John Elway, John Fox Explain Kneel Down Rationale

Spoiler Alert: If you were expecting, anticipating, or hoping for an admission of game mismanagement, then stop reading. You’ll be sorely disappointed.

Not even 48 hours after one of the most discouraging playoff outcomes in Denver Broncos history, head coach John Fox and vice president John Elway addressed the media in the team’s end-of-season press conference.

The theme: No regrets – at least pertaining to how Fox managed the waning moments of regulation. Fox didn’t hesitate in saying he’d make the same decision all over again:

“It didn’t seem to be the right time to go for the jugular. I’d do that again 10 times out of 10 if faced with that situation.”

The “jugular” would have been Denver’s attempt to score in the last seconds of regulation. With 31 seconds and two timeouts remaining, Fox elected to have quarterback Peyton Manning take a knee and force overtime.

Denver, the AFC’s No. 1 seed, would end up losing to the Baltimore Ravens 38-35 in double overtime. The Ravens now travel to New England to play the Patriots for the right to represent the conference in next month’s Super Bowl.

Both Elway and Fox said the team was “in shock” after Baltimore’s game-tying 70-yard touchdown with under a minute remaining in the 4th quarter. Elway told reporters it was best for the team to “regroup” and head into overtime, adding:

“Mentally, it was a good move.”

A quick aside here, but “in shock” or not, we are talking about professional athletes; however, Elway and Fox know these players. I don’t, but I’m dissatisfied with their explanation. I’m not sure if I’ll ever fully accept it.

Fox also added Saturday’s regulation-ending situation in Denver was not like Sunday’s final moments in Atlanta. The Falcons, down by one with 31 seconds remaining and two timeouts, engineered a game-winning field goal drive in their divisional round game against the Seattle Seahawks.

The press conference’s other theme was looking ahead to next season. Elway and Fox are each optimistic the team will grow from this loss. Players will have extra motivation and return hungrier next season.

Another quick aside here, but Fox talked about the team “learning” from this loss. Yet he says he’d make the same game-ending decision all over again? What did he learn?

In case you missed it, view the full press conference – Part I and Part II.

Other nuggets:

  • There are no plans right now to move cornerback Champ Bailey to safety.
  • The Broncos plan on picking up Peyton Manning’s contact when the league year ends in February.
  • Elway and Fox are pleased with Brock Osweiler’s development, and see him as the Broncos quarterback of the future.

Mike McCoy meets with San Diego Chargers

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports officials with the Chargers arrived in Denver earlier to pick up Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy and take him to San Deigo for an interview.

San Diego fired head coach Norv Turner Dec. 31 and are still looking for his replacement. New general manager Tom Telesco is leading the search. San Diego has also interviewed former Arizona Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt and Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden.

McCoy earlier interviewed with the Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears, and Philadelphia Eagles. FOX’s Jay Glazer reports the Cardinals want a second interview with McCoy Tuesday.

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Mike McCoy Has “A Few” Interviews Set Up This Weekend

For most of us, a weekend off doesn’t entail multiple job interviews. 

But then again, we’re not Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy.

McCoy is set to speak with up to four NFL teams this weekend in Denver.

The Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills are expected to interview McCoy Saturday as possible replacements to Ken Whisenhunt and Chan Gailey, respectively. The Bears and Eagles are rumored to meet with McCoy Sunday. Chicago fired Lovie Smith and Philadelphia fired Andy Reid Monday.

Earlier this week, McCoy confirmed with the Denver Post he had some interviews lined up this weekend but didn’t say how many or which teams:

“I’m going to keep that to myself. I’ve got a few set up this weekend.”

The Denver Broncos have a playoff bye, so McCoy’s weekend interviews must take place in the Denver area. McCoy says his top priority continues to be preparing the Broncos divisional round game – against the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, or Indianapolis Colts – which could limit his ability to answer certain interview questions:

“I’m going to let them know up front, very honestly, my No. 1 priority is to win football games for the Denver Broncos. I’m employed here and I’ve got a job to do.”

McCoy has been offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos since 2009.

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Wednesday Headlines: Broncos Deny Chargers…Again

It seems the San Diego Chargers, now without a general manager and head coach, turned to Denver for some answers.

And were subsequently denied.

The Denver Post reports the Broncos turned down the Chargers’ request to interview director of player personnel Matt Russell for San Diego’s GM spot.  According to the NFL Network’s Albert Breer, Russell has no interest in any position outside of Denver.

The Chargers fired general manager A.J. Smith and head coach Norv Turner on Monday.  John Elway, the Broncos’ executive vice president of football operations, said the denial was made after discussion the request with Russell:

“Matt’s done a tremendous job with the Broncos and he’s got a very bright future ahead of him.”

Russell, who played linebacker at the University of Colorado in the 1990s, has been with the Broncos since 2009.

Staying on the subject of job vacancies, it seems the Buffalo Bills are now interested in Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy.  The Bills have asked permission to meet with McCoy, and the Broncos will allow it, so long as the interview happens in Denver this weekend.  The Broncos don’t want any potential timing conflicts with playoff preparations now in full swing.   The Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears are also interested in McCoy, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Cardinals are ready to move quickly and hire ex-Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid.

As for Denver defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, a least one fellow Broncos blogger believes Del Rio is staying put.  Given the revolving doors at defensive coordinator for Denver – not to mention Del Rio’s head coaching past – that would be a huge milestone.

Other Headlines:

  • Associated Press: Broncos Go From Joke To Contender In 2 Years
  • Denver Broncos: Top 12 of 2012
  • Denver Post: Broncos need a win to do it, but some fans already looking at Patriots
  • Denver Post: Denver Broncos to stay in Denver during week off
  • USA Today: Broncos’ Trindon Holliday just might end up perfect

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Now We Know(shon)

Of the non-scoring plays that really stood out in the Denver Broncos’ domination of the Oakland Raiders, the dump-off pass to rookie running back Ronnie Hillman that found him slipping through the Oakland secondary had to be toward the top.

Does Knowshon Moreno fit in the Denver Broncos running game? (personal photo)

Why?  Because it finally allowed Hillman to showcase the type of sleek running the Broncos and their faithful had hoped to see from the rookie.  Barring injuries or an utter meltdown by Hillman, that single play could have also cemented Knowshon Moreno’s fate as a “bust.”

Broncos country has struggled with Moreno.  The 2009 first-round draft pick has shown flourishes.  Moreno seems to be someone fans and the organization have wanted to support, but have never had much of an opportunity to do so.

That kind of situation, whatever the reason, usually leads to frustration.  ”We’re ready to love you.  We want you to be a star, but you’re always hurt.  When you aren’t hurt you’re recovering from being hurt, or just not providing much of an impact.”

The difficulty with Moreno is he hasn’t been terrible, just naggingly unavailable.

Consider some other running backs in his draft class: Donald Brown of the Indianapolis Colts, Beanie Wells of the Arizona Cardinals,the Philadelphia Eagles’ LeSean McCoy, and Shonn Greene of the New York Jets.  These were the top five running backs selected in 2009, with Moreno being the first off the board.  Going off statistics available at Pro-Football-Reference.com, take a look at the percent of offensive production (rushing and receiving) each has been responsible for from the time they were drafted through Week 4:

LeSean McCoy

Yardage: 23%, Touchdowns: 25%

Shonn Greene

Yardage: 17%, Touchdowns: 9%

Beanie Wells

Yardage: 16%, Touchdowns: 18%

Donald Brown

Yardage: 12%, Touchdowns: 9%

Just to make sure we’re clear, this means LeSean McCoy, for instance, has provided 23% of the Eagles’ total yardage during the time he’s been on the team, and has essentially scored a quarter of the Eagles’ offensive touchdowns during that time. Brown, having been relegated to a “pass first and pass often” offense during that same period has only generated 12% of the Colts’ total offensive yardage, and less than a tenth of the team’s touchdowns.

So how does Knowshon Moreno rate in all of this?

Knowshon Moreno

Yardage: 15%, Touchdowns: 17%

Based solely on these figures, a Broncos-Cardinals swap of Kownshon for Beanie would basically leave each team with the same level of offensive production they had at running back before trading.  The real crux is that while both men have been in the league for an equal amount of time, Wells has played in 8 more regular season contests than Moreno.  It’s fair to assume that with half-a-season more output, Moreno would be truly identical to, if not several percentage points ahead of Wells.

Yet there’s a good chance Broncos fans would support a Wells-for-Moreno trade wholeheartedly.

What the Knowshon Moreno saga continues to be about is potential.  The fact that Moreno has been unavailable for nearly a quarter of the games the Broncos have played since drafting him matters.  It also matters that he joined this team as a top 15 draft pick, and signed a contract for top 15 money, yet guys who went off the board a round later have made greater impacts.

Had the Broncos gone back to the free agency well in an effort to bolster the backfield, Moreno could still have the benefit of being the running back with potential.  That card was removed from his hand when Ronnie Hillman scampered through the Raiders defense.  If Denver continues to activate Willis McGahee, Lance Ball, and Hillman there’s probably not much left for Moreno in Denver.  No more talk about how this must be the breakout season.

Fair or not, he’s had three seasons to make his case, and what we know about Knowshon likely isn’t going to change at this point.

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Power Rankings: Arguing with Subjective Opinions

Normally I give power rankings, at maximum, a glance.  Put all the bona fides you want behind any particular ranker or group of rankers…it’s still nothing more than a list based on a single or small collective opinion.  Yet power ranking has become as much of a “must” for sports outlets as box scores.  How else are we to know which teams would beat which other teams even though they haven’t, or perhaps, won’t play each other?

All this said, during my Tuesday glance at ESPN’s Power Rankings, I must take a bit of an issue with their brain trust when it comes to its ranking of the Denver Broncos.  Heading into Week 5, the ranking has the Broncos at number 13.  That’s two spots behind the 3-1 San Diego Chargers, three spots behind the 2-2 New York Giants, and a seemingly absurd seven spots behind Denver’s next opponent, the 2-2 New England Patriots.

If Denver wins on Sunday, do they get to just switch spots with New England, or will that win only put the Broncos “just outside” the top ten?

Look, this isn’t to say the Patriots’ position is overly inflated.  As much as I think most of us want to hope their .500 start through the first quarter of the season is a sign that the empire is collapsing, I think we all fully expect New England to be its typical elite self when 16 games are in the books.  However, the Patriots have posted losses to the undefeated Arizona Cardinals and the one-loss Baltimore Ravens.  Those teams ranked fifth and third, respectively.

Moving along my gripe list, the Giants are ranked tenth at 2-2, with losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.  This feels very much like a benefit of the doubt ranking rather than a “based on how they’ve played the past four games.”

The Chargers notched out the Broncos with comfortable victories against the Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans, and Oakland Raiders.  Mind you the Oakland victory was only comfortable due to a major debacle after the Raiders’ long snapper left with an injury.

Yet here Denver stands at 13.  Like the Patriots, the Broncos are 2-2.  The two losses were each by six points to the teams currently occupying the first and second spots on the rankings list.  The Chargers lost to the Atlanta Falcons, at home, by 24 points.  Perhaps the power ranking committee tuned out once Denver allowed big leads in games against the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans, and didn’t see the Broncos manage to make both games competitive until late in the fourth quarter.

Just as the Broncos won’t get credit until proving themselves in a big game, several other teams shouldn’t get too much of a pass for looking decent against weak opponents, and outright uncompetitive against legitimate ones.  Power rankings don’t do much more than enumerate the obvious, but even still…let’s have a little perspective.

Search ‘NFL Power Rankings’ and you’ll find a whole host of rankings.  Here are how three other outlets rank the Denver Broncos.

FOX Sports

New England: 9
Denver: 15

CBSSports.com

New England: 7
Denver: 16

Aerys Offsides

New England: 8
Denver: 10

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Denver Broncos Still Considered Among Super Bowl Favorites

What a difference Peyton Manning makes.

Yes, the Denver Broncos won the AFC West in 2011, and yes, the Broncos did advance to the divisional round of the playoffs, but…

Well, let’s be honest here, did we expect much else out of the Broncos pre-Manning?  With all due respect to Tim Tebow (and remember, I like Tebow, so don’t assume otherwise), the Broncos overachieved in 2011.

With Manning now at the helm, along with a series of offseason acquisitions, the general consensus is the Broncos are much, much improved.  In the latest Super Bowl odds from pregame.com, the Broncos are 14 to 1 favorites to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy at 2012 season’s end.  Only three other team, Green Bay (6 to 1), New England (7 to 1), and San Francisco (13 to 1), have better odds.

Like Denver, Houston and Philadelphia also have 14 to 1 odds.  And once again, Peyton’s younger brother Eli is dissed slightly; his New York Giants, the defending Super Bowl champions, are 20 to 1 favorites.

In the days following Super Bowl XLVI, the Broncos’ Super Bowl odds were 50 to 1, according to MGM Grand Las Vegas.

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Broncos 50-1 Favorites to Win Super Bowl XLVII

See you in New Orleans?

MGM Grand Las Vegas is already out with the early odds to win Super Bowl XLVII and the Denver Broncos are in a logjam at 50-1 with Buffalo, Carolina, Kansas City, Miami, Seattle, and St. Louis.

'Cause the giant lion at MGM Grand Las Vegas said so! (personal photo)

Fellow AFC Rival San Diego comes in at 12-1 with Oakland – now with ex-Broncos defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as head coach – is 60-1.

Inexplicably, the New England Patriots are favorites at 5-1.  I really don’t understand the generous odds, but I say this right around this time each and every year.  (In fact, here’s my post from Feb. 8, 2011 on Super Bowl XLVI odds.)

Green Bay (11-2), Pittsburgh (6-1), Philadelphia (6-1 – see below), and the Giants (8-1) round out the top five.

Some other odds anomalies:

The Indianapolis Colts – the 2-14 in 2011 Indianapolis Colts – are 25-1 favorites to win Super Bowl XLVII.  Huh?  Is this under the assumption Peyton Manning is QB in 2012?  What about Andrew Luck?  Are the odds the same?  Talk about generous odds…

And staying with generous odds…the Philadelphia Eagles are 6-1 favorites, better than the 8-1 Super Bowl champion New York Giants.  When it comes to Philadelphia, color me unimpressed.  They have yet to make a believer out of me.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (150-0) are the biggest long shots to win it all in New Orleans.

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Denver Dailies: Broncos Roundup (Wednesday Edition)

Krieger: Tebow proves he can win as a passer too - It’s possible this will please neither Tim Tebow’s most ardent detractors nor his most ardent admirers, but it definitely pleased his employers at Dove Valley: Tebow and the Broncos won Sunday in Minneapolis by going conventional.  Read more from The Denver Post >>>>

Retired scramblers weigh in on Tim Tebow debate - Nobody knows what will come of the Tim Tebow experiment, not even those scrambling ramblers who came before him.  Read more from The Denver Post >>>>

The People Who Hate Tim Tebow – If you’ve lost interest in thinking about Tim Tebow, don’t read the rest of this article. It will only make you crazy.  Read more from Grantland >>>>

Elway Live Podcast - John Elway talks about Tim Tebow’s development, Mario Haggan, winning five in a row and getting ready for the Bears.  Listen >>>>

After grief, former Broncos quarterback creates a home -  He was the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos, living in the shadow of John Elway. Brian Griese was under enormous pressure to succeed in the NFL, and he knew it. This was his time – to play football and do something for this community.  Read more from KUSA >>>>

Eric Decker carries over success from the Gophers to the BroncosEric Decker wasn’t on anybody’s radar six years ago when Glen Mason gave him a shot on the Gophers football squad.  Read more from Minnesota Daily >>>>

Three former Eagles thriving for Broncos’ D - I know the nation has been infected by the Tim Tebow craze out in Denver, but the Broncos’ defense has stepped its game up as well.  Read more from Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia >>>>

Streaking Broncos crack top 10; banged up Bears in freefall - Another week down, a kabillion complaints up…The biggest gripe? Ravens fans wanted to know why their team sits below the 49ers and Steelers despite having beaten them both.  Read more from NFL.com >>>>

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Denver Dailies: Broncos Roundup (Saturday Edition)

The Denver Post: Ex-Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall says his “goal is to get thrown out” of Monday night’s game against the Jets.

The Denver Post: Have a question for CBS’s Phil Simms?  Here’s your chance.

DenverBroncos.com: Profile of Broncos captain Wesley Woodyard.

DenverBroncos.com: Q&A with special teams coordinator Jeff Rodgers.

The National: It’s now Tebow Time in Denver.

Yahoo! Sports: A fan perspective on Brandon Lloyd landing in Tennessee.

Yahoo! Sports: Speaking of fan perspectives and trades, how about Brian Dawkins headed back to Philadelphia?

Panthers.com: Carolina is not pursuing any trades, including Lloyd…or so says head coach Ron Rivera.

NY Times: More Tim Tebow/Cam Newton comparison.

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Oddsmakers Project Broncos to Finish Last in AFC West

Broncos are slated to finish 5-11, according to BoDog.com. (Courtesy Baishampayan Ghose)

Are you willing to bet on the fate of the 2011 Denver Broncos?

Oddsmaker BoDog.com is out with its 2011 W/L record for all 32 teams.  The Broncos are expected to surpass last season’s win total – barely.  BoDog lists the Broncos at 5.5 wins in 2011.  Translation: 5-11, one more win than 2010, when the Broncos were plagued by third down offensive struggles and league-worst overall defense.

For what it’s worth, several weeks ago, as outlining my vision for the Broncos 2011 season preview series (which has yet to post), I settled on a 6-10 prediction.  Am I going to bet on that?  Not a chance.  The only sports predictions I usually nail are NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament early round upsets.

Sadly, BoDog doesn’t include safer odds such as:

  • Philip Rivers continues to irritate the masses.
  • The Houston Texans disappoint…again.
  • James Harrison will be fined.
  • Mike Carey’s posture remains the envy of fellow NFL referees.
  • It will snow during at least one game played at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
  • Cris Collinsworth’s open adulation of Tom Brady reaches new heights.
  • Broncos fans will boo Jay Cutler when he returns to Denver.

BoDog expects the Broncos to finish last in the AFC West, behind San Diego, Kansas City, and Oakland.  As it is every year, the New England Patriots are favored to finish with a league-best record, along with Green Bay.  The don’t-call-them-the-NFL’s-Miami-Heat Philadelphia Eagles are slated to win 10 games.

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