Before we get started, PECOTA itself which is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. It’s a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance.

From Baseball Prospectus:

PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus’s proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with thousands of historical player-seasons. PECOTA analyzes similarities with past player-seasons based not only on rate statistics, but also height, weight, age, and many other factors.

Baseball Prospectus releases the info just in time for the start of Spring Training so the fans who have a grasp in sabermetrics have something to argue over before players are even finished with their physicals.

Now, in surprising news, PECOTA is predicting the Yankees to be a 92-win team which would put them ahead of the rest of the AL East and in the lead for best record in the entire American League.

Say it with me now, “What the what?” What about the Blue Jays? Or even the Red Sox?

Well, the Red Sox are projected to finish second and the Jays – even with all of their moves this offseason – are projected to finish in third place. And I didn’t even mention the Tampa Bay Rays who are also projected to finish in second place with the Sox.

So what does this all mean? Nothing. PECOTA isn’t psychic. But it is amusing to see the “old, brittle” Yankees projected to be the best team in the American League East after seeing some predictions from people coming in as low 75-wins.

And speaking of low, PECOTA is not being kind to the Baltimore Orioles at all and is predicting a big drop for them in 2013 – a 74-win season.

As for individual player results, PECOTA thinks Kevin Youkilis will have the highest TAv of the team. For those who don’t know what it is: True Average (TAv) is a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average. Adjustments are made for park and league quality, as such the league-average mark is constant at .260.”

PECOTA is predicting Youkilis to be at .296 with Mark Teixeira a close second at .295 and Robinson Cano at .292.

On the pitching side of things, a surprising projection puts Phil Hughes ahead of Hiroki Kuroda in ERA (4.03 to 4.09) and projects CC Sabathia to win only 17 games.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens this season and if any of these projections actually come to fruition. Most Yankee fans are jokingly saying that the Yankees are now doomed because PECOTA is predicting a first-place finish for them but let’s hope 2013 isn’t doom and gloom and that the Yankees pleasantly surprise us all.

As you know from reading this blog, I’ve loved the game of baseball since I was a little girl but only recently started writing about it. You also know from reading this blog that I am not a stats guru.

The good thing is, I know what my strengths are. I know enough about the game of baseball to allow myself to not sound like an imbecile when I post about it and I can be a bit of a smart ass so I can make my game recaps fun to read.

The bad thing is, I am a little terrified of sabermetrics. I don’t know what it is about numbers that makes me so fearful. Maybe I’m having flashbacks to high school math classes. Or maybe it’s the fact that it’s been two decades since I have actually set foot in a math class.

And even though I am trying to learn about stats, I still feel like I’m in way over my head. I’ve been reading books, going to different websites to look at their stats glossaries and just when I think I’ve learned enough, something new comes along.

Truth be told, it’s all a bit overwhelming for someone like me.

» Continue reading “Confession Of A Newbie Baseball Blogger: Sabermetrics Scares the Bejeezus Out Of Me”

Now that the Yankees’ starting rotation has been set – barring any catastrophic occurrences between now and Friday – I thought it would be fun to look at their PECOTA projections for 2012 and make some of my own predictions.

But before we jump into it, I am going explain what some of these stats are. I know there are people who are just as ‘stats challenged’ as I am so I’ll give you the definitions of each stat and some of the ranges so you can understand what we’re looking for.

» Continue reading “New York Yankees: L-U-V PECOTA Y-O-U You Wanna?”

Baseball Between The Numbers: Why Everything You Know About The Game Is Wrong By the Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts, Edited by Jonah Keri

Okay so I am writing a brief review of a book from 2007, sue me. I only just finished reading it and I will explain why in second.

I was told to read this book by Rebecca Glass who actually is one of the contributors to the sequel “Extra Innings: More Baseball Between the Numbers from the Team at Baseball Prospectus” which I just bought the hardcover version of about fifteen minutes ago on Amazon.com and which will be available on your Kindle – if you own one – in April.

Rebecca said this book changed her life — which is pretty obvious since she is now part of the Baseball Prospectus team — and she assured me that I’d be okay and that I had nothing to be scared of. I’ll get to that in a moment.

» Continue reading “Baseball Between The Numbers: Why Everything You Know About The Game Is Wrong”

In case you missed the hullabaloo yesterday, an app called Baseball Boyfriend was exposed to the world.

Lots of people – myself included – didn’t appreciate the app’s message.

Among them Rebecca Glass of Pinstriped Bible and Steven Goldman of Baseball Prospectus.

Rebecca talks about why she doesn’t need a baseball boyfriend.

Steven’s piece is called, “Pardon Me, Sir, But Have You Ever Talked To a Female Baseball Fan?”

Other people tweeted about their dislike for the app.

And then there were some who thought some of us were being knee-jerky in our response to Baseball Boyfriend. I was even told I was being too serious.

Well, here’s a funny take from Diane of the Value Over Replacement Blog who tries to find ways to improve Baseball Boyfriend.

Oh and hey there was some Yankees news – this is a Yankees blog after all.

Bill Hall tweeted that he signed with the Yankees yesterday. Then took an instagram picture of himself in a Yankees cap. That’s kind of awesome. It’s a minor league deal and he can be let go if he doesn’t make the Majors by Opening Day.

The Yanks are still trying to shop A.J. Burnett and they’re also still deciding between Johnny Damon and Raul Ibanez for the DH spot.

Happy Wednesday!