Considering it’s a divisional playoff game, and the Denver Broncos’ first with Peyton Manning at the helm, it feels like there should be more in-depth storylines to dissect. When I really think about it though, there is a lot to consider, but nothing warranting a thousand words. In that spirit, here are some thoughts, facts, and observations I’m mulling ahead of Saturday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens.

New Day for Denver

Much has been made of this potentially being Ray Lewis’ final NFL game. It would serve as a fitting bookend for Lewis who competed in his first playoff game on New Year’s Eve day in 2000 against the Broncos. The Baltimore Ravens won 21-3 on the way to a Super Bowl victory. Yet, a Denver victory Sunday could also been seen as the closing of a chapter. That game in 2000 was Denver’s first playoff game post-John Elway. Since then, Denver has returned to the playoffs only four other times (twice being knocked out by Peyton Manning). A win Saturday will not only signal what is perhaps the start of a demise for a Ravens defense that has been dominant for the past decade, but also the end of a period that saw the Broncos stay competitive, but just outside the bubble of a perennial playoff contender.

Is Baltimore the Sneaky On-A-Roll Team?

Also known as “Who is this year’s New York Giants?” Wild Card weekend didn’t offer much help in identifying the lower seeded team who could win it all, or even IF there was a lower seeded team who could win it all. Take a look at last weekend’s winners:

• Houston Texans: Lackluster victory over a one-dimensional offensive opponent. Impressive outing for running game against a solid defense. Displayed no indications they would create a matchup problem for a team with an elite quarterback.
• Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks arrived in the playoffs after several weeks of blowing out opponents (and a tight Week-17-so-who-really-cares victory). Not surprised they won. Would hardly characterize Seattle as a team that “eked in and started surprising people.” Too good, and too consistent of a defense.
• Green Bay Packers: Under no one’s radar. Elite quarterback who was the league’s MVP last season. Yeah, not sneaking up on anyone.
• Baltimore Ravens: Inspired victory against a team that should have been about .500 or slightly worse based on point differential. Was the Indianapolis Colts’ defense that porous or has the Ravens offense clicked that much? Is the Ravens’ defense that stout in the red zone, or did the Colts bumble the execution of too many plays? Too many variables to say for sure.

As these things generally go, I would probably pick No. 3 seeded Houston as that Wild Card weekend sleeper contender. If the Texans truly return to a potent run game, the defense and passing game are both still good enough to deliver a tough matchup. The same could also be said for Baltimore, but it just feels like more of a stretch. I could see the Ravens hanging tough, but I could also see a situation where it becomes evident early on that Baltimore is mainly smoke and mirrors. The big names on defense may be back, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if we’re talking Sunday about how it was evident they just weren’t at full strength.

Is Saturday the last call for LB Ray Lewis? (courtesy Keith Allison)

For the Record

Are you like me? Are you getting tired of the “argument” that the Broncos have only won against bad teams? Here’s my big issue with that: Yes, it’s true for the most part, but it’s not like these were close wins. Sure the Broncos may not have compiled an impressive 11-game winning streak had the team been pitted against the NFC West or played in the AFC South.

This isn’t college; coaches can’t schedule light. It’s often luck of the draw.

Before the season began, Denver’s schedule looked daunting. That was before we knew the New Orleans Saints really would be hamstrung by Bountygate, or Cam Newton’s Carolina Panthers wouldn’t improve on the past season, or the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs would somehow find a way to get substantially worse.

The Broncos won a lot of games against inferior competition, and won handily. That’s what good teams are supposed to do.

Meanwhile, Baltimore did manage to lose to the Philadelphia Eagles, beat the Chiefs 9-6, and escape a loss to the vaunted Chargers due to a play that had both a personal foul, and would’ve have required Ray Rice to be nearly 6’5″ (it’s trigonometry folks – based on where his knee hit, there is no possible way the ball was extended beyond the line of gain).

Who’s Elite?

You know what would really help out Joe Flacco? Winning this game. He’d be able to say “he” was able to outduel Peyton Manning, and “he” was still worthy of being considered an elite quarterback (not that logically, “he” refers to the Ravens, and more specifically, Ray Rice and the Ravens defense). A win would help Flacco’s case.

A win would also really help secure Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker as an elite receiving tandem. The two have been playing exceedingly well lately after what was at times an inconsistent start to the season. A trip to the AFC Championship should formalize their ascendency as a 1-2 pair that poses a big problem for defensive coordinators.

Salvaging a Season for Rice

Ray Rice has had an underwhelming season…by Ray Rice standards. Two playoff victories should be enough for him to escape questions of whether he should still be considered a big time threat. What isn’t falling in his favor is the Denver defense. Despite several big rushing days (Houston, New England, Kansas City), the Broncos front seven hasn’t allowed many running games to get going. Even the ones that did failed to single-handedly dictate the outcome of a game. If the Broncos make this game a proposition of whether Flacco can engineer enough points through the air this one will be finished well before the final whistle.

The Chris Harris Pick-Six Happened

With this guy on your side, you have to feel good. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Another quick beef…I’m a little irritated by the notion that the first times these teams met, the game would have been totally different if not for Harris’ interception. You know what? It could have been. But you know what? It wasn’t.

The Broncos could have also tallied victories in Atlanta and Houston if not for some unfortunate turnovers. Both the Ravens and Broncos could have won some additional games if they executed better. So could every other team.

Remove just the Harris interception, and the only difference is the Ravens trail 24-10 heading into the fourth quarter, the Broncos don’t fully let off the gas, and the game ends pretty much in the same fashion.

Final Note

It’s the playoffs. No outcome can be guaranteed, and the price of losing increases dramatically. All this said, the game really will come down to a simple question: Are the Broncos focused enough?

Even if the Ravens “want it more” than Denver, they still can’t match the talent of the Broncos. If Denver consistently fails to execute, it could spell trouble. If the Broncos execute for the most part and turn mistakes into minor hiccups, the Ravens still don’t win this one. If the Broncos play flawlessly, the Ravens not only lose, but lose big. The following weeks may provide a different scenario, but if the Broncos’ season ends Saturday evening it will be because the Broncos managed to end it themselves. My hunch is that’s just not going to happen.

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With back-to-back wins, the surging Denver Broncos take their act to Cincinnati to play the Bengals, a team also in the midst of a streak: three consecutive losses.

But ask anyone around Dove Valley, and expectedly, this is a game to not be taken lightly.

For one, the Bengals have their core talent from last season’s playoff team, and even currently at 3-4, remain in the mix for an AFC wild-card spot, though this is likely a must-win game for tiebreaking purposes.  Secondly, the Bengals are coming off a much-needed bye, and lastly, there’s head coach Marvin Lewis’ recently public “motivational tactic” to inspire second-year quarterback Andy Dalton and middle linebacker Rey Maualuga:

“We’re looking for our quarterback and our middle linebacker to take hold of our football team.  I think both guys are such good people, that you got to be a little bit of a dick.

“We are looking for Andy to take the next step of being the leader of the football team.  Confident, being vocal if it needs to be, but grab this football team by the back of its neck and let’s go. Let’s move forward.”

Lacking leadership is not a problem for Denver, and for quarterback Peyton Manning, neither is Cincinnati.  Manning is 7-0 all-time against the Bengals – a perfect record amassed while with the Indianapolis Colts.

Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green has a six-game touchdown reception streak. (courtesy Melissa Batson)

When Cincinnati has the ball: The Bengals offense has been up-and-down this season, from an explosive 36 points a game in their three wins to a lackluster 17 points per outing in their four losses.

Dalton has thrown a least one interception each game this season, so based on current trends, you might as well go ahead and make that eight.

That’s not exactly a knock against Dalton, but more a testament to the Broncos red-hot secondary, particularly cornerback.  Tracy Porter is out again, but Chris Harris (2 INTs) will get the nod as starter, with expected support from Tony Carter.  And then, of course, there’s Champ Bailey, who will have the duty of defending stud WR – and a fellow Georgia alumnus – A.J. Green, who has a touchdown reception in six consecutive games.

Perhaps the biggest must improve key to the Bengals’ offensive success is third-down conversion; Cincinnati ranks next-to-last in the league.  One solution hinges on Dalton.  The Bengals are working with the quarterback to hold the ball longer in hopes of creating a play.  Dalton needs to work on connecting with his second or third reads.  Right now, he’s quick to either throw an ill-advised pass to his first target (usually Green), or simply throw the ball away.   Should he hold onto the ball too long – a problem for so many young quarterbacks – there’s the risk of taking a sack.  Talk about a fine line.  It may be difficult to encourage Dalton to hold onto the ball when Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are lined up opposite.

From one Georgia Bulldog to another: Denver Broncos CB Champ Bailey’s assignment will be fellow alum, A.J. Green. (personal photo)

The Broncos’ third-down defense against the New Orleans Saints, one of the best in the league on third down, was simply stellar. The Bengals are clearly an inferior team in this category, but the Broncos cannot afford a letdown.

When Denver has the ball:  The Broncos are in an offensive groove…and it could even be better.  Think this offense looks good now?  Imagine if it cut down on turnovers.

Manning has looked his typical self in practice this week, hopefully putting that much-ballyhooed right thumb issue to rest.

Good for Denver.  Bad (potentially) for Cincinnati.

Manning, the AFC Offensive Player of the Month for October, has been lights out recently.  His 126.7 passing rating last month led all NFL quarterbacks, and Manning’s other numbers were at or near the top.  Manning’s garish October stat line has thrust him atop the league MVP discussion.

But maybe overlooked in Manning’s flashy month is the offensive line protection.  Manning was only sacked twice in 106 passing plays in October – zero sacks in the team’s two most recent games.  The Bengals’ 23 sacks tie for second in the league this season, putting the onus on Denver’s offensive line to hold strong against Cincinnati’s interior pass rush, led by Geno Atkins and Domata Peko.  Interestingly, Denver’s O-line hasn’t given up a sack against a 4-3 defense, which is what the Bengals operate.

Prediction

Denver 37, Cincinnati 24

Make no mistake: This game won’t be nearly as exciting as Denver’s most recent visit to Cincinnati, but barring an inordinate amount of turnovers, expect the Broncos to roll.

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Note: New month.  New format.  Consider this the latest incarnation of Denver Dailies: Broncos Roundup.  Enjoy!

Happy Thursday…and happy November, Broncos fans!  The team will fly to Cincinnati tomorrow, but cornerback Tracy Porter’s status remains up in the air.  Porter participated in some drills Wednesday.  ‘Some’ is better than nothing, I suppose:  on a limited basis Wednesday – but at least he was in full pads:

Broncos cornerback Tracy Porter, on the inactive list for the past two games, was in full gear for Wednesday’s practice but did not participate in all drills.

Am I alone in thinking the Broncos are being a little too vague about this entire situation?

Staying on the injury front, the Denver Post (via team officials) puts all fears about quarterback Peyton Manning’s right thumb to rest:

According to reports from the team, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning threw well with no adverse effects during Wednesday’s practice, which no doubt allowed everyone within the organization to exhale.

Manning wore a piece of tape on his right thumbnail, which had collided with the helmet of Saints defensive end Martez Wilson after Manning threw a pass Sunday night in the Broncos’ 34-14 home victory.

The Bengals have dropped three straight games, but are entering Sunday’s game off a bye.  Head coach John Fox talked about the Broncos preparations in his Wednesday news conference.

Other headlines:

• BroncoTalk: The Broncos need to curtail the fumbles. (Affirmative.)
• Bleacher Report: Can the Denver Broncos win the Super Bowl?
• CBS Denver: The AFC West race is far from over.
• Denver Broncos: Willis McGahee explains to children the importance of physical activity…and he did more than just talk.
• Mile High Report: Denver’s defensive dominance was especially true on third downs.

And for those Halloween fans out there (I like candy; not costumes), some players looked back on their favorite costumes, and here’s a look at Demaryius Thomas’ 2012 getup.

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Wesley Woodyard’s big game Sunday night got the league’s attention.

Denver Broncos LB Wesley Woodyard is the AFC Defensive Player of the Week. (personal photo)

The Denver Broncos linebacker was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week for his performance in the team’s 34-14 shellacking of the New Orleans Saints.  Woodyard finished the night with 13 tackles one sack, one interception, one forced fumble, and two passes defensed.

This is the Broncos’ third AFC Player of the Week honor in October, with Matt Prater and Peyton Manning the others.  Cornerback Tracy Porter was also named AFC Defensive Player of the Week in Week 1.

Read more about Woodyard and his role in the Broncos linebacker corps >>>>

Manning is a finalist…again

Peyton Manning is one of three finalists for the FedEx Air NFL Player of the Week.

Manning was 22 of 30 for 305 yards and three touchdowns in Denver’s win against New Orleans.  He also became just the second quarterback in NFL history with at least 300 yards passing and three touchdowns in four straight games.

Voting ends at 1:00 p.m. MDT on Friday.

Cast your vote here >>>>

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Here’s something I didn’t think was possible a month ago: The Denver Broncos have – or will soon have – flexibility at linebacker.

The unit has looked downright terrible at times this season, notably in the Broncos’ losses to the Houston Texans and New England Patriots.  The dismal performances even had me pining for the return of suspended linebacker D.J. Williams, a much-maligned player many thought Denver should have cut ties with before the season.

Denver Broncos LB Wesley Woodyard has earned his starting role. (personal photo)

But after watching the Broncos’ last 90 minutes of football, something changed; there’s been a defensive renaissance – thanks in part to improved play at linebacker, and more specifically, Wesley Woodyard.

At 6-feet and 220 pounds, Woodyard is undersized for an NFL linebacker, but he compensates with instinct and quickness, two attributes often described by football pundits as “uncoachable” traits.  Entering the season, those characteristics were typically limited to special teams where Woodyard has served as team captain since joining the Broncos as an undrafted free agent in 2008.

Woodyard has a knack for knowing where to be on the field, and that anticipation shined on Sunday night in the Broncos’ walloping of the New Orleans Saints.  Woodyard’s field presence showed on his stat line: 13 tackles, interception, sack, forced fumble, tackle for loss, and two passes defensed.

Woodyard started seven games last season while Williams’ was injured, but this time around, No. 52 is not about to give up his role.

In training camp, the thinking might have been to merely let Woodyard keep Williams’ seat warm until his return, but not anymore.  He’s made a convincing case to remain Denver’s weak side linebacker.  It seems to be an easy decision for defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio to make, and it’s not just because of Woodyard’s impressive tackle-leading stats.

With Joe Mays now on injured reserve, the Broncos are noticeably thin at middle linebacker.  Williams could likely soon share snaps with veteran Keith Brooking, a decent enough run stopper but a liability in pass coverage – which isn’t so much his fault as a product of being an aging human being. Rookie Steven Johnson is currently second on the depth chart, and he has zero tackles in his young NFL career.  Compare that to weak side linebacker – a position now apparently controlled by University of Kentucky football products (and much to my chagrin) – with Woodyard and rookie Danny Trevathan, who continues to see more playing time.

D.J. Williams, seen here watching practice, returns Nov. 12. (personal photo)

Williams played strong side linebacker early in his Broncos career, but Pro Bowler Von Miller has a stranglehold on that position with Nate Irving as backup.

Another byproduct of Williams’ return is added flexibility for Del Rio.

Let’s assume the Broncos go with Miller, Williams, and Woodyard as the starting strong, middle, and weak side linebackers, respectively. Del Rio has the option of implementing more of a rotation with Brooking, Irving and Trevathan.  Or if Brooking gets the starting nod over Williams, then he comes in later downs.  Maybe the 4-3 base defense gets a wrinkle as the Broncos throw in some occasional 3-4 schemes, or maybe we see Trevathan play more in modified nickel situations just as Woodyard did in previous seasons.

Given Denver’s current trajectory it seems likely this team could once again see the middle-strong offenses that gave the defense fits in the opening weeks (Houston and New England).  The return of Williams, bolstered by the ability to generate even more exotic looks in the box could serve the Broncos well if and when the high profile offenses come calling.

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Denver Broncos place linebacker Joe Mays on injured reserve. (personal photo)

Middle linebacker Joe Mays’ 2012 season is officially over.

The Denver Broncos played Mays (ankle) on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday.  Mays suffered a fracture left fibula just above the ankle on a special teams play in Sunday night’s game against the New Orleans Saints.

Interestingly (at least to me), the Broncos did not promote linebacker Mike Mohamed from the practice squad, instead adding safety Duke Ihenacho to the active roster.

Denver also signed cornerback Mario Butler to the practice squad.  An undrafted free agent from Georgia Tech, Butler was signed by the Dallas Cowboys in 2011, since splitting time between the practice squad and active roster.

Mays is the eighth Broncos player placed on IR this season, joining Jeremy Beal, Philip Blake, Quinton Carter, Mario Fannin, Jason Hunter, J.D. Walton, and Ty Warren.

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If you followed DHF’s Quarter Calls during or immediately after Sunday night’s game, you got a recap of the headlines by quarter.  Here are some additional thoughts following another impressive outing by the Denver Broncos.

Broncos CB Chris Harris, a second year undrafted player out of Kansas, has been a huge asset for Denver’s secondary. (personal photo)

Defensive dominance – Quarterback Peyton Manning deservedly gets the lion’s share of credit and attention, but make no mistake, the Broncos defense was the impact unit in this game.  Most anyone who cares about football expected this game to be a high-scoring shootout.  The Broncos scored.  The Saints stalled.  It will be interesting to see how this unit continues to perform.  The replacement pieces of cornerbacks Chris Harris and Tony Carter and linebackers Wesley Woodyard, Keith Brooking, and Danny Trevathan seem to have a good thing going.  What happens when cornerback Tracy Porter and linebacker D.J. Williams become available again in the coming weeks?  It was especially nice to see extended minutes for Trevathan who did an adequate job in pass coverage against Jimmy Graham (even though Graham was noticeably less than 100%).  The Broncos front seven remained strong in the middle and at the point of attack.

Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker improving – It’s been interesting to watch the evolution of Denver’s starting duo.  Ahead of the season the common belief was adding Manning would almost instantly make Thomas and Decker vaunted stars.  It turns out they each still have work to do.  While you can’t complain about their performances on Sunday, there are still shortcomings.  What Manning has done is allowed Thomas and Decker the opportunity to make huge impacts.  Now it’s up to them to take their respective games to another level.  Not there yet, but heading in the right direction…and hopefully making that “Fumbles and Stumbles” nickname I recently gave them a distant memory.

Holliday redemption- Trindon Holliday helped his case dramatically with some solid punt returns.  He has an interesting technique: catch ball, take hop to set feet, start running.  Most dynamic returners explode the moment the ball hits their hands.  Hey…whatever works.  Of note, the Broncos are allowing Holliday opportunities as a returner, but haven’t let him out of the dog house just yet for his turnover in San Diego.  Jim Leonhard got the nod as returner in obvious fair catch situations.

Denver Broncos wide receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas: So much training camp promise…finally coming to fruition? (personal photo)

Running weapons – It took the league’s worst defense, but the Broncos finally got a glimpse of what could be in terms of ground game.  Willis McGahee was his typical, yardage chewing self.  Ronnie Hillman finally started to flash.  Hillman had some impressive sprints, but you can bet running backs coach Eric Studesville will be calling him out in the film room for not running north-south enough.  The rookie put his impressive speed and agility on display, but will have to work on finding lanes upfield rather than toward the sideline.  Several rushes found Hillman sacrifice yardage as he attempted to run laterally around defenders.

Expecting wins – Looking at the Broncos remaining schedule during the bye week, it was tempting to think this team could very well win out.  However, as the New Orleans game came into sight some reality started to set in as the Saints were on an upswing, still had a potent offense, and let’s face it; the NFC looks much, much stronger than the AFC.  After Sunday, the prospect of a serious winning streak once again feels plausible.  It’s still the NFL and that means nothing is a given, but based on the last six quarters of Broncos football it appears Denver should be the favorite in each of its remaining games.

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Broncos’ Champ Bailey showed full assortment of skills against Saints – Occasionally, Champ Bailey gets asked about moving to safety some day. Some day soon or some day down the road, depending on who asks the question.  His answer usually revolves around when the time is right or when he thinks it would be best. But Sunday night was a quality example of what makes Bailey, at 34 years old, in his 14th NFL season, still among the best at what he does right now.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Broncos’ Joe Mays is out for season because of broken leg - Sometimes bad things happen to good people. And just like the wive’s tale superstition suggests, bad things happened in threes for Joe Mays.  The Broncos middle linebacker will miss the rest of the season after suffering a fractured left tibula near the ankle in the fourth quarter of his team’s 34-14 victory Sunday night against the New Orleans Saints.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Next Day Notebook: Manning’s Hand ‘Fine’ - When it comes to a quarterback’s throwing hand, even the smallest of collisions can often have significant consequences.  That’s why when quarterback Peyton Manning smashed his thumb on the helmet of Saints defensive end Martez Wilson on a 23-yard second-quarter completion to wide receiver Eric Decker, there was momentarily reason to believe that the big gain might have been a costly one.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

‘A Young Man’s Game’ - While a 15-year veteran at quarterback got most of the headlines, a crop of young Broncos made their impact felt all over the field Sunday night.  Running back Ronnie Hillman, linebacker Danny Trevathan and tight end Virgil Green all set new career highs in the 34-14 win against the New Orleans Saints.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Denver’s All-Around Dominance Leads To Blowout Win, High Grades For Broncos - When the Broncos saw the Saints on their schedule, they made sure not to take New Orleans lightly.  The Saints came into the game at 2-4, but Peyton Manning and his Denver teammates knew they could score early and often. It’s why the Broncos jumped all over New Orleans from the start and never let up, building a 17-7 lead and scoring 27 unanswered points to win 34-7.  Read more from CBS Denver >>>>

Denver Broncos’ Peyton Manning is NFL’s best quarterback - Peyton Manning was again masterful, and at times, magical on Sunday Night Football.  He was patient like usual, picking the checkdown routes at times, but he was also more aggressive, attacking the Saints’ sorry defense deep over and over again. Manning connected with Demaryius Thomas on a 41-yarder and a 30-yarder in the first quarter, and hung in the pocket to take a huge hit and deliver the ball down the sideline to Eric Decker.  Read more from Examiner >>>>

Denver Broncos Prove They Are AFC Contenders with Sunday’s Win over the Saints - With a definitive 34-14 victory that featured highlights on both offense and defense, Denver proved to the rest of the league on Sunday night it is a legitimate contender in the AFC.  Read more from Bleacher Report >>>> 

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Joe Mays has likely played for the final time this season.

The Denver Broncos middle linebacker has a broken left leg.  The injury happened while Mays was blocking a Trindon Holliday punt return in the fourth quarter of Denver’s Sunday night victory against New Orleans.

Denver Broncos LB Joe Mays suffered a broken leg in Sunday’s win against the New Orleans Saints. (personal photo)

Mays was the team’s starting middle linebacker, but had recently been demoted to special teams due to lackluster play.  He also served a one-game suspension for a helmet-to-helmet hit of Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub.

Suspended linebacker D.J. Williams can fully rejoin the Broncos on Nov. 12.  In the meantime, the Broncos could bring up linebacker Mike Mohamed from the practice squad.

Trade deadline pushed back

On Monday, the NFL announced it has moved the trade deadline to Thursday at 4:00 p.m. ET due to Hurricane Sandy.

The original deadline was Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Multiple eastern U.S. NFL teams have shut down operations today because of the storm.  The league offices are also closed through at least Tuesday.

This marks the second time the trade deadline has been moved this year. The deadline was earlier pushed back two weeks –  to Oct. 30 from Oct. 6 – following talks with the players’ union.

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