Not only record setting…

But record shattering.

The Denver Broncos’ final open practice wrapped up Thursday, capping off a training camp not only full of enthusiasm but fans.  Lots of ‘em.

The team announced total attendance was 84,380 fans for 16 practices, nearly doubling the previous high of 45,124 set a season ago for 18 practices.

Here are some more numbers:

• Average attendance for each full Dove Valley practice was 2,872.
• Six Dove Valley practices in 2012 topped 3,103 fans, the former training camp attendance record at Dove Valley set in August 2012.
• The attendance record was set multiple times this season, but the new record is now 5,034.  That was set on Aug. 2.
• The team’s Aug. 4 scrimmage at Sports Authority Field at Mile High not only set a Broncos record at 41,304, but that tally is second-highest for a training camp practice in the league in 2012.  The Green Bay Packers scrimmage at Lambeau Field brought in 55,605 fans.

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In Denver, even the Broncos fans who describe themselves as realists will generally go with 10-6 when asked how the Broncos will do in 2012.  Those who say 9-7 generally throw out a caveat of, “They have a very difficult schedule.”  If you hear an 8-8 prediction it will almost certainly be paired with the qualifier of, “I just don’t think Manning will be able to go a full 16 games.”  Then there’s Grantland.com’s Bill Barnwell.

He has Denver going 8-8 and states it will take a vintage performance by Manning just to hit that mark.  In all fairness Barnwell builds his case empirically.  It’s research-based and statistically supported.  The main point of it all is that the Broncos had no business winning as many games as they did last season, and according to several NFL trend-analyses, they should expect reality to catch up this season.  In other words…luck runs out.

Even with Peyton Manning in Denver, some doubt the Denver Broncos will be among the league’s elite. (personal photo)

The potential flaw with Barnwell’s analysis is exactly the thing that makes it a well-supported argument: it’s based on stats.  If there was one phrase that captured the madness of Tebowmania last year it would have to be, “You just can’t explain it.”  From a statistical perspective that holds true.  As Barnwell notes, the Denver Broncos performed well beyond what they should have, notably winning games due to a highly improbable onside kick recovery in Miami, and a truly absurd sequence of events against the Chicago Bears.

The thing is, from both a viewing and data perspective, the 2011 Denver Broncos season was a ludicrous statistical anomaly.  In any type of scientific study the numbers from last season would be thrown out as a sheer fluke.

Just how backward was the 2011 team?  The average NFL team attempted 34 passing plays and 27 running plays during each game last year.  The Denver Broncos were the exact opposite, attempting 27 passes and 34 rushes on average each game.  Just gonna throw this prediction out there…that’s not going to be the case with Peyton Manning as quarterback.  It seems like only a slight difference (7 plays per game), but it greatly reflects the inherent problem of projecting the 2012 team based on 2011 performance.

The Denver offense is certainly the biggest reason why a projection based on 2011 numbers is likely a crapshoot.  However, Barnwell goes a step further in assessing Denver’s defense as average at best, stating Joe Mays, Justin Bannan, and Wesley Woodyard would be situational players on “good teams,” and “the players behind them are even worse.”

Here’s the thing…while Denver may be light on talent at linebacker, the team has made moves during the offseason which at best will be upgrades, or at worst, extend depth.  Even more telling about the Denver defense is that it wasn’t actually that bad last year.  The Broncos defense gave up 24 points per game on average.  That number is of course heavily skewed by three blowouts against the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, and New England Patriots.  In those games in which the offense sputtered out long before the scoring floodgates opened, the Denver defense gave up 135 points.  Remove those three games, and during the 13 game remainder of the 2011 regular season campaign the Broncos defense averaged 19 points allowed.  The Pittsburgh Steelers led the league with 17.

Now granted that’s kind of saying, “The Broncos defense is fine as long as it’s not playing premier teams,” and this year there is no shortage of good teams on the Denver schedule.  Again though, with an offense that was more comfortable with a halfback dive rather than anything resembling a forward pass on 3rd and 8, the Denver defense performed admirably given minimal help from the other side of the roster.

The Broncos also made defensive moves this offseason…and that could be the ultimate key to the team’s success. (personal photo)

Barnwell notes Denver’s point differential from 2011 of -81 should’ve been that of a team that went 6-10.  Oddly though, the Denver Broncos recently posted similar feats when the team finished with a -89 point differential in 2007 (Cutler’s rookie year) and went 7-9.  The next year, Mike Shanahan’s last, the Broncos finished 8-8 with a -78 point differential.  Barnwell states that teams outperforming expectations based on point differential by two to 2.5 games have declined by roughly two wins in the following season.  Yet Denver improved from 2007 to 2008, and even weirder, held the line at 8-8 in 2009, and even improved its point differential to +2 (despite the league thoroughly unraveling the Josh McDaniels playbook by week seven).

Maybe it’s the altitude.

Bringing it all back around, the general findings of that 8-8 prediction are that Peyton Manning is good, but didn’t necessarily come to a good team.  So then it becomes a question of whether Manning will be good enough to defeat what history says, which is that the Denver Broncos shouldn’t expect to improve upon, or even equal, the success of the past season.

In that respect there are too many new variables, from offensive system, to a refreshed secondary, to the general concept of the Broncos having a much better chance to play with leads, rather than as a team just trying to keep the opposition from building too much of one.  In essence, Peyton Manning won’t need to outplay history, as the myriad differences between the Tebow-led Broncos, and the Manning-led Broncos go far beyond a throwing motion.

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What a difference Peyton Manning makes.

Yes, the Denver Broncos won the AFC West in 2011, and yes, the Broncos did advance to the divisional round of the playoffs, but…

Well, let’s be honest here, did we expect much else out of the Broncos pre-Manning?  With all due respect to Tim Tebow (and remember, I like Tebow, so don’t assume otherwise), the Broncos overachieved in 2011.

With Manning now at the helm, along with a series of offseason acquisitions, the general consensus is the Broncos are much, much improved.  In the latest Super Bowl odds from pregame.com, the Broncos are 14 to 1 favorites to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy at 2012 season’s end.  Only three other team, Green Bay (6 to 1), New England (7 to 1), and San Francisco (13 to 1), have better odds.

Like Denver, Houston and Philadelphia also have 14 to 1 odds.  And once again, Peyton’s younger brother Eli is dissed slightly; his New York Giants, the defending Super Bowl champions, are 20 to 1 favorites.

In the days following Super Bowl XLVI, the Broncos’ Super Bowl odds were 50 to 1, according to MGM Grand Las Vegas.

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It reads something like a school yearbook – Most Popular.

The Denver Broncos didn’t win, place, or show, but a top ten finish is commendable.

According to a recent ESPN Sports Poll, the Broncos are the tenth most popular team in the NFL.  Of the 1,500 surveyed, 3.8% consider the Broncos their favorite team.

“America’s Team” – yep, those Dallas Cowboys – are the most popular with 8.8%, followed by the Green Bay Packers (7.2%), New York Giants (7.1%), Pittsburgh Steelers (7.1%), and New England Patriots (6.8%).

The Broncos are the most liked team in the AFC West.  Oakland placed two spots below Denver at No. 12, with Kansas City and San Diego 17th and 20th, respectively.  We certainly know the Broncos have loyal fans – helping sell out every home game for 40+ years – but it will be interesting to see if the arrival of a certain quarterback (and, no, I don’t Caleb Hanie) could propel Denver even higher on the list over the next few seasons.

The least popular team is Jacksonville. 

See the full list here >>>>

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See you in New Orleans?

MGM Grand Las Vegas is already out with the early odds to win Super Bowl XLVII and the Denver Broncos are in a logjam at 50-1 with Buffalo, Carolina, Kansas City, Miami, Seattle, and St. Louis.

'Cause the giant lion at MGM Grand Las Vegas said so! (personal photo)

Fellow AFC Rival San Diego comes in at 12-1 with Oakland – now with ex-Broncos defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as head coach – is 60-1.

Inexplicably, the New England Patriots are favorites at 5-1.  I really don’t understand the generous odds, but I say this right around this time each and every year.  (In fact, here’s my post from Feb. 8, 2011 on Super Bowl XLVI odds.)

Green Bay (11-2), Pittsburgh (6-1), Philadelphia (6-1 – see below), and the Giants (8-1) round out the top five.

Some other odds anomalies:

The Indianapolis Colts – the 2-14 in 2011 Indianapolis Colts – are 25-1 favorites to win Super Bowl XLVII.  Huh?  Is this under the assumption Peyton Manning is QB in 2012?  What about Andrew Luck?  Are the odds the same?  Talk about generous odds…

And staying with generous odds…the Philadelphia Eagles are 6-1 favorites, better than the 8-1 Super Bowl champion New York Giants.  When it comes to Philadelphia, color me unimpressed.  They have yet to make a believer out of me.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (150-0) are the biggest long shots to win it all in New Orleans.

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Exactly 14 years ago today, the Denver Broncos won their very first Super Bowl, beating the Green Bay Packers, 31-24.

Super Bowl XXXII MVP Terrell Davis – playing in his hometown of San Diego – rushed for 157 yards and three touchdowns, despite missing much of the second quarter with a migraine.  The Broncos ended the AFC’s 13-game Super Bowl losing streak.  The defending Super Bowl champion Packers were the first double-digit favorite to lose a Super Bowl since the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III.

As if you needed an excuse to relive one of the greatest moments in Broncos’ history, here you go….

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A lot of DHF stories ideas never leave my head, often as the result of one of two things: 1) DHF isn’t run by a team of writers – just me – and when you add the “real” job to my plate, I simply don’t have enough time, or 2) I made the editorial call to “not go there.”

What I’m about to tackle falls under the latter.

Tim Tebow hatred.

I’m now going there.  It’s a subject I considered addressing weeks ago, but never did.  I had my reasons; besides, the blogosphere is oversaturated with opinion pieces on the Tim Tebow “love him or hate him” debate.  I preferred to instead focus on football as much as possible.

That changed Saturday night, and not just because that’s when the football season ended for the Denver Broncos.

I certainly wouldn’t use the word ‘naïve’ to describe myself, but I was honestly taken aback by the online onslaught of personal insults and malicious taunting directed toward Tebow.  Okay, I know collectively we all love watching stars get publicly dinged.  We love to hate the media darlings, and Tebow certainly qualifies as such, but I inexplicably found myself outraged, incensed, and most of all, disappointed.

Silly how something as trivial as a Twitter timeline can make you realize just how much you care about a team and a player.

Tim Tebow's newest role: polarizing public figure. (personal photo)

I know the basic arguments (for lack of a better word) to dislike Tebow: questionable quarterbacking skills, relentless media coverage, and religious convictions.

Tebow has a lot to work on if he wants to develop into an elite quarterback in the NFL.  Heck, he has quite a bit to work on if he wants to develop into an okay quarterback in the NFL.  Tebow is dedicated to improving his passing, particularly his short- and middle-distance throws, along with reading defenses, and the inordinate number of “little things” it takes to lead a team.

As a quarterback, public criticism is par for the course.  “He shouldn’t have thrown that ball” or “He missed the wide open receiver” are the Sunday norm.  The verdict on Tebow’s NFL career remains to be seen, but if you dislike how he plays as a quarterback, that’s fine.  He does a lot of things that irritate me to no end.

If you’re irked Tebow has singlehandedly overshadowed a banner year for NFL passers, point the finger at the national media.  Tebowmania was largely a media creation.  Note to Denver readers: I omit Denver-based media because it’s their job to report on local news, and the Broncos are just that.

Three NFL quarterbacks (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford) threw for more than 5,000 yards this season, yet the Tebow media machine dwarfed the historic passing season.  The Green Bay Packers only lost one regular season game – a feat that only garnered second-headline status.

I get it; there’s too much Tebow out there. I also get that he’s not soliciting NFL Network, ESPN, or even the morning national talk shows for coverage.  Media love to overkill a news story.  Remember “The Royal Wedding?”

Look who gets a cover mention in The National Enquirer? (personal photo)

Remember the ESPN fascination with all things Brett Favre that thankfully met its demise (for the most part…or at least I’m hoping) in 2011?  Remember the “Pursuit of Perfection” surrounding the 2007 New England Patriots?

I sure do, and I hated it.

Do I hate Brett Favre?  No, but I really dislike his indecisiveness and penchant for raunchy drama.  Do I dislike the Patriots?  You betcha, but I’m from Colts country, so it’s expected as long as certain folks remain in Foxborough.

The point is that hearing too much about anything gets incredibly annoying, especially when the buzz seems to negate every other story.  However, that’s something out of Tebow’s control.  Attacking him for it is misguided, and ultimately won’t change a thing.

Regarding the lightning rod that is Tebow’s religious convictions, I’ll just add this: Tim Tebow is openly religious.  That’s not going to change.  While the political and personal ramifications of his faith may rub some the wrong way…that’s who he is, and it’s not going to change.

Writing about this now probably lends no credence to the Tebow debate, nor should it really.  Perhaps this nothing more just my venting, or a therapeutic exercise, or whatever you want to call it.  I understand the notion of wishing ill on the popular kid, but when by all accounts the popular kid is a genuinely good person, attacking him is petty.

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Woody Paige: John Elway wants Tim Tebow to “pull the trigger” in NFL playoffs - John Elway has been there before — and is there again. The Duke of Denver’s advice to young Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow for his first NFL playoff game Sunday: “Pull the trigger.”  Read more from The Denver Post >>>>

Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger says ankle a ’5′ prepping for Broncos -  Speaking today during a teleconference with Denver media, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said his ankle feels like a ’5′ on a scale of 1-10.  Read more from The Denver Post >>>>

Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense always hard to dent - As if playing in their first playoff game in six years isn’t enough on their plate, the Broncos will be wrestling with a fair share of NFL history in the first-round game Sunday.  Read more from The Denver Post >>>>

Broncos Face Most Familiar Rival - They say that the hardest things are forged out of steel. In football, that has proven true.  When the Denver Broncos host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday afternoon for the right to advance in the National Football League playoffs, it will be a very tough assignment.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Elway Excited for Playoffs - A 7-3 loss to the Chiefs wasn’t the way Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway preferred to enter the playoffs, but the organization’s goal of winning the AFC West was accomplished.  Read more Denver Broncos >>>>

Vegas: Packers have best shot to win Super Bowl - Casinos in Las Vegas think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have a better shot at winning the Super Bowl than Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos have of getting past the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend.  Read more from The Associated Press >>>>

Broncos’ QB options beyond Tebow - After a six-game winning streak, Denver Broncos QB Tim Tebow has hit a slump. He has completed only 40.5 percent of his passes during a three-game losing streak in which he has thrown for 439 yards and had seven turnovers.  Read more from ESPN >>>>

Tim Tebow: 4 Reasons Why Denver Broncos QB Is Not a Long-Term Option – The Tim Tebow debate isn’t over, but it should be.  The last three weeks—a run of undeniable ineptitude in the season’s most important games—prove Tim Tebow is not the Denver Broncos quarterback of the future.  Read more from Bleacher Report >>>>

Harris making name for himself with Broncos - Chris Harris is making the most of his rookie season in the National Football League.  The former Bixby Spartan has risen through the ranks — all the way from being ignored in last spring’s NFL’s college draft — to becoming one of the top players in the Denver Broncos secondary.  Read more from Bixby Bulletin >>>>

Frugal Fashion: Denver Broncos’ Tim Tebow in check - Denver Broncos’ quarterback Tim Tebow has already made a name for himself in the world of football.  The 24-year-old may be known for his Heisman trophy win at the University of Florida in ’07, his two seasons as a rookie quarterback with the Denver Broncos and for being the man behind the Internet meme “Tebowing” — the position Tebow assumes when he takes a knee to pray during games — but what about his fashion sense?  Read more from LA Times >>>>

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The Broncos have made a habit of playing so-so – even subpar – football for 55 minutes before pulling off the come-from-behind victory in the waning moments.

So why bother watching a replay?  There’s a lot “bleh” to sit through…to which I say: You watch when it includes the added audio commentary of Tim Tebow.

NFL Network will air the Broncos’ Week 14 overtime win against the Bears at 6 p.m. MT.   The broadcast, edited to 90 minutes, will include field-level camera angles and the wired-for-sound Tebow.

You can re-hear Tebow’s audio following the game’s play on Sound FX, NFL Network’s “best of” from the prior week.

I wasn’t privy to a preview of tonight’s broadcast, but the Denver Post’s Mike Klis was.

More Broncos praise

Wide receiver Eric Decker’s football fundamentals are getting some national attention.

The second-year player out of Minnesota has been named to USA Football’s All Fundamentals Team, which salutes 26 NFL players for “executing the fundamentals of their positions.”

According to its website:

“Decker uses his hands, not his body, to catch passes. Even when a pass is high, he keeps his thumbs and index fingers together and secures the ball by tucking it close to his body after the catch.”

The other recognized wide receiver is Green Bay’s Donald Driver.  Teammate Aaron Rodgers was named the most fundamentally sound quarterback for the second straight year.

Cornerback Champ Bailey was named to the team in 2010.  Ryan Clady was selected in 2009.

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