There is no such thing as a guaranteed win in the NFL.

But this game – at least on paper – suggests the Denver Broncos should handily defeat the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs are 1-9 with their lone win coming in September.  Kansas City is the NFL’s lowest scoring team and the highest turnover team.  Meanwhile the Broncos have scored at least 30 points in each game during a five-game win streak, and boast a suddenly frightening, game-changing defense.

Records aside: The Broncos and Chiefs have split the series eight of the last nine seasons.  Kansas City has won 12 of the last 17 games at Arrowhead against Denver.

Jamaal Charles leads the Kansas City Chiefs rushing attack, ranked fourth in the NFL. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

When the Chiefs have the ball: Kansas City head coach Romeo Crennel named ex-Broncos quarterback Brady Quinn as the starter Sunday.  Quinn spent two seasons with Denver and never played, backing up the media circus that ultimately surrounded Kyle Orton vs. Tim Tebow.

If the Chiefs are to reverse their losing ways, running backs Jamaal Charles and company will collectively need a huge game.  As bad as Kansas City is offensively – both in terms of scoring and turnovers – the team ranks fourth in the NFL with 145.4 rushing yards a game, best in the AFC.  And let’s not forget Kansas City has made it a habit as of late to beat Denver teams with superior records by running the ball:

2008: 213 yards (Chiefs record that season was 2-14)

2009: 317 yards (Chiefs record season was 4-12)

Charles rushed for a career-high 259 yards against a porous Broncos’ defense in January 2010.  Something tells me Denver’s talented linebackers will have none of that in 2012.  The Broncos’ rush defense allows an average of 93.8 yards per game, good for sixth in the NFL.  Von Miller is now seriously in the discussion for Defensive Player of the Year with 13 sacks, 45 tackles, and four forced fumbles so far this season.  Linebacker teammate Wesley Woodyard leads the team with 88 tackles.  D.J. Williams, who returned to action last week following suspension, had four tackles against the San Diego Chargers.

Remember, the Chiefs lead the league in turnovers this season, so expect Denver’s defense to capitalize at least once.  Woodyard leads the Broncos with three interceptions and defensive end Elvis Dumervil has six forced fumbles in 2012.

Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe is slated to play, but is recovering from a neck injury that limited his practice earlier this week.

When Denver has the ball: Perhaps curiously, the Chiefs have allowed just one 300-yard passing game this season, and that wasn’t against Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, or even Philip Rivers.  It was Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman.

It seems opposing quarterbacks are struggling at times against the Chiefs’ bread and butter of zone coverage schemes and four-man pressure formations.  And with nothing to lose this season other than fan frustration, don’t be surprised if Kansas City puts the pressure on Peyton Manning early and often.

Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno, who’s been inactive for eight games this season, will likely be activated Sunday. (personal photo)

With leading rusher Willis McGahee out until late in the playoffs, assuming Denver makes it that far, the Broncos will rely Sunday on Lance Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and Knowshon Moreno.  Though McGahee was the alpha running back, he was also responsible for five fumbles (four lost) this season, and fumbling has been the Broncos’ ongoing nemesis this season.

Maybe Denver curtails those turnovers in McGahee’s absence, but will in all likelihood sacrifice rushing yards…

Which brings us back to applying the pressure on Manning.  Kansas City’s best hope of winning is keeping the Broncos offense from hanging its typical 30 points a game, thus easing the scoring burden on an anemic Chiefs offense.  Kansas City must knock Manning around, or at least force him into ill-timed passes to stall drives or create turnovers.

Denver is a pass-oriented offense and shouldn’t miss a step with McGahee sidelined, but still needs some production from its committee of running backs. If not, the Chiefs will predictably expect pass, pass, and some more pass, and close up whatever space would otherwise be around wide receivers Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Brandon Stokley and Denver’s tight end tandem of Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme.

Denver’s passing attack is among the best in the NFL, averaging 289 yards a game.  Manning has 2,975 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in his 2012 comeback season.

Prediction

Denver 33, Kansas City 17

The Broncos should leave Kansas City still unblemished within the division and riding a six-game win streak for the second straight year.

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Two days after John Fox said running back Willis McGahee would not be placed on Injured Reserve, the Denver Broncos have had a change of heart.

McGahee, who suffered a torn MCL and compression fracture of the right knee, has been placed on IR, but with the “Designated for Return” label, meaning he can return to practice after six weeks and game action two weeks later.

Count ahead, and eight weeks just happens to be the AFC Championship game, assuming Denver makes it that far in the playoffs.

McGahee suffered the injuries in the second quarter of Denver’s 30-23 win against the San Diego Chargers when he was hit by cornerback Quentin Jammer.

Placing McGahee on IR does free up a roster spot for Denver.  Right now it’s unclear if the team would promote practice squad RB Jeremiah Johnson from the practice squad or sign a free agent, such as Steve Slaton, who worked out for the Broncos earlier this week.

Ex-Bronco QB Brady Quinn will start for the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday. (personal photo)

Denver’s current running backs are Lance Ball, rookie speedster Ronnie Hillman, and Knowshon Moreno, who’s been inactive eight games this season.

Brady Quinn gets the nod

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel has named quarterback Brady Quinn the starter in Sunday’s game against Denver at Arrowhead.

Quinn spent two seasons with the Broncos – on the sidelines as backup to Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow.  He signed with Kansas City in the offseason, and got his first start since 2009 when Matt Cassel was sidelined with a concussion in Week 6.  Quinn suffered a concussion in his second start of the season, and was replaced by a now healthy Cassel, who was benched last week for Quinn because of poor play.

The Chiefs are 1-9 this season.

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Note: This is Part II of a two-part series dissecting the Denver Broncos’ comeback attempts this season.  In today’s installment, DHF focuses largely on the Broncos’ defense and how the team can avoid slow starts.  Part I analyzed Denver’s offensive production by quarter.  Read Part I here >>>>

As DHF pointed out yesterday, Peyton Manning’s effect shows up is the second half.  Through six games, Denver’s offense has nearly doubled its point production in the third and fourth quarters, but there’s more to the story: Defense.

Take a look at points the defense is allowing each quarter per game, courtesy TeamRankings.com:

Points Allowed by Quarter

The Denver Broncos defense is sizzling in late-game situations, but much like the offense, struggling a bit early on. (personal photo)

Yet, here’s the the problem: In an average game in 2011, the Denver Broncos entered the fourth quarter trailing by about eight points.  This year, in an average game with Manning, the Broncos are entering the fourth quarter trailing by about seven points.

In other words, the statistical scoring difference between Manning’s Broncos and Tim Tebow’s 2011 Broncos is that with Manning, when the Broncos enter the fourth quarter trailing, they don’t have to go for two on a touchdown.

The crazy thing is the Denver Broncos are still scoring an average of 28.4 points per game – exactly ten more points than last season.  As expected, Manning has drastically increased the team’s ability to score.  It’s just a matter of distributing that scoring more evenly across a game.

It needs to happen soon as well.  It’s unlikely the Denver Broncos defense will finish the regular season averaging one point allowed in the fourth quarter.  Rounding these averages into real situations illustrates this point.  So far, the Broncos have not won a game in 2012 when their opponent reached 26 points before the Broncos.  On average, opponents have accumulated 22 points by the start of the fourth quarter.  If Philip Rivers hits Robert Meachem in stride instead of woefully under-throwing him and getting intercepted, the San Diego Chargers go up 31-21.  Maybe the Broncos still score two more touchdowns, but odds are the game dynamics change drastically enough to squash the comeback.

So, how does Denver actually fix its problem of slow starts?  It’s hard to say if it’s a system adjustment that’s needed, or just a mentality adjustment.  I’m inclined to say it’s the latter.  Despite the talent and star power on this team, there appears to be a mentality that confidence doesn’t kick in until specific people make plays.  When Kyle Orton was quarterback no one really made plays.  Perhaps Tebow’s greatest accomplishment was being revved up enough to get everyone, not just the “playmakers,” going.  Six games into this season it seems like no one wants to go all out until Manning makes something incredible happen.

One over-simplified solution: consider games as races instead of prize fights.  The Broncos seem too content to play the role of counter punchers. They need to be sprinters.  First one to 26 wins.  Hanging around, adjusting, and coming back is fun when it works, but when it doesn’t the Broncos are just another average to subpar team relying too heavily on one person to make games competitive.

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Note: This is Part I of a two-part series dissecting the Denver Broncos’ comeback attempts this season.  In today’s installment, DHF focuses on the Broncos’ offensive performance by quarter.  Part II will analyze Denver’s defense and how the Broncos can avoid slow starts.  

Comebacks are awesome to watch.  The thrill of watching a team improbably claw back into a game and pull ahead in the closing minutes is great drama…so long as 1) your team is the one successfully coming back, or even better 2) isn’t even playing in the game.

It’s no surprise Peyton Manning’s offense is outscoring the 2011 Broncos, but that’s not the entire story. (person photo)

What makes comeback victories particularly enjoyable is that good ones are instant classics, because consistently wining by climbing out of gaping holes is an anomaly.

So far this season the Denver Broncos have attempted four monumental comebacks with a 25% success rate.  Win 25% of your games in the NFL and you likely get a top five draft pick come April.

Make no mistake it was exhilarating to watch the Broncos execute a flawless half of football and crush a division foe last Monday night against the San Diego Chargers.  It showed this team can be dangerous.

But we already knew that.

This team looked plenty dangerous as it cut huge leads by the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans to six points in each game, and looked moments away from pulling within three of the New England Patriots.  The problem in those games, and largely the problem with comebacks in general, is that too many quirky things can happen in football.  Opposing receivers can get just enough separation on out-routes and extend drives, veterans can fail to lock in a simple catch on 4th and 1, or get the ball ripped away as they fall down.

Successful comebacks require a lot of things to go exactly right at some exact moments, and if any one of those things fails, so to does the comeback.

What’s been somewhat puzzling through Denver’s first six games of the season is that the 2012 Denver Broncos produce a very similar tempo to the 2011 Denver Broncos in terms of point production during games. Take a look at these numbers gathered from TeamRankings.com:

Offense Scoring by Quarter

Some interesting things standout here.  First, believe it or not, thus far the Peyton Manning helmed offense has done a worse job at producing first quarter points than the collective offenses of Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow.  Taking it a step further, Manning’s offense is averaging only a touchdown in the first half of games, which is about half a point worse than last year’s offense.

Manning’s effect shows up is the second half.  The Denver offense has thus far almost doubled its point production in the third and fourth quarters; however, offense is only part of the story.

Tomorrow Denver Horse Force will break down the Broncos’ defensive performance by quarter in 2012, along with how the team can avoid comeback scenarios altogether.

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Broncos’ Peyton Manning getting teammates pumped for game vs. Patriots - Lest anyone think this is just another week at Dove Valley, the Broncos got a short pre-practice pep talk from Peyton Manning on Wednesday.  The quarterback said a few words before leading the post-stretch, pre-practice breakdown in the team’s first day of preparations for Sunday’s game at New England.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Patriots’ Tom Brady happy to see Broncos’ Peyton Manning in action - First, Tom Brady praised Peyton Manning to the Boston media Wednesday morning.  Then Manning returned the admiration to the Denver media after practice in the afternoon.  Finally, Brady told Denver reporters he was happy to see his old friend — and current football foe — back on the field after a year away because of injuries.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Embracing the Challenge - The Broncos’ Week 5 trip to New England gives the team a chance to avenge not one, but two of its worst losses of 2011.  Denver fell to the Patriots 41-23 in Week 15 last year, and had an even harder time with New England four weeks later, when the Broncos’ playoff run came to a halt in a 45-10 loss.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Notebook: Carrying Over Momentum - After dropping back-to-back games, the Broncos evened their record at 2-2 with a historic win over the Raiders in Week 4.  This week, the team will work toward its first win streak of the season, but to do so, it will have to take the 1,758-mile, cross-country trip to Foxborough, Mass.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

They Meet Again - Quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will square off for the 13th time in their careers on Sunday. It will mark the first game in NFL history featuring opposing quarterbacks that have both thrown 300 or more touchdown passes. But Manning stressed that Sunday’s contest is about the teams, not the signal callers.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Gronk: Denver’s defense is main concern - Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski says that as an offensive player, he is worried about the Denver Broncos’ defense — not Peyton Manning – as the two teams prepare for their Week 5 matchup at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.   Read more from ESPN >>>>

Pats’ improved offense faces tough test vs. Denver - The New England Patriots’ offense is rolling again as it heads into a game against a team whose defense it dominated twice last season.  Since then, of course, the Denver Broncos have made significant changes in the unit that allowed an average of 43 points and 480 yards in those two meetings.  Read more from Associated Press >>>>

Demaryius Thomas Honors Breast Cancer Survivors - Safeway and Cheerios are taking time to note breast cancer, especially its survivors. Even Denver Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas teamed up with the companies to honor survivors with new Cheerio’s box.  Read more from CBS4 >>>>

Kyle Orton Deserves to Start First Among Former Denver Broncos QBs - The Denver Broncos lost all their quarterbacks from last season which include Tim Tebow, Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn. These guys all play for teams that are not getting good play from their starting QBs right now. Orton deserves a shot to start before these other guys do, but it is less likely that he gets that chance before his former teammates.  Read more from Rant Sports >>>>

Denver Broncos kicker Matt Prater named AFC Special Teams Player of the Week - Four weeks into the NFL season and Denver Broncos kicker Matt Prater remains perfect.  He’s made all seven of his field goals, ranging in distances from 23-53 yards, booting home all 11 extra point attempts.  Read more from Examiner >>>>

Denver Broncos: 5 Ways the Team Will Step Up Despite Lack of Running Game - Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos were predicted to get back to the Super Bowl this season, but few predicted the increasingly ineffective running game to bog the Broncos down to a 1-2 start. Still, the Broncos aren’t in bad shape and have ways they will step up without a running game.  Read more from Bleacher Report >>>> 

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I didn’t go to Denver Broncos training camp last weekend intending to compare the experience to last year, but if you made the pilgrimage to Dove Valley the past two summers you know it’s difficult to not do just that.

I went to training camp Saturday for the same reasons other fans do – and this year, “other fans” seems to include the entire population of Denver.  I enjoy the intimacy of practice, the proximity to players I’ll soon see every Sunday (or Monday) on TV.  Very simply, I’m thrilled with the imminent return of football.

Very thrilled.

Especially thrilled this season.  You know why.  We all know why.

And it’s that palpable excitement that’s turned Dove Valley into the hottest spot in town.  Through the team’s first five public practices, the Broncos have set two Dove Valley attendance records, with four of the five practices exceeding 4,000 fans.  The lone practice that didn’t was halted and subsequently moved inside (away from fans) on a stormy Friday afternoon, and that paltry attendance was, well, pretty darn good:

• Thursday, July 26: 4,37
  • **New all-time Dove Valley record, breaking previous record of 3,103 set Aug. 1, 2010
• Friday, July 27: 2,917
  • Outdoor practice suspended
• Saturday, July 28:  4,443
  • New all-time Dove Valley record
• Sunday, July 29: 4,003
• Monday, July 30: 4,271

What specifically makes Training Camp 2012 different than Training Camp 2011?  For me, it’s twofold: players and fans, and that’s certainly a cause-and-effect type of relationship.  Players that affect fan turnout, which in turn molds the overall fan experience.

This guy just might be one of the reasons why fan turnout is record-setting at Dove Valley. (personal photo)

Players

1) Peyton Manning: This is the ‘Well, Duh’ reason, but it would be outrageous and downright silly to omit from the list.  The man who is arguably the greatest at his position ever is now wearing the Broncos orange and blue, though admittedly, it’s still a “Is this for real?” sight.  After missing an entire season with that much publicized neck, training camp has been our first opportunity to witness No. 18 in action.  How is his neck?  Has that affected his arm strength?  Can he hold up?  Is he worth that $90 million contract? For many, this is likely their first time seeing Manning in person, or at least up close where scrutinizing each millisecond of his effortlessly surgical tosses becomes a major plotline.

2) The Hype Factor: A direct offshoot of reason No. 1, the Broncos have gone from unlikely 2011 AFC West division champions under Tim Tebow to Super Bowl contender with Manning’s arrival.  Sure, a lot of things have to go right for a deep playoff run to happen, but there’s nothing like the talk of a Vince Lombardi Trophy to fire up an already loyal fan base.

3) Draft and Free Agency Acquisitions: Manning was the star offseason pick up for the Broncos, but he wasn’t the lone acquisition.  Denver made strides on defense, particularly the secondary, with CBs Drayton Florence and Tracy Porter (Go Hoosiers!) through free agency, and added some young talent to the defensive line with rookie Derek Wolfe.  Offensively the Broncos upgraded at tight end, and there’s intrigue with a pair of rookies – one we don’t mind seeing a lot of in 2012 in RB Ronnie Hillman, and one we’d rather not see much of in 2012.  (No offense to QB Brock Osweiler.  That’s just how it goes.)

But the training camp differences extend beyond position drills or first-team scrimmages.

Getting There

2011: For a Saturday 8:50 a.m. practice, we arrived at Dove Valley shortly before 7:30 a.m.  (Note: I have precious little reason to ever be up before 7:00 a.m. on a Saturday.  The truth is I have precious little reason to be awake before 9:30 a.m. on a Saturday.)  Having read parking was limited, and especially worried about attending a weekend practice, I was pleasantly surprised just how easy it was to secure a spot in the team’s parking lot.

Nonetheless, we joined a short line – behind 25 people or so – and waited until gates opened just before 8:00 a.m.   By the time gates opened, the line had grown considerably, but we had absolutely no problem at all finding a premium viewing space right around the 45-yard line…with ample leg room!

This was the line outside of the team’s practice facility nearly 90 minutes before the start of practice. (personal photo)

2012: Same wake up call.  Similar arrival time to Dove Valley.

And that’s where the similarities end.

The facility’s public parking lot was full and closed off.  Drat.

Some nearby lots, which belong to area businesses, were either full as well…or made it abundantly clear that if we parked there, our car wouldn’t be there when we returned.  Double drat.

We did, however, find a relatively nearby business sans threatening signage.

Ironically, we soon found ourselves back in the team parking lot right near where we parked last year…at the end of a line.  A long line.  A “How on earth are we going to get a good seat?” line.  Thanks to some ingenuity, we squeezed ourselves into this tiny little patch of grass at the 41-yard line, simply fantastic seats despite the sardine-like confines.  Goodbye leg room.

Support

2011: The Broncos were coming off a 4-12 season, a lengthy NFL lockout, and ripe with quarterback controversy – one fueled largely by the media.

What was seemingly a surefire deal that would send Kyle Orton to Miami fell through, leaving a player who once said he didn’t want to compete for the starting quarterback job competing for the starting quarterback job.

His main competition: Tim Tebow.

In the court of public opinion, at least the vocal public, it was Tebow or bust.  The situation, quite frankly, was awkward.  A pedestrian quarterback vying against a guy who may or may not have the chops to even play the position, yet who is among the most popular players in the league.

Well, that’s weird.

Where were you Saturday, July 28? Chances are you were at Broncos training camp. (personal photo)

2012: The crowd was much rowdier this time.  These fans are really into this team.  It’s not about a certain player, though Manning is a big, big deal, but while fans inevitably showed up to see Manning in action, they were also there to see everyone who came out of the locker room with him.

The fans at Saturday’s practice were attentive and responsive, paying close attention to plays.  They cheered for laser accuracy throws, solid catches, and broken up passes.  (They also cheered for a breeze, for what it’s worth.)

On Field Product

2011: So this is where it gets a little cliché by training camp reporting/recounting standards.  Last summer it was pretty obvious when you watched the quarterback cadre go through the motions that there was Orton…and then there was everyone else.  Orton was accurate.  Brady Quinn was hit or miss.  Tebow was mainly miss, but in a way where you could feel the crowd collectively deleting the poor throw from memory as if expecting a breakthrough was going to happen on the next snap.

The rest of the team?  Eh, Von Miller looked fast, but it’s hard to tell just what a pass rusher can be until he gets into a game situation.  Eric Decker looked good, so did Champ Bailey, and that was about it.

News faces. New excitement. It’s a great time to be a Broncos fan. (personal photo)

2012: Flash forward to the beginning of this year’s camp.  Whereas 2011 was more a question of “if”: if Tebow can throw a good ball, if Orton can keep passes away from defenders, if the defense can stand up to a running game…2012 is more a question of “how”: how close to perfect was that deep throw from Manning, how suffocating are those defensive backs, and how much is Denver’s young receiving corps going to improve under Manning’s tutelage.

The passes were crisp.  The secondary was blanketing.  The receivers were digging in on each play.  The offensive and defense lines were grinding.  For fans the overwhelming sentiment while witnessing all of this had to be, “Just how dominant can this team become?”

There are plenty of other observations I came away with from the most recent visit to Broncos Training Camp.  In the next few weeks I’ll have more on all those lingering roster questions from what’s going on at linebacker, to who is the early frontrunner, in my opinion to backup Manning should doomsday occur.  For now though, believe the hype.  We’re likely in store for a very different looking Denver Broncos.

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The remnants of the Denver Broncos’ golden era are everywhere.  Visit the club level at Sports Authority Field at Mile High and the giant draping banners depict the franchise’s Super Bowl heroes rather than current favorites.  Visit the condiments aisle in most Denver grocery stores and you’ll see Ed McCaffrey’s mustard shelved near Terrell Davis’ barbecue sauce.

Peyton Manning led the Colts to the second-highest winning percentage in the NFL from 2000-10. (Courtesy Chris Staley)

Somewhat painfully, these iconic champs have been out of the game for quite some time, a decade or more depending on the player.  Since the juggernaut teams of the late 90s, it’s kind of felt as though Denver’s most popular franchise has been relegated to second-tier status.  What’s interesting is the numbers tell a different story.

From 2000 to 2010, do you know where the Denver Broncos ranked in winning percentage?  Seventh.  Granted, they played fewer games than the teams ahead of them as Denver became a perpetual “bubble” playoff team, but seventh isn’t bad considering that of the six teams with better percentages, four of them were from the AFC and became conference champions in nine of the ten seasons (New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore).

So…in reality, even the lean years haven’t been that lean (although 2010 was pretty bad).  The Broncos managed to win 57% of their games with Brian Griese, Chris Miller, Gus Frerotte, Steve Beuerlein, Jake Plummer, Danny Kanell, Jarious Jackson, Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, and Tim Tebow all getting a turn as the team’s starting quarterback.

In that same time period (2000-2010), the Indianapolis Colts were the second-winningest team in the league, winning essentially 70% of their games, and averaging a league-high 26.3 points per game.  The Colts were bettered by the New England Patriots by seven-tenths of a percentage point.  Peyton Manning was the starting quarterback for every game during that period.

Sure, rosters change and players have aged, but the main point is the Broncos organization consistently fields winning teams.  Moreover, the Broncos have won without an elite quarterback at the helm.  Now that a quarterback who won 70% of games through the course of a decade has been inserted, a failure to finish above .500 would be statistically anomalous.

The Broncos have a tremendously difficult 2012 schedule, and the nagging fact remains that any road to the Super Bowl likely involves a toppling of the winningest organization of the last decade (New England).  However, if Peyton Manning’s neck truly is game-ready and holds up…well, Denver pantries may see a renaissance in player-pedaled condiments.

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Follow me on Twitter and you’ll notice I like taking pictures.  Being that phones have also become primary cameras, I’m usually snapping photos of just about everything that sparks my interest (this includes signs referencing Indiana or Hoosiers, and basically anything with an Angry Bird on it).  As a consequence, the cameras that I have that don’t also allow me to check my email or make calls have sat largely unused.

Recently though, I had to pull out one of the “just a cameras.”  Checking the memory card I stumbled across my last big photo shoot.  Dozens of snapshots from the Denver Broncos training camp in 2011.  My first reaction was, “Man, I can’t wait for football to return!”  As I scrolled through the photos, I had another thought, “Hmm, I’m gonna need to get back to camp this year as most of these photos are of people no longer with the Denver Broncos.”

Denver’s roster moves aren’t any sort of new revelation.  We’ve been aware of every move since that cold, disappointing, January night in New England.  It’s just the context of it all.  At the time the shutter clicked, many of the players in these shots weren’t just on the team, they were guys that would need to be key components if the Broncos had any chance of improving from a 4-12 season.  Now these pictures are like the end of a movie where there’s a freeze frame of each character accompanied by a blurb about what became of them:

“Brandon Lloyd reunited with Josh McDaniels after a midseason trade to St. Louis.  The Rams finished with a losing record and Lloyd and McDaniels are now with New England.”

“Kyle Orton was benched, then traded to the Chiefs.  He started against Denver in Week 17 and won…7-3.  He’s now backing up Tony Romo.”

“Eddie Royal continued to battle injury.  He signed with San Diego in 2012.”

“Brian Dawkins played with his usual passion until injury ended his season.  He retired in 2012.”

“Tim Tebow led the Broncos to the AFC Divisional Playoffs in one of the most insane, inexplicable runs in NFL history.  He was traded to the Jets in 2012 for a 4th round draft pick.”

It’s not like half the team departed, but think about those names, and what they were a year ago.  Chances are every Broncos fan at one point or another thought something like, “Hey, Brandon Lloyd is a weapon, and Eddie Royal is due to get back on the track he started with his rookie season.”  Or maybe, “You know, Orton can move the ball, and if Tebow gets involved more in the Red Zone this team could score some points.”

When the Broncos return to Dove Valley a little more than a month from now, the pictures are bound to be quite different.  So will the mental images fans have for the pending season.  Instead of Lloyd and Royal “maybe making some noise,” it will be “Thomas and Decker must deliver.”  Whereas there were infinite theories about how Orton and Tebow could effectively coexist, it’s now going to be about how many points Peyton Manning can put on the scoreboard…and how far the offensive line can keep defenders away from him.  The veteran leadership and defensive heart of Dawkins won’t be lurking in the secondary.  Now it will be about veterans holding tight in the secondary while Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, and a must-be-productive defensive front create chaos in two seconds or less.

Sitting at training camp last year, the overarching thought was, “Which of these guys might surprise us?”  This year, I have a feeling that sentiment will be replaced with, “Are these guys ready to win a Super Bowl?”

An entirely different picture indeed.

Follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter at @DENHorseForce and Facebook at www.facebook.com/denverhorseforce.

Broncos’ traffic jam at cornerback made Cassius Vaughn expendable - Today’s questions about the Broncos come from Ted Shih.  Q: With all of their problems at cornerback last year, did it make sense for the Broncos to trade Cassius Vaughn? And for a fullback?  A: Vaughn’s departure may be felt on special teams before it’s noticed in the secondary. He would have been one of the Broncos’ top kickoff returners this year.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>

Broncos Add Defensive Quality Control Coach - The Broncos had an opening at defensive quality control coach after Wayne Nunnely retired and Jay Rodgers was promoted to defensive line coach.  The team has filled that position with the hiring of Cory Undlin, who joins the team after spending the last three seasons under Broncos Defensive Coordinator Jack Del Rio as Jacksonville’s defensive backs coach.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Saccomano Honored for 35 Years - On Tuesday, the Broncos held their 13th annual Employee Service Awards, and one employee in particular took home the biggest honor.  Vice President of Corporate Communications Jim Saccomano (pictured above, left) has been with the team for 35 years, and Team President Joe Ellis stood in front of the room to say a few words about the Broncos veteran.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Learning From Manning - Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Matthew Willis, three wide receivers that return to the Broncos’ roster from last season, have started a combined 21 games in their careers.  Their new quarterback, Peyton Manning, has started 208.  That experience is something that the wide receivers are taking advantage of, learning as much as they can from Manning during OTAs.  “It’s been great,” Decker said about working with Manning. “He’s such an intelligent person, it’s unbelievable. He digests (information) and tells us what is going through his mind.”  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Eric Decker: Broncos’ focus on field without Tim Tebow - When Tebowmania was happening in Denver, Broncos players dutifully said it wasn’t a distraction. Now that Tebow is gone, they all seem happy for the change.  ”To be honest with you, it is nice just to kind of focus back on football, and we talk football and there’s not — there’s still a lot of excitement here with the football,” wide receiver Eric Decker told KDSP-FM, via SportsRadioInterviews.com. “I mean, he is a great teammate. I respect him greatly. But again, like you were saying, a lot of the focus right now is on football, is really talking about how we’re going to form this team to win some ballgames next year.”  Read more from NFL.com >>>>

Denver Broncos Greatest Defensive Plays: #4 - Once again we return to the early 1990′s for another huge moment in my adolescent fanhood of the Denver Broncos.  This one came in the regular season and helped ensure I would idolize Steve Atwater for the rest of his career. Naturally, we are talking about Atwater blowing up Kansas City Chiefs fullback, Christian “The Nigerian Nightmare” Okoye.  Read more from Bronco Talk >>>>

NFL Rumors: Indianapolis Colts Wanted Kyle Orton in 2011? – The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a very ugly 2011 season. Heading into 2012, the team looks extremely different, and a lot of the pieces from that miserable 2011 unit are now gone.  Former general manager, Bill Polian (who was fired during the offseason), says that if the NFL had made the trade deadline longer last year, he would have considered trading for Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton.  Read more from Opposing Views >>>>

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The conventional thinking in Denver, and at probably at Dove Valley, is that come draft day the Broncos need to finally address some priorities that have been left to linger and nag for several seasons.  This thinking is not wrong…the Denver Broncos need a clogging defensive tackle, could use some secondary depth, and probably owe it to themselves to get a running back that will either push Knowshon Moreno to finally justify his employment, or take his job.

That’s all well and good, but in the spirit of drafting for great players instead of needed positions, it’s worth at least looking at some other positions, and the talent that’s realistically available.  What better place to start than wide receiver?

A receiver like Marvin McNutt could thrive in the Peyton Manning-led Broncos offense. (courtesy GoIowaState)

The pressure is on the Broncos’ receiving corps.  If the passing game sputters early in the season the blame likely isn’t going to fall on the quarterback.  It was possible to blame Kyle Orton’s inability to extend a play, or Tim Tebow’s inability to seize one quickly.  These are no longer viable blame outlets when Peyton Manning is your quarterback.  The passing attack will in all likelihood be the engine of this offense.  Denver’s current receivers show promise, but if there’s one thing modern elite teams have proven, it’s that you really can’t have too many strong receivers.

I wish I could tell you my prospect analysis includes film study, deep statistical analysis, and all sorts of exotic data manipulation.  It doesn’t.  No…I go by the simple premise of “dudes that were consistently good in college have a pretty good chance of remaining good as professionals.”  If Denver were to draft a receiver it likely wouldn’t come in either of the first two rounds.  So that moves Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, and Kendall Wright off the board.  Heck, maybe Denver waits until the 4th round to start thinking receiver.  When, and if they do, there is one clear choice: Marvin McNutt.

If you happened to catch a Hawkeyes game this season, you probably saw McNutt.  You probably saw him in the end zone as well.  The 6’3″, 216 pound senior is currently rated as the 22nd best receiving prospect in the draft.  Yet everything about him screams this is a guy that every team in the league will wish they’d moved on three years from now.

Consider McNutt leaves Iowa as the program’s career leader in receiving yardage, and second in receptions.  He co-owns the school’s record for single-season receptions, and is first in single-season receiving yardage.  If you like points with your yards, he’s got you covered as well.  McNutt is Iowa’s all-time leader in both single-season and career receiving touchdowns (the latter record he set against my Hoosiers last season) and ranks tenth all-time in career scoring.  McNutt, a converted quarterback, played wide receiver for 3 years.

McNutt doesn’t have the speed, size, or jittery quickness of the top-rated receiving prospects, but his potential value for the Broncos is expressed perfectly in this evaluation by NFLDraftScout.com, “could find a fit as a strong, possession target with his hand-eye coordination, body control and soft hands.”

Translation: On a team that’s going to throw the ball, this is the guy who gets open and makes the catches on 3rd-and-6.

Is Marvin McNutt the next Marvin Harrison?  Probably not, but like Harrison he could very well be that difference-maker who’s success is entirely predicated on his ability to consistently get himself open.  McNutt went to Iowa as a quarterback, converted to a receiver, and in three seasons put up program-leading numbers in the Big Ten.  He’s fearless, clutch, and consistent.  McNutt is currently forecasted as a 5-6 round prospect, yet everything about him gives the impression that the Broncos will look very smart if they take him in the 4th, especially once he starts making an impact on the field.

The front office could surprise everyone come draft day, but as it stands now, the team’s first few draft selections will likely be somewhat predictable.  It’s what the Broncos can do in the middle and later rounds that could bolster an already improved team.  Marvin McNutt could prove to be an integral addition.

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