The moment the lower-third graphic flashes “SELECTION” during the NFL Draft, just about every fan base of every team immediately starts to wonder if the name about to appear on screen will ultimately be the next great find. For the same reasons we buy lottery tickets, go to casinos, and allow the E-Trade baby to continue his reign of unmitigated terror (dislike!), the draft is yet another chance to believe against statistics.

The gimmick of “grading” drafts has actually become so cliche it’s spawned its own antithetical cliche of explaining how drafts can’t be truly graded for five years. So let’s go ahead and not do any of that…or at least say we won’t.

Instead, we’ll take the same basic premise of prognosticating the impact of the Denver Broncos’ latest draft haul, but base it off of position rather than player. It seems appropriate to take this approach as the Broncos are not a fundamentally flawed team. As much as some may point to the team’s earlier-than-expected playoff exit, there is no unit on the current roster that remotely approaches woeful status. Yes, the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, and Atlanta Falcons bruised the secondary, but those teams did the same to most every secondary. (It’s also worth noting an equally big factor in Denver losing was its own offense’s inability to adequately respond.)

For our purposes, let’s assume the Broncos were more or less in the ballpark in their assessment of talent (i.e. the personnel crew didn’t greatly overvalue or undervalue any of the selections). With that in mind, we’ll go through each unit, and what influence the latest crop of Broncos should have on each unit.

Defensive Line

Addressed in Rounds: 1, 5

Positions Drafted: DT, DE

2012 Impressions: An improved, but still slightly suspect unit. Strong edge rush ability, but significant interior lapses. Inability to sustain pressure in middle against pass, and against strong running games (especially Houston and the Kansas City Chiefs).

2013 Projection: Additions of Sylvester Williams and veteran Terrance Knighton will greatly improve unit’s ability to occupy blockers, possibly making edge rush more effective. Loss of Elvis Dumervil should be obsolete with additions of veteran free agent Shaun Phillips and rookie Quanterus Smith (if healthy). True tackles will allow Denver more personnel packages with versatile Derek Wolfe. Kevin Vickerson and Mitch Unrein allow interior depth with potential for continued development or additional minutes by Malik Jackson.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Um, maybe. The Broncos should greatly benefit from the added size in the interior, but the big men must have stellar conditioning to make an impact against a hyper tempo offense.

Secondary

Addressed in Round: 3

Position Drafted: CB

2012 Impressions: Much of what the Broncos did on defense began with the premise that Champ Bailey would take away one side of the field (this mainly happened…yet again). Strong performances by committee opposite Bailey. Susceptible to getting beat deep on the outside, and frequently faced interior mismatches with above-average or better tight ends and slot receivers. Difficulty against elite passing attacks.

2013 Projection: See above. Nothing against Kayvon Webster, but the third rounder probably isn’t jumping Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie, Chris Harris, Tony Carter, and perhaps even Omar Bolden. Sure, injuries and heavy use of sub-packages could get Webster some reps, but this wasn’t a “play now” pick. As much as we’d like to wish otherwise, there likely wasn’t a corner in this draft who would’ve given Denver a decided edge against elite passing attacks. So long as the Broncos get solid special teams play out of Webster, any flashes of competence on defense this season would be a bonus.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Probably not. The best Denver can hope for is enough drop-off between Wes Welker and Danny Amendola to make the slot threat a wash. Denver should continue to hold up well against New England’s receivers, but the tight ends still remain a conundrum without a clear solution.

Running Back

Rookie running back Montee Ball was the Wisconsin offensive workhorse. (courtesy Bflbarlow)

Addressed in Round: 2

Position Drafted: RB

2012 Impressions: An effective non-threat. Solid all-around contributions by Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno. Ronnie Hillman billed as home-run hitter, but only showed it in spurts. In general, the ground game was something opposing defenses had to be mindful of, but not scheme against to stop. McGahee and Moreno were as valuable as blockers and receiving out of the backfield as they were running. Unit was good enough to allow Denver to sustain late-game drives with the lead.

2013 Projection: Probably better, maybe the same. Montee Ball enters the league as a workhorse back with a strong record of production at Wisconsin. One frequent concern is he took too much of a beating in college and injuries will catch up to him. This is pretty baseless. You could easily say guys who only started two years in college lack the durability to stay injury-free in the pros. The injury discussion is meaningful though, as Denver has endured successive seasons of injuries to its backfield. Ideally, Ball makes it possible for Denver to dismiss his cousin (not really) Lance. If that can happen this unit can sustain a suitable, if not mind-blowing level of play.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Yes…provided injuries are avoided, and what Denver does with its roster. Ultimately, the Broncos would be best served to be in a situation where Hillman is no longer asked to be something he’s not (a pounding interior runner). This can be accomplished with a committee of Moreno and Ball, or McGahee, Moreno, and Ball, etc. Depth and health from the bigger backs will allow the Broncos to fuel an up-tempo offense with a fresh backfield and multi-dimensional depth.

Receiver

Addressed in Round: 5

Position Drafted: WR

2012 Impressions: Statistically strong, but not quite mesmerizing. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker teamed to form one of the league’s most productive duos. Brandon Stokely epitomized reliable in the slot. Aside from them…not much else to love. Capable of big plays. Could disappear at times. No one player consistently inspired spectators to ask, “How is that guy always getting so open?”

2013 Projections: On paper, scary. With a season of experience both Thomas and Decker should now be extremely comfortable with the abilities and expectations of Peyton Manning. Still, both need to develop as route runners and develop more dependability in getting open. Addition of Welker may greatly assist with this. The Broncos now have exactly 1/5 of the league’s 2012 reception leaders on the roster. Still lack a bona fide downfield threat. Tavarres King could be that piece as he’s billed as a quick-start speed guy. If this proves true and he develops consistency (which he’ll need if he wants to see any playing time with Manning), the Broncos passing game alone could pose a world of problems of league defenses.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Better be…downing elite teams relies heavily on putting points on the board as quickly and often as possible. Denver’s points must come fluidly through the air.

Offensive Line

Addressed in Round: 6

Position Drafted: OT

2012 Impressions: Solid unit that too often contended with injuries showing a noticeable lack of all-around depth. While the line inevitably wasn’t able to keep Manning upright all season, it did keep him from getting drilled by unobstructed rushers for the most part. Average run-blocking ability. Run-blocking did improve when Denver was playing with large leads, but then again, doesn’t everything?

The Broncos added depth at O-line with the signing of San Diego’s Louis Vasquez. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

2013 Projections: The addition of Virginia Tech’s Vinston Painter doesn’t beef up this unit. However, the addition of San Diego’s Louis Vasquez helps tremendously. A little more fortune on the health front should make this unit stingy once again, and hopefully slightly more effective on the ground. The Broncos don’t need a great running game to win a championship, but if they manage to find one it makes a Super Bowl run all the more likely. Denver has attempted to quietly reinforce the line through late round draft selections the past two years…the hope is returning veterans and free agency fillers allow these players to develop.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Yes. Vasquez should provide needed strength against big D-Lineman (including massive Vince Wilfork). With the Broncos receiving threats its unlikely teams will be willing to send extra personnel after Manning on a regular basis. If this unit can ratchet up its win/loss record on the line of scrimmage, it will be tough predicament for defenses: Blitz Manning and risk big plays, or let him cut you apart four yards at a time.

Quarterback

Addressed in Round: 7

Position Drafted: QB…shocking, huh

2012 Impressions: (Gleeful laughter)

2013 Projections: STAY HEALTHY, PEYTON!! (If this doesn’t happen, I’ll be real honest, it’s not really going to matter that much that Denver drafted Zac Dysert.) The one thing I will say about Dysert is that while he was likely drafted to compete with Brock Osweiler, he’s more like one of those horses trainers bring in to keep their Triple Crown hopefuls company. While it remains a mystery whether Osweiler will truly be the quarterback of the future, the Broncos obviously want to nudge him without threatening him. The team’s gamble is that Manning stays healthy for at least another full season. Right now, throwing Osweiler in as a starter likely puts him into action ahead of schedule…never a good thing.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: You bet with Manning. Not a chance without.

The Denver Broncos emerged as a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2012. By all accounts they’re entering 2013 with more upgrades than downgrades. The team finally appears to have landed a key player in a position they’ve struggled to fill in past drafts (defensive tackle), and bolstered other positions that weren’t necessarily broken, but needed some extra umph. All in all, the one thing we can confidently say is the Broncos emerged from the free agency frenzy and draft without obviously screwing up (Dumervil weirdness aside). This team isn’t far from a championship, but needs to be proven right on its personnel decisions quickly, as the window to a Super Bowl inches ever closer to closed.

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Disappointing: performance, coaching, execution, season.

As Broncos playoff chokes go, this one still probably doesn’t top Jacksonville in 1996, but it’s still a choke, and a big one at that. There’s so much to discuss, and what I don’t want to do is start irrationally calling for anyone’s head or major roster moves, but if anything, this game does leave the Broncos and supporters with a few tough questions.

One overall note on the weather. Yes, it was bitterly cold. It was the same weather for the Baltimore Ravens though. Do the Broncos win in more temperate conditions? Maybe, but maybe not. If any player can’t perform on a cold January evening they’re in the wrong line of work.

Let’s begin with what went well. This won’t take long…unfortunately, and that’s why we’re here.

The highlight: Trindon Holliday

Holliday had a masterful performance. Two returns for touchdowns, one on a punt (90 yards) the other on the kickoff (104 yards) to begin the second half. He was tremendous, and delivered a performance that would have by itself won most games. The problem was his offense missed opportunities, and his defense failed to show up.

Now, to the less appealing: Offense

On the plus side the offense generated 21 points. Not great, but not terrible. Still, we’ve grown accustomed to seeing more. Peyton Manning didn’t have a great game, and his three turnovers serve as a haunting ending to his season. His first interception appeared to be more an instance of Eric Decker having a ball bounce off his hands. (There was contact early on the play that wasn’t called, but regardless, Decker was in position to catch the pass.)

Manning apparently isn’t at the level of Tom Brady in the eyes of this officiating crew as the officials ruled a fumble on basically the same type of tuck play that launched Brady to a Super Bowl. I suppose there are alternate translations of the famous (or infamous) “tuck rule.”

Peyton Manning had three turnovers in the Denver Broncos’ loss to the Baltimore Ravens. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Manning’s final turnover was ugly, and decision he would obviously like to have back – as would we. Decker and Demaryius Thomas either froze in the cold or under the pressure. Neither was particularly impressive, or particularly reliable.

Knowshon Moreno may be a tragic case. Once again, with things moving in the right direction he leaves the game. It’s a really tough thing to say, but are we back to having the conversation about whether he can be a fixture on this roster? To be fair, we don’t know the extent of Moreno’s injury, other than it was a knee. His official status, per the team, was ‘questionable’ for return, but he didn’t. My guess is if Moreno was fine, he would have returned. No offense to Ronnie Hillman, but Moreno brought added dimension to the Broncos offense. He can do more than run; he can pick up blitzes, too. And that was a huge asset for this offense late in the season.

Hillman performed admirably. Lance Ball had no idea what he was doing. Jacob Hester was there, and that’s about it.

The offensive line wasn’t lousy, but wasn’t great. It felt as though the unit played the Ravens’ defensive line to a draw. Didn’t win, didn’t lose. This unit can’t shoulder much blame, but they deserve some. Failing to outright win in the trenches is a recipe for playoff exits.

And now to the ridiculously bad: Defense.

Observation A: The Broncos have yet to develop a top-notch defensive line against the pass. Edge rushers are cool, but how many times did we see the Ravens calmly steer Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller deep into the backfield, allowing Joe Flacco to step up with virtually no one in his face? The line continued to play well against the run.

Observation B: It seems like taboo to say, but the conversation probably needs to be had: Has Champ Bailey reached a point where he’s getting by more on reputation than ability? The Ravens made a mockery of his coverage. It wasn’t even due to double moves or elaborate picks. He straight up could not keep up with Torrey Smith. Bailey is still a talented corner, but if all teams have to do is play an extended version of pitch and catch this defense will look a lot worse. And on that note…

Observation C: Rahim Moore. He put together a great season. I don’t believe he undid it all with one really, really bad play. Moore will be the goat, but in general the Broncos secondary (aside from one nice pass defense by Mike Adams) was abysmal. Moore’s play will be viewed in Baltimore as a miracle of sorts, but it was a game-long failure by this unit.

John Fox = Mr. Conservative. And sometimes that’s not a good thing. (personal photo)

And finally…the sad: Coaching

John Fox. Why? It’s the playoffs. Coming out of the two minute warning the Broncos faced 3rd-and-7 approaching midfield. Fox called the “run the ol’ clock down run” with a predictable result: short. Was this due to Manning’s arm being totally numb? Was Manning suffering from a crippling migraine? No. The coaching staff’s conservative philosophy ultimately paved the way for the Broncos to blow this game.

I’m not going to assess any win probability index of passing in an attempt to convert versus running to drain the clock and then punting. I’ll simply say Fox lacked guts. Sure, the pass could have been incomplete thereby stopping the clock, but a first down seals the game. Fox chickened out. As the Ravens still had to score a touchdown to tie and had no timeouts, the additional 30 seconds are negligible. By that I mean the Ravens are likely throwing the ball on every play regardless of the clock. In that situation it’s more an issue of whether your opponent can hit a few big plays to gain the necessary yardage than whether they have enough time to do it.

Running on 3rd-and-7 signaled Fox hoped the clock, rather than his players, would bail the Broncos out. He was wrong, and deserves every bit the blame Moore may receive.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that this Broncos unit will likely remain mostly intact. They now have the shared experience of understanding the disappointment that comes with failing to execute. Move the officiating and weather aside. The Denver Broncos were the team to decide who won and lost this game. Unfortunately the Broncos did more than enough to lose it themselves. They weren’t overmatched, but rather drastically underperformed. Now they get six months to figure out how to never feel this way again.

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With all the pomp and circumstance – or certain lack thereof – that comes with having a playoff bye, the Denver Broncos resumed practice Tuesday ahead of Saturday’s divisional round game against the Baltimore Ravens.

Even though he cannot play this weekend, running back Willis McGahee was eligible to return to practice. It was McGahee’s first action on the field since Nov. 18 when he suffered a torn right MCL and compression fracture to his right tibia against the San Diego Chargers. The Broncos put McGahee on injured reserve with the designated for return label. If the Broncos win Saturday, McGahee will have been out the mandated eight weeks and could suit up for the AFC championship game on Jan. 20.

Denver Broncos RB Willis McGahee returned to practice Tuesday, but cannot play in Saturday’s game. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

McGahee’s replacement, Knowshon Moreno, has averaged 85.0 rushing yards a game.

Guard Chris Kuper (ankle) and wide receiver Trindon Holliday (ankle) participated in practice. Each missed the Broncos’ regular-season finale. Left tackle Ryan Clady, who was limited in practice last week with an undisclosed injury, was on the field today.

The only Broncos player not participating in Tuesday’s practice was cornerback Tracy Porter, who suffered a concussion on Dec. 23.

Other practice notes: The Broncos were in pads … McGahee practiced in a black jersey, indicating he isn’t yet ready for contact … Peyton Manning sported two gloves in anticipation of Saturday’s weather … The Broncos are required to release an injury report after Wednesday’s practice.

More Honors for Manning

Peyton Manning has been named the Colorado Sports Hall of Fame professional Athlete of the Year. Olympic swimmer – and Denver Broncos fan – Missy Franklin was named the amateur Athlete of the Year.

Just Monday, Manning was nominated for the FedEx Player of the Year. Last week, Manning was named AFC Offensive Player of the Month for December.

The Colorado Sports Hall of Fame will honor Manning and Franklin in April.

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It’s been just more than a month since the Denver Broncos played the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Denver left with a win, but if you remember, the Broncos didn’t look like that dominating team we were expecting to see. In fact, you might say the Chiefs gave Denver its biggest challenge in the past several months.  The Broncos won 17-9 in a game full of…blah.  The offense wasn’t crisp, and struggled to string together solid drives.  The defense wasn’t superb, giving up 148 rushing yards, but did manage to keep the offensive-challenged Chiefs from doing much scoring damage.  Then again, the Chiefs’ offense does a pretty good job of that on its own.

Despite the loss, Kansas City outplayed Denver.  The Chiefs executed while the Broncos sputtered.

In Sunday’s regular-season finale, the AFC West champion Broncos, winners of ten straight, are playing for playoff seeding.  A Broncos’ victory means one of two things:

• Denver is assured a Wild Card weekend bye, and will host a divisional round game (and possibly the AFC championship game) as the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
• Denver is assured a Wild Card weekend bye, and will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs as the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

For the latter to happen, the Houston Texans must lose Sunday at Indianapolis against the Chuck Pagano-led Colts.  It’s rather well documented by now I fully see this happening.

When Kansas City has the ball: I was tempted to just cut and paste my Nov. 25 game preview here, but I won’t.  Still, nothing much has changed.   The Chiefs offense is rooted in its running game, notably Jamaal Charles, who rushed for 107 yards against the Broncos in Week 12.  In fact, Charles is the only back to rush for at least 100 yards during Denver’s 10-game win streak.

The Chiefs running game ranks fifth in the NFL at 153.5 yards a game.   Charles’ 1,456 rushing yards leads the AFC, and he actually has more touchdown runs of 80+ yards this season than Minnesota Vikings star Adrian Peterson – three to two.

The Chiefs bullied the Broncos’ defensive front in Week 12.  Kansas City will need another repeat performance to have any real chance of winning.

When Denver has the ball: The Nov. 25 meeting marked the return to relevance for Knowshon Moreno.  At the time, Broncos fans expected little of Moreno, based largely on his ho-hum young career, and were counting down the days until Willis McGahee returned to game action.

Peyton Manning was given a concussion test in the Broncos’ Week 12 meeting at the Chiefs. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Moreno has surpassed expectations and continues to impress with his steady, unselfish play, but the Broncos offense will revolve around the passing game – as long as Peyton Manning is at the helm.

The Chiefs defense applied pressure on Manning in the Week 12 game; remember, Manning was even given a concussion test after one particular hit.

In the last meeting, Kansas City effectively cut the game into small pieces, forcing Denver to pick up yardage bits at a time. Despite Kansas City’s abysmal record, the Chiefs defense is certainly of the caliber of the teams Denver will see in the playoffs. The Broncos’ ability to run the ball effectively enough to loosen coverage for the aerial attack will be important. As will scoring points.

The Denver offense produced ten points in the first half the past two weeks, despite looking dominant. If the Broncos can not only continue to engineer drives in the early going, but also cap those drives with touchdowns and points, there could be a chance to get Manning out of the game and not risk another concussion test…one which would be terrible if he failed.

Prediction

Denver 30, Kansas City 9

The Broncos end the regular season with 11 straight wins, a Wild Card weekend bye, and at least one home playoff game.  It’s worth noting the Texans at Colts game is an early kickoff, so while the team may not be “officially” monitoring what’s happening in Indy, something tells me they’ll know the outcome, particularly if it’s a Colts victory, before kicking off from Sports Authority Field.

For those headed out to the game:

• Tailgate Lots open at 8:00 a.m.
• Parking open at 9:00 a.m.
• Mountain Village opens at 10:30 a.m.
• Premium Gates open 11:00 a.m.
• Stadium Gates open at 12:00 p.m.

Other News and Notes:

• Kickoff forecast is 35 degrees and sunny.
• CBS broadcast crew is Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts.
•  Head referee is Ed Hochuli.

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Welcome to Quarter Calls, DHF’s quarter-by-quarter breakdown of each Denver Broncos game. Instead of a live game thread, Quarter Calls is a quick-hit summary of the big story of each quarter. It can be a general mood or theme, play, penalty, injury, whatever.

If you prefer real time analysis and commentary, follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter. As always, I’ll be tweeting throughout the game.

Go Broncos!

Pregame: Denver Broncos inactives:

• G Chris Kuper
• WR Andre Caldwell
• FB Chris Gronkowski
• TE Julius Thomas
• QB Caleb Hanie
• CB Tony Carter
• DT Sealver Siliga

Cleveland Browns inactives:

• TE Jordan Cameron
• WR Mohamed Massaquoi
• DB Tashaun Gipson
• RB Brandon Jackson
• LB Adrian Moten
• DL Ishmaa’ily Kitchen
• OL Jarrod Shaw

1st Quarter

(2:33 p.m.) Great start for the Denver Broncos.  Not even three minutes in, Peyton Manning found Demaryius Thomas for a 22-yard touchdown.

Defensively, however, the Broncos looked a bit slow out of the gates, making the Cleveland Browns offense look like giant-killers.  Luckily their opening drive stalled in the red zone, and Cleveland settled on a field goal.

Tidbits: Cornerback Tracy Porter is in the locker room after a hard hit.  Running back Knowshon Moreno already has 30 rushing yards.

2nd Quarter

(3:28 p.m.) “Second verse, same as the first!” 

The good: Eric Decker’s 10-yard touchdown reception to cap off another impressive drive.

The kinda bad: Denver’s defense has yet to make a big play, but has been successfully keeping Cleveland from reaching the end zone.

Cleveland’s defense has given up a lot of yards – 285 to be exact – but has limited the Broncos’ scoring opportunities.  Looking at Denver’s stats through one half, it reads more like a team that should have 28 points on the board – not 14.

This still feels like a game the Broncos should win, but you hate to see those upset ingredients – such as the Manning end zone interception to end the half. It’s the type of play that allows the Browns to remain confident. Hopefully it’s also the type of play that motivates Denver to execute, finish drives, and put the Brown away for good in the second half.

3rd Quarter

(4:16 p.m.) The Broncos are finally showing why they’re the superior team.

Other than giving up a field goal, Denver has looked in complete and total control.  The Broncos added another touchdown and are threatening again.

Defensively, the Broncos pass rush is finally stepping up, with Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller playing like their usual selves.  Browns backup quarterback Colt McCoy played briefly in the 3rd quarter in for Weeden, who seems to have a shoulder injury of some kind.

This game really isn’t in doubt, so sit back and count down until the ten-game win streak becomes official.

4th Quarter

(5:13 p.m.)  Well, well, well…that was never really in question, was it?

From my perspective, it didn’t appear Cleveland played a bad game. The Browns turned the ball over once on a muffed punt, but also intercepted Manning to finish even on giveaway/takeaways. What really showed is that despite a solid effort by the Browns, it would’ve taken a virtuoso performance for them to hang with the Broncos. Denver wasn’t so much flashy as much as deadly efficient.

The game was finished before the halfway mark of the 4th quarter. While the drama of last season’s antics was exciting, it’s been fun to see the Broncos put teams away with time to spare the past few weeks.

The Denver Broncos are winners of ten straight games, and remain in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

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The red-hot Denver Broncos have been anything but in December as of late.

Before this season, the team was a combined 5-14 in the month of December since 2008.

Thankfully it’s been a different tune this season.

Now riding a nine-game win streak and with sights set on the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs, the Broncos finish the 2012 regular season with back-to-back home games – against teams with losing records.

First up…the 5-9 Cleveland Browns.

With 16 rookies on the active roster, ten of whom have started, the young Browns experienced a lot of growing pains early on in the season.  Now finally playing cohesive football, the Browns have won three of their last four games, thanks in part to improved play of quarterback Brandon Weeden and the steady work of running back Trent Richardson.

The playoff-bound Broncos are guaranteed no lower than the AFC’s No. 3 seed.  Sitting right now at No. 2 behind the Houston Texans, the Broncos control their own destiny in securing a first-round bye.

Ask the players and coaches and they’ll tell you no one is thinking playoff seeding – only the remaining regular season games.  That’s likely true, but think of it this way: If the Broncos win, they’ll be rewarded in playoff seeding.

When Cleveland has the ball:  Rookie Trent Richardson is 230-lbs. of hard-to-bring-down running back.  Broncos linebacker Wesley Woodyard describes Richardson as a “workhorse” who looks just as strong on his 30th carry as his first.

Cleveland Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson has scored six touchdowns in the last four games. (courtesy Erik Drost)

Richardson’s 12 touchdowns in 2012 is tied for second-most in the NFL.  He’s racked up six of those touchdowns in the Browns’ last four games. Richardson needs 103 yards to reach 1,000 rushing yards on the season, but Sunday could be the young workhorse’s biggest defensive challenge yet.  Denver’s run defense is ranked second in the NFL, and has given up only one rushing touchdown since Week 6.

The stellar play of Denver’s front seven means Richardson will have to earn every yard he gets on the ground…or will rely on short-yardage passing situations to rack up yards after the catch.  Richardson leads the Browns with 48 catches this season, and we’ve seen the Broncos defense stumble at times against opposing tight ends and running backs in the passing game.

Cleveland’s offensive line is anchored by left tackle Joe Thomas. The five-time Pro Bowler will take on Elvis Dumervil as his primary assignment.  Thomas is among the best at his position in the league, as is Dumveril, making this one-on-one matchup perhaps the game’s most intriguing.

If Thomas holds his own, the Broncos’ on-the-edges pass rush might be just on-the-edge with linebacker Von Miller, who didn’t register a sack in last week’s victory against the Baltimore Ravens.  Miller has 16 sacks on the season and figures to add to that tally against Brandon Weeden, your classic pocket passer who doesn’t like to roll out or run.

Weeden, like so many other rookie quarterbacks (even the 29-year-old ones), has struggled with turnovers this season, throwing more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (14).  He tends to force the football into coverage mismatches, resulting in the aforementioned INTs or batted down passes.  Given the Broncos’ opportunistic secondary, it’s a safe bet Weeden will add to his turnover total Sunday.

When Denver has the ball:  I hope don’t jinx the team with the following statement:

It seems the Broncos have righted the ship when it comes to turnovers.

Denver’s turnover margin is now 0, which still trails the league’s other elite teams by a lot, but recent trends prove promising.  The Broncos have been in the minus side of the turnover margin for most of the season, but didn’t have a single turnover against the Ravens – Denver’s first turnover-free game of the season.  It’s now been more than a month since Denver lost a fumble, the last coming Nov. 18 at home against the San Diego Chargers.

Ball security will once again be crucial for the Broncos’ success Sunday, as the Browns are tied for fifth in the NFL with 28 takeaways.

Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno, inactive for eight games this season, has gone from being relegated to scout team duties to being Denver’s unlikely newest (old) offensive weapon.  In his last two games, Moreno has rushed for 119 and 118 yards respectively, and has no turnovers since replacing Willis McGahee in late-November.  Cleveland’s defense allows 120.6 rushing yards per game, good news for Moreno and rookie speedster Ronnie Hillman.

With right guard Chris Kuper (ankle) likely sidelined another week, pass protection could be a liability.  Here’s a staggering, tell-all statistic: Peyton Manning has been sacked 21 times this season, 19 of those happened with Kuper out of the lineup.  (Kuper has started five games this season.)

Moreno has done a decent job of getting to the free rusher and protecting Manning; even so, Peyton took some big hits in last week’s win against Baltimore.  Manning has shown he’s sturdy and quickly bounces back up, but seeing your $90 million quarterback with a surgically repaired neck knocked to the ground is always one of those sights you’d rather not see.

Prediction

Denver 33, Cleveland 17

It seems I write this every week, but here goes:

If Cleveland hopes to pull out the victory, two things need to happen: 1) Denver turnovers, and 2) Keep the Broncos’ high-scoring offense on the sidelines where Peyton Manning can’t do any damage.  Cleveland isn’t equipped to beat Denver in a shootout, and need to keep the Broncos under 20 for any real chance at victory.

The young Browns are trying to close out the season strong, but the Broncos are just too good in too many areas to let this one slip away.

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Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno is your Week 15 AFC Offensive Player of the Week. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Who saw this coming a month ago?

Denver Broncos running back Knowhon Moreno has been named AFC Offensive Player of the Week.  In the Broncos’ Week 15 34-17 thumping of the Baltimore Ravens, Moreno had 22 carries for 118 yards and a touchdown.   He also caught two passes for eight yards.

After being inactive for much of the season, Moreno has surpassed expectations in replacing Broncos’ leading rusher Willis McGahee, who is eligible to return to game action should Denver reach the AFC championship game.

Since replacing McGahee four games ago, Moreno has rushed for 391 yards. During that time, he also has 96 receiving yards.

Read why I wrote Tuesday about Moreno >>>>

Denver now has seven different players with Player of the Week honors this season – in all three phases of the game.

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With the dust now settled on Sunday’s thorough plucking of the Baltimore Ravens, here are a few additional thoughts on the Denver Broncos latest win.

Dare to Dream - The Broncos definitive victory paired with the New England Patriots’ loss puts Denver in the driver’s seat for a first round playoff bye. The talk right now is focused on Denver winning out and finishing as the two-seed.  I still think heading into Week 16 the focus should remain on the coveted No. 1 seed, given the remaining competition for the Houston Texans.

The Texans’ Week 16 foe, the Minnesota Vikings, are as much on the NFC playoff bubble as a team can get.  Combine that with Adrian Peterson’s very real shot of setting a significant NFL record, and the Vikings truly have everything to play for right now.  If Minnesota gets Peterson going and pulls out a victory in Houston, and the Broncos take care of business against the Cleveland Browns, it sets up Week 17 as the deciding week for seeding.

Denver hosts the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston travels to Indianapolis to play the Colts.  A Colts win this week guarantees them a playoff spot, but don’t underestimate Indy’s desire to win what will likely be the home finale of an amazing season.  The Colts remain hopeful head coach Chuck Pagano will return just in time for the regular-season finale.  The young Colts have exceeded expectations all season long – not to mention re-engerized a fan base.  The culmination of the Chuckstrong movement is not a situation any team would want to walk into if it needed a big road win.

The Broncos must take care of the schedule in front of them, but until Sunday proves otherwise, I still think there’s a better than average chance Denver finishes as the AFC’s top team.  In all likelihood, such a scenario would move the Patriots into the two-seed.

Welcome back, Knowshon! (personal photo)

Back to/of the Future? - Something has happened to Knowshon Moreno.  His solid performance in Baltimore has already spurred talk that the Broncos may not need much from Willis McGahee should he return while the Broncos are still playing.  (McGahee is eligible to return AFC championship weekend.)  Moreno still needs to show he can carry the momentum through more games and continue to run hard, secure the ball, and avoid injury.  It appears he has in fact changed, and the simplest observation as to how is that he’s gotten bigger and more powerful. Perhaps Moreno’s biggest disadvantage until now was that he entered the league as an in-between back…not quite bulky enough to be a power runner, and not quite quick enough to be a finesse rusher.  Realizing he was bouncing off, rather than running through NFL defenders, Moreno tried to make his bones as an agile speedster, and just didn’t have the tools for it. Now he’s bulked up, gotten patient, and appears more focused on finding holes than trying to avoid defenders.  Welcome, Knowshon.  Here’s wishing you all the best.

Power Source - It seems like every week I’m writing this, but it has to be mentioned time and again: The Broncos defense is the true key to this team’s success.  The defense turned in another outstanding effort limiting Baltimore running back Ray Rice and rendering the Ravens offense ineffective until the game was well in hand.  Cornerback Chris Harris’ 98-yard interception return was an electric moment, and a major momentum swinger.  Certainly defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio deserves major credit in his defense planning and schemes, but the players make the plays.  It’s interesting how the Denver defense received little talk, and even some criticism as a questionable unit before the season began.  What can very well be said now is the Broncos defense most definitely kept the team viable last season, and has turned Denver into an elite outfit this season.

Eric Decker’s line from Sunday: 8 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD (personal photo)

Less than Special - The biggest “needs improvement” takeaway from this game is on special teams.  Trindon Holliday encapsulated his polar risk/reward tendencies by fumbling yet another punt return (luckily out of bounds) but also breaking along the sideline for what was nearly another return TD.  Come playoff time he could very well be the guy who wins a game for Denver, or loses it.  Tackling was also an issue for Denver special teams.  Matt Prater had two touchdown saving tackles while Britton Colquitt added one of his own. Great to see that efforts out of the kicking staff, but not great that the kicking staff had to make those types of efforts.

Look! Eric Decker! - Decker delivered one of his best performances in weeks. It was a good thing too as Demaryius Thomas was largely blanketed and blanked from the game. There was some speculation that Thomas may be hurting more than he or the Broncos are letting on.  If that’s the case, it will be imperative Decker, Brandon Stokley, and the tight ends continue to step up in the passing game.  Then again, if the Broncos can continue to run the ball effectively, the receiving corps may have little trouble making an impact.

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Note: On days following the Denver Broncos game, Denver Horse Force will deliver the headlines midday to include more dissection, breakdown, and of course, the very latest analysis and Denver Broncos news from around the web.

Broncos, Peyton Manning run over Ravens for ninth straight win - The Broncos first clinched no worse than the AFC’s No. 3 playoff seed Sunday by trouncing the Baltimore Ravens, 34-17, then learned a few hours later on the team bus ride from Denver International Airport to their Dove Valley headquarters that they are in the lead position for the No. 2 seed — because the New England Patriots were on their way to losing 41-34 to the San Francisco 49ers.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Broncos’ defense limits Ravens’ stars in runaway victory - One of the chisel-it-in-stone items for any defensive coordinator is: Don’t let the stars beat you.  Don’t let the opponent’s best players, running their favorite plays, pile up the yards and touchdowns.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Woody Paige: Thanks to Broncos’ Chris Harris, a very Orange Christmas - Merry Christmas.  Chris “Kringle” Harris gift-wrapped a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown that put the Broncos in a festive holiday mood Sunday afternoon.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Moreno Paces Offense - With the Broncos ahead 31-3 entering the fourth quarter, the running backs carried the load as the game wound down.  Denver ran the ball 17 times in the final period and threw it just once.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Getting Better All the Time - Though plenty went right for the Broncos in the team’s 34-17 win at Baltimore on Sunday, each player in the locker room knows that there is still room for improvement.  “We just try to get better every week,” Head Coach John Fox said. “Right now, our guys have responded well to just improving every week.”  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Broncos Get Franchise’s First Win in Baltimore - Entering the team’s Week 15 matchup against the Ravens, the Broncos had never won a game in Baltimore.  That changed on Sunday.  “(Owner and CEO) Pat Bowlen has owned the team for 29 years and has averaged 10 wins a season over that 29-year period,” Head Coach John Fox said. “But it’s the first time he’s won in this building. I was proud to see that for him.” Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Denver Broncos: Moving On - Here are some areas the Denver Broncos need to focus on after a 34-17 road win at Baltimore on Sunday.  Read more from ESPN >>>>

Broncos show Ravens how NFL defense is really played - With a wrecking-ball defense, the Broncos came to the NFL town Ray Lewis built and tore it down. Forty-five minutes after Denver’s 34-17 victory against Baltimore, a tractor swept the stadium turf, picking up the shards of quarterback Joe Flacco’s ego. And for every team with a coaching vacancy, write down these three words: Jack Del Rio.  Read more from Baltimore Sun >>>>

Denver Broncos extend Baltimore Ravens’ woes - Sunday’s game between the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens was supposed to feature two Super Bowl contenders angling for a playoff bye.  It ended with one team looking unstoppable and the other in a free fall that might not stop until the offseason.  Read more from NFL.com >>>>

Knowshon Moreno running wild for Denver Broncos - Denver possesses a player that runs like a wild stallion in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, Knowshon Moreno.  Moreno has been a beast for the Broncos over the last four weeks, stepping up to the task of filling in for Willis McGahee following his partial MCL tear.  Read more from Examiner >>>>

Broncos vs. Ravens: Denver Makes a Statement - The Denver Broncos have won nine games in a row and should no longer be doubted as one of the elite teams in football. The Broncos beat up on the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday en route to a 34-17 victory that pushed their record to 11-3.  Read more from Bleacher Report >>>> 

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Welcome to Quarter Calls, DHF’s quarter-by-quarter breakdown of each Denver Broncos game. Instead of a live game thread, Quarter Calls is a quick-hit summary of the big story of each quarter. It can be a general mood or theme, play, penalty, injury, whatever.

If you prefer real time analysis and commentary, follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter. As always, I’ll be tweeting throughout the game.

Go Broncos!

Pregame: Denver Broncos inactives: Lance Ball, Bubba Caldwell, Caleb Hanie, Chris Kuper, Tracy Porter, Sealver Siliga, and Julius Thomas

Baltimore Ravens inactives: Ed Dickson, Dannell Ellerbe, Ramon Harewood, Jameel McClain, Bernard Pollard, Deonte Thompson, and Marshal Yanda

1st Quarter

(11:40 a.m.) How the Broncos are only up by three points is beyond me.

Seriously, the Denver defense has looked amazing, already forcing one Joe Flacco fumble in addition to series after series of stalled drives.

So how is it the Broncos have only mustered a field goal?  The offense has benefited from excellent field position and are facing a Ravens defense decimated by injuries.

One thing is for sure; depleted or not, Baltimore boasts the league’s best red zone defense.  The Ravens somehow find a way to ratchet things up a notch when the opponent is driving.

I have liked Peyton Manning throwing downfield.  I’ll like those play calls even better once Denver actually connects on one.  Attempts are one thing. Completions are another.

Best play of the quarter honors go to Knowhon Moreno for his hurdling prowess.  What makes it even sweeter is that he cleared Ed Reed.

2nd Quarter

 (12:22 p.m.) Thank you, Chris Harris, for making the play of the game.

How huge was his 98-yard interception return for a touchdown?  Aside from being the longest in franchise history for the regular season, Harris’ play was a huge point swing.

The Ravens’ offense, which had struggled for most of the first half, suddenly assembled a solid drive, and were just yards away from making a 10-0 game a 10-7 game in the half’s closing seconds.  Instead, because of Harris, the Broncos are now leading 17-0.

So firing Cam Cameron has paid dividends for the Ravens so far, no?  Actually, no, not at all.   Jim Caldwell seems to be a nice guy, but does he really strike anyone as a significant upgrade?

3rd Quarter

(1:19 p.m.)  Total domination.

The Broncos are showing why they are the superior team.  The offensive scored two touchdowns, while the defense continues to wreak all sorts of havoc on Flacco’s offense.  Perhaps surprisingly, the Broncos have yet to register a sack, but the effective pass rush has disrupted the quarterback all game long.

Score: 31-3

4th Quarter

(2:06 p.m.) With the game out of hand, there wasn’t much of interest in the 4th quarter…

Other than the Denver Broncos earning their ninth-straight win of the 2012 season, a longest active win streak in the league.

It took until late in the 4th quarter, but Denver finally got its first sack of the game, courtesy rookie DT Derek Wolfe.  Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil also registered back-to-back sacks in the game’s final two plays.  The offense took a few shots downfield, but mainly was impressive in its ability to kill clock through a sustained running game.  A few lapses in concentration allowed the Ravens two touchdowns, but it hardly mattered as the Broncos wrapped this one up midway through the third quarter.

The Broncos head home with their first victory against the Ravens in Baltimore.  Denver also is finished with road games this season, going 6-2.  The Broncos conclude the regular season against the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs.

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