and Nationals. SRS is very easy to calculate. You add the number of the run differential, which was discussed earlier, and then you add the SOS to it. The Braves SRS is 0.7 (0.7+0), while the Nationals have an SRS of -0.2 (-0.3+0.1). The Braves rank as the 5th best team with the Rockies in this measurement, while the Nationals rank in a two-way tie with Milwaukee for 18th. SRS is the system I like to use to see how good teams are. Using this system, the Braves are the cream of the crop in the NL East, as everyone else in their division is ranked under 17th.

The Braves have edged the Nationals in every category except luck, which is something everyone would like to be winning. The Braves luck has been average, while the Nationals have been one of the luckiest teams in baseball. I imagine that Nationals will play better, and their luck will go back down, but it’s important that the Braves try to capitalize on the Nationals poor play.

It’s easy to get ahead of ourselves as the Braves are struggling, but slumps and skids are no way to judge a team. The overall product can’t really be identified this early in the season. Slumps and skids can reveal a false product. Granted, numbers do not always check out, but they take into account the skids that teams fall into, something the average fan does not. It’s easy to feel disheartened by the Braves play of late, but the numbers say that they are still one of the elite teams in baseball.

In the beginning of April, particularly during the ten-game winning streak, the Braves pitchers were unstoppable. Just a few big nights from the offense were needed to get this team to win games, as it was the dominant pitching that steered the team.

After the winning streak, the starting pitching began to struggle. Not .to be out done, the bullpen began to struggle. Here is a list of what the pitching staff did in the first 14 games, compared to the last 21.

STAT           FIRST 14           LAST 21

Paul Maholm hit a rough stride following his hot start.

ERA             1.77                     4.57
W                    12                          9
K/9               7.3                       8.4
BB/9             2.4                       3.0
HR/9             .4                         1.4
H/9             7.6                         9.9

The Braves have given opponents a lot of opportunities to score. They have allowed roughly 14 base runners per nine inning, compared to the 10 before that. Four extra base runners per game may not sound like much, but when you give up an extra home run per game, it will come back to haunt you.

This does not solely reflect the starting rotation. Craig Kimbrel has given up three blown saves in this span, which has contributed to the underwhelming record and inflated pitching stats.

By the way, there is nothing wrong with Craig Kimbrel. He has the same velocity as last year, he is just struggling with his location and reliance of his fastball (using it about 10 percent more this year.)

The Braves pitching will balance itself out. The record is not based on how the pitching has performed, but the following will show how the offensive woes have been masked.

STAT           FIRST 14           LAST 21

BJ Upton has yet to find his groove in Atlanta.

AVG              .254                       .237
OBP                .324                       .319
HR/G            1.78                       1.14
K/G                 8.6                         9.7
R/G                 4.8                         4.1

Sure, the bad increased and the good decreased, but it was not severe enough to warrant the record that ensued. The fact is that the pitching could no longer carry the slack for the offense. The Braves pitching will straighten itself out. It will not be as bad as it has been, but it will not be as good as it was. Expect something in the middle.

The offense is another story. Justin Upton carried the offense in April, but since his power surge has halted, so has the offense. Maybe the return of McCann and/or Heyward will give the offense a boost, but it is a scary thing to watch currently. Here’s to them figuring it out.

In 2009, the Braves thought they had their center fielder of the future in the 22-year-old Jordan Schafer. He hit a home run in his first at bat against the Philidelphia Phillies and the future seemed bright, but then something happened. From an onlookers perspective, it looked like he wanted to hit everything out of the ballpark, which led to an uppercut in his swing. That uppercut eventually led to Jordan Schafer’s demise, as he was sent down after striking out in 37% of his at bats.

Schafer was sent down and promptly got injured to end his 2009 campaign. In 2010, Jason Heywad got all the headlines from the Braves outfield, while Jordan Schafer got slapped with a 50-game penalty for using a banned substance. When Schafer returned to play, he struggled to hit above the Mendoza Line (.201) for the Gwinnett Braves. Schafer was once one of the brightest stars in the game, but had absolutely fizzled out in 2010 to a point where many wondered if he would play again.

In 2011, he showed up to the Braves camp and took notes from Chipper Jones (who better?) about what he needed to do to stick in the big leagues. Nate McLouth had struggled mightily since joining the Braves in 2009, so Schafer had an opportunity to get some playing time in centerfield, Schafer had always been a strong defender, he just needed to learn how to use his bat. Chipper told him to use his speed and not worry about hitting the ball out of the ballpark. Schafer went down to Gwinnett and tried to put it to use. He hit .256, but made definite improvements on his strikeout rate, but at the expense of his walk rate. Due to Nate McLouth’s poor performance and injury, Schafer was called up to the big league team.

Schafer struggled at making consistent contact with the Braves and Astros (he was traded for Michael Bourn) in 2010, but was able to help both clubs. He was still striking out at a large rate (21%). I always thought that if Schafer could control his strikeouts and coax some more walks, then he would be an average MLB player.

Unfortunately for the Astros, he never did that with the team. In 2012 his line was .211/.297/.294 with a strikeout rate of 30%. The Astros didn’t see any reason for keeping Schafer, and the released him on waivers, where the Braves picked him up.

Something happened to Schafer in spring training; something that has translated into him having a great first month-and-a-half of the season. Currently, he sports a .298/.431/.468 slash line, with a high strikeout rate of 27%, but a great walk rate of 19%. Granted, his BABIP is at .394 (8% higher than his career norm), so expect some regression from that standpoint. His walk rate is what has been so impressive. At the leadoff position, he is seeing pitches and giving his team a chance to see the pitchers’ repertoire and is sometimes coaxing out a walk.

I don’t expect Jordan Schafer to be an all star at the major league level, but I do think he will make for a great 4th outfielder, who could start for some teams. He will regress, but he will be a valuable player with his bat and defense, despite the regression that is bound to happen.

What former Auburn Tiger Tim Hudson delivered in his 200th career Major League Baseball win was nothing short of a storybook that a box score cannot do justice.  Hudson went back to his roots for the win- more to the point, he went back to his bat with a double and home run.

The pitcher who proclaimed in Spring Training he would lead the pitching staff in homers, has six hits on the season and .429 batting average.  These numbers are why the 37 year old had no problem taking control of the top and bottom of innings.  After two failed attempts at the 200 mark, nothing less should be expected from a competitor like Hudson.

If you ask Hudson, he is just holding up his end of the deal but considers himself lucky to be where he is. “I’d have had a better chance of winning the lottery,” Hudson said.  “Out of high school, if you would have told me, ‘In 20 years, this is where your life is going to be,’ I’d be like, ‘You are crazy. There is no chance.’”

What he fails to mention is that he has made his own luck, fighting and defying the odds every step of the way.  The Phenix City, Alabama native was not drafted out of high school, nor did he have any major college offers.  Hudson, determined to prove critics wrong, took his undersized frame to Chattahoochee Valley Community College he where became a First-Team All American leading his team to the Division II Championship.  continue reading

SEC Baseball Weekly honors Hudson as MLB SEC Alum of the Week. (Video)

Evan Gattis will stay play a prominent role the Braves when Brian McCann returns.

The Braves sent Tyler Pastornicky back to Gwinnett to give Brian McCann a roster spot for the Braves for Monday’s game against the Reds. While the Braves are excited to have McCann’s bat and game calling back with the big league club, this leaves fans to wonder about Evan Gattis.

Evan Gattis won the NL Rookie of the Month Award for April, after leading all rookies in home runs (6), RBIs (16), and slugging percentage (.566) for that month. The 26-year-old had performed much better than anyone had thought coming into the season, thus minimizing the loss of Brian McCann. Gattis will not not be the full-time catcher when McCann returns, but his role will still be prominent with the Braves. » Continue reading “Evan Gattis’ Role When Brian McCann Returns”

The Braves split the series with the Nationals, after taking the first to, and then had the eyes on the Mets. Mike Minor pitched terrific in his seven innings of work and gave the lead to O’Flaherty and Kimbrel for the win, right? No. O’Flaherty gave up a solo home run to Marlon Byrd in the 8th inning that tied the game up for the Mets. Evan Gattis (El Oso Blanco) connected for a solo home run of his own in the 9th. Craig Kimbrel came in to close the door on the Mets, except he made one mistake to David Wright, which sent the game into extra innings. Jordan Walden, Luis Avilan, and Cory Gearrin gave pitched the 10th inning and allowed the Mets to score two, and eventually win the game 7-5 in 10 innings.Don’t get used to that effort from the bullpen. They are the best in baseball and rarely give away opportunities like that to seal a game. I’m more concentrated on the offense.

In the bottom of the 9th inning, Ramiro Pena, in for Juan Francisco, doubled to start the Braves off. Reed Johnson sacrificed him to third and that brought up Jordan Schafer, who had four walks in four plate appearances on the night. I couldn’t help but think that the Braves would win it there. Unfortunately, » Continue reading “Braves Losing Streak Goes to Three, But It’s Not All Bad”

Jordan Schafer had a great game for the Braves and was the catalyst for the offense.

The Braves, 3-7 in their last 10 games entering Monday, have struggled mightily on their cold road trip. They lost three of four to Pittsburgh and were swept mercilessly by Detroit. With the Nationals looming, Braves fans felt uneasy about the direction this team was heading entering play against their toughest opponent within the division.

Today’s hero was Jordan Schafer. Yes, the same Jordan Schafer who fizzled out of prospect status, got sent to the Astros, and now is back with the Braves as a 5th outfielder. The Braves have had an awful go of it with their lead off hitters since the beginning of the season. Schafer reached base four times in four appearances, including three walks. He was the table setter for the Braves 3-2 win over the Washington Nationals. » Continue reading “Braves Halt Losing Streak”