The moment the lower-third graphic flashes “SELECTION” during the NFL Draft, just about every fan base of every team immediately starts to wonder if the name about to appear on screen will ultimately be the next great find. For the same reasons we buy lottery tickets, go to casinos, and allow the E-Trade baby to continue his reign of unmitigated terror (dislike!), the draft is yet another chance to believe against statistics.

The gimmick of “grading” drafts has actually become so cliche it’s spawned its own antithetical cliche of explaining how drafts can’t be truly graded for five years. So let’s go ahead and not do any of that…or at least say we won’t.

Instead, we’ll take the same basic premise of prognosticating the impact of the Denver Broncos’ latest draft haul, but base it off of position rather than player. It seems appropriate to take this approach as the Broncos are not a fundamentally flawed team. As much as some may point to the team’s earlier-than-expected playoff exit, there is no unit on the current roster that remotely approaches woeful status. Yes, the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, and Atlanta Falcons bruised the secondary, but those teams did the same to most every secondary. (It’s also worth noting an equally big factor in Denver losing was its own offense’s inability to adequately respond.)

For our purposes, let’s assume the Broncos were more or less in the ballpark in their assessment of talent (i.e. the personnel crew didn’t greatly overvalue or undervalue any of the selections). With that in mind, we’ll go through each unit, and what influence the latest crop of Broncos should have on each unit.

Defensive Line

Addressed in Rounds: 1, 5

Positions Drafted: DT, DE

2012 Impressions: An improved, but still slightly suspect unit. Strong edge rush ability, but significant interior lapses. Inability to sustain pressure in middle against pass, and against strong running games (especially Houston and the Kansas City Chiefs).

2013 Projection: Additions of Sylvester Williams and veteran Terrance Knighton will greatly improve unit’s ability to occupy blockers, possibly making edge rush more effective. Loss of Elvis Dumervil should be obsolete with additions of veteran free agent Shaun Phillips and rookie Quanterus Smith (if healthy). True tackles will allow Denver more personnel packages with versatile Derek Wolfe. Kevin Vickerson and Mitch Unrein allow interior depth with potential for continued development or additional minutes by Malik Jackson.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Um, maybe. The Broncos should greatly benefit from the added size in the interior, but the big men must have stellar conditioning to make an impact against a hyper tempo offense.

Secondary

Addressed in Round: 3

Position Drafted: CB

2012 Impressions: Much of what the Broncos did on defense began with the premise that Champ Bailey would take away one side of the field (this mainly happened…yet again). Strong performances by committee opposite Bailey. Susceptible to getting beat deep on the outside, and frequently faced interior mismatches with above-average or better tight ends and slot receivers. Difficulty against elite passing attacks.

2013 Projection: See above. Nothing against Kayvon Webster, but the third rounder probably isn’t jumping Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie, Chris Harris, Tony Carter, and perhaps even Omar Bolden. Sure, injuries and heavy use of sub-packages could get Webster some reps, but this wasn’t a “play now” pick. As much as we’d like to wish otherwise, there likely wasn’t a corner in this draft who would’ve given Denver a decided edge against elite passing attacks. So long as the Broncos get solid special teams play out of Webster, any flashes of competence on defense this season would be a bonus.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Probably not. The best Denver can hope for is enough drop-off between Wes Welker and Danny Amendola to make the slot threat a wash. Denver should continue to hold up well against New England’s receivers, but the tight ends still remain a conundrum without a clear solution.

Running Back

Rookie running back Montee Ball was the Wisconsin offensive workhorse. (courtesy Bflbarlow)

Addressed in Round: 2

Position Drafted: RB

2012 Impressions: An effective non-threat. Solid all-around contributions by Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno. Ronnie Hillman billed as home-run hitter, but only showed it in spurts. In general, the ground game was something opposing defenses had to be mindful of, but not scheme against to stop. McGahee and Moreno were as valuable as blockers and receiving out of the backfield as they were running. Unit was good enough to allow Denver to sustain late-game drives with the lead.

2013 Projection: Probably better, maybe the same. Montee Ball enters the league as a workhorse back with a strong record of production at Wisconsin. One frequent concern is he took too much of a beating in college and injuries will catch up to him. This is pretty baseless. You could easily say guys who only started two years in college lack the durability to stay injury-free in the pros. The injury discussion is meaningful though, as Denver has endured successive seasons of injuries to its backfield. Ideally, Ball makes it possible for Denver to dismiss his cousin (not really) Lance. If that can happen this unit can sustain a suitable, if not mind-blowing level of play.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Yes…provided injuries are avoided, and what Denver does with its roster. Ultimately, the Broncos would be best served to be in a situation where Hillman is no longer asked to be something he’s not (a pounding interior runner). This can be accomplished with a committee of Moreno and Ball, or McGahee, Moreno, and Ball, etc. Depth and health from the bigger backs will allow the Broncos to fuel an up-tempo offense with a fresh backfield and multi-dimensional depth.

Receiver

Addressed in Round: 5

Position Drafted: WR

2012 Impressions: Statistically strong, but not quite mesmerizing. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker teamed to form one of the league’s most productive duos. Brandon Stokely epitomized reliable in the slot. Aside from them…not much else to love. Capable of big plays. Could disappear at times. No one player consistently inspired spectators to ask, “How is that guy always getting so open?”

2013 Projections: On paper, scary. With a season of experience both Thomas and Decker should now be extremely comfortable with the abilities and expectations of Peyton Manning. Still, both need to develop as route runners and develop more dependability in getting open. Addition of Welker may greatly assist with this. The Broncos now have exactly 1/5 of the league’s 2012 reception leaders on the roster. Still lack a bona fide downfield threat. Tavarres King could be that piece as he’s billed as a quick-start speed guy. If this proves true and he develops consistency (which he’ll need if he wants to see any playing time with Manning), the Broncos passing game alone could pose a world of problems of league defenses.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Better be…downing elite teams relies heavily on putting points on the board as quickly and often as possible. Denver’s points must come fluidly through the air.

Offensive Line

Addressed in Round: 6

Position Drafted: OT

2012 Impressions: Solid unit that too often contended with injuries showing a noticeable lack of all-around depth. While the line inevitably wasn’t able to keep Manning upright all season, it did keep him from getting drilled by unobstructed rushers for the most part. Average run-blocking ability. Run-blocking did improve when Denver was playing with large leads, but then again, doesn’t everything?

The Broncos added depth at O-line with the signing of San Diego’s Louis Vasquez. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

2013 Projections: The addition of Virginia Tech’s Vinston Painter doesn’t beef up this unit. However, the addition of San Diego’s Louis Vasquez helps tremendously. A little more fortune on the health front should make this unit stingy once again, and hopefully slightly more effective on the ground. The Broncos don’t need a great running game to win a championship, but if they manage to find one it makes a Super Bowl run all the more likely. Denver has attempted to quietly reinforce the line through late round draft selections the past two years…the hope is returning veterans and free agency fillers allow these players to develop.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: Yes. Vasquez should provide needed strength against big D-Lineman (including massive Vince Wilfork). With the Broncos receiving threats its unlikely teams will be willing to send extra personnel after Manning on a regular basis. If this unit can ratchet up its win/loss record on the line of scrimmage, it will be tough predicament for defenses: Blitz Manning and risk big plays, or let him cut you apart four yards at a time.

Quarterback

Addressed in Round: 7

Position Drafted: QB…shocking, huh

2012 Impressions: (Gleeful laughter)

2013 Projections: STAY HEALTHY, PEYTON!! (If this doesn’t happen, I’ll be real honest, it’s not really going to matter that much that Denver drafted Zac Dysert.) The one thing I will say about Dysert is that while he was likely drafted to compete with Brock Osweiler, he’s more like one of those horses trainers bring in to keep their Triple Crown hopefuls company. While it remains a mystery whether Osweiler will truly be the quarterback of the future, the Broncos obviously want to nudge him without threatening him. The team’s gamble is that Manning stays healthy for at least another full season. Right now, throwing Osweiler in as a starter likely puts him into action ahead of schedule…never a good thing.

Good enough to beat Patriots?: You bet with Manning. Not a chance without.

The Denver Broncos emerged as a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2012. By all accounts they’re entering 2013 with more upgrades than downgrades. The team finally appears to have landed a key player in a position they’ve struggled to fill in past drafts (defensive tackle), and bolstered other positions that weren’t necessarily broken, but needed some extra umph. All in all, the one thing we can confidently say is the Broncos emerged from the free agency frenzy and draft without obviously screwing up (Dumervil weirdness aside). This team isn’t far from a championship, but needs to be proven right on its personnel decisions quickly, as the window to a Super Bowl inches ever closer to closed.

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On Monday we learned that Zane Beadles and Demaryius Thomas were named as replacements to the 2013 Pro Bowl AFC roster.  They join Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller, and Peyton Manning in Hawaii for Sunday’s game. (Ryan Clady was also named, but pulled out due to injury.)

But that’s not all. Denver coaches will lead the AFC, and there’s a Broncos cheerleader representative, who has to learn some 20 routines before the game. Seriously, though, it’s entirely possible she’ll be working harder than many of the players.  Props, Tara.

Other Headlines:

• Associated Press: Todd Helton helping Peyton Manning cope with Broncos’ loss in playoffs
• The Denver Post: Did NFL officials make the grade in Broncos-Ravens game?
• The Denver Post: Aurora home of Derrick Martin, New England Patriots player, robbed while he was on the field
• Rant Sports: Denver Broncos Offseason Analysis: Defensive Line

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Disappointing: performance, coaching, execution, season.

As Broncos playoff chokes go, this one still probably doesn’t top Jacksonville in 1996, but it’s still a choke, and a big one at that. There’s so much to discuss, and what I don’t want to do is start irrationally calling for anyone’s head or major roster moves, but if anything, this game does leave the Broncos and supporters with a few tough questions.

One overall note on the weather. Yes, it was bitterly cold. It was the same weather for the Baltimore Ravens though. Do the Broncos win in more temperate conditions? Maybe, but maybe not. If any player can’t perform on a cold January evening they’re in the wrong line of work.

Let’s begin with what went well. This won’t take long…unfortunately, and that’s why we’re here.

The highlight: Trindon Holliday

Holliday had a masterful performance. Two returns for touchdowns, one on a punt (90 yards) the other on the kickoff (104 yards) to begin the second half. He was tremendous, and delivered a performance that would have by itself won most games. The problem was his offense missed opportunities, and his defense failed to show up.

Now, to the less appealing: Offense

On the plus side the offense generated 21 points. Not great, but not terrible. Still, we’ve grown accustomed to seeing more. Peyton Manning didn’t have a great game, and his three turnovers serve as a haunting ending to his season. His first interception appeared to be more an instance of Eric Decker having a ball bounce off his hands. (There was contact early on the play that wasn’t called, but regardless, Decker was in position to catch the pass.)

Manning apparently isn’t at the level of Tom Brady in the eyes of this officiating crew as the officials ruled a fumble on basically the same type of tuck play that launched Brady to a Super Bowl. I suppose there are alternate translations of the famous (or infamous) “tuck rule.”

Peyton Manning had three turnovers in the Denver Broncos’ loss to the Baltimore Ravens. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Manning’s final turnover was ugly, and decision he would obviously like to have back – as would we. Decker and Demaryius Thomas either froze in the cold or under the pressure. Neither was particularly impressive, or particularly reliable.

Knowshon Moreno may be a tragic case. Once again, with things moving in the right direction he leaves the game. It’s a really tough thing to say, but are we back to having the conversation about whether he can be a fixture on this roster? To be fair, we don’t know the extent of Moreno’s injury, other than it was a knee. His official status, per the team, was ‘questionable’ for return, but he didn’t. My guess is if Moreno was fine, he would have returned. No offense to Ronnie Hillman, but Moreno brought added dimension to the Broncos offense. He can do more than run; he can pick up blitzes, too. And that was a huge asset for this offense late in the season.

Hillman performed admirably. Lance Ball had no idea what he was doing. Jacob Hester was there, and that’s about it.

The offensive line wasn’t lousy, but wasn’t great. It felt as though the unit played the Ravens’ defensive line to a draw. Didn’t win, didn’t lose. This unit can’t shoulder much blame, but they deserve some. Failing to outright win in the trenches is a recipe for playoff exits.

And now to the ridiculously bad: Defense.

Observation A: The Broncos have yet to develop a top-notch defensive line against the pass. Edge rushers are cool, but how many times did we see the Ravens calmly steer Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller deep into the backfield, allowing Joe Flacco to step up with virtually no one in his face? The line continued to play well against the run.

Observation B: It seems like taboo to say, but the conversation probably needs to be had: Has Champ Bailey reached a point where he’s getting by more on reputation than ability? The Ravens made a mockery of his coverage. It wasn’t even due to double moves or elaborate picks. He straight up could not keep up with Torrey Smith. Bailey is still a talented corner, but if all teams have to do is play an extended version of pitch and catch this defense will look a lot worse. And on that note…

Observation C: Rahim Moore. He put together a great season. I don’t believe he undid it all with one really, really bad play. Moore will be the goat, but in general the Broncos secondary (aside from one nice pass defense by Mike Adams) was abysmal. Moore’s play will be viewed in Baltimore as a miracle of sorts, but it was a game-long failure by this unit.

John Fox = Mr. Conservative. And sometimes that’s not a good thing. (personal photo)

And finally…the sad: Coaching

John Fox. Why? It’s the playoffs. Coming out of the two minute warning the Broncos faced 3rd-and-7 approaching midfield. Fox called the “run the ol’ clock down run” with a predictable result: short. Was this due to Manning’s arm being totally numb? Was Manning suffering from a crippling migraine? No. The coaching staff’s conservative philosophy ultimately paved the way for the Broncos to blow this game.

I’m not going to assess any win probability index of passing in an attempt to convert versus running to drain the clock and then punting. I’ll simply say Fox lacked guts. Sure, the pass could have been incomplete thereby stopping the clock, but a first down seals the game. Fox chickened out. As the Ravens still had to score a touchdown to tie and had no timeouts, the additional 30 seconds are negligible. By that I mean the Ravens are likely throwing the ball on every play regardless of the clock. In that situation it’s more an issue of whether your opponent can hit a few big plays to gain the necessary yardage than whether they have enough time to do it.

Running on 3rd-and-7 signaled Fox hoped the clock, rather than his players, would bail the Broncos out. He was wrong, and deserves every bit the blame Moore may receive.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that this Broncos unit will likely remain mostly intact. They now have the shared experience of understanding the disappointment that comes with failing to execute. Move the officiating and weather aside. The Denver Broncos were the team to decide who won and lost this game. Unfortunately the Broncos did more than enough to lose it themselves. They weren’t overmatched, but rather drastically underperformed. Now they get six months to figure out how to never feel this way again.

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Considering it’s a divisional playoff game, and the Denver Broncos’ first with Peyton Manning at the helm, it feels like there should be more in-depth storylines to dissect. When I really think about it though, there is a lot to consider, but nothing warranting a thousand words. In that spirit, here are some thoughts, facts, and observations I’m mulling ahead of Saturday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens.

New Day for Denver

Much has been made of this potentially being Ray Lewis’ final NFL game. It would serve as a fitting bookend for Lewis who competed in his first playoff game on New Year’s Eve day in 2000 against the Broncos. The Baltimore Ravens won 21-3 on the way to a Super Bowl victory. Yet, a Denver victory Sunday could also been seen as the closing of a chapter. That game in 2000 was Denver’s first playoff game post-John Elway. Since then, Denver has returned to the playoffs only four other times (twice being knocked out by Peyton Manning). A win Saturday will not only signal what is perhaps the start of a demise for a Ravens defense that has been dominant for the past decade, but also the end of a period that saw the Broncos stay competitive, but just outside the bubble of a perennial playoff contender.

Is Baltimore the Sneaky On-A-Roll Team?

Also known as “Who is this year’s New York Giants?” Wild Card weekend didn’t offer much help in identifying the lower seeded team who could win it all, or even IF there was a lower seeded team who could win it all. Take a look at last weekend’s winners:

• Houston Texans: Lackluster victory over a one-dimensional offensive opponent. Impressive outing for running game against a solid defense. Displayed no indications they would create a matchup problem for a team with an elite quarterback.
• Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks arrived in the playoffs after several weeks of blowing out opponents (and a tight Week-17-so-who-really-cares victory). Not surprised they won. Would hardly characterize Seattle as a team that “eked in and started surprising people.” Too good, and too consistent of a defense.
• Green Bay Packers: Under no one’s radar. Elite quarterback who was the league’s MVP last season. Yeah, not sneaking up on anyone.
• Baltimore Ravens: Inspired victory against a team that should have been about .500 or slightly worse based on point differential. Was the Indianapolis Colts’ defense that porous or has the Ravens offense clicked that much? Is the Ravens’ defense that stout in the red zone, or did the Colts bumble the execution of too many plays? Too many variables to say for sure.

As these things generally go, I would probably pick No. 3 seeded Houston as that Wild Card weekend sleeper contender. If the Texans truly return to a potent run game, the defense and passing game are both still good enough to deliver a tough matchup. The same could also be said for Baltimore, but it just feels like more of a stretch. I could see the Ravens hanging tough, but I could also see a situation where it becomes evident early on that Baltimore is mainly smoke and mirrors. The big names on defense may be back, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if we’re talking Sunday about how it was evident they just weren’t at full strength.

Is Saturday the last call for LB Ray Lewis? (courtesy Keith Allison)

For the Record

Are you like me? Are you getting tired of the “argument” that the Broncos have only won against bad teams? Here’s my big issue with that: Yes, it’s true for the most part, but it’s not like these were close wins. Sure the Broncos may not have compiled an impressive 11-game winning streak had the team been pitted against the NFC West or played in the AFC South.

This isn’t college; coaches can’t schedule light. It’s often luck of the draw.

Before the season began, Denver’s schedule looked daunting. That was before we knew the New Orleans Saints really would be hamstrung by Bountygate, or Cam Newton’s Carolina Panthers wouldn’t improve on the past season, or the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs would somehow find a way to get substantially worse.

The Broncos won a lot of games against inferior competition, and won handily. That’s what good teams are supposed to do.

Meanwhile, Baltimore did manage to lose to the Philadelphia Eagles, beat the Chiefs 9-6, and escape a loss to the vaunted Chargers due to a play that had both a personal foul, and would’ve have required Ray Rice to be nearly 6’5″ (it’s trigonometry folks – based on where his knee hit, there is no possible way the ball was extended beyond the line of gain).

Who’s Elite?

You know what would really help out Joe Flacco? Winning this game. He’d be able to say “he” was able to outduel Peyton Manning, and “he” was still worthy of being considered an elite quarterback (not that logically, “he” refers to the Ravens, and more specifically, Ray Rice and the Ravens defense). A win would help Flacco’s case.

A win would also really help secure Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker as an elite receiving tandem. The two have been playing exceedingly well lately after what was at times an inconsistent start to the season. A trip to the AFC Championship should formalize their ascendency as a 1-2 pair that poses a big problem for defensive coordinators.

Salvaging a Season for Rice

Ray Rice has had an underwhelming season…by Ray Rice standards. Two playoff victories should be enough for him to escape questions of whether he should still be considered a big time threat. What isn’t falling in his favor is the Denver defense. Despite several big rushing days (Houston, New England, Kansas City), the Broncos front seven hasn’t allowed many running games to get going. Even the ones that did failed to single-handedly dictate the outcome of a game. If the Broncos make this game a proposition of whether Flacco can engineer enough points through the air this one will be finished well before the final whistle.

The Chris Harris Pick-Six Happened

With this guy on your side, you have to feel good. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Another quick beef…I’m a little irritated by the notion that the first times these teams met, the game would have been totally different if not for Harris’ interception. You know what? It could have been. But you know what? It wasn’t.

The Broncos could have also tallied victories in Atlanta and Houston if not for some unfortunate turnovers. Both the Ravens and Broncos could have won some additional games if they executed better. So could every other team.

Remove just the Harris interception, and the only difference is the Ravens trail 24-10 heading into the fourth quarter, the Broncos don’t fully let off the gas, and the game ends pretty much in the same fashion.

Final Note

It’s the playoffs. No outcome can be guaranteed, and the price of losing increases dramatically. All this said, the game really will come down to a simple question: Are the Broncos focused enough?

Even if the Ravens “want it more” than Denver, they still can’t match the talent of the Broncos. If Denver consistently fails to execute, it could spell trouble. If the Broncos execute for the most part and turn mistakes into minor hiccups, the Ravens still don’t win this one. If the Broncos play flawlessly, the Ravens not only lose, but lose big. The following weeks may provide a different scenario, but if the Broncos’ season ends Saturday evening it will be because the Broncos managed to end it themselves. My hunch is that’s just not going to happen.

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With the dust now settled on Sunday’s dismantling of the Kansas City Chiefs and coronation of the Denver Broncos as the AFC’s top seed, here are a few additional thoughts on the game, the regular season, and postseason chances.

Air No Grievances- Perhaps the biggest sign this team is hitting on all cylinders is the play of the Broncos’ top two receivers: Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. Recall the beginning of the season if you will. Sometimes they were overthrown, other times the ball was on the money and dropped, many times the ball was on the money but the coverage was so tight neither Decker nor Thomas could manage to make the “big play” catch.  The receiving duo has evolved this season.  In the opening weeks, it was common to see both players begging for calls rather than coming up with catches on contested passes.  There’s no begging now, just production.

Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas: Solid in training camp promise…and it’s paying dividends now. (personal photo)

On Sunday, Decker was pinned against the side of the end zone by two Chiefs and managed to haul in a one-handed touchdown grab.  It was terribly impressive, and outdone a short time later by Thomas climbing the ladder in the back of the end zone to make a one-handed highlight submission of his own.  This duo used to need space to make plays.  Lately it’s been making them in tight quarters.  If Decker and Thomas continue to show they can’t be stopped – even with good coverage – then the Broncos become a truly dangerous Super Bowl contender.

Hard Lessons – Denver’s coaching staff doesn’t hesitate to make an example of players.  Ronnie Hillman became the latest victim with a turnover, a turnover  that for a few moments seemed to be heading toward nightmare scenario status.  The rookie running back’s fumble nearly resulted in a game-tying Kansas City touchdown, left offensive lineman Orlando Franklin hurt, and resulted in Peyton Manning getting entangled with Joel Dreessen in touchdown-saving tackle.

Bad, bad play for Hillman.  Bad enough to end his regular season a few quarters early.

Lost fumbles remain a problem for the Denver offense.  Hillman seemingly stopped what was shaping up to be another touchdown drive (that likely would’ve put the game on the verge of over-before-halftime status), and then proceeded to fluster the offense for another series thereafter.  Luckily, the Chiefs woeful offense couldn’t do much in the way of capitalizing on the huge momentum shift.  If a New England Patriots rematch is the Broncos’ destiny, a breakdown in ball security will very well end the Broncos’ season, and if a running back is responsible, you can bet he’ll be on the outside of the lineup looking in heading into the offseason.

Make no mistake, the Denver Broncos defense is sizzling this year. (personal photo)

Recipe for Success – The Broncos defense surrendered its lowest point total of the season, allowing Kansas City only three points (and that was on the drive that began in the red zone due to Hillman’s fumble).  In the Broncos’ 11-game winning streak, the team has surrendered an average of roughly 16 points per game.  You’ll recall a decent amount of that opposition scoring has come when the game was well in hand (a.k.a. garbage time). Taking out 4th quarter opponent scores that happened in the final five minutes of games in which the Broncos had a double digit lead, the Broncos have allowed opponents an average of 12.5 point per game.

Considering the Broncos lowest point total of the season was 17 against Kansas City in Week 12, and the team has scored 30 or more points in all but five games, it’s not difficult to see why Denver finishes the regular season as the AFC’s top team.  The playoffs bring solid offenses to town, but the Broncos made it clear that most, if not all teams, will have to work hard for points.

You Heard It Here – It’s deserving of no prize other than the satisfaction of saying, “I totally called it.” Several weeks ago, Denver Horse Force posited the Broncos had a legitimate shot of winding up as the AFC’s top seed.

Houston’s trouncing at New England opened the door for an intriguing set of circumstances: Broncos win out, New England loses once more, and Houston loses two of three.  Not surprisingly, Denver’s role was the easiest to predict as the Broncos demonstrated total superiority against the Baltimore Ravens, fledgling Cleveland Browns, and a lost Chiefs outfit.

DHF also liked the Niners against New England as the San Francisco defense is EXACTLY the type of group that gives Tom Brady problems as it can, and did, play the Patriots straight up in man coverage and generated pressure without blitzing.  The Texans’ crumble was also easy to see with the Minnesota Vikings having a workable defense and a solid offensive line to wear down Houston.  Oh, and the Texans’ loss this past Sunday was of no surprise. If you watched Chuck Pagano’s news conference the previous Monday you just knew there was no way Indianapolis was losing that game.  No way.  The football gods would simply not allow the Colts to lose at home in Pagano’s return.

Okay, gloating finished.

Playoff Snapshot – So, what’s the next call?  Good question.  We’ll get more into playoff breakdowns and predictions later in the week, but for now I’ll say I don’t see a potential divisional opponent capable of coming to Denver and beating the Broncos.

The Ravens and Bengals have already lost to Denver at their places, and frankly I don’t see either team faring better on the road.  As an admitted Colts fan, I’m not going to root against Indianapolis, but I really, really, really don’t want to see the Colts have to face Manning in Denver.  It would be too weird and emotionally unsettling – to put it mildly.  If it did happen, despite the great and improbable season the Colts have orchestrated, I just don’t see that magic getting very far, especially against a Broncos team that knows what a “magical” season feels like, and saw how brutally it can end.

So, the short of it…Denver plays for the conference championship. How it gets there, and whom it plays against will be discussed later in the week.

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What’s wrong with planning ahead?

Nothing, especially if what you’re planning ahead for is a given…

Say the upcoming NFL playoffs and the 2013 schedule.

Chronologically, let’s talk playoffs first, where the AFC West champion Denver Broncos are fighting for the conference’s No. 1 seed.  If the Broncos win Sunday at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver is guaranteed a first-round bye, even if the Houston Texans hold onto the No. 1 seed.

While getting to the playoffs is one thing, making a deep run is another.  The Broncos are equipped to go very, very far…but still have things to work on, including improved play on special teams.  One turnover can make the difference between playing another week or heading home.

As for the 2013 regular season, we now know all of Denver’s opponents.

Home:

• Kansas City
• Oakland
• San Diego
• Jacksonville
• Tennessee
• Philadelphia
• Washington
• Baltimore

Away:

• Kansas City
• Oakland
• San Diego
• Houston
• Indianapolis
• Dallas
• N.Y. Giants
• New England

Notice that Peyton Manning will play against his former team and against his brother Eli’s team – both on the road.

The complete schedule will be released in April.

Other Headlines:

• Associated Press: Manning, Peterson, Pagano: 2012 a year to remember
• CBS Denver: Demaryius Thomas Has Blossomed Into No 1 Receiver For Denver Broncos
• Denver Broncos: Elvis Dumervil: The Closer
• Denver Post: Broncos-Patriots NFL playoff match-up already on the front burner for some
• NFL.com: Why the Denver Broncos are Super Bowl favorites

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Cornerback Champ Bailey, left tackle Ryan Clady, defensive end Elvis Dumervil, quarterback Peyton Manning, and outside linebacker Von Miller have been named to the Pro Bowl.

However, if the Denver Broncos play in the Super Bowl, then those guys won’t be making the trip…

Honestly, I prefer the latter, as I’m sure you do as well.

Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas was among the notable snubs.  He’s a first alternate.  Denver’s other alternates are right guard Chris Kuper (second), left guard Zane Beadles (third), special teamer David Bruton (third), and punter Britton Colquitt (third).  Coincidentally, Colquitt’s brother Dustin was named the AFC’s punter.

Um…where’s Wesley Woodyard?  Really!

The Pro Bowl is Jan. 27, 2013 – one week before the Super Bowl.

View the complete rosters here >>>>

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With the frost now settled after Denver’s tenth consecutive win, this one at the expense of the Cleveland Browns, here are a few additional thoughts with one game remaining in the regular season.

Bad News First – Let’s just get it out of the way: the Denver Broncos’ punt returners are a problem. It was apparent the Broncos lost enough trust in Trindon Holliday that the team opted to send Jim Leonhard back deep to receive punts at the start of the game.  The personnel move showed the Broncos obviously felt one of the main ways Cleveland could have any chance in this game was by forcing a big error, potentially on special teams.  So the Broncos trotted out the sure-handed-if-not-flashy Leonhard, who then proceeded to muff a fair catch.  Oy.  When the playoffs arrive, could there be situations where the Broncos don’t even attempt to field punts?  If the offense keeps moving as it has been having Leonhard or Holliday back there seems almost like an unneeded risk.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas has 1,312 receiving yards this season. (personal photo)

Just Catch It – Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker didn’t create tons of separation once again, especially downfield. The positive is that it didn’t really matter.  Peyton Manning placed perfect throws to each, and despite good coverage, both came up with big catches, and touchdowns.  It’s important both keep a strong mentality of fighting for the ball, and using their strength to make plays.  Earlier this season, both succumbed to the temptation of looking for a flag rather than going all in to make a play.  Kudos to the duo for making big time catches in tight coverage.

Playing the Schedule – A consistent refrain on sports radio last week was whether Denver’s seemingly simple stretch run put the team at a big disadvantage heading into the playoffs.  It’s been interesting to see that while the Broncos continue to say all the right “next game is the most important” things, the team is basically using its final games as pre-playoff tune-ups.  Head coach John Fox stated the offense frequently operated from a two tight-end set, not hugely common to that point, in Baltimore because they wanted to work on that formation.  Manning utilized a glove yesterday not because he needed it, but because he might in January.  The Broncos sent a message to cornerback Tony Carter by deactivating him, starting Tracy Porter in his place, and relying on rookie Omar Bolden as the final line of nickel defense when Porter was injured.

In short, the Denver Broncos are in a playoff push with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs at stake, and feel they are good enough to tinker.  The scary thing is they’re right.  The scarier thing is while other teams have been fighting tooth and nail to hold their position, or gain entrance to the tournament, the Broncos are winning while managing to boost other facets of their game.  So, for the record, no…I don’t think an easier stretch schedule will negatively affect the Broncos.

What’s the Reality? – While the Broncos were systematically blowing out Cleveland in non-splashy fashion, the Baltimore Ravens absolutely dismantled the New York Giants.  Similar to several weeks ago, an AFC North team (back then it was the Cincinnati Bengals) ripped through the Giants a week after getting gouged by Denver.  So, is it that Denver is that good, or the Giants are that bad?  I guess it really depends on the level of quality you associate with the AFC North’s top two teams.  In this instance I’d say it’s more a case of the Giants being bad as Cincinnati and Baltimore have been very unimpressive in recent defeats, and hardly authoritarian in recent victories.  At the same time, the Ravens and Bengals are probably on the dividing line between contenders and everyone else. Those Denver victories aren’t signature wins like victories against the Atlanta Falcons or New England Patriots would have been, but they prove the Broncos are legitimately well above the playoff threshold.

Hate to Say I Told You So – Remember a week ago?  Remember how after the Patriots dropped that Sunday night thriller the talk was about the Broncos getting the two seed?  Remember how Denver Horse Force brushed off that talk, and posited the Broncos still had a legitimate shot for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs?  Well…if you don’t…it happened.  Now here we are.  One week left.  If the Broncos can meet expectations and get the Kansas City Chiefs that number one draft pick, and the Houston Texans stumble at Indianapolis against the Chuck Pagano-led Colts, the prophecy is fulfilled.

For those who may think the odds are long, let me point out I didn’t just say, “Hey, Denver could still get the one-seed.”  I told you how it would happen.  Broncos win out, Texans lose their final two.  How it was a big surprise that the Minnesota Vikings, a team with a sneaky-good defense and downright dangerous running threat, proved to be a matchup nightmare for Houston is beyond me.  The Texans’ loss should be even less surprising as the Vikings are playing for their season. Unlike Houston, Minnesota entered that game with ZERO guarantee of playing after next weekend.

So, what happens now that Houston does have a lot riding on a game, and their opponent is locked into the AFC’s fifth seed regardless of the outcome?  I’m sticking with my story: Houston still loses to Indianapolis.  Statistically they shouldn’t. Motivation-wise, the Texans’ are the team with more to play for: win and get home field advantage throughout, lose and they likely drop into Wild Card weekend and get a single home game as the three-seed.  The Colts’ are playing a road game the following weekend regardless, likely at Baltimore or possibly at New England. In most every situation this game is meaningless for Indianapolis.

Except…and this a HUGE except…enter Chuck Pagano, who returns as head coach just in time for his playoff-bound team’s regular season finale.  In all likelihood,  it will be the final time this season the Colts play at home – in front of a crowd that has embraced the courageous, tremendous, and improbable ‘Chuckstrong’ storyline that’s unfolded this season.  The Colts say they’ve fought and won to allow Pagano to return so he could coach the team in the playoffs.  Does anything about this sound like this is a game Indianapolis will phone in?  Does anything about this sound like a situation that favors the Houston Texans?  There’s no way the Colts are losing that one.  No way.  No how.

The Denver Broncos will gain the AFC’s top seed.

Merry Christmas.

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The fan votes are in…

And right now seven Denver Broncos are in line to be 2013 Pro Bowl starters.  Another ten players are within striking distance.

Fan votes count for one-third of Pro Bowl votes, with coaches and players each making up a third.  Broncos players and coaches will vote Thursday.

The 2013 Pro Bowl roster will be announced Wednesday, Dec. 26 on NFL Network.

Leading the fan vote is quarterback Peyton Manning.  Cornerback Champ Bailey and outside linebacker Von Miller are the AFC’s top vote-getters at their respective positions.

Other “fan starters” include outside linebacker Wesley Woodyard, who trails his teammate.  AFC’s No. 2 defensive end is Elvis Dumervil.  Tackle Ryan Clady and guard Zane Beadles are also in second place at their positions.

Here’s the rest of the list:

3rd Place –

• ST David Bruton
• MLB Keith Brooking
• PR/KR Trindon Holliday
• C Dan Koppen

4th Place –

• P Britton Colquitt
• WR Demaryius Thomas

5th Place –

• S Mike Adams
• FB Chris Gronkowski
• FS Rahim Moore
• K Matt Prater

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With the dust now settled on Sunday’s thorough plucking of the Baltimore Ravens, here are a few additional thoughts on the Denver Broncos latest win.

Dare to Dream - The Broncos definitive victory paired with the New England Patriots’ loss puts Denver in the driver’s seat for a first round playoff bye. The talk right now is focused on Denver winning out and finishing as the two-seed.  I still think heading into Week 16 the focus should remain on the coveted No. 1 seed, given the remaining competition for the Houston Texans.

The Texans’ Week 16 foe, the Minnesota Vikings, are as much on the NFC playoff bubble as a team can get.  Combine that with Adrian Peterson’s very real shot of setting a significant NFL record, and the Vikings truly have everything to play for right now.  If Minnesota gets Peterson going and pulls out a victory in Houston, and the Broncos take care of business against the Cleveland Browns, it sets up Week 17 as the deciding week for seeding.

Denver hosts the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston travels to Indianapolis to play the Colts.  A Colts win this week guarantees them a playoff spot, but don’t underestimate Indy’s desire to win what will likely be the home finale of an amazing season.  The Colts remain hopeful head coach Chuck Pagano will return just in time for the regular-season finale.  The young Colts have exceeded expectations all season long – not to mention re-engerized a fan base.  The culmination of the Chuckstrong movement is not a situation any team would want to walk into if it needed a big road win.

The Broncos must take care of the schedule in front of them, but until Sunday proves otherwise, I still think there’s a better than average chance Denver finishes as the AFC’s top team.  In all likelihood, such a scenario would move the Patriots into the two-seed.

Welcome back, Knowshon! (personal photo)

Back to/of the Future? - Something has happened to Knowshon Moreno.  His solid performance in Baltimore has already spurred talk that the Broncos may not need much from Willis McGahee should he return while the Broncos are still playing.  (McGahee is eligible to return AFC championship weekend.)  Moreno still needs to show he can carry the momentum through more games and continue to run hard, secure the ball, and avoid injury.  It appears he has in fact changed, and the simplest observation as to how is that he’s gotten bigger and more powerful. Perhaps Moreno’s biggest disadvantage until now was that he entered the league as an in-between back…not quite bulky enough to be a power runner, and not quite quick enough to be a finesse rusher.  Realizing he was bouncing off, rather than running through NFL defenders, Moreno tried to make his bones as an agile speedster, and just didn’t have the tools for it. Now he’s bulked up, gotten patient, and appears more focused on finding holes than trying to avoid defenders.  Welcome, Knowshon.  Here’s wishing you all the best.

Power Source - It seems like every week I’m writing this, but it has to be mentioned time and again: The Broncos defense is the true key to this team’s success.  The defense turned in another outstanding effort limiting Baltimore running back Ray Rice and rendering the Ravens offense ineffective until the game was well in hand.  Cornerback Chris Harris’ 98-yard interception return was an electric moment, and a major momentum swinger.  Certainly defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio deserves major credit in his defense planning and schemes, but the players make the plays.  It’s interesting how the Denver defense received little talk, and even some criticism as a questionable unit before the season began.  What can very well be said now is the Broncos defense most definitely kept the team viable last season, and has turned Denver into an elite outfit this season.

Eric Decker’s line from Sunday: 8 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD (personal photo)

Less than Special - The biggest “needs improvement” takeaway from this game is on special teams.  Trindon Holliday encapsulated his polar risk/reward tendencies by fumbling yet another punt return (luckily out of bounds) but also breaking along the sideline for what was nearly another return TD.  Come playoff time he could very well be the guy who wins a game for Denver, or loses it.  Tackling was also an issue for Denver special teams.  Matt Prater had two touchdown saving tackles while Britton Colquitt added one of his own. Great to see that efforts out of the kicking staff, but not great that the kicking staff had to make those types of efforts.

Look! Eric Decker! - Decker delivered one of his best performances in weeks. It was a good thing too as Demaryius Thomas was largely blanketed and blanked from the game. There was some speculation that Thomas may be hurting more than he or the Broncos are letting on.  If that’s the case, it will be imperative Decker, Brandon Stokley, and the tight ends continue to step up in the passing game.  Then again, if the Broncos can continue to run the ball effectively, the receiving corps may have little trouble making an impact.

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