Todd, I think red suits you better. (Photo by BubbaFan at the english language wikipedia)

… will probably not be the headline of any newspapers tomorrow. But although it’s terrible wordplay, the sentiment is valid. Just one week after Frazier’s impressive 2 HR performance against the New York Mets, Todd puts those other  NL East-ers away with a walk-off home run in the 9th inning, leading the Reds to their 5th straight victory. Such a thing has not been seen in Cincinnati since May 17, 2011. So… slightly over a year. Notable!

Bronson Arroyo also pitched a great game for the Reds. His last two starts have been fairly lackluster, though his effort against the Yankees was certainly laudable. But tonight, Bronson pitched a very nice 6 2/3 innings – 7 strikeouts, 2 walks, and 1 hit. Dusty also had a nice hook on his starter, and some slightly more flexible bullpen usage, allowing Arredondo to come back for the 8th for a full 1 1/3 inning.

And Chapman comes in a tie game (at home, or I suspect we wouldn’t  see the closer in the 9th with a tie), and gets the win off of Frazier’s home run. That’s 4 wins for Chapman so far this year. That’s second on the team. SECOND. No one on the Reds has more wins than Chapman other than Johnny “1.97 ERA” Cueto. That’s crazy. On the other hand, he probably won’t be coming in to quite as many tie games now that he’s the closer, so he won’t get a chance to set any wins records.

Whoo. That was a good one, especially for the Reds player development department. Mike Leake (1st round, 2009) did a great job to quiet the newly vocal Mike-Leake-skeptics. Much like a Homer Bailey start, Leake wasn’t exactly ‘dominant’, but he allowed only 1 ER (out of 3 R) in 6 innings, and though he allowed 7 hits, only one of them was for extra bases – a double by Ike Davis. And that was more of a lucky shot, just down the first base line, but hit hard enough to get over into the corner. In fact, here’s a chart of where all the Mets’ balls in play fell – and none of them got much of anywhere – Leake certainly didn’t need the capacious Citi Field to help him keep it in the park tonight.

On the offensive end, Leake himself was 2-2 with a sac bunt. Perhaps Dusty should consider hitting him leadoff? His .603 OPS in his 139 career plate appearances  is pretty impressive. Todd Frazier(1st round, 2007)  did a lot of the rest of the work, driving in 3 of the Reds’ 6 runs, via two home runs – one of which was to straight center field, which, in Citi, is a ways out there, and the other of which mysteriously made its way past Lucas Duda at the right field wall.

But let’s not forget the contributions of  Zack Cozart (2nd Round, 2007), 1 for 5 with a double, Jay Bruce (1st round, 2005), who hit a pinch hit go ahead sac-fly RBI in the seventh inning before Frazier added the go ahead runs, and Drew Stubbs (1st round, 2006) was 2 for 5. Of course, we can never overlook Joey Vott0, who was 1 for 3 with a walk and a double, which just adds to his lead in both categories for all of baseball. 17 doubles with 36 games played roughly projects (haha, yes, yes) to 76 doubles for the season, which would, as unrealistic as it is to project these things, would  blow away the current single season record of 67, set in 1931. The modern record, held by Todd Helton in 2000, is slightly more achievable at 59.

Latos K'd 11, the Reds scored 5 runs. 11 times 5 = 55. Brilliant!(Image from BaseballBacks on Flickr)

Today was a pretty good game, all-in-all:

• It was a win
• It won us the series, which means it’s the fifth straight series we’ve either won or tied.
• It put us back above .500
• It was a shutout
• Latos struck out 11. While I was interested to find out that this doesn’t really measure on any record board for the Reds no matter the time period, it’s still impressive. I think only Cueto and Harang are very recent Reds pitchers to match or exceed that number
• The bullpen was badass. Hoover, Chapman and Simon combined for three scoreless innings with six Ks, no walks, and one hit. Our bullpen is awesome
• Stubbs proved me wrong (and we all know that deflating my ego can only be good for me) by being awesome – going 3-4, with a home run.
• Todd Frazier was also awesome – hopefully awesome enough to keep him on the roster.
• Jay Bruce extending his hitting streak. Wheeee!

Pretty much everything you could want, if you don’t count a couple of sketchy defensive plays. Still. Today was a good day.

Today, Fay reported that Dusty is not firm on Mike Leake’s position in the rotation. As Redleg Nation (almost immediately) pointed out, this is at least a 90 degree turn around from the tune he was singing a few days ago: namely, that Leake had been a good starter the last two years, thus there was no reason to think he wouldn’t be in the rotation. So, as far as I can tell, the Reds have gone from 2-3 candidates for 1 spot to 3-4 candidates for 2 rotation spots. I’m not sure what this  turnaround is based on: Leake hasn’t been great in spring training, but a lot of people aren’t. And certainly in terms of last year’s performance, everyone not named Cueto was worse than Leake, and Arroyo, whose rotation spot is, apparently, guaranteed was much worse. Now, I’m not saying there aren’t reasons to believe that Arroyo won’t be better, or that Leake won’t be worse, but you could say the same vice-versa.

RLN also points out the (very popular) hypothesis that they’re planning on sending Leake (who is the only rotation candidate with options left) to Louisville to have an extra hitter’s spot until April 11th, which will be the first time that the reds will need a fifth starter. This, the reasoning goes, will give the Reds more time to decide on the bench questions, such as Frazier vs. Francisco. Everyone recognizes that this is extremely hypothetical, but, hypothetically speaking, I think this is a silly idea. Hypothetically.

The Reds did this two years ago, in the opening of the 2010 season. Similarly, having one day off, caused the Reds to send Leake to AAA for a start, keeping Francisco on the roster for five extra games. Incidentally, that Harang-Cueto-Arroyo-Bailey-Harang rotation, with Juan Francisco in the lineup, went 2-3, and Francisco contributed 1 hit in 6 AB, and struck out four times. It’s only one day! one extra game! If we didn’t have an off-day, the schedule would only be 1 day different, and I don’t think this would even be a question.

I mean, if the Reds really think that Mike Leake needs to pitch a real game on his rotation day down in Louisville, I guess that’s fine. I mean, whatever. But I really, really, hope that we’re not just going to sit on a Francisco/Frazier decision until we’ve seen like seven MLB plate appearances between the two of them. We aren’t going to learn anything new.

Perhaps this is just me being frustrated with all the unresolved questions still remaining. We only have a couple more games in ST left. I know it’s probably not that important, but I’m not excessively pleased with knowing less information as time goes on.

Heeeee's safe(ly not going to Philadelphia. Prolly.)(Photo: Hot Flash Photography/flickr)

Although nothing like a credible source appears to have reported it, Brandon Phillips to the Phillies for Cole Hamels has been the latest ‘thing’ to go around the Cincinnati Reds’ corner of the internet. I think it started as a twitter rumor, and for what it’s worth, it popped up as the first question in yesterday’s mlb trade rumors chat. Ben Nicholson-Smith thereof says nay, in case you were wondering. But it’s more fun for me to pretend I don’t know there’s essentially nothing to it.

I’m not really sure it’s that great a deal for the Reds anyway. While I do think that Hamels is the more valuable player at the end of the day, Brandon Phillips makes quite a case for himself by playing good defense and being an everyday position player. I mean, if you look at WAR (you know, for funsies) for the last two years, BP has been the better player (2011: 6.0 to 4.9, 2010 4.4 to 3.7). While Phillips is two years older, Hamels is a pitcher, which also makes him a little more risky.

Both will be free agents after this year. Hamels makes $15 million to BP’s 12. But I think the biggest reason for this deal not to happen on our side (not to mention how ludicrous the Phillies might find it), is replacement level at each of those position. Although our #5 pitcher this season probably won’t be that good, we’ve helped re-establish depth there with guys like Francis (assuming he stays) and Zavada, and I don’t think we’re looking far below league average for a number five guy. Second base on the other hand, is way sketchier. We’ve got a couple guys who can probably field it, but won’t hit a bit. Todd Frazier’s bat may be resurging, but we tried him at second, and I really don’t think his defense will well there at all.

Well, in the extremely extremely unlikely chance that this is a plausbible rumor, and the trade comes into being, at least I’ve already formed an opinion on it.

Ok, which one of you idiots linked Francisco to 'This Is Why You're Fat"?

Going into Spring Training, I would have said that Juan Francisco was definitely edging out Todd Frazier on the depth charts for emergency third-baseman, additional utility infielder, and my alphabetical list of favorite players whose names sound a little bit like mine. But then he showed up to camp overweight, in relation to AND in addition to injuring himself in the Dominican League and failing to tell anyone in the Reds organization about it.  And Dusty wasn’t happy about it. As Marty Brennaman noted on the broadcast a few days ago, Dusty’s mostly a player-apologist (unlike you, Mr. Brennaman), so you know he’s REALLY pissed. On the other hand, I think Dusty’s apologizing ways may just be part of his management strategy – if you’re a player, it may help you a little psychologically to know that if you have a bad game, your manager isn’t going to go out and tell the press how much you suck. But at this point, it seems like Francisco may need the kick in the pants that sometimes only a public shaming can give.

Personally, I’ve always favored Frazier – perhaps because as a young lass, I once cornered a newly drafted Todd Frazier outside the Dragons team bus to request an autograph, giggling incessantly while my friends flirted with the other ballplayers and rolled their eyes at me.  He handled it well.

Frazier and Francisco are of a similar age, and both started as shortstops, but their histories in the Reds organization are very different. Francisco signed as an amateur free agent back in 2006, and was converted to third base almost immediately. Frazier was drafted as a college graduate in 2007. We kept him at short for awhile, but then started juggling him around, trying to find a place where his bat would play – LF, 3B, 2B, 1B, this man has played a bit of everything. Unfortunately, I think this may have derailed his hitting progress a bit, as Frazier’s hitting has been a bit lackluster these last two years. He’s still got some patience, that would be a welcome addition to the lineup, but an Age 25.800 AAA hitter isn’t going to get anyone very excited.

In just a few spring training games though, Todd Frazier has picked a pretty good time to hit well. Although he’s got one less hit than Francisco, he’s been hitting them hard, with two doubles and two homeruns, with a couple of walks thrown in, to boot. He’s had twice as many innings as Francisco, who hasn’t helped his case by making an error.

Of course, spring training stats don’t matter much – and performances later this month are probably going to count for a lot more than what happens this first week. And no matter how well either player hits, it may be that neither player earns an MLB spot (at least not for more than the week long “no fifth starter” stint that Francisco got last April). Assuming that we’re taking a back up C, a back up SS, Cairo as utility infielder, and Heisey/Ludwick, the Reds probably don’t have much use for a guy who can play third base and a little left field. Even so, this is Frazier’s chance to work his way up the depth chart: if he can seize it.

We’ve hit another landmark day in the timeline of real baseball returning to us. Today, we started real spring training games. Yup. “Real” spring training games. They don’t really matter. And they’re not like real games. But they are vaguely like an actual baseball game. And they’re back!

So am I, incidentally. Sorry for the break, but I was taking the bar on Wednesday and Thursday, and yesterday I was, ah, recovering, from the soju I drank on Thursday night. But yeah! I’m back!

Today we played game one of the Goodyear Cup against longtime our Goodyear Nemeses – the Cleveland Indians. On the pitching side, Leake started and pitched two innings, after which, most of our menagerie of bullpen hopefuls took on an inning each. Mahay and Texeira probably didn’t help their cases today, but at this point in the year, it probably doesn’t matter. Apparently today was not a day for taking walks, though, as there was only one walk between both teams. I guess hitters are still trying to get their swing back; getting on base isn’t that important right now.

On the offensive side, Todd Frazier had a nice 9th inning home run, Stubbs and Rolen had two hits apiece, and Stubbs had a double as well. Poor Paul Janish probably didn’t impress too much – he did get a hit, but he missed a popup, and then had fielding error right after that. If the defense looks bad, there’s definitely no reason to have him on the bench.

ALERT: For us out of market folks with MLB Network, Tuesday (March 6) is a big day, as the game against the Indians will be playing at 6 AM (SIX AM!), so set your alarms, or Tivos, or DVD-rs, or whatever you kids are setting these days. Then, at 5 PM, MLBN’s 30 clubs and 30 days is doing the Reds. I mean, it may mean we have to hear more from Greg Amsinger, but we might also get some awesome footage.

IT'S SPRING, OH THANK GOD IT'S SPRING. (Photo by me!)

It’s that time of year. Finally, finally, finally. Along with hope, happiness, sun, baseball, green grass, beauty, love, and all things good and holy in this world, the beginning of spring training always brings a certain kind of story. I love these stories, incidentally, and we have them in no small quantity this spring.

First, “the rebound”: 

When something goes wrong, the first thing we want to hear next year is that things are going to be better. Thus, we’re all veeeeeerry happy to hear that Cozart feels much better after his season ending ACL surgery. Plus, John Fay also tells us that Bronson “My life would suck less without GABP” Arroyo thinks his velocity is back. Now, while it’s easy to say that Bronson had a rough season last year, it’s hard to say whether it was a velocity issue, a mono issue, a back-pain issue, or a being baseball old issue. Or maybe a little of each. Or maybe some of them caused each other. In any case, at this point, we know two things: it’s good that Arroyo’s saying his velocity is back, and he’s going to say that at the beginning of spring training no matter what.

Next, “the early bird”:

Baseball players get half the year “off”, to make a lot of money, so even though it’s probably only minorly relevant, we really love to see them show up for Spring Training before they need to. Although Bruce appears to be the big-news position player already in camp, Ryan Ludwick, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco, Paul Janish and Wilson Valdez are also already in Goodyear, AZ. If anyone’s counting, these are the guys who are looking to claim a bigger share of playing time out the gate, or maybe just avoid being sent to Louisville for the season, by trying to prove their dedication to the higher ups, or just get a head start. Or, in most of these cases, not fall behind the competition. At least I know if I’m Paul Janish, I don’t want to show up to camp a millisecond past Cozart and Valdez.

Last (for now) “best shape of his life”:

Although that exact phrase has become so used it’s a bit passe, and rare in literal interviews, there’s still always a guy who has decided to get in shape instead of chilling on the couch and watching a lot of M*A*S*H reruns. This year, it’s Mr. Jay Bruce, who, as has been previously referenced on this blog, has decided to slim down and muscle up. And how. Bruce says he only lost about 15 pounds, but considering this guy is listed at 6’3″, I’m guessing that’s minus fat, and plus muscle mass: and he wasn’t exactly fat, fat to begin with. And Homer Bailey’s put on about the same amount of weight. This is apparently something the Reds have asked him to do before. Hopefully he’s looking a little more Batman-Christian-Bale and a little less El-Machinista-Christian Bale. I mean, something about his shoulder injury. Yeah, uhhhh, that’s the important thing.