It’s a tricky hope to have: Improvement for the AFC West.

Sure, it was great to see the Denver Broncos clinch the division relatively quickly – at least by other division standards – in 2012. There really is nothing finer than seeing Philip Rivers defeated, and the Oakland Raiders continue to look at a future as black as the hole it plays in. And it got sad watching how the Kansas City Chiefs’ season unfolded.

However, division games should push a team. These are usually the most meaningful games played during the regular season simply because  there’s more at stake. Lose to a division opponent and it shows up in your overall record, as well as in parentheses right next to it.

One issue heading into Denver’s divisional round playoff game was the Broncos hadn’t played in an intensely close game in several weeks. When the Broncos couldn’t pull away they looked lost, and then they lost. During the regular season the Baltimore Ravens at times looked lost, even mediocre, in tight games with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Those grinding games ended up paying dividends for Baltimore in not folding to the Broncos.

Wishing for a more competitive AFC West may create problems for the Broncos. The kind of problems that find the team actually losing a game or two to a rival, but, if Denver can manage to haul itself back to the playoffs next season, it will be those games that prepare the team for the intensity that awaits.

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The Denver Broncos get a bit of a scheduling reprieve in 2013.

The Broncos’ 2013 opponents finished the 2012 season with a combined record of 110-146 and .430 overall win percentage, making Denver’s 2013 schedule  the easiest in the league – at least on paper. The Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, have the most difficult schedule in 2013.

Aside from playing their AFC West rivals twice, the Broncos will also play the AFC South, NFC East, along with the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots. The NFL will release the full 2013 schedule in April.

Other Headlines:

• Bleacher Report: Free Agency: The Denver Broncos Should Pursue Baltimore Ravens Safety Ed Reed
• Denver Broncos: Top Five Friday: Special Teams Plays of the Year
• ESPN: 2012 AFC West awards
• NFL Network: Denver Broncos will enter 2013 season with huge expectations
• Predominantly Orange: The Denver Broncos’ Fiscal Discipline
• Pro Football Focus: 2013 Team Needs: Denver Broncos

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Two years ago today, the greatest player in Denver Broncos history accepted rejoined the team in a new capacity.

And the rest, as they say, his history.

The Broncos were coming off a 4-12 season when John Elway was named executive vice president of football operations. In his two seasons as executive, Denver has won the AFC West twice, weathered Tebowmania, and landed arguably the greatest quarterback of all time.

Elway’s fingerprints are all over this team, a true testament to his football managerial savvy. He’s also my choice for Executive of the Year over Indianapolis Colts GM Ryan Grigson.

On this second anniversary of his hiring, let’s look at the business of being John Elway:

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It’s been just more than a month since the Denver Broncos played the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Denver left with a win, but if you remember, the Broncos didn’t look like that dominating team we were expecting to see. In fact, you might say the Chiefs gave Denver its biggest challenge in the past several months.  The Broncos won 17-9 in a game full of…blah.  The offense wasn’t crisp, and struggled to string together solid drives.  The defense wasn’t superb, giving up 148 rushing yards, but did manage to keep the offensive-challenged Chiefs from doing much scoring damage.  Then again, the Chiefs’ offense does a pretty good job of that on its own.

Despite the loss, Kansas City outplayed Denver.  The Chiefs executed while the Broncos sputtered.

In Sunday’s regular-season finale, the AFC West champion Broncos, winners of ten straight, are playing for playoff seeding.  A Broncos’ victory means one of two things:

• Denver is assured a Wild Card weekend bye, and will host a divisional round game (and possibly the AFC championship game) as the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
• Denver is assured a Wild Card weekend bye, and will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs as the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

For the latter to happen, the Houston Texans must lose Sunday at Indianapolis against the Chuck Pagano-led Colts.  It’s rather well documented by now I fully see this happening.

When Kansas City has the ball: I was tempted to just cut and paste my Nov. 25 game preview here, but I won’t.  Still, nothing much has changed.   The Chiefs offense is rooted in its running game, notably Jamaal Charles, who rushed for 107 yards against the Broncos in Week 12.  In fact, Charles is the only back to rush for at least 100 yards during Denver’s 10-game win streak.

The Chiefs running game ranks fifth in the NFL at 153.5 yards a game.   Charles’ 1,456 rushing yards leads the AFC, and he actually has more touchdown runs of 80+ yards this season than Minnesota Vikings star Adrian Peterson – three to two.

The Chiefs bullied the Broncos’ defensive front in Week 12.  Kansas City will need another repeat performance to have any real chance of winning.

When Denver has the ball: The Nov. 25 meeting marked the return to relevance for Knowshon Moreno.  At the time, Broncos fans expected little of Moreno, based largely on his ho-hum young career, and were counting down the days until Willis McGahee returned to game action.

Peyton Manning was given a concussion test in the Broncos’ Week 12 meeting at the Chiefs. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

Moreno has surpassed expectations and continues to impress with his steady, unselfish play, but the Broncos offense will revolve around the passing game – as long as Peyton Manning is at the helm.

The Chiefs defense applied pressure on Manning in the Week 12 game; remember, Manning was even given a concussion test after one particular hit.

In the last meeting, Kansas City effectively cut the game into small pieces, forcing Denver to pick up yardage bits at a time. Despite Kansas City’s abysmal record, the Chiefs defense is certainly of the caliber of the teams Denver will see in the playoffs. The Broncos’ ability to run the ball effectively enough to loosen coverage for the aerial attack will be important. As will scoring points.

The Denver offense produced ten points in the first half the past two weeks, despite looking dominant. If the Broncos can not only continue to engineer drives in the early going, but also cap those drives with touchdowns and points, there could be a chance to get Manning out of the game and not risk another concussion test…one which would be terrible if he failed.

Prediction

Denver 30, Kansas City 9

The Broncos end the regular season with 11 straight wins, a Wild Card weekend bye, and at least one home playoff game.  It’s worth noting the Texans at Colts game is an early kickoff, so while the team may not be “officially” monitoring what’s happening in Indy, something tells me they’ll know the outcome, particularly if it’s a Colts victory, before kicking off from Sports Authority Field.

For those headed out to the game:

• Tailgate Lots open at 8:00 a.m.
• Parking open at 9:00 a.m.
• Mountain Village opens at 10:30 a.m.
• Premium Gates open 11:00 a.m.
• Stadium Gates open at 12:00 p.m.

Other News and Notes:

• Kickoff forecast is 35 degrees and sunny.
• CBS broadcast crew is Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts.
•  Head referee is Ed Hochuli.

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Note: On days following the Denver Broncos game, Denver Horse Force will deliver the headlines midday to include more dissection, breakdown, and of course, the very latest analysis and Denver Broncos news from around the web.

Broncos make a commitment to run game, close out Raiders - Through the shortened week, before the Broncos had arrived in the Bay Area for their Thursday night appearance, quarterback Peyton Manning had predicted the calendar would kick-start Denver’s running game.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Can Broncos run with Knowshon Moreno’s recent redemption to Super Bowl? - Maybe the fact Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno gained 119 yards in a 26-13 victory against Oakland should be no surprise. He has been in a far darker spot than the Black Hole.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Peyton Manning, Broncos’ star power enough to beat Raiders in Oakland - There are times when football is not about the team. It’s about the stars. The guys with the stats and Pro Bowls and awards. The Broncos stars are, in order, Peyton Manning, Von Miller, Demaryius Thomas and Champ Bailey.  With apologies to such solid, contributors such as Joel Dreessen, Zane Beadles, Rahim Moore and Justin Bannan, the four stars were the difference in the Broncos’ fairly easy 26-13 victory Thursday night against their hapless rivals, the Oakland Raiders.  Read more from the Denver Post >>>>

Ground Game Gets It Done - The Broncos had a short week of practice leading up to the Thursday night game — but in the time they had, improvement in the running game was a major point of emphasis.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

At Home on the Road in the AFC West - It’s never easy to win on the road, especially against division rivals, but over the past two years, the Broncos have seemed comfortable doing just that.  Thursday’s win at Oakland completed the road portion of the team’s divisional schedule with the club a perfect 6-0 road record against the Raiders, Chargers and Chiefs over the last two years.  Read more from Denver Broncos >>>>

Broncos not perfect, but sidestep trap - Peyton Manning probably will stew all weekend.  While his team enjoys an early-December Sunday away from football, knowing it put heat on the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots, Manning probably will keep himself up at night thinking about those missed red zone opportunities.  Read more from ESPN >>>>

Peyton Manning, Broncos romp past Oakland Raiders as Denver wins eighth straight, 26-13 - After overwhelming another overmatched division rival, Peyton Manning and the streaking Denver Broncos can turn their attention to much more meaningful opponents.  Manning threw for 310 yards and had his 30th touchdown pass of the season on the game’s opening drive to help the Broncos roll to their eighth straight victory, 26-13 over the Oakland Raiders on Thursday night.  Read more from Associated Press >>>>

Manning keeps Denver rolling - Manning threw interceptions on the Broncos’ first three possessions in a Week 2 loss to Atlanta, then struggled again the next week as Houston won in Denver.  But Manning flipped the switch in Week 4 against Oakland — he completed nearly 80 percent of his passes (30-for-38) and fired three touchdowns in a 37-6 win. Thursday night, he haunted the reeling Raiders again, throwing for 310 yards and a TD as Denver cruised to a 26-13 win.  Read more from SI >>>> 

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Two teams.  Two very opposite directions.

The 9-3 Denver Broncos have clinched the AFC West for the second consecutive year.  The team is also riding a seven-game regular-season win streak, its first since 1998.

Meanwhile in Oakland, the slumping Raiders are 3-9 and losers of five straight, and are eliminated from the playoff race for the 10th straight year.  The record only tells part of the story: The rushing Raiders of recent memory only rank 29th in the league with 82.8 yards a game.  The only steady offensive production has come from quarterback Carson Palmer, but he’s looked flat out terrible at times in 2012.  The Raiders are even worse on defense, ranked 28th overall in the NFL.

But…we know the cliché, and it’s entirely true: Anything can happen, especially in a division game at a hostile stadium…and especially with only a four-day turnaround.

Former Broncos defensive coordinator and current Raiders head coach Dennis Allen is expected to coach Thursday, just two days after the death of his father.

When Oakland has the ball:  The Raiders are battling a whole slew of injuries.  The running back corps has been particularly hard hit; four backs – Mike Goodson, Taiwan Jones, Darren McFadden, and Marcel Reese – were limited participants in practice this week.  All are listed as probable for Thursday.

Palmer is one of seven quarterbacks with more passing yards than Manning, but he has fewer touchdown passes (29 to 20) and more interceptions (13 to 9).  Palmer’s favorite target as of late is tight end Brandon Myers, who had 130 receiving yards in the Raiders’ Week 13 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

The Broncos defense has been burned at times by tight ends heavily involved in the offensive game plan, but don’t expect Denver to surrender too many yards on Thursday night.  Gone are the days of the defense being a liability.  The Broncos allow an average of 308.2 yards a game, which is third best in the NFL.

Von Miller has more sacks than the entire Oakland Raiders defense. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

When Denver has the ball: It took the better part of six quarters, but during the second half of Sunday’s victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Denver Broncos offense finally started to resemble the Denver Broncos offense we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.

And for Broncos fans, Thursday should be more of the same.

The Raiders defense allows 31.3 points a game – worst in the NFL.  You know a unit is bad when it gives up 475 yards to the Browns, including eight passing plays of more than 20 yards.

If Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden can pick apart the Raiders defense, imagine what Manning can do Thursday.  Manning threw for 338 yards in the teams’ 37-6 thumping in Week 4.  It doesn’t help Oakland that three members of the Raiders secondary – safeties Matt Giordano and Mike Mitchell and cornerback Phillip Adams – suffered concussions in the Cleveland game.

As usual, the offensive line must work to keep Manning from getting battered in the box.  Manning wasn’t sacked when Denver hosted Oakland back in late-September.  The Raiders don’t get to the quarterback much.  In fact, Broncos linebacker Von Miller has more sacks (15) than the entire Oakland Raiders (14).

The reality of it all is barring Oakland delivering a revelation of perfect execution, about the only way the Raiders can remain in this game is keeping Denver out of rhythm, and forcing Broncos turnovers.  The Broncos are minus-3 in the turnover differential this season, much worse than the other top teams in the AFC.  New England, Houston, and Baltimore are all plus-13 or better.  Earlier this week, head coach John Fox said cutting down on turnovers is crucial to making a deep playoff run.  On Thursday, turnovers and/or a smattering of Denver penalties are about the only things that can realistically allow Oakland to hang around.  If the Broncos take care of the ball, it shouldn’t be too difficult to take care of the Raiders.

Prediction 

Denver 34, Oakland 17

Not even 44,000 people attended Oakland’s game Sunday against Cleveland – the lowest since 2010 – but expect a bigger turnout Thursday.  It’s an evening game against a division opponent.  It’s been a tough season for Oakland, but humbling the division champs could provide a bright spot for the organization moving forward.

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The Denver Broncos can lock up the AFC West with a win Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Sports Authority at Mile High.

A seven-game regular season win streak would also be the Broncos’ first since 1998 – a season that ended with a second straight Super Bowl victory.

But perhaps even more is also on the line for the Buccaneers, who are fighting for an NFL playoff spot.  In the clichéd ‘If the playoffs started today’ posturing, 6-5 Tampa Bay would lose the second wild-card spot to Seattle because of a tiebreaker.

When Tampa Bay has the ball: Buccaneers rookie Doug Martin is one of only four running backs to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards so far this season.  Martin’s running style, especially near the line of scrimmage, is more shifty than speedy, then cranking up that speed after he breaks free.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman, seen here throwing in training camp, is a scrambler who can extend plays. (courtesy Bryan Austin)

The Broncos gave up 148 rushing yards last week to the Kansas City Chiefs, well over their season average of 98.7 yards per game. The pressure is on Denver’s front seven, in particular the linebackers, to limit Martin’s effectiveness, and if there’s a linebacker up for the challenge, it’s Von Miller.  He’s excelled when directly involved in early-down running situations to the strong side, which has been Martin’s strength.

Quarterback Josh Freeman isn’t afraid to create plays, either.  He has a Ben Roethlisberger-esque quality to extend plays, scrambling outside the pocket to allow his receivers time to create space.  While there’s the downside of ill-advised throws that result in interceptions, the trade off is Freeman’s knack to connect downfield on wild plays.  Maybe Freeman’s biggest upside is his ability to escape sacks; Tampa Bay has only given up 16 sacks this season, particularly impressive given key injuries to the offensive line.

If the Broncos can slow Martin, the onus is squarely on Freeman.  He’s good, but can make mistakes, especially with a major element of the offense – the ground game – slumping.

When Denver has the ball:  Denver’s big worry last week, at least from the fan and pundit perspective, was how the Broncos’ would fare without leading rusher Willis McGahee.  Unlikely game hero Knowshon Moreno provided us with one of the Broncos’ few bright spots in an otherwise inauspicious outing.

Look up, Demaryius. You should have a big day Sunday. (courtesy Jeffrey Beall)

In his first start since Oct. 2011 and first game action this season since Week 2, Moreno tallied 85 rushing yards and 26 receiving yards.  Replicating that rushing performance Sunday is a tall order for Moreno, who could run into trouble against the Buccaneers’ top ranked run defense at 81.5 yards a game.

While the Buccaneers’ defense has enjoyed success against the run, the unit ranks dead last in the NFL against the pass.  In the understatement of the day, that’s great news for Denver; Tampa Bay surrenders 315.5 passing yards a game.  With cornerback Eric Wright suspended and troubled-yet-talented cornerback Aqib Talib recently traded to New England, the team is relying on E.J. Biggers and Leonard Johnson, a tandem with just over 20 starts between them.

Manning could very easily pick apart the young corners.  In fact, he should.  Expect big things from Demaryius Thomas.

Prediction

Denver 28, Tampa Bay 23

Denver enters Sunday’s game 5-2 all-time against Tampa Bay, including winning the teams’ last meeting in 2008.  Add another W to Denver’s column.

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Note: DHF kinda sorta forgot to post this earlier in the week. Oops.  Blame college basketball for distracting me.  Better late than never.  Happy Thanksgiving!

Now that the Denver Broncos’ latest victory has sunken in, here are a few more thoughts and observations on Sunday’s game against San Diego Chargers before we turn the focus to the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Denver Broncos defense is sizzling this season. (personal photo)

Role reversal – Be honest, if someone had told you that ten games into the 2012 season, the most entertaining, dominant dimension of the Denver Broncos would be the team’s defense you probably wouldn’t have believed said soothsayer.  Yet, this Broncos defense is making big plays so regularly it is starting to become exciting to see them get back onto the field.  Peyton Manning throws a touchdown – great, now the defense gets another shot at a turnover.  Broncos stall and punt – no big deal, the defense will either stonewall or take the ball away.  I know the Houston Texans’ J.J. Watt is having a dominant season at a position that often doesn’t impact the game, but at this point linebacker Von Miller has to at least give voters serious pause in the Defensive Player of the Year selection.

Burden of expectation – Can we appreciate how delightfully odd it is that we have a collective feeling the Denver offense is underperforming?  The Broncos again put 30 points on the scoreboard on Sunday, and yet, did it in a way that seemed underwhelming.  The criticism comes from the fact that the Broncos point production wasn’t so much the product of long, sustained drives, but rather the defense and special teams setting the offense up in excellent positions.  It’s a valid critique, and we’d certainly like to see Manning and Company return to those 80-yard onslaughts soon, but hey, you take the field position your teammates give you, and the resulting points.  With this defense, 30 points should be enough to win most any game.

Weak of the week – Or possibly the past few weeks.  The Broncos’ running game remains the most concerning aspect of the team, despite a cumulative performance that went for more than 100 yards against the Chargers.  For comparison sake, remember several weeks ago the talk was how Denver’s crop of linebackers was going to be a liability for this team.  Even before the return of D.J. Williams, that position group evolved into a dynamic unit.  The point is adjustments get made and schemes get adapted.  The absence of Willis McGahee will have an impact on this unit.  There’s still time for Denver to bring its ground game up to snuff, and if Ronnie Hillman, Lance Ball, and maybe Knowshon Moreno make even measured improvements in yardage and ball security, the offense will be hard for anyone to contain.

Deep division - No, the AFC West is not in itself deep, but there appears to be a giant chasm between the Broncos and everyone else.  Remember, Sunday’s game was an all-in, do or die, backs to the wall, playing for jobs affair for San Diego.  The final score showed the Chargers came up a touchdown short, but San Diego delivered a vintage 2011 Broncos performance – absent for three quarters, manic for one.  With all that motivation the Chargers still appeared unable to compete with Denver…and San Diego is the next best team in the division.  This Sunday, Denver can mathematically eliminate the Chiefs from winning the division, and put Oakland on the brink of the same fate…all before December.

Willis McGahee is out for at least eight weeks. (personal photo)

More McGahee – With the news that Willis McGahee is unavailable for the foreseeable future comes a few issues.  Even more than ground production is McGahee’s blocking ability within the offense.  It is crucial the backs called into service understand their roles in the passing game as protecting Peyton is job one.  That said, this may allow Manning and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy to revisit the playbook and develop some new schemes suited to the skill sets of Hillman – and possibly Moreno.  Another tactic could be more two-back sets with tight end Virgil Green (who has lined up lately in the fullback position) or fullback Chris Gronkowski inserted for extra protection which can also be adapted to new passing concepts.  McGahee’s injury is a setback, but one the Broncos can also hopefully turn into an opportunity.

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Von Miller: Good at football. (personal photo)

The NFL has named Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller AFC Defensive Player of the Week.  Miller had three sacks and two forced fumbles in Denver’s Week 11 home win against AFC West rival San Diego Chargers.

This is Miller’s second AFC Defensive Player of the Week honor.  It’s also the third such award for a Broncos defensive player this season; cornerback Tracy Porter won in Week 1 and linebacker Wesley Woodyard won in Week 8.

Miller won Defensive Rookie of the Year last season and is making a case for Defensive Player of the Year in 2012.

So, yeah. Von Miller: Good at football.

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First, the not-so-good news…

As you likely know by now, Denver Broncos running back Willis McGahee is out at least six weeks with an MCL tear and compression fracture.  It doesn’t seem that surgery is required, and there are no plans to place McGahee on IR.  The injury means more playing time for Denver’s other backs – Lance Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and even Knowshon Moreno, who’s been inactive for the past eight games.  (Jeremiah Johnson is on the practice squad and could also get called up.)

Here’s a question: Are people in Denver nicer when the Broncos are winning?

According to a highly unscientific poll by the Denver Post’s Adrian Dater, yes:

You know what’s great about the Broncos’ five-game winning streak and 7-3 record? It’s great because it’s nice to get treated well at the grocery store, or at the bank, or on the highway or anywhere else one goes in Denver these days.

My own little unscientific analysis, since moving to Denver in 1991 from back east, is that when the Broncos are winning, all else is forgiven.

Too bad Dater had the nerve to admit he’s a Patriots fan…

Now back to Sunday’s game…

• Denver Broncos: There are always things to improve on.
• Denver Post: Broncos extend lead in AFC West.

Other Headlines:

• Bleacher Report: Is Von Miller now the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year?
• Denver Post: Speaking of Miller, he’s drawing comparisons to the late Derrick Thomas, but what about Lawrence Taylor?
• Denver Broncos: Don’t forget Elvis Dumervil, who’s making big plays when it counts.

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