Broncos 50-1 Favorites to Win Super Bowl XLVII

See you in New Orleans?

MGM Grand Las Vegas is already out with the early odds to win Super Bowl XLVII and the Denver Broncos are in a logjam at 50-1 with Buffalo, Carolina, Kansas City, Miami, Seattle, and St. Louis.

'Cause the giant lion at MGM Grand Las Vegas said so! (personal photo)

Fellow AFC Rival San Diego comes in at 12-1 with Oakland – now with ex-Broncos defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as head coach – is 60-1.

Inexplicably, the New England Patriots are favorites at 5-1.  I really don’t understand the generous odds, but I say this right around this time each and every year.  (In fact, here’s my post from Feb. 8, 2011 on Super Bowl XLVI odds.)

Green Bay (11-2), Pittsburgh (6-1), Philadelphia (6-1 – see below), and the Giants (8-1) round out the top five.

Some other odds anomalies:

The Indianapolis Colts – the 2-14 in 2011 Indianapolis Colts – are 25-1 favorites to win Super Bowl XLVII.  Huh?  Is this under the assumption Peyton Manning is QB in 2012?  What about Andrew Luck?  Are the odds the same?  Talk about generous odds…

And staying with generous odds…the Philadelphia Eagles are 6-1 favorites, better than the 8-1 Super Bowl champion New York Giants.  When it comes to Philadelphia, color me unimpressed.  They have yet to make a believer out of me.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (150-0) are the biggest long shots to win it all in New Orleans.

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Why Broncos Fans Should Root for Jeff Fisher Landing in St. Louis

In a week filled with Broncos euphoria, here’s something to bring you back down to earth.

Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is a candidate for the St. Louis Rams head coaching vacancy.  The Rams will reportedly interview Allen Thursday afternoon.

Former Tennessee Titans head coach Jeff Fisher has narrowed his choices down to two: St. Louis and the Miami Dolphins.  Under league rules, teams must interview multiple candidates, and since Fisher can’t coach both teams, someone will have to “settle” on another candidate.  (Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton has also interviewed with St. Louis.)

For this discussion, here’s hoping St. Louis wins the Fisher sweepstakes.  There’s no simpler way of putting this: Denver cannot lose Dennis Allen.  In fact, I wrote about this very subject six weeks ago –

 My Suggestion to the Broncos Front Office: Pay Dennis Allen

Remember this?

Regardless of how and where this Broncos team winds up come January, there is one absolute must at Dove Valley: do not fire Dennis Allen, do not let Dennis Allen weigh his options…PAY DENNIS ALLEN and guarantee him a home for five years.

The Broncos appear to have found a solid coordinator in Allen – hopefully putting an end to the revolving door that saw many of his predecessors either fired or looking for greener pastures.

Entering training camp after a lengthy lockout, it took the Broncos defense several weeks to click under Allen’s command, but the product propelled Denver into the playoffs.  The team doubled its win total from a season ago, and while Tim Tebow gets the mother lode of attention, the role of Allen’s defense cannot be undervalued.

If Fisher does land in Miami, and St. Louis wants Allen, I certainly wish him the best should he accept the position.  But I’m greedy and hope Allen stays here.  Just imagine what the Broncos defensive unit can do with another offseason – a real offseason – with normal free agency and a few key additions via the 2012 NFL Draft.

Starting each season with a new face, new philosophy, and new schemes will stunt a team’s development.  Allen is the sixth defensive coordinator in Denver in six seasons.  If the Broncos have to go 7-for-7 it could mean a delay in building a much improved defense into a perennial NFL power.

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Denver Dailies: Broncos Roundup (Saturday Edition)

Sniff, sniff.  It’s the final Denver Dailies of 2011…

Woody Paige: Time has come for Tebow – Tebow, it’s time.  Time to play your best NFL game in 14 starts at quarterback.  Time to score in the second quarter.  Time to confirm conclusively that John Fox’s decision in the second half of the Broncos’ first game against the Chargers was correct.  Read more from The Denver Post >>>>

Chiefs’ wide receiver Dwayne Bowe has a gift for grab - Having battled so frequently, Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey and Kansas City wide receiver Dwayne Bowe must know each other’s mannerisms and tendencies well enough to guess what the other will have for breakfast before Sunday’s game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.  Read more from The Denver Post >>>>

Orton, other players sue over financial advice - Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton and some 20 other NFL players are suing a Chicago law firm for more than $10 million, claiming they received bad financial advice on investing in energy concerns.  Read more from The Associated Press >>>>

All About Execution - The Denver Broncos’ familiarity with Kansas City quarterback Kyle Orton — and Orton’s knowledge of them — has been a hot topic leading up to Sunday’s game between the Broncos and Chiefs.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Denver Broncos Miller, Franklin, Harris Make Football Outsiders 2011 All-Rookie Team – With the season winding down, the all the hardware is handed out to players who have had an accomplishing season. The Broncos have a chance to win the AFC West this Sunday meaning they have had a season with success.  Read more from Mile High Report >>>>

Report: Floyd Mayweather bet $1 million on Tom Brady-Tim Tebow Patriots-Broncos game - Just call him Straight Cash “Money.”  Boxing champion Floyd Mayweather reportedly scored a knockout against a Las Vegas casino this month by betting $1 million on Tom Brady’s New England Patriots to beat Tim Tebow’s Denver Broncos.  Read more from Sporting News >>>>

Marvel, ESPN team up for Tebow time - Although I’m not a big sports guy, I am aware of the cultural phenomenon that is Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow–mostly because of the Tebowing blog someone showed me some time back. And since the guy apparently already has a superhero name and a healing factor that rivals Wolverine, why not just go all the way and turn him into a Marvel superhero?  Read more from Robot 6 >>>>

Plenty at stake in Tebow-Orton Bowl - As if the Denver Broncos and Tim Tebow need any more pressure.  A home loss to Kansas City in Week 17, coupled with an Oakland win at home against San Diego on Sunday, will keep the Broncos out of the playoffs. They would be 8-8 and end the season with three straight losses.  Read more from ESPN AFC West blog >>>>

Defenses coming up with blueprint for Tebow Time to run out –  With Tim Tebow coming off the worst performance of his young career, I wanted to know if defensive coordinators around the league have come up with a blueprint for slowing down the Denver Broncos quarterback.  Read more from NFL >>>>

Denver Broncos Fans Nervous in Anticipation of Kyle Orton’s Return: A Fan’s Take - I’ll be honest. I have never liked Kyle Orton. As a lifelong Chicago Bears fan living in Denver, I’ve had to put up with the likes of this particular quarterback for six long years.  Read more from Yahoo! Sports >>>>

Lloyd plans to stay in St. Louis if OC McDaniels does - Despite all the struggles the Rams have had this year — and the fact that they’ve won just two games since he was traded to the team from the Denver Broncos – wideout Brandon Lloyd said Thursday he wouldn’t mind making St. Louis his permanent home.  Read more from NFL >>>>

5 Keys To A Kansas City Chiefs’ Victory Over The Denver Broncos In Week 17 - And then there was one.  One game remaining, of course.  Although it’s difficult to believe, the Chiefs have finally reached the ultimate game of the regular season, and it’s time to meet up with a familiar foe.  Read more from Arrowhead Pride >>>>

KYLE ORTON: Meet The Guy Who Has A Chance To Kill Tebowmania Once And For All On Sunday – In a hilarious turn of events, Kyle Orton has a chance to drive a stake through the heart of Tebowmania on Sunday.  Read more from Business Insider >>>>

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Von Miller Stands Out Among Defensive Rookies

Think back eight months ago to the 2011 NFL Draft…

Now this part is uncomfortable, but imagine if the Broncos had not drafted Von Miller.

In the days leading up to the draft, Denver’s front office referred to the No. 2 overall pick as a decision the team “can’t miss” on.  The front office was right.  The pick: spot on.   John Fox later said Miller was the team’s top-ranked defensive prospect, but drafting is a tricky business.  For all the highly ranked prospects who turn into NFL greats there are probably just as many (if not more) great looking college players who do their part to keep the average for NFL careers at less than 4 years.  Sure, you have to have a bit of luck in each draft for who knows when a knee will go unexpectedly, or which players are a year away from hitting their strides.   Somehow through all the big name choices, it appears the Denver front office nailed it with Miller in a decision that didn’t look so easy eight months ago.

The Broncos got it right with Von Miller. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Let’s not forget how the Denver draft discussion evolved in 2011.  Remember when the 2010 campaign ended? Remember the name on everyone’s lips?  Da’Quan Bowers.  His stock plummeted amid reports of a slow-healing knee.  Drafted 51st overall, Bowers has started three games for Tampa Bay and has 1.5 sacks to his name.  A great end of season run for Auburn’s Nick Fairley made him a hot draft commodity.  Less hot is the single sack and zero starts he’s had in Detroit, having missed substantial time due to injury.

Once the novelty of Bowers and Fairley started to wane in March, some new names came into play.  Pundits looked deeper into the ACC at North Carolina DE Richard Quinn.  In 12 games with the St. Louis Rams this season Quinn has posted 5 sacks and 16 tackles.  Not bad, but not “forces us to change our blocking scheme” good.  Same goes for Marcell Dareus, who many Broncos fans were pining for even as the draft began.  Dareus is proving to be worth the hype – 35 combined tackles and 4.5 sacks from the interior of the defensive line.

Moving away from the front seven, there was also a hard to resist gleam in the form of LSU’s Patrick Peterson.  As a rookie with the Cardinals, Peterson started off very quietly this season.  Then he took off.  Two interceptions, one sack, 57 tackles, and probably most notably…4 punts returned for touchdowns.  Not bad at all, but…

Then there’s Von Miller.  Described in college game tape as playing on a different level than everyone else at Texas A&M, Miller has effectively come into the NFL and, well, looks like he’s playing on a different level than everyone else: 12 games, 62 tackles, 11.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles.  The only defensive rookie that comes close to that production is Aldon Smith, who is right now being used in a situational capacity in San Francisco.

All eyes have been on Miller since training camp. (personal photo)

With each snap, Miller makes his case for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and through 14 games, it’s really a two-player race with Smith.  Personal preferences aside, Miller is unquestionably the more important player as his contributions must come on every down.  When Miller was unavailable, the Denver defense surrendered more than 30 points to a Minnesota Vikings offense missing Adrian Peterson and starting a somewhat pedestrian rookie quarterback.

At this pace, Miller’s impact on the NFL appears to be very much in tune with his idol, the late Derrick Thomas.  Just like that #58, Miller will likely be a menace to opposing offenses for seasons to come.

A lot of things, many impossible to explain, are going right for the Denver Broncos these days.  However one of the biggest factors in Denver’s defensive success this season is the fact that when it came down to crunch time in the NFL draft, and the Broncos front office couldn’t afford any mistakes, the front office team played it perfectly.

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Would the Chiefs Really Pursue Josh McDaniels?

It’s been a rough season for the Chiefs, though around here, there’s little sympathy.

Multiple starters are on injured reserve, and despite finding some semblance of rhythm midway through the season, the Chiefs have looked nothing like last season’s AFC West champions.

Should now-ousted head coach Todd Haley be the fall guy?  In my opinion, no, but as a head coach, “fall guy” status is an occupational hazard.  No coach will use the injury excuse as an explanation for failure or underperformance, and Haley didn’t.

He’ll end up somewhere, because I truly believe Haley is a solid coach – not yet upper-echelon, but good enough to deserve another chance.

That brings me to the possible KC courtship of ex-Broncos head coach and current Rams offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, a rumor I first heard Sunday.  I initially thought the speculation was ludicrous, and a day later, my opinion is unchanged.

Maybe McDaniels is a better fit in Kansas City; he has ties to GM Scott Pioli, and we all know about his strong working relationship with quarterback Matt Cassel.

Last week marked one year since McDaniels’ firing in Denver, a tenure marred by arrogance and miscues.  If the Chiefs really want to go down that road, then so be it.  As a division rival, I’m sure the Broncos Nation would applaud what is seemingly a poor hire.

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Josh McDaniels: One Year Later

Happy Anniversary, Broncos fans.

It’s been exactly one year since the tumultuous Josh McDaniels era came to a merciful end.  Now 365 days later, perhaps the biggest surprise is that the Broncos are 7-5 and the “if the playoffs started today” 4th seed in the AFC.

The Broncos are the talk of the NFL – for the right reason: winning.  Not because of Spygate II.  Not because of any handshake drama with Chiefs head coach Todd Haley.  Not because of an utterly embarrassing home blowout to a divison rival.

There’s no doubt about it; the Broncos have been better than any of us would have imagined, but that doesn’t exonerate McDaniels from his otherwise terrible tenure as head coach.

The last 55 days or so (and counting) won’t erase that mess, but it’s a start.

It's been a year since the firing of Josh McDaniels. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

The Good  

Yes, even Josh McDaniels did some good things in Denver.  For starters, he did win his first six games back in 2009, the franchise’s best start since the 1998 Super Bowl season.

This ‘The Good’ list would have ended there if not for what we’ve seen in recent weeks.

McDaniels did draft Tim Tebow, who, debate all you want about his quarterbacking skills, has gone 6-1 as a starter this season.  McDaniels also drafted wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.  So far, Decker has been the standout receiver of the two, but Thomas showed Sunday why was he taken 22nd overall in 2010.  While it remains to be seen, McDaniels’ validation could be that Class of 2010 trio.

Another plus?  McDaniels did put Denver in the position to draft Von Miller.  Though, had he been coach, I highly doubt McDaniels would have drafted the linebacker with the No. 2 pick.  I now shudder to think about life without Miller.  Moving on…

The Bad

Remember that 6-0 start in 2009?  Remember that halftime interview with Chris Berman during Monday Night Football?  Remember how everything went downhill – and fast – immediately thereafter?  Looking back on it now, McDaniels set that ball into motion months before; the 6-0 start was just a pleasant diversion from the inevitable.

Where to begin…let’s do this quick pull-off-the-band-aid-style with some highlights.

Jay Cutler.

He's not exactly Mr. Personality, but Jay Cutler can throw the football. (courtesy Mike Shadle)

Brandon Marshall.

Peyton Hillis.

Tony Scheffler.

For one reason or another, each player’s relationship with McDaniels turned horribly wrong.  So wrong each player is now playing elsewhere.  Cutler was miffed about McDaniels open adulation of Matt Cassel, and was traded before the 2009 season.  Hillis did something to fall out of McDaniels’ favor…do we even know what?  Scheffler and Marshall were reportedly close to Cutler, and therefore, the “enemy” in McDaniels’ eyes.

The players Denver got in exchange for those deals have had little impact.  Has Brady Quinn even played a down for the Broncos?   By my count, Robert Ayers is the only other player still on the Broncos roster.

As a talk radio caller recently put it, McDaniels’ roster moves were akin to “putting the team into a minibus and driving it into a lake.”

If one Spygate wasn’t enough, thanks to Steve Scarnecchia’s videotaping misadventures in London in 2010, Spygate took on a Broncos-flair.  Scarnecchia, Denver’s director of video operations, was fired and the Broncos and McDaniels were fined $50,000.

John Fox: Upgrade (personal photo)

That’s all the hard evidence.  The softer, yet possibly most irritating evidence of the complete failure of the McDaniels’ era was his overall approach.  Josh McDaniels’ stint with the nearly invincible Patriots of 2007 both got him the Denver job, and ultimately lost it for him.  His roster moves showed his true belief that individual matchups don’t matter nearly as much as coach’s ability to scheme in a system.  McDaniels used the Broncos franchise as a laboratory in his attempt to show the NFL just how gifted he was at outmaneuvering any opponent.  What resulted was a team that couldn’t outmuscle physical opponents or out-finesse tactical ones.  From the onset, McDaniels wanted his people succeeding with his plays and when they couldn’t the system crumbled.

(A quick side note…isn’t this the most obvious reason why John Fox is a successful head coach and McDaniels is a losing offensive coordinator?  Fox didn’t get to pick his people. Heck, he inherited a quarterback in Tebow that basically didn’t fit into any system currently being run in the NFL.  So instead of Fox running “his system” and making terrible player transactions just for the sake of having “his guys” he looked around at what was available and got to building.  That’s coaching.)

The Verdict

Do we really need one?  The Broncos are in the playoff hunt and McDaniels is now offensive coordinator for 2-10 St. Louis.  If Denver does get the chance to play a 17th game, I think we know who gets the last laugh.

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Brandon Lloyd Isn’t Surprised with Tim Tebow’s Success

Not even two months ago, Brandon Lloyd wanted out of Denver.

He landed in St. Louis via a mid-October trade, and thanks to his 30 receptions with the Rams, earned Denver a 5th round draft pick in 2012.

There’s still some online debate on whether Lloyd was the “source” in a less-than-flattering Yahoo! Sports article on Tim Tebow published back in August.  Maybe he was, though I tend to think not, but I don’t know.  I do know that Lloyd’s latest Tim Tebow comments are complimentary.

Brandon Lloyd wishes the Broncos had more "clarity" with its quarterback situation earlier this season. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Speaking with CSNBayArea ahead of Sunday’s Rams at 49ers game, Lloyd, who played for San Francisco 2003-05, said he wished the Broncos had resolved the quarterback issue before the season, a sentiment I think many fans would agree with:

“This is what I was talking about in the summertime when (Kyle) Orton was on the trading block.  Hey, trade him now so we can go into the Tebow era. Let’s get it over with and see if he’s got it. Let’s build the offense around him. Let’s do that. But don’t have a starting quarterback and run an offense and the anticipation for Tim to play be so powerful that it just distracts the team.”

With all due respect, the Broncos did attempt a trade, and that deal with Miami never materialized.   As for building an offense around Tebow, Lloyd does have a point, though the lockout-filled offseason did complicate matters somewhat.  (That’s actually the subject of an upcoming DHF post.  Stay tuned.)

When asked if he’s surprised if the Tebow-led Broncos are succeeding, Lloyd said:

“Not at all. That’s what I saying back in the summertime. Just gives us something to believe in. All I wanted in the summertime was some clarity. Make it clear who the quarterback is going to be, and then we can buy into it. It doesn’t matter what the offense is. It doesn’t matter what you do. We’re the best athletes in the world at what we do. It doesn’t matter what we do, as long as we believe in it and we’re all executing it, it’ll work. And that’s the never-ending quest for every team. Just believe in what we’re trying to show you and it’ll work. So, no, I’m not surprised at all.”

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Cassius Vaughn Has “Significant” Leg Injury

Broncos cornerback Cassius Vaughn has what head coach John Fox is calling a “significant” leg injury.

The Denver Post reports Vaughn broke his fibula during a 36-yard kickoff return in the first quarter of Sunday’s game at San Diego.  The Broncos have not put Vaughn on injured reserve, but with only five regular season games remaining, his return this season is in doubt.  Fox told the media Monday:

“[The injury] is significant enough and we’re still determining the right course.”

Brandon Lloyd's legacy in Denver is a 5th round draft pick in 2012. (personal photo)

The Broncos did not sign another player to the roster after last week’s release of quarterback Kyle Orton.  If Vaughn is placed on IR, the team could add two players to round out the 53-man roster.

Broncos Get 5th Round Draft Pick

I tweeted this yesterday, but here it is again for the non-Twitter crowd out there…

Wide receiver Brandon Lloyd caught his 30th pass of the season for St. Louis, giving the Broncos a 5th round pick in next year’s NFL Draft.  If Lloyd didn’t reach the 30-reception milestone, Denver would have received a 6th round pick.

The Broncos traded the Pro Bowl WR to St. Louis in October.

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Waiving Orton Goodbye

Narrator: Previously on Broncos…As the 2010 season ended, things were just starting to heat up at the quarterback position.

Tebow: “There’s only one person that carries the ball right here.”

Orton: “They’ve made the decision, and I’m not going to fight the decision.  It’s the decision.”

(Quick hit montage of Orton, Tebow, Goodell, D. Smith with frantic music)

(Black)

And that, my friends, is how the Broncos cliffhanger would’ve looked if this were a primetime drama coming back on the air this fall after leaving viewers craving answers all summer. Give the team credit…even though this was all inadvertent, a fine quarterback controversy still gave fans something to look forward to after a summer of lockout.  Perhaps a training camp battle, or at least head coach John Fox and Broncos management drawing a line in the sand and throwing full support behind one or the other.

Kyle Orton's season in Denver was doomed from the start...and his play didn't help his case. (personal photo)

As it turns out none of that happened really happened. Sure, Denver put Kyle Orton on the trading block in August, getting interest from the Dolphins, and then having the whole thing fall apart resulting in Orton once again entering an NFL season as the Denver Broncos “best chance to win.”  As lines in the sand go, that one was basically dotted.

In the end, and by that I mean the middle of the 2011 season, those four words, “best chance to win” are why Tim Tebow has become a thermonuclear, triple supernova in the media, and Orton is now running the waiver weave.

Tebow managed to do what Orton couldn’t: justify his support.

It’s hard to be negative about Orton.  By all accounts he’s a good man, a new father, and a guy who has absolutely proven capable of earning a living playing professional football.  If there was a quarterback line drawn in the sand this past August, Fox and Broncos management ended up on the Orton side while tens-of-thousands of less-informed yet paying customers would’ve moseyed to Tebow-land.  After 11 weeks of regular season action, Orton’s crew of experts could only offer frustration and and a 1-4 record as evidence.  Tebow’s crew…hope and 4-1.

One quarterback disintegrated while the other delivered.

Fortunately for Orton he has the most defined path in this whole equation.  It’s a seller’s market for quarterbacks as teams with a chance face serious issues with ailing quarterbacks.  Orton will land somewhere be it Chicago, Houston, or Kansas City.  On a quick side note, two of those situations present a pretty odd turn of events:

Chicago: The Bears would be replacing Jay Cutler with the man they traded away to get Jay Cutler.  That quarterback would then face the team he was traded to in exchange for Jay Cutler a few weeks later.  Bizarre.

Kansas City: The Chiefs would be replacing Matt Cassel with the man who was ultimately traded to a division opponent after said opponent scorned its then quarterback by showing interest in Matt Cassel.  Weird.

Somewhere in St. Louis Josh McDaniels is alternately cackling for his meddling and weeping for his incompetence.

Getting back to the Orton move, it’s a deal that makes complete sense for Kyle, and partial sense for the Denver Broncos.  Orton goes where he goes, and in exchange Denver has one less complication come the 2012 offseason.  That’s one less complication with about five still remaining when it comes to Denver’s quarterbacking future.

  • Where do the Tebow-led Broncos finish, and what does that mean?
  • Can Denver possibly keep Tebow and start someone else at quarterback without inciting an Occupy Dove Valley mob?
  • Could you even trade Tebow if the team finishes below .500?
  • Have you already won too much to grab a premier quarterback in the draft?
  • What’s up with Brady Quinn?

Yes, this works for the Broncos as they potentially save $2.5 million dollars (which amounts to very little when talking about populating the team with premier players).  It works for Orton who could get a chance to lay down some good tape ahead of a free agency offseason.  Sure, things could get weird really quickly with all of this, but for now this parting of ways may be the one thing that’s actually made any lick of sense in what’s become the most gleefully nonsensical NFL season any team has seen in a very long time.

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Denver Dailies: Broncos Roundup (Friday Edition)

The Denver Post: What’s the hottest commodity right now in the NFL?  Creative defenses.

The Denver Post: How some fans are paying tribute to #15…and why some are upset.

DenverBroncos.com: Q&A with NFL Network’s Mike Mayock, who seems like a nice enough guy, despite saying Saints cornerback Tracy Porter attended the ‘University of Indiana’ during a broadcast.  Faux pas, Mike.

Yahoo! Sports: If you’re struggling to figure out what to buy that special someone for Christmas (which I am…mightily!), consider these Broncos-themed gifts.

Multichannel News: NFL Network’s Thursday Night Football creates some strange coverage concerns.

FS Midwest: Ex-Broncos WR Brandon Lloyd is making an impact in St. Louis.

Arizona Sports: Former Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer has no regrets leaving the NFL.

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