The Denver Broncos are rested, ready, and about as healthy as they’ve been all season.

Fresh off a playoff bye, the Broncos begin their quest for a February “vacation” in New Orleans with a rematch against the Baltimore Ravens, a team Denver comfortably defeated four weeks ago.  This time around, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas list Denver at 9.5-point favorites.

Even so, we all know the adage of “any given Sunday” – or in this case, Saturday – and that is especially true for favored AFC teams in the playoffs. From 1990 to 2011, nine AFC No. 1 seeds lost in the divisional round of the playoffs. During that same period, only two one seeds from the AFC won the Super Bowl. Luckily, one of those teams was the 1998 Denver Broncos.

I’m not suggesting the Broncos are ripe for an upset, but it’s not unrealistic either.  (For the record, if there is a “vulnerable” No. 1 seed, direct your attention to the Atlanta Falcons, who host the rolling Seattle Seahawks this weekend.)

The 2012 Denver Broncos are winners of 11 straight games, and finished the regular season ranked fourth in total offense and second in total defense; the Houston Texans were the league’s only other team to finish in the top 10 in both categories. The Broncos are a better team than the Ravens, something we saw demonstrated during the teams’ Week 15 showdown, but being better is no guarantee of victory.

If the Denver Broncos play Saturday like the Denver Broncos we’ve seen throughout the season, this team will play another week – another week in front of the hometown fans at Sports Authority Field.

But what could be the difference maker that sways the pendulum in Baltimore’s favor? Here are two possibilities:

Turnovers – This is the ongoing conflict for Denver. How can one of the league’s best teams struggle with turnovers week after week? Denver enters the game with a turnover ratio of minus-1. Only two other teams, the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings, made the playoffs with a negative differential, and each lost during Wild Card Weekend.

On the upside, the Broncos’ lone turnover-free game this season was against the Ravens, and it’s the stat that helped Denver win so convincingly.  If the Ravens are to pull off the upset, I see one of the following two scenarios:

1. The Ravens finish the game with a turnover margin of plus-2 or better.
2. The Ravens finish the game with a turnover margin of plus-1 AND score either a defensive or special teams touchdown.

Close Game Tested? – Not only did the Broncos end the regular season with an 11-game win streak, the closest margin of victory was seven points, and some of those wins included “garbage time” touchdowns by the opponents, making the final scores look closer than the games really were. We have to go all the way back to September for a Broncos game decided by fewer than seven points – and those were each six-point losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans. Denver’s final loss of the season, a Week 5 loss at New England, was a ten-point game.

What we haven’t seen this season is how Denver would react in a truly close game, and by that, I mean back-and-forth games, not the feverish comebacks we saw come up short. The Ravens, meanwhile, have played ten games decided by seven points or less, winning six. How would the Broncos respond if the Ravens tied the game with 1:30 remaining? Took the lead?

Prediction

Denver 28, Baltimore 17

The Ravens have hopes of knocking out the conference’s top seed, and extending Ray Lewis’ career another week, but I don’t see the Broncos giving in. Denver is simply too dominant in all three phases of the game to bow out early. The Broncos are arguably the most balanced team in football, and balanced teams aren’t usually the teams that get upset.

After two early losses against the Ravens in his career, quarterback Peyton Manning has won nine straight against Baltimore

Come Saturday make that ten.

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Considering it’s a divisional playoff game, and the Denver Broncos’ first with Peyton Manning at the helm, it feels like there should be more in-depth storylines to dissect. When I really think about it though, there is a lot to consider, but nothing warranting a thousand words. In that spirit, here are some thoughts, facts, and observations I’m mulling ahead of Saturday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens.

New Day for Denver

Much has been made of this potentially being Ray Lewis’ final NFL game. It would serve as a fitting bookend for Lewis who competed in his first playoff game on New Year’s Eve day in 2000 against the Broncos. The Baltimore Ravens won 21-3 on the way to a Super Bowl victory. Yet, a Denver victory Sunday could also been seen as the closing of a chapter. That game in 2000 was Denver’s first playoff game post-John Elway. Since then, Denver has returned to the playoffs only four other times (twice being knocked out by Peyton Manning). A win Saturday will not only signal what is perhaps the start of a demise for a Ravens defense that has been dominant for the past decade, but also the end of a period that saw the Broncos stay competitive, but just outside the bubble of a perennial playoff contender.

Is Baltimore the Sneaky On-A-Roll Team?

Also known as “Who is this year’s New York Giants?” Wild Card weekend didn’t offer much help in identifying the lower seeded team who could win it all, or even IF there was a lower seeded team who could win it all. Take a look at last weekend’s winners:

• Houston Texans: Lackluster victory over a one-dimensional offensive opponent. Impressive outing for running game against a solid defense. Displayed no indications they would create a matchup problem for a team with an elite quarterback.
• Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks arrived in the playoffs after several weeks of blowing out opponents (and a tight Week-17-so-who-really-cares victory). Not surprised they won. Would hardly characterize Seattle as a team that “eked in and started surprising people.” Too good, and too consistent of a defense.
• Green Bay Packers: Under no one’s radar. Elite quarterback who was the league’s MVP last season. Yeah, not sneaking up on anyone.
• Baltimore Ravens: Inspired victory against a team that should have been about .500 or slightly worse based on point differential. Was the Indianapolis Colts’ defense that porous or has the Ravens offense clicked that much? Is the Ravens’ defense that stout in the red zone, or did the Colts bumble the execution of too many plays? Too many variables to say for sure.

As these things generally go, I would probably pick No. 3 seeded Houston as that Wild Card weekend sleeper contender. If the Texans truly return to a potent run game, the defense and passing game are both still good enough to deliver a tough matchup. The same could also be said for Baltimore, but it just feels like more of a stretch. I could see the Ravens hanging tough, but I could also see a situation where it becomes evident early on that Baltimore is mainly smoke and mirrors. The big names on defense may be back, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if we’re talking Sunday about how it was evident they just weren’t at full strength.

Is Saturday the last call for LB Ray Lewis? (courtesy Keith Allison)

For the Record

Are you like me? Are you getting tired of the “argument” that the Broncos have only won against bad teams? Here’s my big issue with that: Yes, it’s true for the most part, but it’s not like these were close wins. Sure the Broncos may not have compiled an impressive 11-game winning streak had the team been pitted against the NFC West or played in the AFC South.

This isn’t college; coaches can’t schedule light. It’s often luck of the draw.

Before the season began, Denver’s schedule looked daunting. That was before we knew the New Orleans Saints really would be hamstrung by Bountygate, or Cam Newton’s Carolina Panthers wouldn’t improve on the past season, or the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs would somehow find a way to get substantially worse.

The Broncos won a lot of games against inferior competition, and won handily. That’s what good teams are supposed to do.

Meanwhile, Baltimore did manage to lose to the Philadelphia Eagles, beat the Chiefs 9-6, and escape a loss to the vaunted Chargers due to a play that had both a personal foul, and would’ve have required Ray Rice to be nearly 6’5″ (it’s trigonometry folks – based on where his knee hit, there is no possible way the ball was extended beyond the line of gain).

Who’s Elite?

You know what would really help out Joe Flacco? Winning this game. He’d be able to say “he” was able to outduel Peyton Manning, and “he” was still worthy of being considered an elite quarterback (not that logically, “he” refers to the Ravens, and more specifically, Ray Rice and the Ravens defense). A win would help Flacco’s case.

A win would also really help secure Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker as an elite receiving tandem. The two have been playing exceedingly well lately after what was at times an inconsistent start to the season. A trip to the AFC Championship should formalize their ascendency as a 1-2 pair that poses a big problem for defensive coordinators.

Salvaging a Season for Rice

Ray Rice has had an underwhelming season…by Ray Rice standards. Two playoff victories should be enough for him to escape questions of whether he should still be considered a big time threat. What isn’t falling in his favor is the Denver defense. Despite several big rushing days (Houston, New England, Kansas City), the Broncos front seven hasn’t allowed many running games to get going. Even the ones that did failed to single-handedly dictate the outcome of a game. If the Broncos make this game a proposition of whether Flacco can engineer enough points through the air this one will be finished well before the final whistle.

The Chris Harris Pick-Six Happened

With this guy on your side, you have to feel good. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Another quick beef…I’m a little irritated by the notion that the first times these teams met, the game would have been totally different if not for Harris’ interception. You know what? It could have been. But you know what? It wasn’t.

The Broncos could have also tallied victories in Atlanta and Houston if not for some unfortunate turnovers. Both the Ravens and Broncos could have won some additional games if they executed better. So could every other team.

Remove just the Harris interception, and the only difference is the Ravens trail 24-10 heading into the fourth quarter, the Broncos don’t fully let off the gas, and the game ends pretty much in the same fashion.

Final Note

It’s the playoffs. No outcome can be guaranteed, and the price of losing increases dramatically. All this said, the game really will come down to a simple question: Are the Broncos focused enough?

Even if the Ravens “want it more” than Denver, they still can’t match the talent of the Broncos. If Denver consistently fails to execute, it could spell trouble. If the Broncos execute for the most part and turn mistakes into minor hiccups, the Ravens still don’t win this one. If the Broncos play flawlessly, the Ravens not only lose, but lose big. The following weeks may provide a different scenario, but if the Broncos’ season ends Saturday evening it will be because the Broncos managed to end it themselves. My hunch is that’s just not going to happen.

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For most of us, a weekend off doesn’t entail multiple job interviews. 

But then again, we’re not Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy.

McCoy is set to speak with up to four NFL teams this weekend in Denver.

The Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills are expected to interview McCoy Saturday as possible replacements to Ken Whisenhunt and Chan Gailey, respectively. The Bears and Eagles are rumored to meet with McCoy Sunday. Chicago fired Lovie Smith and Philadelphia fired Andy Reid Monday.

Earlier this week, McCoy confirmed with the Denver Post he had some interviews lined up this weekend but didn’t say how many or which teams:

“I’m going to keep that to myself. I’ve got a few set up this weekend.”

The Denver Broncos have a playoff bye, so McCoy’s weekend interviews must take place in the Denver area. McCoy says his top priority continues to be preparing the Broncos divisional round game – against the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, or Indianapolis Colts – which could limit his ability to answer certain interview questions:

“I’m going to let them know up front, very honestly, my No. 1 priority is to win football games for the Denver Broncos. I’m employed here and I’ve got a job to do.”

McCoy has been offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos since 2009.

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We’ve covered the pros and cons for each team the Broncos could face, now it’s time to peer into the crystal ball, and objectively try to decipher who will be coming to Denver on Jan. 12.

How the Broncos match up against their three potential division round opponents >>>> 

6 Cincinnati at 3 Houston

To me this goes one of two ways, and both ways fully depend on what version of the Houston Texans shows up. In one instance, Houston gathers itself and pretty well trounces the Bengals. In the other, the Texans continue to underperform and encounter a result very similar to what they experienced against the Minnesota Vikings.

Ultimately, the Texans haven’t looked dominant since the team’s bye week. When the Texans have scored their opponents have too. Looking at the season as a whole suggests the real Texans are much more the team that lost its final two games than the team that looked solidly complete in the first five weeks of the season. If the Bengals’ strong defensive interior can win the trench battle the Texans’ offense will stall. Everything Houston does offensively stems from work along the line of scrimmage. If the Bengals frustrate that balance the whole system starts to crumble.

Prediction: Bengals

5 Indianapolis at 4 Baltimore

The case for the Colts is really simple: They’ve won unexpectedly all season so why stop now. Well, because it’s still difficult to beat the Ravens in Baltimore…especially in January…especially with team leader Ray Lewis announcing earlier this week he would retire at season’s end. Indianapolis’ great run this season kind of feels like it was bookended in Week 17. The Ravens’ defense certainly isn’t what it used to be, but is savvy enough to create some big headaches from Andrew Luck.

I think Baltimore makes it out of this one, but then again, I really didn’t expect the Colts to win 11 games so who knows what can happen.

Prediction: Ravens

These outcomes would also produce a pretty favorable result for the Broncos. The Bengals can’t be taken lightly, but the Broncos know they very likely absorbed Cincinnati’s best shot and still won. The same result should be possible especially with the Broncos having the added rest and preparation advantage. The Ravens have lost a lot of bodies since edging by the New England Patriots early in the season. It’s not realistic to think Baltimore could get past New England again, but the Ravens could at least give the Patriots a game.

In all likelihood, whatever the outcomes of Wild Card weekend, it appears we’re headed for a Brady vs. Manning showdown with a trip to the Super Bowl at stake.

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The last time the Denver Broncos grabbed the top seed in the AFC was the 1998-99 season.  That 14-2 Broncos squad drew the Dan Marino-led Miami Dolphins in the divisional round, beat the stuffing out of them, and then handled the New York Jets in the AFC title game, before beating the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl.

It was a great outcome, especially as it also allowed the Broncos to wipe away the bad one-seed mojo of 1996 which saw a top-seeded Broncos team take one of the franchise’s worst losses in the divisional round.  The Denver Broncos organization knows all too well the top spot in the playoffs can be the blessing it’s intended, or a terrible curse. Like any other “win or go home” tournament, so much of the NFL playoffs is about matchups, and gaining a path of least resistance.

Being a top seed seemingly provides a team with that clearer path to the final round.  Seemingly.  The problem is that in the modern NFL, often the hottest team is one who has battled its way into the tournament and brings with it the momentum, focus, and confidence to keep grinding away.

As the top-seed, the Broncos can’t play the Houston Texans, leaving the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Indianapolis Colts as potential opponents.  Any team can win on a given day, and there certainly isn’t such a thing as a guaranteed victory in the NFL playoffs, but here are my cases for and against wanting to see each of the three come to Denver on Jan. 12.

Baltimore Ravens

Pros: The Broncos already beat the Ravens…soundly…in Baltimore. Ray Rice and the Ravens’ running attach was non-existent. The Denver defense kept Joe Flacco flustered throughout the game, and forced him into critical mistakes, one of which basically ended the game just before halftime.

Cons: The Ravens are getting slightly healthier with Ray Lewis expected back for the Wild Card game…though his retirement announcement earlier this week could motivate those around him to “keep winning to prolong Ray’s career.”  Offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell also has some, albeit still not a lot, more experience as the play caller than he did when the team’s met several weeks ago.  While the Broncos kept Rice at bay in the first meeting, he’s too good a player to assume he’d be just as ineffective if he had a second crack at Denver.  The Ravens also have a strong return game on special teams which can be an ultimate weapon in January road games.

Cincinnati Bengals

Pros: Like Baltimore, the Broncos know this team as Denver beat Cincinnati team during the regular season.  The Bengals have only one true offensive weapon in A.J. Green, and second-year quarterback Andy Dalton has played well, but has yet to emerge as an elite prospect.  The Bengals are strong up front, but the secondary didn’t fair well against the Broncos passing game, which by all accounts has gotten even sharper since that meeting.  Also, in the last meeting the Bengals were coming off a bye week which provided them extra time to prepare while this matchup would give Denver the rest and edge.

Cons: Unlike Baltimore, the Bengals gave Denver a game.  Cincinnati has played well against the run all season and has potentially the best interior pass rusher in the league in Geno Atkins.  While the Bengals offense is somewhat one dimensional with the Dalton to Green connection, it’s a dimension that still remains difficult to defend. The Bengals have been solidly good all season, and have the ability to get great if a few supplemental pieces can contribute more regularly.

Indianapolis Colts

Pros: This is the lone AFC playoff team the Broncos didn’t play in 2012.  The Colts are also the paradox team Denver was last season; obtaining a record far better than the team’s negative point differential would suggest.  Quarterback Andrew Luck has been impressive, but has also made the frequent hallmark mistakes of a rookie QB in a true pro-style offense. The Colts’ defense has been good enough when needed as late, but is far from an outfit that appears positioned to frustrate an elite quarterback like Manning.

Cons: Indianapolis could very well be that momentum team.  The Colts have fought all season, winning games they probably shouldn’t have, and uniting with a bona fide “nobody believes in us” cause.  Luck has proven he can find a way to win close games, and the team as a whole seems to find big plays when needed.  It’s difficult to explain exactly how the Colts win games, but they do.  Teams like that are difficult to scheme against.  While the Colts would be getting their first in-person look at Denver, the Broncos would also be getting there’s and there’s something to be said for going with the devil you know.

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With the dust now settled on Sunday’s dismantling of the Kansas City Chiefs and coronation of the Denver Broncos as the AFC’s top seed, here are a few additional thoughts on the game, the regular season, and postseason chances.

Air No Grievances- Perhaps the biggest sign this team is hitting on all cylinders is the play of the Broncos’ top two receivers: Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. Recall the beginning of the season if you will. Sometimes they were overthrown, other times the ball was on the money and dropped, many times the ball was on the money but the coverage was so tight neither Decker nor Thomas could manage to make the “big play” catch.  The receiving duo has evolved this season.  In the opening weeks, it was common to see both players begging for calls rather than coming up with catches on contested passes.  There’s no begging now, just production.

Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas: Solid in training camp promise…and it’s paying dividends now. (personal photo)

On Sunday, Decker was pinned against the side of the end zone by two Chiefs and managed to haul in a one-handed touchdown grab.  It was terribly impressive, and outdone a short time later by Thomas climbing the ladder in the back of the end zone to make a one-handed highlight submission of his own.  This duo used to need space to make plays.  Lately it’s been making them in tight quarters.  If Decker and Thomas continue to show they can’t be stopped – even with good coverage – then the Broncos become a truly dangerous Super Bowl contender.

Hard Lessons – Denver’s coaching staff doesn’t hesitate to make an example of players.  Ronnie Hillman became the latest victim with a turnover, a turnover  that for a few moments seemed to be heading toward nightmare scenario status.  The rookie running back’s fumble nearly resulted in a game-tying Kansas City touchdown, left offensive lineman Orlando Franklin hurt, and resulted in Peyton Manning getting entangled with Joel Dreessen in touchdown-saving tackle.

Bad, bad play for Hillman.  Bad enough to end his regular season a few quarters early.

Lost fumbles remain a problem for the Denver offense.  Hillman seemingly stopped what was shaping up to be another touchdown drive (that likely would’ve put the game on the verge of over-before-halftime status), and then proceeded to fluster the offense for another series thereafter.  Luckily, the Chiefs woeful offense couldn’t do much in the way of capitalizing on the huge momentum shift.  If a New England Patriots rematch is the Broncos’ destiny, a breakdown in ball security will very well end the Broncos’ season, and if a running back is responsible, you can bet he’ll be on the outside of the lineup looking in heading into the offseason.

Make no mistake, the Denver Broncos defense is sizzling this year. (personal photo)

Recipe for Success – The Broncos defense surrendered its lowest point total of the season, allowing Kansas City only three points (and that was on the drive that began in the red zone due to Hillman’s fumble).  In the Broncos’ 11-game winning streak, the team has surrendered an average of roughly 16 points per game.  You’ll recall a decent amount of that opposition scoring has come when the game was well in hand (a.k.a. garbage time). Taking out 4th quarter opponent scores that happened in the final five minutes of games in which the Broncos had a double digit lead, the Broncos have allowed opponents an average of 12.5 point per game.

Considering the Broncos lowest point total of the season was 17 against Kansas City in Week 12, and the team has scored 30 or more points in all but five games, it’s not difficult to see why Denver finishes the regular season as the AFC’s top team.  The playoffs bring solid offenses to town, but the Broncos made it clear that most, if not all teams, will have to work hard for points.

You Heard It Here – It’s deserving of no prize other than the satisfaction of saying, “I totally called it.” Several weeks ago, Denver Horse Force posited the Broncos had a legitimate shot of winding up as the AFC’s top seed.

Houston’s trouncing at New England opened the door for an intriguing set of circumstances: Broncos win out, New England loses once more, and Houston loses two of three.  Not surprisingly, Denver’s role was the easiest to predict as the Broncos demonstrated total superiority against the Baltimore Ravens, fledgling Cleveland Browns, and a lost Chiefs outfit.

DHF also liked the Niners against New England as the San Francisco defense is EXACTLY the type of group that gives Tom Brady problems as it can, and did, play the Patriots straight up in man coverage and generated pressure without blitzing.  The Texans’ crumble was also easy to see with the Minnesota Vikings having a workable defense and a solid offensive line to wear down Houston.  Oh, and the Texans’ loss this past Sunday was of no surprise. If you watched Chuck Pagano’s news conference the previous Monday you just knew there was no way Indianapolis was losing that game.  No way.  The football gods would simply not allow the Colts to lose at home in Pagano’s return.

Okay, gloating finished.

Playoff Snapshot – So, what’s the next call?  Good question.  We’ll get more into playoff breakdowns and predictions later in the week, but for now I’ll say I don’t see a potential divisional opponent capable of coming to Denver and beating the Broncos.

The Ravens and Bengals have already lost to Denver at their places, and frankly I don’t see either team faring better on the road.  As an admitted Colts fan, I’m not going to root against Indianapolis, but I really, really, really don’t want to see the Colts have to face Manning in Denver.  It would be too weird and emotionally unsettling – to put it mildly.  If it did happen, despite the great and improbable season the Colts have orchestrated, I just don’t see that magic getting very far, especially against a Broncos team that knows what a “magical” season feels like, and saw how brutally it can end.

So, the short of it…Denver plays for the conference championship. How it gets there, and whom it plays against will be discussed later in the week.

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It’s been just more than a month since the Denver Broncos played the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Denver left with a win, but if you remember, the Broncos didn’t look like that dominating team we were expecting to see. In fact, you might say the Chiefs gave Denver its biggest challenge in the past several months.  The Broncos won 17-9 in a game full of…blah.  The offense wasn’t crisp, and struggled to string together solid drives.  The defense wasn’t superb, giving up 148 rushing yards, but did manage to keep the offensive-challenged Chiefs from doing much scoring damage.  Then again, the Chiefs’ offense does a pretty good job of that on its own.

Despite the loss, Kansas City outplayed Denver.  The Chiefs executed while the Broncos sputtered.

In Sunday’s regular-season finale, the AFC West champion Broncos, winners of ten straight, are playing for playoff seeding.  A Broncos’ victory means one of two things:

• Denver is assured a Wild Card weekend bye, and will host a divisional round game (and possibly the AFC championship game) as the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
• Denver is assured a Wild Card weekend bye, and will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs as the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

For the latter to happen, the Houston Texans must lose Sunday at Indianapolis against the Chuck Pagano-led Colts.  It’s rather well documented by now I fully see this happening.

When Kansas City has the ball: I was tempted to just cut and paste my Nov. 25 game preview here, but I won’t.  Still, nothing much has changed.   The Chiefs offense is rooted in its running game, notably Jamaal Charles, who rushed for 107 yards against the Broncos in Week 12.  In fact, Charles is the only back to rush for at least 100 yards during Denver’s 10-game win streak.

The Chiefs running game ranks fifth in the NFL at 153.5 yards a game.   Charles’ 1,456 rushing yards leads the AFC, and he actually has more touchdown runs of 80+ yards this season than Minnesota Vikings star Adrian Peterson – three to two.

The Chiefs bullied the Broncos’ defensive front in Week 12.  Kansas City will need another repeat performance to have any real chance of winning.

When Denver has the ball: The Nov. 25 meeting marked the return to relevance for Knowshon Moreno.  At the time, Broncos fans expected little of Moreno, based largely on his ho-hum young career, and were counting down the days until Willis McGahee returned to game action.

Peyton Manning was given a concussion test in the Broncos’ Week 12 meeting at the Chiefs. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Moreno has surpassed expectations and continues to impress with his steady, unselfish play, but the Broncos offense will revolve around the passing game – as long as Peyton Manning is at the helm.

The Chiefs defense applied pressure on Manning in the Week 12 game; remember, Manning was even given a concussion test after one particular hit.

In the last meeting, Kansas City effectively cut the game into small pieces, forcing Denver to pick up yardage bits at a time. Despite Kansas City’s abysmal record, the Chiefs defense is certainly of the caliber of the teams Denver will see in the playoffs. The Broncos’ ability to run the ball effectively enough to loosen coverage for the aerial attack will be important. As will scoring points.

The Denver offense produced ten points in the first half the past two weeks, despite looking dominant. If the Broncos can not only continue to engineer drives in the early going, but also cap those drives with touchdowns and points, there could be a chance to get Manning out of the game and not risk another concussion test…one which would be terrible if he failed.

Prediction

Denver 30, Kansas City 9

The Broncos end the regular season with 11 straight wins, a Wild Card weekend bye, and at least one home playoff game.  It’s worth noting the Texans at Colts game is an early kickoff, so while the team may not be “officially” monitoring what’s happening in Indy, something tells me they’ll know the outcome, particularly if it’s a Colts victory, before kicking off from Sports Authority Field.

For those headed out to the game:

• Tailgate Lots open at 8:00 a.m.
• Parking open at 9:00 a.m.
• Mountain Village opens at 10:30 a.m.
• Premium Gates open 11:00 a.m.
• Stadium Gates open at 12:00 p.m.

Other News and Notes:

• Kickoff forecast is 35 degrees and sunny.
• CBS broadcast crew is Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts.
•  Head referee is Ed Hochuli.

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With the NFL regular season wrapping up, here are a few thoughts on the individual honors yet to be handed out.

MVP

Barring an incredible performance that allows Adrian Peterson to break Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record in the final game of the season, I think this one eventually goes to Peyton Manning.

MVP race: Peyton or Adrian? Adrian or Peyton? (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Peterson’s season has been breathtaking as he’s compiled a highlight reel of dazzling runs.  Still, barring a record and/or final game performance that lifts the Minnesota Vikings into the playoffs, it seems odd to say the most valuable player in the league was part of a team that missed the playoffs.  Should the Denver Broncos beat the  Kansas City Chiefs, the only other possible contender with a better record would be Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan deserves more credit than he gets, but I think you’d be hard pressed to find voters willing to elevate him above Manning.

Comeback Player of the Year

This feels like the consolation prize for whomever doesn’t win MVP (assuming it’s either Manning or Peterson). Then again, both have equally impressive stories. Peterson returned better than ever after ripping his knee apart – an obviously damaging injury for someone who runs for a living. Manning is submitting one of his finest seasons after multiple neck surgeries that required him a rehabilitate a nerve that at one point left him virtually unable to throw a football – an obviously damaging injury for someone who throws a football for a living. It’s really a pick ‘em. Both are incredibly impressive feats, and both deserve commendation.

Defensive Player of the Year

Right now I still think Von Miller is on the outside looking in, but he’s making up ground and could potentially seal the honor with a big performance this Sunday. J.J. Watt is still riding the name recognition wave, and deservedly so.   However, should (read: when) the Texans Houston lose to the Indianapolis Colts, Watt’s case could take a big hit.

J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans is the front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

At this point it’s apparent, at least to me, that Aldon Smith’s candidacy should really be a dual honor.  A vote for Aldon Smith is really a vote for Aldon and Justin Smith.  Since Justin Smith left the New England Patriots game with an injury, Aldon (and the rest of the Niners defense) hasn’t looked the same. This isn’t to say Aldon Smith is purely a beneficiary of Justin Smith’s hard work, but it’s probably fair to say his 19.5 sacks total to date drops quite a bit if Justin Smith isn’t on the team.

Right now it’s Watt, but Week 17 could change things.

Executive of the Year

What makes one an, “Executive of the Year?” In the absence of statistics its a difficult honor to quantify.  The two current front-runners have to be John Elway and Ryan Grigson of the Indianapolis Colts, although Bruce Allen of the Washington Redskins deserves an honorable mention, maybe.  Side note: as Mike Shanahan is also executive vice president of football operations it’s hard to say which moves were Shanahan, and which were Allen.

It’s a tough call. Elway’s resume is very different as he took a playoff team and made it legitimately better while Grigson had to essentially rebuild after the Colts blew up the roster.  Grigson had an optimal draft situation, and albeit drafted well, while Elway made his biggest splash in signing arguably the most valued free agent in league history.  Tough call.

I’m inclined to go with Elway though. Peyton Manning had options. Landing him was a combination of Elway effectively mixing both football and financial rationales into an offer too good to pass up.  Again, I have huge respect for what Grigson and the Colts have accomplished this season, but Grigson walked into a home run front office situation.  Most executives in the NFL spend years trying to make due while hoping that elite, franchise quarterback chip falls their way.  Grigson started with the most crucial personnel piece in place while Elway had to close the deal.

Oh, and add an extra degree of style points to Elway’s accomplishment as he managed to smoothly shutdown the biggest sports phenomena of the past year without a major amount of fan backlash.  No, Elway couldn’t have possibly planned for all of this to happen, but his ability to make the best moves possible when opportunities became available is the sign of a great leader, a strong executive, and Elway has done just that.

He wasn’t named to the Pro Bowl like RGIII, but Andrew Luck is my Rookie of the Year. (courtesy Mark Susina)

Coach of the Year

It’s not a stretch to throw John Fox’s name into this mix, but his chances of winning are probably a little less favorable than the above candidates.  Fox has continued to proved steady leadership, letting his coordinators and position coaches do their jobs, and allowing Peyton Manning the same level of input and seniority he enjoyed with the Colts.  Ultimately, despite the Broncos impressive season, it’s difficult to say Fox played a major role guiding the Broncos to this record.  Not to discredit the great job he’s done the past two seasons, but this one feels like it belongs to Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano.

Rookie of the Year

No Broncos are in contention for this award, but I figured I’d throw in my two cents on it as it’s a good debate.  My selection would be Andrew Luck.  Of the three great rookie quarterbacks this year, Luck entered a situation with the fewest amount of pieces in place.  The Washington Redskins were bad last year, but not 2-14 blow-up-the-roster bad. Robert Griffin III has been a joy to watch, but Luck has been the difference in leading Indianapolis to a winning season.  He has the game-winning drive record to prove it.  Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is probably best suited for a deep playoff run, and while he has thoroughly impressed, the “beneficiary” rule that applies to veteran quarterbacks should also apply to Wilson.  He’s displayed all the trappings of a future elite quarterback, but so did Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez when their defenses were lights out. Wilson looks like a star in the making, but it doesn’t hurt that he has the most complete team of the three.  Luck’s done more with less, replaced a legend, and given Colts fans many reasons to embrace life without Manning.  That basically never happens for a rookie, and that makes Andrew Luck the best one this year.

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With the frost now settled after Denver’s tenth consecutive win, this one at the expense of the Cleveland Browns, here are a few additional thoughts with one game remaining in the regular season.

Bad News First – Let’s just get it out of the way: the Denver Broncos’ punt returners are a problem. It was apparent the Broncos lost enough trust in Trindon Holliday that the team opted to send Jim Leonhard back deep to receive punts at the start of the game.  The personnel move showed the Broncos obviously felt one of the main ways Cleveland could have any chance in this game was by forcing a big error, potentially on special teams.  So the Broncos trotted out the sure-handed-if-not-flashy Leonhard, who then proceeded to muff a fair catch.  Oy.  When the playoffs arrive, could there be situations where the Broncos don’t even attempt to field punts?  If the offense keeps moving as it has been having Leonhard or Holliday back there seems almost like an unneeded risk.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas has 1,312 receiving yards this season. (personal photo)

Just Catch It – Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker didn’t create tons of separation once again, especially downfield. The positive is that it didn’t really matter.  Peyton Manning placed perfect throws to each, and despite good coverage, both came up with big catches, and touchdowns.  It’s important both keep a strong mentality of fighting for the ball, and using their strength to make plays.  Earlier this season, both succumbed to the temptation of looking for a flag rather than going all in to make a play.  Kudos to the duo for making big time catches in tight coverage.

Playing the Schedule – A consistent refrain on sports radio last week was whether Denver’s seemingly simple stretch run put the team at a big disadvantage heading into the playoffs.  It’s been interesting to see that while the Broncos continue to say all the right “next game is the most important” things, the team is basically using its final games as pre-playoff tune-ups.  Head coach John Fox stated the offense frequently operated from a two tight-end set, not hugely common to that point, in Baltimore because they wanted to work on that formation.  Manning utilized a glove yesterday not because he needed it, but because he might in January.  The Broncos sent a message to cornerback Tony Carter by deactivating him, starting Tracy Porter in his place, and relying on rookie Omar Bolden as the final line of nickel defense when Porter was injured.

In short, the Denver Broncos are in a playoff push with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs at stake, and feel they are good enough to tinker.  The scary thing is they’re right.  The scarier thing is while other teams have been fighting tooth and nail to hold their position, or gain entrance to the tournament, the Broncos are winning while managing to boost other facets of their game.  So, for the record, no…I don’t think an easier stretch schedule will negatively affect the Broncos.

What’s the Reality? – While the Broncos were systematically blowing out Cleveland in non-splashy fashion, the Baltimore Ravens absolutely dismantled the New York Giants.  Similar to several weeks ago, an AFC North team (back then it was the Cincinnati Bengals) ripped through the Giants a week after getting gouged by Denver.  So, is it that Denver is that good, or the Giants are that bad?  I guess it really depends on the level of quality you associate with the AFC North’s top two teams.  In this instance I’d say it’s more a case of the Giants being bad as Cincinnati and Baltimore have been very unimpressive in recent defeats, and hardly authoritarian in recent victories.  At the same time, the Ravens and Bengals are probably on the dividing line between contenders and everyone else. Those Denver victories aren’t signature wins like victories against the Atlanta Falcons or New England Patriots would have been, but they prove the Broncos are legitimately well above the playoff threshold.

Hate to Say I Told You So – Remember a week ago?  Remember how after the Patriots dropped that Sunday night thriller the talk was about the Broncos getting the two seed?  Remember how Denver Horse Force brushed off that talk, and posited the Broncos still had a legitimate shot for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs?  Well…if you don’t…it happened.  Now here we are.  One week left.  If the Broncos can meet expectations and get the Kansas City Chiefs that number one draft pick, and the Houston Texans stumble at Indianapolis against the Chuck Pagano-led Colts, the prophecy is fulfilled.

For those who may think the odds are long, let me point out I didn’t just say, “Hey, Denver could still get the one-seed.”  I told you how it would happen.  Broncos win out, Texans lose their final two.  How it was a big surprise that the Minnesota Vikings, a team with a sneaky-good defense and downright dangerous running threat, proved to be a matchup nightmare for Houston is beyond me.  The Texans’ loss should be even less surprising as the Vikings are playing for their season. Unlike Houston, Minnesota entered that game with ZERO guarantee of playing after next weekend.

So, what happens now that Houston does have a lot riding on a game, and their opponent is locked into the AFC’s fifth seed regardless of the outcome?  I’m sticking with my story: Houston still loses to Indianapolis.  Statistically they shouldn’t. Motivation-wise, the Texans’ are the team with more to play for: win and get home field advantage throughout, lose and they likely drop into Wild Card weekend and get a single home game as the three-seed.  The Colts’ are playing a road game the following weekend regardless, likely at Baltimore or possibly at New England. In most every situation this game is meaningless for Indianapolis.

Except…and this a HUGE except…enter Chuck Pagano, who returns as head coach just in time for his playoff-bound team’s regular season finale.  In all likelihood,  it will be the final time this season the Colts play at home – in front of a crowd that has embraced the courageous, tremendous, and improbable ‘Chuckstrong’ storyline that’s unfolded this season.  The Colts say they’ve fought and won to allow Pagano to return so he could coach the team in the playoffs.  Does anything about this sound like this is a game Indianapolis will phone in?  Does anything about this sound like a situation that favors the Houston Texans?  There’s no way the Colts are losing that one.  No way.  No how.

The Denver Broncos will gain the AFC’s top seed.

Merry Christmas.

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With the dust now settled on Sunday’s thorough plucking of the Baltimore Ravens, here are a few additional thoughts on the Denver Broncos latest win.

Dare to Dream - The Broncos definitive victory paired with the New England Patriots’ loss puts Denver in the driver’s seat for a first round playoff bye. The talk right now is focused on Denver winning out and finishing as the two-seed.  I still think heading into Week 16 the focus should remain on the coveted No. 1 seed, given the remaining competition for the Houston Texans.

The Texans’ Week 16 foe, the Minnesota Vikings, are as much on the NFC playoff bubble as a team can get.  Combine that with Adrian Peterson’s very real shot of setting a significant NFL record, and the Vikings truly have everything to play for right now.  If Minnesota gets Peterson going and pulls out a victory in Houston, and the Broncos take care of business against the Cleveland Browns, it sets up Week 17 as the deciding week for seeding.

Denver hosts the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston travels to Indianapolis to play the Colts.  A Colts win this week guarantees them a playoff spot, but don’t underestimate Indy’s desire to win what will likely be the home finale of an amazing season.  The Colts remain hopeful head coach Chuck Pagano will return just in time for the regular-season finale.  The young Colts have exceeded expectations all season long – not to mention re-engerized a fan base.  The culmination of the Chuckstrong movement is not a situation any team would want to walk into if it needed a big road win.

The Broncos must take care of the schedule in front of them, but until Sunday proves otherwise, I still think there’s a better than average chance Denver finishes as the AFC’s top team.  In all likelihood, such a scenario would move the Patriots into the two-seed.

Welcome back, Knowshon! (personal photo)

Back to/of the Future? - Something has happened to Knowshon Moreno.  His solid performance in Baltimore has already spurred talk that the Broncos may not need much from Willis McGahee should he return while the Broncos are still playing.  (McGahee is eligible to return AFC championship weekend.)  Moreno still needs to show he can carry the momentum through more games and continue to run hard, secure the ball, and avoid injury.  It appears he has in fact changed, and the simplest observation as to how is that he’s gotten bigger and more powerful. Perhaps Moreno’s biggest disadvantage until now was that he entered the league as an in-between back…not quite bulky enough to be a power runner, and not quite quick enough to be a finesse rusher.  Realizing he was bouncing off, rather than running through NFL defenders, Moreno tried to make his bones as an agile speedster, and just didn’t have the tools for it. Now he’s bulked up, gotten patient, and appears more focused on finding holes than trying to avoid defenders.  Welcome, Knowshon.  Here’s wishing you all the best.

Power Source - It seems like every week I’m writing this, but it has to be mentioned time and again: The Broncos defense is the true key to this team’s success.  The defense turned in another outstanding effort limiting Baltimore running back Ray Rice and rendering the Ravens offense ineffective until the game was well in hand.  Cornerback Chris Harris’ 98-yard interception return was an electric moment, and a major momentum swinger.  Certainly defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio deserves major credit in his defense planning and schemes, but the players make the plays.  It’s interesting how the Denver defense received little talk, and even some criticism as a questionable unit before the season began.  What can very well be said now is the Broncos defense most definitely kept the team viable last season, and has turned Denver into an elite outfit this season.

Eric Decker’s line from Sunday: 8 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD (personal photo)

Less than Special - The biggest “needs improvement” takeaway from this game is on special teams.  Trindon Holliday encapsulated his polar risk/reward tendencies by fumbling yet another punt return (luckily out of bounds) but also breaking along the sideline for what was nearly another return TD.  Come playoff time he could very well be the guy who wins a game for Denver, or loses it.  Tackling was also an issue for Denver special teams.  Matt Prater had two touchdown saving tackles while Britton Colquitt added one of his own. Great to see that efforts out of the kicking staff, but not great that the kicking staff had to make those types of efforts.

Look! Eric Decker! - Decker delivered one of his best performances in weeks. It was a good thing too as Demaryius Thomas was largely blanketed and blanked from the game. There was some speculation that Thomas may be hurting more than he or the Broncos are letting on.  If that’s the case, it will be imperative Decker, Brandon Stokley, and the tight ends continue to step up in the passing game.  Then again, if the Broncos can continue to run the ball effectively, the receiving corps may have little trouble making an impact.

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