The last time the Denver Broncos grabbed the top seed in the AFC was the 1998-99 season.  That 14-2 Broncos squad drew the Dan Marino-led Miami Dolphins in the divisional round, beat the stuffing out of them, and then handled the New York Jets in the AFC title game, before beating the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl.

It was a great outcome, especially as it also allowed the Broncos to wipe away the bad one-seed mojo of 1996 which saw a top-seeded Broncos team take one of the franchise’s worst losses in the divisional round.  The Denver Broncos organization knows all too well the top spot in the playoffs can be the blessing it’s intended, or a terrible curse. Like any other “win or go home” tournament, so much of the NFL playoffs is about matchups, and gaining a path of least resistance.

Being a top seed seemingly provides a team with that clearer path to the final round.  Seemingly.  The problem is that in the modern NFL, often the hottest team is one who has battled its way into the tournament and brings with it the momentum, focus, and confidence to keep grinding away.

As the top-seed, the Broncos can’t play the Houston Texans, leaving the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Indianapolis Colts as potential opponents.  Any team can win on a given day, and there certainly isn’t such a thing as a guaranteed victory in the NFL playoffs, but here are my cases for and against wanting to see each of the three come to Denver on Jan. 12.

Baltimore Ravens

Pros: The Broncos already beat the Ravens…soundly…in Baltimore. Ray Rice and the Ravens’ running attach was non-existent. The Denver defense kept Joe Flacco flustered throughout the game, and forced him into critical mistakes, one of which basically ended the game just before halftime.

Cons: The Ravens are getting slightly healthier with Ray Lewis expected back for the Wild Card game…though his retirement announcement earlier this week could motivate those around him to “keep winning to prolong Ray’s career.”  Offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell also has some, albeit still not a lot, more experience as the play caller than he did when the team’s met several weeks ago.  While the Broncos kept Rice at bay in the first meeting, he’s too good a player to assume he’d be just as ineffective if he had a second crack at Denver.  The Ravens also have a strong return game on special teams which can be an ultimate weapon in January road games.

Cincinnati Bengals

Pros: Like Baltimore, the Broncos know this team as Denver beat Cincinnati team during the regular season.  The Bengals have only one true offensive weapon in A.J. Green, and second-year quarterback Andy Dalton has played well, but has yet to emerge as an elite prospect.  The Bengals are strong up front, but the secondary didn’t fair well against the Broncos passing game, which by all accounts has gotten even sharper since that meeting.  Also, in the last meeting the Bengals were coming off a bye week which provided them extra time to prepare while this matchup would give Denver the rest and edge.

Cons: Unlike Baltimore, the Bengals gave Denver a game.  Cincinnati has played well against the run all season and has potentially the best interior pass rusher in the league in Geno Atkins.  While the Bengals offense is somewhat one dimensional with the Dalton to Green connection, it’s a dimension that still remains difficult to defend. The Bengals have been solidly good all season, and have the ability to get great if a few supplemental pieces can contribute more regularly.

Indianapolis Colts

Pros: This is the lone AFC playoff team the Broncos didn’t play in 2012.  The Colts are also the paradox team Denver was last season; obtaining a record far better than the team’s negative point differential would suggest.  Quarterback Andrew Luck has been impressive, but has also made the frequent hallmark mistakes of a rookie QB in a true pro-style offense. The Colts’ defense has been good enough when needed as late, but is far from an outfit that appears positioned to frustrate an elite quarterback like Manning.

Cons: Indianapolis could very well be that momentum team.  The Colts have fought all season, winning games they probably shouldn’t have, and uniting with a bona fide “nobody believes in us” cause.  Luck has proven he can find a way to win close games, and the team as a whole seems to find big plays when needed.  It’s difficult to explain exactly how the Colts win games, but they do.  Teams like that are difficult to scheme against.  While the Colts would be getting their first in-person look at Denver, the Broncos would also be getting there’s and there’s something to be said for going with the devil you know.

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What’s making headlines today?  Well, if the above title for this post didn’t give it away, it’s the Denver Broncos’ trouncing of the Carolina Panthers.

Read ‘em and enjoy…’Cause what else is better than reading about your team’s victory?

What they said: Broncos praise defense after stopping Carolina, Newton – The Denver Post

“We’re not perfect, but we have the right mindset about where we need to go.”
–Champ Bailey

Denver Broncos blow out Panthers in Carolina, as Manning ties Marino – The Denver Post

…Manning can continue his quest at an accomplishment Favre never got — a second Super Bowl title. While such talk as a practical matter is premature, there is also evidence that Manning’s current team may have the goods to pull it off.

EXCLUSIVE: Locker Room Celebration (VIDEO) – Denver Broncos

Broncos at Panthers: Fox (VIDEO) – Denver Broncos

Broncos bury Cam Newton, Panthers 36-14 – USA Today

It’s hard to say what’s been the bigger surprise in 2012 – the disappointing sophomore season of Newton, or the thunderous return of Peyton Manning.

Manning ties Marino, Broncos sack Cam seven times in rout – CBSSports.com

Fox, who coached the Panthers for nine seasons, downplayed his return all week, but celebrated on the sideline with a few fist pumps Sunday.

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New Horsepower Fueling Broncos — Part III: The Workouts - Working out in an NFL weight room is not about putting up the biggest possible bench press numbers. For NFL players, lifting is all about improving on-field performance.  The Broncos’ new strength and conditioning program aims to do just that.  “In a sense, it’s more core-related, stability and flexibility—things of that nature that the football field relates to,” Pro Bowl defensive end Elvis Dumervil said about the new program. “I think it makes it more of a functional strength. There are a lot of great things I think that you can implement toward football that we do in the weight room. I’m very excited about it.”  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Countdown To Denver Broncos Football: Overcoming Summer Blues – Most people have the winter doldrums. For me, I have an extra pep in my step when it’s cold, snowy, and football rules the kingdom. Summer, particularly this time period, drains me, and leaves me longing for cooler weather and jam-packed football days. Summers aren’t characterized by no school, sun-kissed hair, countless hours in a pool, and days spent barefoot in the grass anymore. That’s what happens when you become an adult.  Read more from Predominantly Orange >>>> 

Denver Broncos: Stat Predictions for Every Broncos RB in 2012 - It’s prediction time again, and this time the spotlight is on the Denver Broncos’running back stable—a group that is coming off an impressive season and will be expected to produce again even with the departure of second-leading rusher Tim Tebow.  Read more from Bleacher Report >>>> 

Marino OK being Manning’s ‘back-up’ for charity - It is not often, if ever, that a Hall-of-Fame quarterback is introduced to a throng of media and fans as a back-up quarterback. But when it happened on Monday at a charity golf tournament for the Niswonger Children’s Hospital located in Johnson City, Tenn., Dan Marino certainly didn’t mind, especially when he was that day’s understudy to the event’s headline quarterback, Peyton Manning.  Read more from Bluefield Daily Telegraph >>>>

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Denver Horse Force wraps up its end-of-season report cards with a look at John Elway.  To see DHF’s evaluation of John Fox and the coordinators, go HERE and HERE.

When former football superstars take front office jobs it seems as though the result is more often cautionary tale than a transference of success.  For each Ozzie Newsome there is a Dan Marino and Matt Millen.  When the reeling Denver Broncos organization announced John Elway as its new executive vice president of football operations there was plenty of skepticism.

Sure, Elway went to five Super Bowls (a feat which has now only been tied by Tom Brady*), but that was as a player.  Of course his resume includes successful turns in the auto and restaurant business, but those aren’t football.  Certainly his arena football team brought home a championship, but in those games you are always working, literally, with a net.  All that sounds good but would it prepare Elway to be star in the odd space where the game of football meets the business of football?

Dear John: Thanks for joining the Broncos' front office.

With a season in the books the answer is a confident yes.  Just take a look at some of the big changes that happened on John Elway’s watch.

• Hired John Fox: One of the biggest problems facing the Broncos after the 2010 season was a crisis in leadership.  Instead of going after a hot coordinator who could very well turn out to be just as bad a motivator as Josh McDaniels, Elway hired a steady hand.

• Kept Brian Xanders: A somewhat controversial move at the time, it appears not only keeping Xanders, but allowing him to actually be a GM is paying dividends.  Elway was savvy enough to realize that cleaning house may have appeased fans in the short term, but wouldn’t have done much else.  Listen to Xanders talk and its apparent he has a great football mind, and now has the power to put it to work.

• Drafted 2.5 starters: Elway can’t take all the credit here, but deserves plenty for assembling his draft team.  Von Miller was a good decision in what amounted to be a very difficult choice.  Orlando Franklin started every game.  Quinton Carter started coming on late in the season with more game experience under his belt.  Put it this way, if Denver can replicate that kind of off-season haul for the next couple years this team could start looking very dangerous.

The Kyle Orton situation could have been handled better. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Of course, the biggest hiccup during the season had to be waiving Kyle Orton.  It’s probably safe to bet that faced with a similar situation in the future, Elway will play that one a bit differently.  There was a high probability Orton was going to end up on the roster of a team the Broncos still had to face.  While waiving Orton was a nice thing to do, it may have not been the right thing to do.  Lesson learned.  Perhaps though, it was that karma that allowed Denver to make the playoffs despite losing to Orton in the season finale.

Final Grade: B+

Not perfect, but even as a player Elway’s was never known for perfect passing.  If his executive tenure follows his playing career, he’ll just be known for being better than the opposition when it counts.

*Expanding on the quick mention of most career Super Bowl starts by a quarterback, doesn’t this stat alone strengthen arguments for Elway in “best ever” discussions?  Elway was on the losing end of three Super Bowls, but those were Dan Reeves seasons.  While an excellent coach, Reeves never had the systems of Bill Walsh or Bill Belichick.  Those Super Bowls were products of solid defense, and a quarterback who could just flat out beat people.

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You can imagine the difficulty of trying to write daily thoughts about the Denver Broncos without distinctly picking a side on the Tebow Issue.   There’s really no reason to root against the guy, especially win he collects wins, but on the other hand it’s hard to see how Tebow’s 3-1 record in 2011 has been remotely possible.  There’s just as much justification for “Tebow will figure it out”-ers as there is for “Tebow can’t play quarterback”-ers.

However, there is one argument we’re hearing more and more of in Denver and beyond that just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.  It generally goes something like this:

“If you don’t have a quarterback who can win you a championship, you’re aren’t on the right track.  Tim Tebow is not an Super Bowl quarterback.”

Now I understand it has to be frustrating to believe the Broncos are wasting their time, yet Tebow’s win loss record keeps improving despite his lack of passing ability.  However, in the spirit of breaking a bad argument habit allow me to counter with: “How do we know which quarterbacks can win a Super Bowl?”

Yes, it sounds like a dumb question, but consider the following:

- Would a Dolphins fan in 1991 think Dan Marino was the wrong move for that team?

- Redskins fans must have felt great in September 1987 knowing they had Doug Williams and no one else did.

- If only the Bills of the early 90′s and Vikings of the 70′s had been able to land the Trent Dilfers and Brad Johnsons of those eras.  Turns out they were wasting time with Kelly and Tarkenton.

- Speaking of Jim Kelly…sure he was good, but he just must have lacked the championship DNA possessed by Jeff Hostetler and Mark Rypien.

- Without a miracle helmet catch in February 2008, would there be a difference between Eli Manning and Tony Romo?

Now certainly there are a lot of legends among the ranks of Super Bowl Champion quarterbacks, but the point is that none of us knows which quarterbacks can win Super Bowls until they…you know…WIN SUPER BOWLS.

Look, no matter where you fall on the Tebow Issue the point is that he inherited a 1-4 team and now that team is 4-5.  The Broncos right now have as many wins as they did when the 2010 season ended.  This 3-1 swing occurred after the team dealt away its biggest playmaker on offense and benched its most accurate thrower.  All of it makes about as much sense as Stan Humphries, Chris Chandler, Jake Delhomme, and Rex Grossman being 60 minutes away from being forever considered Super Bowl Champion quarterbacks.

When it comes to whether Tebow has what it takes to be a Super Bowl Champion, we’ll all know when we know.  Until then, let’s just see where it goes.

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