Photo by Keith Allison/Flickr

Incidentally, I still hate the Cardinals, of course, but at this point it’s pretty much for the fun of it. Tony LaRussa is gone. Chris Carpenter is (sorta?) gone. Other jerks are gone. The dichotomy of terrible fans who call themselves the best fans in baseball and mediocre/good fans who pretend those other fans don’t exist and insist that no Cardinals fans actually refer to the BFIB title while subtly (or not so subtly) implying that they are indeed better than other teams’ fans …. that is still tiring. But in the scheme of shitty fanbase drama, it’s really not remarkable. I’m probably way worse, objectively, just complaining about it as much as I do.

But still. The Cardinals are stupid and dumb, because it’s fun to say so. Losing to the Cardinals? Doubly stupid and trebly dumb. That’s why it was no nice to not lose yesterday. Losing today was not so good, especially when things went off the rails so suddenly, and then slowly slipped beyond saving. But here at C-ing Red, we actually don’t like scapegoats and sadness and talking about how the Reds weren’t good.

• Bronson Arroyo’s 5 inning of perfect baseball – I mean, yeah, it would’ve been better if it were, say, 9 innings of perfect baseball, but you take what you can get. Arroyo’s eventual 6 IP and 4 runs allowed is not ideal by any means, but Bronson’s not as young as you used to be, and you’ve gotta take what you can get. A little excitement in innings 4 and 5? Hey, why not.

• JJ Hoover didn’t pitch today. Get that kid some rest. Dang. Really, we only used Parra out of the bullpen, so that gives as good a chance as any in tomorrow’s rubber match – featuring Jake Westbrook and Homer Bailey.

• Joey Votto got on base. That extends his streak to 8 games – which is, incidentally, all of the games we’ve played. The remarkable thing is that Shin Soo Choo also got on base today, which matches Joey (on-base streaks don’t cross seasons). 8 games is not that remarkable – Joey’s had much longer streaks, obviously, but it’s kinda cool to have two guys to start off the season. The Reds offense has been pretty consistent from that point of view – Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier each have gotten hits in 6 out of the Reds 8 total games.

• 5-3 is really pretty good. And more than that, playing the Cardinals definitely feels like just playing another team, this year- I don’t think there’s any (or very much) emotional baggage tied to the Cards series at this point.  I’m glad if we win and sad if we lose (Because, as stated early, the Cardinals are stupid and dumb), but that’s all there is to it.

(Photo by Keith Allison/flickr)

The full NL MVP voting results included a number of Reds players (down the ballot), starting with Jay Bruce who came in at #10, followed by Aroldis Chapman (12th), Brandon Phillips (13th), Joey Votto(14th), and Johnny Cueto (30th). This brings up the question of who was the Reds most valuable player this season. Among hitters, I think it’s Joey Votto, and I don’t think it’s close.

Now, there are a lot of arguments for why it shouldn’t be Votto. Joey missed a lot of time with his leg injury, and even after he came back, he clearly wasn’t at full strength in terms of power. Even so, Votto’s first three months were so impressive, I think the not-actually-existing honor of being the best Reds position player this year still belongs to him. This year, Votto (again) excelled at both offense and defense. According to fangraphs, Votto was worth 46 runs just with his bat. That’s well over twice what the second guy has, and that does account for Joey’s limited playing time (of course, Ludwick, who comes in with 21 runs, also suffers from his lowered playing time early in the season). If you like WAR (and we now know that the AL MVP voters don’t), Joey still edges out the next best guy by almost 2 whole wins.

There is a certain feeling though, that the Reds went on their hottest streak when Joey was out, so he couldn’t have been that valuable. I think a lot of people feel that the hitters that stepped up during Votto’s absence were more important to the team, including by turns Todd Frazier and Ryan Ludwick among others. But let me show you something.

This takes a bit of explanation – but I divided the season into 16 chronological segments (with a half segment at the end). The number of games in each segment varies between 9 and 11, because I based it on 2 Cueto starts each (because I intend to apply this to pitchers in a later segment). I then added up the wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average: basically how many runs your bat produced)  for each batter for each segment. Here’s how it looks:

Now, these segments are arbitrary, so it’s not that useful to make detailed arguments based on these numbers,but the overall picture is clear. While you can see that a variety of different players improved during different parts of Votto’s absence (and Ludwick and Frazier are certainly the most consistent of them), what’s way more obvious is the way Votto carried the team in the month and a half before his injury.

Look at that black line! For four segments (~40 games), Votto is producing about as many runs as the rest of the lineup put together. If you want to look at one man who is carrying the team over a period of time, it is obviously Joey who kept the Reds in the race in the first half. In late June, the Reds were approximately 7-8 games over .500, and led the NL Central by one game. Without Joey, we’re not there.

P.S. I’ve included the definition of the segments and the numbers version of the graph, with the most valuable hitter for the segment after the cut.

» Continue reading “2012 Most Valuable Reds Hitter: Just Who Carried Who?”

The C-ing Red puppy is very proud of the 2012 Reds, and he’s especially impressed with how great the rotation was. It’s not easy to pitch so well in this ballpark, woof!

It’s been a rough few days, Reds fans. The historical catastrophe of the National League Division Series we lost on Thursday night is not something that can be erased from our memories in a few hours. Most of us are still pretty deep in mourning, realigning mostly into camps based on whether they won’t watch the rest of the post-season, have some attachment to the Tigers/Yankees, or can forgive the Giants enough for beating us to hope they beat the Cardinals, and maybe even win it all. Even though there has been some terrible, terrible things that have happened to the 2012 Reds in the last week, there are some amazing things that happened to the 2012 Reds, and I think now’s a perfect time to be reminded of those things.

Most of these are short notes, and I’ll probably cover some of them in more detail as the off-season crawls on, but for now, I just want to remember how good things were for Reds fans this summer.

10. 10,000 Reds win - This was well covered back in April, even here, but the Cincinnati Reds franchise, at least counting the eligible years as baseball-reference and official MLB stats do, won their 10,000th game this year. Unfortunately, there’s no awesome prize for the franchise that wins 10^4 games over a century or so, but it’s a cool marker and our 10,091 wins put us 6th among all the teams. It’s just another fantastic reminder that this is a great team with a proud franchise history.

9. Ryan Ludwick’s 500th RBI – This isn’t so much exciting in and of itself, but more of a symbol of the Ryan Ludwick that we got, as opposed to the Ryan Ludwick some fans worried we might get. For what it’s worth, Ludwick’s 530 total RBI sneaks him into the top 1000 career RBI-attainers. Ludwick seems like a great guy, a good clubhouse influence, and a solid bat now, but back in March, only a small percentage of fans were really excited about him. That’s not for terrible reasons. Ludwick’s put together some excellent seasons since his first at-bat for the Texas Rangers in 2002, but they’ve been spliced in-between a lot of mediocre performances, and some time in San Diego where he seemed outright bad. Now, Walt’s faith in Ludwick dating back to Ryan’s Cardinal days appears very well-founded indeed. He was one of many important cogs that got the Reds into the post-season, but it’s still fair to say that without Ludwick, the Reds do not fare very well in 2012.

8. We have an actual starting shortstop - Hooray for Zack Cozart. Now, while Cozy had a hot start that he eventually couldn’t live up to, he accomplished with his glove what he couldn’t with his bat. Overall, his offensive numbers are not what you might wish, but Cozart never really profiled as a slugging type shortstop anyway. I think we all have hopes that he can his improve his hitting numbers to a more healthy, say 90-ish OPS+, but his defensive numbers, though a small sample size, give him a lot of value.  His 131 games started at shortstop is the most by a Red since Felipe Lopez in 2006.

7. Brandon Phillips’ Bazillionth Web Gem – So, this one might not be totally technical. But though it’s hard to find a milestone for BP’s defensive prowess, his ability in the field is undeniable. Brandon is a great defensive constant in our infield, and it really makes him worth every penny. There are some (jealous, bitter, haters, obvy) who think that his flashy plays are not particularly well-correlated to actual defensive values. While this may be true to some extent, those people suck, Brandon is an excellent defender, both in true value and being an exciting player to watch. People want to watch him play second, and pitchers want him playing behind them. What else can you say?

6. Healthiest rotation ever – The 2012 Cincinnati Reds had five starting pitchers who started 161 games this season. Todd Redmond started one game, and that’s only because of a double-header situation. The rotation that opened the season went on to pitch 99.4% of all starts in the season. I’m sure I’ll write more on this later, but I’ve gone back 30 years, and no Reds rotation has come close to 2012′s reliability.

5. Todd Frazier ROY - I think, now Harper is the front runner for the Rookie of the Year award among all hitters, and probably deservedly so. Frazier’s bat was just a little bit better, and Harper played better defense at a more important position. He’s also younger, which is probably at least a little bit relevant. Still, though Frazier’s had his struggles in the Reds system, he came up this year and put up a great first season, while producing enough material for 10 verses of the Ballad of Todd Frazier. I’m really looking forward to see him as the Reds regular Third Baseman in the future.

4. Johnny Cueto dodges DIPS regression again - While Cueto, like Frazier probably won’t merit an end-of-the-year award, Cueto was fantastic this year. Though just one of many pitchers whose WAR somewhat understates what seems to be a repeated ability to prevent runs from being scored, Cueto is one of the best. This season finally puts to rest most of the troubling ‘regression’ theories when it comes to Cueto. He’s one of the best pitchers in the NL, and people know it now.

3. The rise of Aroldis Chapman - Chapman’s been making waves since he first arrived in the US, but he’s made great strides as a pitcher this season. This success may put the final nail in the coffin of Chapman’s starting career, but it’s hard to complain. His K/9 on the season is over 15, and his BB/9 has shrunk to a more than respectable 2.89. He’s excellent against righties with a .501 OPS against, but lefties might as well just give up before they get to the plate.

2. Homer Bailey no-hitter - This hardly needs any more comment, since it happened so recently. Homer Bailey is going to be a good pitcher. That wasn’t always clear, but it’s pretty obvious now. Of course, nothing in baseball-future is ever guaranteed, but no matter what, no one can take the no-hitter away from him.

1. Reds win a playoff game - It’s easy to remember the really shitty part of the NLDS, but let’s not forget the great parts. We went out to San Francisco and got a great pair of wins away from home. Those two wins are our first since the 1995 NLDS against the Dodgers, so it’s always good to end a 17 year playoff win drought. We’ve gone to the playoffs twice in three years now, and we’ve improved. So, in 2014, we can expect to go to the NLCS, and we’ll probably win the World Series in 2022.

All in all, I’d say it was a pretty excellent year.

Turner as a Lakeland, FL Tiger (Photo by lakelandlocal/Flickr)

And like the Reds, I struggled tonight as well, though obviously more in the writing-a-clever-headline  department.

Jacob Turner is a former Tigers top prospect, so I was eager to see the young gun tonight. Apparently, I should not have been so eager, as the 21-year old right-hander shut the Reds down. Turner allowed only two hits in his 7 total innings, relying heavily on his defense to do so, as he struck out only 3 and walked only 2. Although Turner doesn’t throw exceptionally fast, he had his cutter and curve working, and the Reds lineup has always seemed vulnerable to unfamiliar pitchers.

Of course, to correspond, the Reds hitters almost all had terrible nights – 6 of the Reds 8 starters had 0-fers, though Ryan Ludwick’s came with two walks, and Todd Frazier had a double and a walk, the Reds best hitter of the night by default. On the other side, Arroyo was obviously not sharp, but he probably wasn’t as bad as the numbers look. He had decent K/BB stats – and almost all of the balls that went into the outfield fell in for hits – especially the ones in left and center field.

The Cardinals have yet to win or lose tonight against the Dodgers, so, for now, the magic number remains at 8.

(Photo by Keith Allison/Flickr)

Or, “The Search For Frazier’s Playing Time”

Today marked the first day of Joey Votto’s return to the Reds lineup. It was like Christmas, Chanukkah, Festivus, and Ramadan all rolled into one. As expected, he was fantastic, though the outcome of the game was not so great. A lot of angst has been put into the the fate of Todd Frazier, with good reason. Since Votto’s injury, Frazier has slotted in most often at first base, while Rolen has gone back to manning third almost full time.

Both before and after the injury, Frazier has been excellent, which has been highlighted by the fact that his playing time nearly doubled after the Votto Injury Watershed. Here’s a look at the offense, before and after 7/15, which was the last game (before today) that Joey Votto appeared in.

That really highlights how important Todd Frazier become to the Reds, as the player with the most plate appearances, after Joey went on the DL.  Unfortunately, the numbers demonstrate how difficult it’s going to be to get Frazier on the lineup as much he deserves in the next month. Thought Frazier started in the Reds system as a shortstop, right now, it looks like he can essentially be trusted to play first, third, and maybe a little left field. However, we’ve got Mr. MVP back at first base now, and both Rolen(.894) and Ludwick (1.051)  have hit very well with Joey out.

Obviously, I think that Frazier should take on more of the starts at third base. We won’t get much improvement over the last 30 games from that, as Rolen has hit so well in Joey’s absence – but it will probably be beneficial going forward, as Rolen may be wearing down at the end of the season. (Though I’m pretty confident that Dusty won’t sit Rolen as often as I would. Meh, c’est la vie.) Slotting Frazier in at first is probably also a good idea, as Joey certainly doesn’t need to be playing seven games a week, straight from coming off injury.  It’s tempting to throw Frazier into left – but 1) Ludwick is hitting well, and 2) considering defense, Heisey is probably the better sub.

It’s frustrating that we can’t shift Frazier to take on some of the weaker spots in the lineup, but unless he’s learned to catch, or play center field, our options may be limited. It’s also a shame to think that the return of Votto is only going to provide marginal improvement to our offense. I mean, Joey is the god-king-emperor of all creation and all, but his return would be more dramatic if Votto was going to essentially replace 5 Miguel Cairo plate appearances every game.

The good news: Todd Frazier’s rookie of the year season proceeds apace. (Photo by BubbaFan at the english language wikipedia)

That sucked.

Things were lovely for the first five innings. Before the 6th, things were going reasonably well for the Redlegs, who were winning 5-2 based on strong hitting, and reasonably good pitching from Latos.

The sixth inning is where everything became terrible. Latos let the first two batters on base via singles – and then allowed two consecutive home runs from Allen Craig and Reds fan favorite Yadier Molina. After Latos walked the next batter (all with no outs), we brought in Alfredo Simon, who then allowed a series of hits/wild pitches/sac flies which allowed a total of 6 runs to score in the inning. (Alfredo semi-redeemed himself by pitching two more scoreless innings.

The offense did alright, really, chasing Lance Lynn in the third inning with good performances from Frazier (per usual), Phillips, and even Rolen. But there were plenty of strikeouts. We threatened in the bottom of the 9th against closer Jason Motte – Ludwick and Frazier got on with singles, but Rolen struck out for the third out.

Even so, as a whole, this loss is more on Latos than anyone. It’s really been awhile since Mat Latos has been so outright bad. I’m not getting on his case, he’s had a really great last couple of months, but tonight was bad.Nights like this are bound to happen I guess – we’ve still got a six game lead, and as long as we can win one game this series, we’ll stay five games up.

So… how’s Joey Votto doing, again?

This graphic (supposedly) represents the Reds defense in 2011. (The plays and balls in zone numbers are really basic numbers available from fangraphs. The playing time percentages are based on innings played.) That 2011 team sucked, but the defense was highly rated – ranking 2nd in overall UZR in the NL, and 4th in fielding percentage. We also topped the NL, and were second only to Tampa Bay in MLB, in defensive efficiency rating – the most basic rating of how many balls in play get fielded.

Fast forward to 2012, and it’s suddenly no longer the case. Hal McCoy and Dusty have commented on it recently: but mostly in terms of a error-licious Cubs series. But it’s more than just that. We’re actually still 4th in fielding percentage. But our team total UZR and DER have dropped to almost exactly league average. Here’s what the same graph looks like for this season:

» Continue reading “Why Is The Reds Defense So Much Worse In 2012?”

(photo by dbking/Flickr)

Mike Leake’s had a  relatively tough season. With a 94 ERA+, Reds fans ought not to have many complaints, but his ERA is higher than in 2011, which in turn, was higher than his rookie season ERA. That’s probably got to be a little frustrating. So far in 2012, Mike Leake has had the worst ERA of all Reds starters, and it’s mostly been a matter of consistency. Leake’s thrown a handful of gems, but he’s also run into a few problem games.

Tonight, though, was a gem. Even a quality bullpen like ours can use a night off, so just by itself, Leake’s complete game was appreciated. He also held the Mets to a single run on four hits. Only two of the Mets starters got any hits at all – but they did so in the same inning, allowing a run to be scored on a Daniel Murphy double play ball. Leake also didn’t walk anyone, and also allowed no extra base hits – which is promising, as Leake’s SLG against is the highest among all Reds pitchers, by a fair margin.

The offense took its sweet time in getting to R.A. Dickey, but they did, lighting the knuckeballer up with 5 runs, including three home runs. I sort of wonder if the expansive confines at Citi are helping to hide Dickey’s flaws. On the other hand, you could equally argue that the Reds impressive infield defense hides Cueto’s flaws.  Todd Frazier, in particular, hit a monster shot right after Scott Rolen’s home run, that was estimated at 474 feet.

In any case, I can’t help be a bit pleased that the Reds have helped drive up Dickey’s ERA and denied him the win. I’m quite fond of R.A. (love me some trick pitchers), but all’s fair in Cy Young Awards. On the other hand, the Reds also struck out 9 times, which helps pads Mr. Dickey’s strikeout totals. Darn it.

Ryan Ludwick, sigh, star of the game. Photo by SD Dirk/Flickr

Tonight, the Reds eked out a close one, narrowly avoiding what might’ve been their first consecutive loss in two weeks. Johnny Cueto got off to a good start, but ended up allowing three runs after getting two outs in the 8th inning.

Of course, he had help from Logan Ondrusek, who allowed a three-run home run immediately upon entering the game. Not Ondrusexy’s best work, but I’m not worried – Ondrusek just needs to be solid right-handed set-up man, and we already know he’s the third best reliever in the pen. Those guys give up runs. Thankfully, we had Marshall and Chapman to get the rest of the last five outs.

Chapman continued his closination domination – in the 9th inning, he struck out two, and got through the inning on 9 pitches total. He probably needed to throw a bullpen session after the game just to get his work in. Crazy.

It was, after all, a good thing that we scored one more run in this game than we allowed in that disastrous 8th inning. (Begrudging props to Ryan Ludwick!) This game also featured Todd Frazier’s first career stolen base. Hooray Todd Frazier!

This is an artist's rendition of what happened earlier today.

So the news from Pittsburgh is that Todd Frazier saved a man’s life today by performing the Heimlich maneuver while eating at a restaurant with Ryan Ludwick today. Apparently, Ludwick deferred to Frazier as EMT because he respected Frazier’s superior proximity to the choker. (“Lawl”)

He then followed this up with a great game tonight, reaching base three times, with a double and a triple. In fact, Todd Frazier already has three triples, which is cool, because he does not look like a fast guy. He’s raised his line to .269/.309/.579. Naaaawwwwwwwt baaaaaad.

But let’s get back to the important cool stuff. Todd Frazier just up and saved a dude! Ok, it’s maybe not as cool as when Roy Halladay saved some guy from like a crazy snake monster, but this is way more accessible. I mean, we don’t all get to go to the Amazon to go hunt crocodiles or whatever. We do all eat in restaurants, or at least we do when we’re not broke, or our parents are in town. I’m occasionally concerned that something like this will happen to me, as I am very short, have little extra body strength, and am only like, 65% sure how the Heimlich maneuver even works.

But Frazier was in that position and performed admirably. Now if he could just teach Ryan Ludwick how to hit.