The moment the lower-third graphic flashes “SELECTION” during the NFL Draft, just about every fan base of every team immediately starts to wonder if the name about to appear on screen will ultimately be the next great find. For the same reasons we buy lottery tickets, go to casinos, and allow the E-Trade baby to continue his reign of unmitigated terror (dislike!), the draft is yet another chance to believe against statistics.

The gimmick of “grading” drafts has actually become so cliche it’s spawned its own antithetical cliche of explaining how drafts can’t be truly graded for five years. So let’s go ahead and not do any of that…or at least say we won’t.

Instead, we’ll take the same basic premise of prognosticating the impact of the Denver Broncos’ latest draft haul, but base it off of position rather than player. It seems appropriate to take this approach as the Broncos are not a fundamentally flawed team. As much as some may point to the team’s earlier-than-expected playoff exit, there is no unit on the current roster that remotely approaches woeful status. Yes, the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, and Atlanta Falcons bruised the secondary, but those teams did the same to most every secondary. (It’s also worth noting an equally big factor in Denver losing was its own offense’s inability to adequately respond.)

For our purposes, let’s assume the Broncos were more or less in the ballpark in their assessment of talent (i.e. the personnel crew didn’t greatly overvalue or undervalue any of the selections). With that in mind, we’ll go through each unit, and what influence the latest crop of Broncos should have on each unit.

Defensive Line

Addressed in Rounds: 1, 5

Positions Drafted: DT, DE

2012 Impressions: An improved, but still slightly suspect unit. Strong edge rush ability, but significant interior lapses. Inability to sustain pressure in middle against pass, and against strong running games (especially Houston and the Kansas City Chiefs).

2013 Projection: Additions of Sylvester Williams and veteran Terrance Knighton will greatly improve unit’s ability to occupy blockers, possibly making edge rush more effective. Loss of Elvis Dumervil should be obsolete with additions of veteran free agent Shaun Phillips and rookie Quanterus Smith (if healthy). True tackles will allow Denver more personnel packages with versatile Derek Wolfe. Kevin Vickerson and Mitch Unrein allow interior depth with potential for continued development or additional minutes by Malik Jackson.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Um, maybe. The Broncos should greatly benefit from the added size in the interior, but the big men must have stellar conditioning to make an impact against a hyper tempo offense.

Secondary

Addressed in Round: 3

Position Drafted: CB

2012 Impressions: Much of what the Broncos did on defense began with the premise that Champ Bailey would take away one side of the field (this mainly happened…yet again). Strong performances by committee opposite Bailey. Susceptible to getting beat deep on the outside, and frequently faced interior mismatches with above-average or better tight ends and slot receivers. Difficulty against elite passing attacks.

2013 Projection: See above. Nothing against Kayvon Webster, but the third rounder probably isn’t jumping Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie, Chris Harris, Tony Carter, and perhaps even Omar Bolden. Sure, injuries and heavy use of sub-packages could get Webster some reps, but this wasn’t a “play now” pick. As much as we’d like to wish otherwise, there likely wasn’t a corner in this draft who would’ve given Denver a decided edge against elite passing attacks. So long as the Broncos get solid special teams play out of Webster, any flashes of competence on defense this season would be a bonus.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Probably not. The best Denver can hope for is enough drop-off between Wes Welker and Danny Amendola to make the slot threat a wash. Denver should continue to hold up well against New England’s receivers, but the tight ends still remain a conundrum without a clear solution.

Running Back

Rookie running back Montee Ball was the Wisconsin offensive workhorse. (courtesy Bflbarlow)

Addressed in Round: 2

Position Drafted: RB

2012 Impressions: An effective non-threat. Solid all-around contributions by Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno. Ronnie Hillman billed as home-run hitter, but only showed it in spurts. In general, the ground game was something opposing defenses had to be mindful of, but not scheme against to stop. McGahee and Moreno were as valuable as blockers and receiving out of the backfield as they were running. Unit was good enough to allow Denver to sustain late-game drives with the lead.

2013 Projection: Probably better, maybe the same. Montee Ball enters the league as a workhorse back with a strong record of production at Wisconsin. One frequent concern is he took too much of a beating in college and injuries will catch up to him. This is pretty baseless. You could easily say guys who only started two years in college lack the durability to stay injury-free in the pros. The injury discussion is meaningful though, as Denver has endured successive seasons of injuries to its backfield. Ideally, Ball makes it possible for Denver to dismiss his cousin (not really) Lance. If that can happen this unit can sustain a suitable, if not mind-blowing level of play.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Yes…provided injuries are avoided, and what Denver does with its roster. Ultimately, the Broncos would be best served to be in a situation where Hillman is no longer asked to be something he’s not (a pounding interior runner). This can be accomplished with a committee of Moreno and Ball, or McGahee, Moreno, and Ball, etc. Depth and health from the bigger backs will allow the Broncos to fuel an up-tempo offense with a fresh backfield and multi-dimensional depth.

Receiver

Addressed in Round: 5

Position Drafted: WR

2012 Impressions: Statistically strong, but not quite mesmerizing. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker teamed to form one of the league’s most productive duos. Brandon Stokely epitomized reliable in the slot. Aside from them…not much else to love. Capable of big plays. Could disappear at times. No one player consistently inspired spectators to ask, “How is that guy always getting so open?”

2013 Projections: On paper, scary. With a season of experience both Thomas and Decker should now be extremely comfortable with the abilities and expectations of Peyton Manning. Still, both need to develop as route runners and develop more dependability in getting open. Addition of Welker may greatly assist with this. The Broncos now have exactly 1/5 of the league’s 2012 reception leaders on the roster. Still lack a bona fide downfield threat. Tavarres King could be that piece as he’s billed as a quick-start speed guy. If this proves true and he develops consistency (which he’ll need if he wants to see any playing time with Manning), the Broncos passing game alone could pose a world of problems of league defenses.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Better be…downing elite teams relies heavily on putting points on the board as quickly and often as possible. Denver’s points must come fluidly through the air.

Offensive Line

Addressed in Round: 6

Position Drafted: OT

2012 Impressions: Solid unit that too often contended with injuries showing a noticeable lack of all-around depth. While the line inevitably wasn’t able to keep Manning upright all season, it did keep him from getting drilled by unobstructed rushers for the most part. Average run-blocking ability. Run-blocking did improve when Denver was playing with large leads, but then again, doesn’t everything?

The Broncos added depth at O-line with the signing of San Diego’s Louis Vasquez. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

2013 Projections: The addition of Virginia Tech’s Vinston Painter doesn’t beef up this unit. However, the addition of San Diego’s Louis Vasquez helps tremendously. A little more fortune on the health front should make this unit stingy once again, and hopefully slightly more effective on the ground. The Broncos don’t need a great running game to win a championship, but if they manage to find one it makes a Super Bowl run all the more likely. Denver has attempted to quietly reinforce the line through late round draft selections the past two years…the hope is returning veterans and free agency fillers allow these players to develop.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Yes. Vasquez should provide needed strength against big D-Lineman (including massive Vince Wilfork). With the Broncos receiving threats its unlikely teams will be willing to send extra personnel after Manning on a regular basis. If this unit can ratchet up its win/loss record on the line of scrimmage, it will be tough predicament for defenses: Blitz Manning and risk big plays, or let him cut you apart four yards at a time.

Quarterback

Addressed in Round: 7

Position Drafted: QB…shocking, huh

2012 Impressions: (Gleeful laughter)

2013 Projections: STAY HEALTHY, PEYTON!! (If this doesn’t happen, I’ll be real honest, it’s not really going to matter that much that Denver drafted Zac Dysert.) The one thing I will say about Dysert is that while he was likely drafted to compete with Brock Osweiler, he’s more like one of those horses trainers bring in to keep their Triple Crown hopefuls company. While it remains a mystery whether Osweiler will truly be the quarterback of the future, the Broncos obviously want to nudge him without threatening him. The team’s gamble is that Manning stays healthy for at least another full season. Right now, throwing Osweiler in as a starter likely puts him into action ahead of schedule…never a good thing.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: You bet with Manning. Not a chance without.

The Denver Broncos emerged as a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2012. By all accounts they’re entering 2013 with more upgrades than downgrades. The team finally appears to have landed a key player in a position they’ve struggled to fill in past drafts (defensive tackle), and bolstered other positions that weren’t necessarily broken, but needed some extra umph. All in all, the one thing we can confidently say is the Broncos emerged from the free agency frenzy and draft without obviously screwing up (Dumervil weirdness aside). This team isn’t far from a championship, but needs to be proven right on its personnel decisions quickly, as the window to a Super Bowl inches ever closer to closed.

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As recently as three days ago, it was very easy to look at some of the pending and/or reported moves going on in Kansas City and think, “Man, the Chiefs could make a run at this thing next year.”

Anyone still feeling that way?

John Elway and the Denver Broncos once again have made a major free agency splash by acquiring Wes Welker. The move is bold, and puts Denver into that rarified category of: By all accounts this team should absolutely be in the Super Bowl next year.

While it’s inaccurate to say Welker’s free agency was ignored, it is fair to say that it wasn’t overly touted – an interesting fact considering the following:

In 2012, Welker led the NFL in receptions, was third in receiving yards, and was 11th in catch rate when targeted (translation: having the 11th most dependable set of hands). Let’s examine that last part a little further.

Interestingly, the man Welker will likely be replacing, Brandon Stokley, was the second most sure-handed receiver in the NFL last year (behind Green Bay’s Randall Cobb). Stokley hauled in exactly three of every four balls thrown his way. Welker brought in exactly two out of every three, which is only slightly worse than Eric Decker. The big qualifier in all of this? How many times each one was targeted.

Stokley: 64 targets

Decker: 132 targets

Welker: 200 targets

That’s right…Wes Welker was thrown to more times than Brandon Stokley and Eric Decker combined last season. The man gets open. In fact, the only receivers thrown at more times than Welker were Indianapolis’ Reggie Wayne and Detroit’s Calvin Johnson.

What’s now absolutely bonkers is that as things stand right now, the Denver Broncos and the Atlanta Falcons will be the only teams to enter 2013 with THREE of the top 20 receivers (in terms of receptions) on their rosters.

Hey, Wes, I can actually like you again!

Possibly the best takeaway from the Welker acquisition is the fact that we no longer have to collectively hate him! Years ago Welker was a plucky rookie that, in several occasions, was the lone bright spot on a hapless Miami Dolphins team. He played hard, even once having to assume kicking duties, and was a guy you wanted to support. Then the Patriots snatched Welker up, making it extremely difficult to root for him as he proceeded to help annihilate most every opponent in the league.

Now though…now we can all celebrate another big Broncos move. What better way to appreciate the tenacity of John Elway’s moves than to reflect back into the recent past: Think back to December 2010…bad huh? Okay now flash forward to now and remember Peyton Manning, Von Miller, and Wes Welker are now Broncos!

It’s okay to smile.

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Disappointing: performance, coaching, execution, season.

As Broncos playoff chokes go, this one still probably doesn’t top Jacksonville in 1996, but it’s still a choke, and a big one at that. There’s so much to discuss, and what I don’t want to do is start irrationally calling for anyone’s head or major roster moves, but if anything, this game does leave the Broncos and supporters with a few tough questions.

One overall note on the weather. Yes, it was bitterly cold. It was the same weather for the Baltimore Ravens though. Do the Broncos win in more temperate conditions? Maybe, but maybe not. If any player can’t perform on a cold January evening they’re in the wrong line of work.

Let’s begin with what went well. This won’t take long…unfortunately, and that’s why we’re here.

The highlight: Trindon Holliday

Holliday had a masterful performance. Two returns for touchdowns, one on a punt (90 yards) the other on the kickoff (104 yards) to begin the second half. He was tremendous, and delivered a performance that would have by itself won most games. The problem was his offense missed opportunities, and his defense failed to show up.

Now, to the less appealing: Offense

On the plus side the offense generated 21 points. Not great, but not terrible. Still, we’ve grown accustomed to seeing more. Peyton Manning didn’t have a great game, and his three turnovers serve as a haunting ending to his season. His first interception appeared to be more an instance of Eric Decker having a ball bounce off his hands. (There was contact early on the play that wasn’t called, but regardless, Decker was in position to catch the pass.)

Manning apparently isn’t at the level of Tom Brady in the eyes of this officiating crew as the officials ruled a fumble on basically the same type of tuck play that launched Brady to a Super Bowl. I suppose there are alternate translations of the famous (or infamous) “tuck rule.”

Peyton Manning had three turnovers in the Denver Broncos’ loss to the Baltimore Ravens. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Manning’s final turnover was ugly, and decision he would obviously like to have back – as would we. Decker and Demaryius Thomas either froze in the cold or under the pressure. Neither was particularly impressive, or particularly reliable.

Knowshon Moreno may be a tragic case. Once again, with things moving in the right direction he leaves the game. It’s a really tough thing to say, but are we back to having the conversation about whether he can be a fixture on this roster? To be fair, we don’t know the extent of Moreno’s injury, other than it was a knee. His official status, per the team, was ‘questionable’ for return, but he didn’t. My guess is if Moreno was fine, he would have returned. No offense to Ronnie Hillman, but Moreno brought added dimension to the Broncos offense. He can do more than run; he can pick up blitzes, too. And that was a huge asset for this offense late in the season.

Hillman performed admirably. Lance Ball had no idea what he was doing. Jacob Hester was there, and that’s about it.

The offensive line wasn’t lousy, but wasn’t great. It felt as though the unit played the Ravens’ defensive line to a draw. Didn’t win, didn’t lose. This unit can’t shoulder much blame, but they deserve some. Failing to outright win in the trenches is a recipe for playoff exits.

And now to the ridiculously bad: Defense.

Observation A: The Broncos have yet to develop a top-notch defensive line against the pass. Edge rushers are cool, but how many times did we see the Ravens calmly steer Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller deep into the backfield, allowing Joe Flacco to step up with virtually no one in his face? The line continued to play well against the run.

Observation B: It seems like taboo to say, but the conversation probably needs to be had: Has Champ Bailey reached a point where he’s getting by more on reputation than ability? The Ravens made a mockery of his coverage. It wasn’t even due to double moves or elaborate picks. He straight up could not keep up with Torrey Smith. Bailey is still a talented corner, but if all teams have to do is play an extended version of pitch and catch this defense will look a lot worse. And on that note…

Observation C: Rahim Moore. He put together a great season. I don’t believe he undid it all with one really, really bad play. Moore will be the goat, but in general the Broncos secondary (aside from one nice pass defense by Mike Adams) was abysmal. Moore’s play will be viewed in Baltimore as a miracle of sorts, but it was a game-long failure by this unit.

John Fox = Mr. Conservative. And sometimes that’s not a good thing. (personal photo)

And finally…the sad: Coaching

John Fox. Why? It’s the playoffs. Coming out of the two minute warning the Broncos faced 3rd-and-7 approaching midfield. Fox called the “run the ol’ clock down run” with a predictable result: short. Was this due to Manning’s arm being totally numb? Was Manning suffering from a crippling migraine? No. The coaching staff’s conservative philosophy ultimately paved the way for the Broncos to blow this game.

I’m not going to assess any win probability index of passing in an attempt to convert versus running to drain the clock and then punting. I’ll simply say Fox lacked guts. Sure, the pass could have been incomplete thereby stopping the clock, but a first down seals the game. Fox chickened out. As the Ravens still had to score a touchdown to tie and had no timeouts, the additional 30 seconds are negligible. By that I mean the Ravens are likely throwing the ball on every play regardless of the clock. In that situation it’s more an issue of whether your opponent can hit a few big plays to gain the necessary yardage than whether they have enough time to do it.

Running on 3rd-and-7 signaled Fox hoped the clock, rather than his players, would bail the Broncos out. He was wrong, and deserves every bit the blame Moore may receive.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that this Broncos unit will likely remain mostly intact. They now have the shared experience of understanding the disappointment that comes with failing to execute. Move the officiating and weather aside. The Denver Broncos were the team to decide who won and lost this game. Unfortunately the Broncos did more than enough to lose it themselves. They weren’t overmatched, but rather drastically underperformed. Now they get six months to figure out how to never feel this way again.

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Welcome to Quarter Calls, DHF’s quarter-by-quarter breakdown of each Denver Broncos game. Instead of a live game thread, Quarter Calls is a quick-hit summary of the big story of each quarter. It can be a general mood or theme, play, penalty, injury, whatever.

If you prefer real time analysis and commentary, follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter. As always, I’ll be tweeting throughout the game.

Go Broncos!

Denver Broncos inactives: QB Caleb Hanie, WR Andre Caldwell, CB Tracy Porter, FB Chris Gronkowski, WR Julius Thomas, G C.J. Davis, DT Sealver Siliga

Baltimore Ravens inactives: WR David Reed, S Omar Brown, CB Chris Johnson, OLB Adrian Hamilton, G/T Ramon Harewood, WR Deonte Thompson, DT Bryan Hall

1st Quarter

(3:17 p.m.) Well, that quarter had everything, notably a rowdy crowd at Sports Authority Field at Mile High that went from rowdy to irate in a matter of minutes.

Denver’s highlight was obviously Trindon Holliday’s 90-yard punt return for a touchdown, the longest play in NFL postseason history.

But it seems Holliday’s historical run was overshadowed by a few unfortunate plays, plays that infuriated the home crowd. First, the Ravens were beneficiaries of a pass interference on Tony Carter on third down, a call that extended Baltimore’s drive enough for Torrey Smith to torch Champ Bailey and tie the game. Just seconds later, after some contact involving Eric Decker, Peyton Manning’s pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

Tied game at 14. Buckle up, folks, we have three more quarters to go.

2nd Quarter

(4:10 p.m.) What has been the biggest difference so far between this game and the Broncos/Ravens first meeting four weeks ago?

Pass rush, or in this case, lack thereof.

And it’s that lacking pass rush that’s enabled Torrey Smith to have a huge first half.

Smith has two catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns, burning Bailey each time. Bailey was assigned to Smith in Week 15, but was far more effective. Why? Because Flacco was getting pressured early and often and forced throws. Bailey will win that type of one-on-one matchup, but won’t have the same success against a speedy Smith in a set play executed to perfection.

What are the Broncos options? Switch Chris Harris to Smith and give Bailey Anquan Boldin? Maybe the best solution is lighting a fire with your front seven. Flacco will turn over the football, either through throwing interceptions or fumbles.

Your move, Jack Del Rio.

3rd Quarter

(5:13 p.m.) Thank goodness for Trindon Holliday. He’s been the only real spark for Denver. His 104-yard kickoff return gave the Broncos a lead, a lead Denver held until Ray Rice’s 1-yard touchdown run in the quarter’s waning seconds.

The offense hasn’t looked its flashy self. (Insert cold weather excuse here.) The defense recover a fumble but otherwise haven’t looked stellar. (Insert cold weather excuse here.) And the officiating continues to be the big story. This just about says it all…

Look, I’m not one of those blame the refs types, but the officiating crew is too heavily involved in the game. We need less Bill Vinovich…

And while I’m at it, Dan Dierdorf, too.

4th Quarter

 (6:04 p.m.) Rahim Moore, you picked a heckuva time to make a huge mistake – the biggest mistake of your young career.

That’s about all I have to say. This game should be over, and it’s not. I’m stunned, shocked, mad, and nervous.

OVERTIME

(6.49 p.m.) Folks, what we just witnessed was a pathetically terrible way to end a season. There’s so much blame to go around.

Other than Holliday’s two touchdowns, there were no other highlights for the Broncos, and that was the difference maker. The Broncos have been so well balanced this season – in all three phases of the game – so when only one phase is playing well, victory is that much more difficult to come by.

Conservative play calls? Sure. Momentum-changing officiating? Yes. Underwhelming performance by the AFC’s No. 1 seed? Absolutely.

The end result is a bitter taste we’re stuck with until next season.

Final: Baltimore 38, Denver 35

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Considering it’s a divisional playoff game, and the Denver Broncos’ first with Peyton Manning at the helm, it feels like there should be more in-depth storylines to dissect. When I really think about it though, there is a lot to consider, but nothing warranting a thousand words. In that spirit, here are some thoughts, facts, and observations I’m mulling ahead of Saturday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens.

New Day for Denver

Much has been made of this potentially being Ray Lewis’ final NFL game. It would serve as a fitting bookend for Lewis who competed in his first playoff game on New Year’s Eve day in 2000 against the Broncos. The Baltimore Ravens won 21-3 on the way to a Super Bowl victory. Yet, a Denver victory Sunday could also been seen as the closing of a chapter. That game in 2000 was Denver’s first playoff game post-John Elway. Since then, Denver has returned to the playoffs only four other times (twice being knocked out by Peyton Manning). A win Saturday will not only signal what is perhaps the start of a demise for a Ravens defense that has been dominant for the past decade, but also the end of a period that saw the Broncos stay competitive, but just outside the bubble of a perennial playoff contender.

Is Baltimore the Sneaky On-A-Roll Team?

Also known as “Who is this year’s New York Giants?” Wild Card weekend didn’t offer much help in identifying the lower seeded team who could win it all, or even IF there was a lower seeded team who could win it all. Take a look at last weekend’s winners:

• Houston Texans: Lackluster victory over a one-dimensional offensive opponent. Impressive outing for running game against a solid defense. Displayed no indications they would create a matchup problem for a team with an elite quarterback.
• Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks arrived in the playoffs after several weeks of blowing out opponents (and a tight Week-17-so-who-really-cares victory). Not surprised they won. Would hardly characterize Seattle as a team that “eked in and started surprising people.” Too good, and too consistent of a defense.
• Green Bay Packers: Under no one’s radar. Elite quarterback who was the league’s MVP last season. Yeah, not sneaking up on anyone.
• Baltimore Ravens: Inspired victory against a team that should have been about .500 or slightly worse based on point differential. Was the Indianapolis Colts’ defense that porous or has the Ravens offense clicked that much? Is the Ravens’ defense that stout in the red zone, or did the Colts bumble the execution of too many plays? Too many variables to say for sure.

As these things generally go, I would probably pick No. 3 seeded Houston as that Wild Card weekend sleeper contender. If the Texans truly return to a potent run game, the defense and passing game are both still good enough to deliver a tough matchup. The same could also be said for Baltimore, but it just feels like more of a stretch. I could see the Ravens hanging tough, but I could also see a situation where it becomes evident early on that Baltimore is mainly smoke and mirrors. The big names on defense may be back, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if we’re talking Sunday about how it was evident they just weren’t at full strength.

Is Saturday the last call for LB Ray Lewis? (courtesy Keith Allison)

For the Record

Are you like me? Are you getting tired of the “argument” that the Broncos have only won against bad teams? Here’s my big issue with that: Yes, it’s true for the most part, but it’s not like these were close wins. Sure the Broncos may not have compiled an impressive 11-game winning streak had the team been pitted against the NFC West or played in the AFC South.

This isn’t college; coaches can’t schedule light. It’s often luck of the draw.

Before the season began, Denver’s schedule looked daunting. That was before we knew the New Orleans Saints really would be hamstrung by Bountygate, or Cam Newton’s Carolina Panthers wouldn’t improve on the past season, or the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs would somehow find a way to get substantially worse.

The Broncos won a lot of games against inferior competition, and won handily. That’s what good teams are supposed to do.

Meanwhile, Baltimore did manage to lose to the Philadelphia Eagles, beat the Chiefs 9-6, and escape a loss to the vaunted Chargers due to a play that had both a personal foul, and would’ve have required Ray Rice to be nearly 6’5″ (it’s trigonometry folks – based on where his knee hit, there is no possible way the ball was extended beyond the line of gain).

Who’s Elite?

You know what would really help out Joe Flacco? Winning this game. He’d be able to say “he” was able to outduel Peyton Manning, and “he” was still worthy of being considered an elite quarterback (not that logically, “he” refers to the Ravens, and more specifically, Ray Rice and the Ravens defense). A win would help Flacco’s case.

A win would also really help secure Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker as an elite receiving tandem. The two have been playing exceedingly well lately after what was at times an inconsistent start to the season. A trip to the AFC Championship should formalize their ascendency as a 1-2 pair that poses a big problem for defensive coordinators.

Salvaging a Season for Rice

Ray Rice has had an underwhelming season…by Ray Rice standards. Two playoff victories should be enough for him to escape questions of whether he should still be considered a big time threat. What isn’t falling in his favor is the Denver defense. Despite several big rushing days (Houston, New England, Kansas City), the Broncos front seven hasn’t allowed many running games to get going. Even the ones that did failed to single-handedly dictate the outcome of a game. If the Broncos make this game a proposition of whether Flacco can engineer enough points through the air this one will be finished well before the final whistle.

The Chris Harris Pick-Six Happened

With this guy on your side, you have to feel good. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Another quick beef…I’m a little irritated by the notion that the first times these teams met, the game would have been totally different if not for Harris’ interception. You know what? It could have been. But you know what? It wasn’t.

The Broncos could have also tallied victories in Atlanta and Houston if not for some unfortunate turnovers. Both the Ravens and Broncos could have won some additional games if they executed better. So could every other team.

Remove just the Harris interception, and the only difference is the Ravens trail 24-10 heading into the fourth quarter, the Broncos don’t fully let off the gas, and the game ends pretty much in the same fashion.

Final Note

It’s the playoffs. No outcome can be guaranteed, and the price of losing increases dramatically. All this said, the game really will come down to a simple question: Are the Broncos focused enough?

Even if the Ravens “want it more” than Denver, they still can’t match the talent of the Broncos. If Denver consistently fails to execute, it could spell trouble. If the Broncos execute for the most part and turn mistakes into minor hiccups, the Ravens still don’t win this one. If the Broncos play flawlessly, the Ravens not only lose, but lose big. The following weeks may provide a different scenario, but if the Broncos’ season ends Saturday evening it will be because the Broncos managed to end it themselves. My hunch is that’s just not going to happen.

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With the dust now settled on Sunday’s dismantling of the Kansas City Chiefs and coronation of the Denver Broncos as the AFC’s top seed, here are a few additional thoughts on the game, the regular season, and postseason chances.

Air No Grievances- Perhaps the biggest sign this team is hitting on all cylinders is the play of the Broncos’ top two receivers: Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. Recall the beginning of the season if you will. Sometimes they were overthrown, other times the ball was on the money and dropped, many times the ball was on the money but the coverage was so tight neither Decker nor Thomas could manage to make the “big play” catch.  The receiving duo has evolved this season.  In the opening weeks, it was common to see both players begging for calls rather than coming up with catches on contested passes.  There’s no begging now, just production.

Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas: Solid in training camp promise…and it’s paying dividends now. (personal photo)

On Sunday, Decker was pinned against the side of the end zone by two Chiefs and managed to haul in a one-handed touchdown grab.  It was terribly impressive, and outdone a short time later by Thomas climbing the ladder in the back of the end zone to make a one-handed highlight submission of his own.  This duo used to need space to make plays.  Lately it’s been making them in tight quarters.  If Decker and Thomas continue to show they can’t be stopped – even with good coverage – then the Broncos become a truly dangerous Super Bowl contender.

Hard Lessons – Denver’s coaching staff doesn’t hesitate to make an example of players.  Ronnie Hillman became the latest victim with a turnover, a turnover  that for a few moments seemed to be heading toward nightmare scenario status.  The rookie running back’s fumble nearly resulted in a game-tying Kansas City touchdown, left offensive lineman Orlando Franklin hurt, and resulted in Peyton Manning getting entangled with Joel Dreessen in touchdown-saving tackle.

Bad, bad play for Hillman.  Bad enough to end his regular season a few quarters early.

Lost fumbles remain a problem for the Denver offense.  Hillman seemingly stopped what was shaping up to be another touchdown drive (that likely would’ve put the game on the verge of over-before-halftime status), and then proceeded to fluster the offense for another series thereafter.  Luckily, the Chiefs woeful offense couldn’t do much in the way of capitalizing on the huge momentum shift.  If a New England Patriots rematch is the Broncos’ destiny, a breakdown in ball security will very well end the Broncos’ season, and if a running back is responsible, you can bet he’ll be on the outside of the lineup looking in heading into the offseason.

Make no mistake, the Denver Broncos defense is sizzling this year. (personal photo)

Recipe for Success – The Broncos defense surrendered its lowest point total of the season, allowing Kansas City only three points (and that was on the drive that began in the red zone due to Hillman’s fumble).  In the Broncos’ 11-game winning streak, the team has surrendered an average of roughly 16 points per game.  You’ll recall a decent amount of that opposition scoring has come when the game was well in hand (a.k.a. garbage time). Taking out 4th quarter opponent scores that happened in the final five minutes of games in which the Broncos had a double digit lead, the Broncos have allowed opponents an average of 12.5 point per game.

Considering the Broncos lowest point total of the season was 17 against Kansas City in Week 12, and the team has scored 30 or more points in all but five games, it’s not difficult to see why Denver finishes the regular season as the AFC’s top team.  The playoffs bring solid offenses to town, but the Broncos made it clear that most, if not all teams, will have to work hard for points.

You Heard It Here – It’s deserving of no prize other than the satisfaction of saying, “I totally called it.” Several weeks ago, Denver Horse Force posited the Broncos had a legitimate shot of winding up as the AFC’s top seed.

Houston’s trouncing at New England opened the door for an intriguing set of circumstances: Broncos win out, New England loses once more, and Houston loses two of three.  Not surprisingly, Denver’s role was the easiest to predict as the Broncos demonstrated total superiority against the Baltimore Ravens, fledgling Cleveland Browns, and a lost Chiefs outfit.

DHF also liked the Niners against New England as the San Francisco defense is EXACTLY the type of group that gives Tom Brady problems as it can, and did, play the Patriots straight up in man coverage and generated pressure without blitzing.  The Texans’ crumble was also easy to see with the Minnesota Vikings having a workable defense and a solid offensive line to wear down Houston.  Oh, and the Texans’ loss this past Sunday was of no surprise. If you watched Chuck Pagano’s news conference the previous Monday you just knew there was no way Indianapolis was losing that game.  No way.  The football gods would simply not allow the Colts to lose at home in Pagano’s return.

Okay, gloating finished.

Playoff Snapshot – So, what’s the next call?  Good question.  We’ll get more into playoff breakdowns and predictions later in the week, but for now I’ll say I don’t see a potential divisional opponent capable of coming to Denver and beating the Broncos.

The Ravens and Bengals have already lost to Denver at their places, and frankly I don’t see either team faring better on the road.  As an admitted Colts fan, I’m not going to root against Indianapolis, but I really, really, really don’t want to see the Colts have to face Manning in Denver.  It would be too weird and emotionally unsettling – to put it mildly.  If it did happen, despite the great and improbable season the Colts have orchestrated, I just don’t see that magic getting very far, especially against a Broncos team that knows what a “magical” season feels like, and saw how brutally it can end.

So, the short of it…Denver plays for the conference championship. How it gets there, and whom it plays against will be discussed later in the week.

Follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter at @DENHorseForce and Facebook at www.facebook.com/denverhorseforce.

Welcome to Quarter Calls, DHF’s quarter-by-quarter breakdown of each Denver Broncos game. Instead of a live game thread, Quarter Calls is a quick-hit summary of the big story of each quarter. It can be a general mood or theme, play, penalty, injury, whatever.

If you prefer real time analysis and commentary, follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter. As always, I’ll be tweeting throughout the game.

Go Broncos!

Pregame: Denver Broncos inactives: C. Hanie, T. Holliday, T. Porter, C. Gronkowski, J. Thomas, C. Davis, and S. Siliga.

1st Quarter

(2:56 p.m.)  The Denver Broncos did score on their opening possession, and have a 7-0 lead.

However, that lead could very well be 14-0…if not for Ronnie Hillman’s fumble.

As a result, the Chiefs enter the 2nd quarter just five yards away from tying the game.  Here’s hoping the Chiefs offense sputters as it usually does, and Kansas City is relegated to a field goal attempt.

2nd Quarter

 (3:46 p.m.) Finally some breathing room…

After a closer-than-it-should-have-been first 25 minutes, the Broncos finally seem to be in control, thanks largely to Eric Decker.

Decker caught two touchdown passes in the 2nd quarter to help propel Denver to a 21-3 lead.

But the quarter wasn’t that easy.  Following Hillman’s fumble, the Broncos strung together a series of bad plays, marred by miscues and penalties, and seemingly handed over any momentum to Kansas City.  It took that first touchdown-scoring drive of the quarter, and a missed field goal by the Chiefs, to swing the mojo back in Denver’s favor.

And the Broncos aren’t about to let up.  Denver is set to receive to start the second half.

3rd Quarter

(4:36 p.m.) Let me put this simply: The Chiefs’ goose is cooked.

The Denver Broncos are in control. Total control.  The score: 35-3. The Broncos dominated the quarter putting 14 more points on the board with an amazing Demaryius Thomas catch, and a steady downfield drive that ended with another rushing touchdown. On defense…well, put it this way, the Chiefs still only have three points on the board and haven’t been remotely close of adding any more.

Only 15 more minutes to make this official; Denver will have the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Enter Brock Osweiler.

4th Quarter

 (5:11 p.m.) 11 straight wins…6-0 against the AFC West…

And the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs.

The Broncos enter the playoffs with a Wild Card weekend bye and are arguably the most well-rounded team in the league.

Win two more home games, and you’re in the Super Bowl.  The AFC’s road to New Orleans runs through Denver.

Follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter at @DENHorseForce and Facebook at www.facebook.com/denverhorseforce.

With the frost now settled after Denver’s tenth consecutive win, this one at the expense of the Cleveland Browns, here are a few additional thoughts with one game remaining in the regular season.

Bad News First – Let’s just get it out of the way: the Denver Broncos’ punt returners are a problem. It was apparent the Broncos lost enough trust in Trindon Holliday that the team opted to send Jim Leonhard back deep to receive punts at the start of the game.  The personnel move showed the Broncos obviously felt one of the main ways Cleveland could have any chance in this game was by forcing a big error, potentially on special teams.  So the Broncos trotted out the sure-handed-if-not-flashy Leonhard, who then proceeded to muff a fair catch.  Oy.  When the playoffs arrive, could there be situations where the Broncos don’t even attempt to field punts?  If the offense keeps moving as it has been having Leonhard or Holliday back there seems almost like an unneeded risk.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas has 1,312 receiving yards this season. (personal photo)

Just Catch It – Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker didn’t create tons of separation once again, especially downfield. The positive is that it didn’t really matter.  Peyton Manning placed perfect throws to each, and despite good coverage, both came up with big catches, and touchdowns.  It’s important both keep a strong mentality of fighting for the ball, and using their strength to make plays.  Earlier this season, both succumbed to the temptation of looking for a flag rather than going all in to make a play.  Kudos to the duo for making big time catches in tight coverage.

Playing the Schedule – A consistent refrain on sports radio last week was whether Denver’s seemingly simple stretch run put the team at a big disadvantage heading into the playoffs.  It’s been interesting to see that while the Broncos continue to say all the right “next game is the most important” things, the team is basically using its final games as pre-playoff tune-ups.  Head coach John Fox stated the offense frequently operated from a two tight-end set, not hugely common to that point, in Baltimore because they wanted to work on that formation.  Manning utilized a glove yesterday not because he needed it, but because he might in January.  The Broncos sent a message to cornerback Tony Carter by deactivating him, starting Tracy Porter in his place, and relying on rookie Omar Bolden as the final line of nickel defense when Porter was injured.

In short, the Denver Broncos are in a playoff push with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs at stake, and feel they are good enough to tinker.  The scary thing is they’re right.  The scarier thing is while other teams have been fighting tooth and nail to hold their position, or gain entrance to the tournament, the Broncos are winning while managing to boost other facets of their game.  So, for the record, no…I don’t think an easier stretch schedule will negatively affect the Broncos.

What’s the Reality? – While the Broncos were systematically blowing out Cleveland in non-splashy fashion, the Baltimore Ravens absolutely dismantled the New York Giants.  Similar to several weeks ago, an AFC North team (back then it was the Cincinnati Bengals) ripped through the Giants a week after getting gouged by Denver.  So, is it that Denver is that good, or the Giants are that bad?  I guess it really depends on the level of quality you associate with the AFC North’s top two teams.  In this instance I’d say it’s more a case of the Giants being bad as Cincinnati and Baltimore have been very unimpressive in recent defeats, and hardly authoritarian in recent victories.  At the same time, the Ravens and Bengals are probably on the dividing line between contenders and everyone else. Those Denver victories aren’t signature wins like victories against the Atlanta Falcons or New England Patriots would have been, but they prove the Broncos are legitimately well above the playoff threshold.

Hate to Say I Told You So – Remember a week ago?  Remember how after the Patriots dropped that Sunday night thriller the talk was about the Broncos getting the two seed?  Remember how Denver Horse Force brushed off that talk, and posited the Broncos still had a legitimate shot for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs?  Well…if you don’t…it happened.  Now here we are.  One week left.  If the Broncos can meet expectations and get the Kansas City Chiefs that number one draft pick, and the Houston Texans stumble at Indianapolis against the Chuck Pagano-led Colts, the prophecy is fulfilled.

For those who may think the odds are long, let me point out I didn’t just say, “Hey, Denver could still get the one-seed.”  I told you how it would happen.  Broncos win out, Texans lose their final two.  How it was a big surprise that the Minnesota Vikings, a team with a sneaky-good defense and downright dangerous running threat, proved to be a matchup nightmare for Houston is beyond me.  The Texans’ loss should be even less surprising as the Vikings are playing for their season. Unlike Houston, Minnesota entered that game with ZERO guarantee of playing after next weekend.

So, what happens now that Houston does have a lot riding on a game, and their opponent is locked into the AFC’s fifth seed regardless of the outcome?  I’m sticking with my story: Houston still loses to Indianapolis.  Statistically they shouldn’t. Motivation-wise, the Texans’ are the team with more to play for: win and get home field advantage throughout, lose and they likely drop into Wild Card weekend and get a single home game as the three-seed.  The Colts’ are playing a road game the following weekend regardless, likely at Baltimore or possibly at New England. In most every situation this game is meaningless for Indianapolis.

Except…and this a HUGE except…enter Chuck Pagano, who returns as head coach just in time for his playoff-bound team’s regular season finale.  In all likelihood,  it will be the final time this season the Colts play at home – in front of a crowd that has embraced the courageous, tremendous, and improbable ‘Chuckstrong’ storyline that’s unfolded this season.  The Colts say they’ve fought and won to allow Pagano to return so he could coach the team in the playoffs.  Does anything about this sound like this is a game Indianapolis will phone in?  Does anything about this sound like a situation that favors the Houston Texans?  There’s no way the Colts are losing that one.  No way.  No how.

The Denver Broncos will gain the AFC’s top seed.

Merry Christmas.

Follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter at @DENHorseForce and Facebook at www.facebook.com/denverhorseforce.

Welcome to Quarter Calls, DHF’s quarter-by-quarter breakdown of each Denver Broncos game. Instead of a live game thread, Quarter Calls is a quick-hit summary of the big story of each quarter. It can be a general mood or theme, play, penalty, injury, whatever.

If you prefer real time analysis and commentary, follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter. As always, I’ll be tweeting throughout the game.

Go Broncos!

Pregame: Denver Broncos inactives:

• G Chris Kuper
• WR Andre Caldwell
• FB Chris Gronkowski
• TE Julius Thomas
• QB Caleb Hanie
• CB Tony Carter
• DT Sealver Siliga

Cleveland Browns inactives:

• TE Jordan Cameron
• WR Mohamed Massaquoi
• DB Tashaun Gipson
• RB Brandon Jackson
• LB Adrian Moten
• DL Ishmaa’ily Kitchen
• OL Jarrod Shaw

1st Quarter

(2:33 p.m.) Great start for the Denver Broncos.  Not even three minutes in, Peyton Manning found Demaryius Thomas for a 22-yard touchdown.

Defensively, however, the Broncos looked a bit slow out of the gates, making the Cleveland Browns offense look like giant-killers.  Luckily their opening drive stalled in the red zone, and Cleveland settled on a field goal.

Tidbits: Cornerback Tracy Porter is in the locker room after a hard hit.  Running back Knowshon Moreno already has 30 rushing yards.

2nd Quarter

(3:28 p.m.) “Second verse, same as the first!” 

The good: Eric Decker’s 10-yard touchdown reception to cap off another impressive drive.

The kinda bad: Denver’s defense has yet to make a big play, but has been successfully keeping Cleveland from reaching the end zone.

Cleveland’s defense has given up a lot of yards – 285 to be exact – but has limited the Broncos’ scoring opportunities.  Looking at Denver’s stats through one half, it reads more like a team that should have 28 points on the board – not 14.

This still feels like a game the Broncos should win, but you hate to see those upset ingredients – such as the Manning end zone interception to end the half. It’s the type of play that allows the Browns to remain confident. Hopefully it’s also the type of play that motivates Denver to execute, finish drives, and put the Brown away for good in the second half.

3rd Quarter

(4:16 p.m.) The Broncos are finally showing why they’re the superior team.

Other than giving up a field goal, Denver has looked in complete and total control.  The Broncos added another touchdown and are threatening again.

Defensively, the Broncos pass rush is finally stepping up, with Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller playing like their usual selves.  Browns backup quarterback Colt McCoy played briefly in the 3rd quarter in for Weeden, who seems to have a shoulder injury of some kind.

This game really isn’t in doubt, so sit back and count down until the ten-game win streak becomes official.

4th Quarter

(5:13 p.m.)  Well, well, well…that was never really in question, was it?

From my perspective, it didn’t appear Cleveland played a bad game. The Browns turned the ball over once on a muffed punt, but also intercepted Manning to finish even on giveaway/takeaways. What really showed is that despite a solid effort by the Browns, it would’ve taken a virtuoso performance for them to hang with the Broncos. Denver wasn’t so much flashy as much as deadly efficient.

The game was finished before the halfway mark of the 4th quarter. While the drama of last season’s antics was exciting, it’s been fun to see the Broncos put teams away with time to spare the past few weeks.

The Denver Broncos are winners of ten straight games, and remain in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

Follow Denver Horse Force on Twitter at @DENHorseForce and Facebook at www.facebook.com/denverhorseforce.