(Photo by Chris Staley/Flickr)

Though the Reds and Ludwick have been exchanging numbers for a few days now, Jon Heyman of ESPN first reported on Friday night that they had signed an official deal, and that it was worth $15 million over two years this morning, with an option year (Fay reports that it’s done pending a physical on Monday). Having Ludwick firmly in the fold solidifies the Reds plans for 2013, and for a pretty reasonable rate, at that.

I admit that last year, I was none too excited about the prospect of Ryan Ludwick, but he made me eat crow, becoming an important part of the lineup. His .373 wOBA says he was the second best hitter on the team – and the best right-handed batter. His defense, of course, is probably sub-par, but we easily got far more value from Ryan Ludwick that we paid him in salary, with the 2.8 WAR he put up. If he can keep up that performance level, it’s definitely a great deal for the Reds, but that’s still a big if.

Yes, I’ve turned around on Ryan Ludwick, but that doesn’t mean I’m not concerned about what he’ll do next year. It’s hard to read a player history like Ludwick’s. He’s had one really spectacular year. He’s had decent years. He’s had terrible years. He may have really suffered from playing in pitcher-friendly PetCo Park. Certainly, he’s unlikely to significantly improve on his 2012 season; 2012 was his second best season ever, and he’s not quite as young as he used to be.

The Bill James projection, for example,  is not kind to Ludwick. But it’s no surprise that projection systems don’t like a 35 year old outfielder with some pretty rough years between 2009 and 2011.

On the other hand, I think there are some positive signs for Ludwick a season like 2012, or at least kind of close to it. He was even better than his season numbers when he started regularly in June, July, and August. He had an average BABIP at .299, so he probably wasn’t ‘just’ lucky – and that BABIP is in the range of his historical norms. His BB and K rates were also very similar to what he’s done in the past. Where he really excelled compared to every other year of his career that wasn’t 2008 was when it came to slugging. His 26 homers were the second most on the Reds, and the second most in his career. But that’s very easily explained by the fact that he’s now in the most homer-friendly park of his career.

You can look at the map of his home run landing spots with an overlay of GABP’s dimensions here. On one level, Ryan’s clearly benefitting from hitting at GAPB. On the other hand, our ballpark isn’t going anywhere. Plus, Ryan still had 9 ‘no doubter’ homers – good for 5th best in the NL. He also hit the longest home run in Great American in 2012  - this beauty at 469 ft true distance. This all gives me a feeling that Ludwick can definitely kinda-maybe-almost maintain his 2012 power levels in 2013.

Then, you add in the clubhouse chemistry factor. I’ve always been skeptical on the value of chemistry for a single player, over, say being good at hitting and fielding, but as far as the intangibles go – I think Ludwick’s got a lot of value there, comparatively, at least. So, overall, the Reds probably have a pretty dang good deal on their hands.

(Photo by Keith Allison/flickr)

The full NL MVP voting results included a number of Reds players (down the ballot), starting with Jay Bruce who came in at #10, followed by Aroldis Chapman (12th), Brandon Phillips (13th), Joey Votto(14th), and Johnny Cueto (30th). This brings up the question of who was the Reds most valuable player this season. Among hitters, I think it’s Joey Votto, and I don’t think it’s close.

Now, there are a lot of arguments for why it shouldn’t be Votto. Joey missed a lot of time with his leg injury, and even after he came back, he clearly wasn’t at full strength in terms of power. Even so, Votto’s first three months were so impressive, I think the not-actually-existing honor of being the best Reds position player this year still belongs to him. This year, Votto (again) excelled at both offense and defense. According to fangraphs, Votto was worth 46 runs just with his bat. That’s well over twice what the second guy has, and that does account for Joey’s limited playing time (of course, Ludwick, who comes in with 21 runs, also suffers from his lowered playing time early in the season). If you like WAR (and we now know that the AL MVP voters don’t), Joey still edges out the next best guy by almost 2 whole wins.

There is a certain feeling though, that the Reds went on their hottest streak when Joey was out, so he couldn’t have been that valuable. I think a lot of people feel that the hitters that stepped up during Votto’s absence were more important to the team, including by turns Todd Frazier and Ryan Ludwick among others. But let me show you something.

This takes a bit of explanation – but I divided the season into 16 chronological segments (with a half segment at the end). The number of games in each segment varies between 9 and 11, because I based it on 2 Cueto starts each (because I intend to apply this to pitchers in a later segment). I then added up the wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average: basically how many runs your bat produced)  for each batter for each segment. Here’s how it looks:

Now, these segments are arbitrary, so it’s not that useful to make detailed arguments based on these numbers,but the overall picture is clear. While you can see that a variety of different players improved during different parts of Votto’s absence (and Ludwick and Frazier are certainly the most consistent of them), what’s way more obvious is the way Votto carried the team in the month and a half before his injury.

Look at that black line! For four segments (~40 games), Votto is producing about as many runs as the rest of the lineup put together. If you want to look at one man who is carrying the team over a period of time, it is obviously Joey who kept the Reds in the race in the first half. In late June, the Reds were approximately 7-8 games over .500, and led the NL Central by one game. Without Joey, we’re not there.

P.S. I’ve included the definition of the segments and the numbers version of the graph, with the most valuable hitter for the segment after the cut.

» Continue reading “2012 Most Valuable Reds Hitter: Just Who Carried Who?”

The C-ing Red puppy is very proud of the 2012 Reds, and he’s especially impressed with how great the rotation was. It’s not easy to pitch so well in this ballpark, woof!

It’s been a rough few days, Reds fans. The historical catastrophe of the National League Division Series we lost on Thursday night is not something that can be erased from our memories in a few hours. Most of us are still pretty deep in mourning, realigning mostly into camps based on whether they won’t watch the rest of the post-season, have some attachment to the Tigers/Yankees, or can forgive the Giants enough for beating us to hope they beat the Cardinals, and maybe even win it all. Even though there has been some terrible, terrible things that have happened to the 2012 Reds in the last week, there are some amazing things that happened to the 2012 Reds, and I think now’s a perfect time to be reminded of those things.

Most of these are short notes, and I’ll probably cover some of them in more detail as the off-season crawls on, but for now, I just want to remember how good things were for Reds fans this summer.

10. 10,000 Reds win - This was well covered back in April, even here, but the Cincinnati Reds franchise, at least counting the eligible years as baseball-reference and official MLB stats do, won their 10,000th game this year. Unfortunately, there’s no awesome prize for the franchise that wins 10^4 games over a century or so, but it’s a cool marker and our 10,091 wins put us 6th among all the teams. It’s just another fantastic reminder that this is a great team with a proud franchise history.

9. Ryan Ludwick’s 500th RBI – This isn’t so much exciting in and of itself, but more of a symbol of the Ryan Ludwick that we got, as opposed to the Ryan Ludwick some fans worried we might get. For what it’s worth, Ludwick’s 530 total RBI sneaks him into the top 1000 career RBI-attainers. Ludwick seems like a great guy, a good clubhouse influence, and a solid bat now, but back in March, only a small percentage of fans were really excited about him. That’s not for terrible reasons. Ludwick’s put together some excellent seasons since his first at-bat for the Texas Rangers in 2002, but they’ve been spliced in-between a lot of mediocre performances, and some time in San Diego where he seemed outright bad. Now, Walt’s faith in Ludwick dating back to Ryan’s Cardinal days appears very well-founded indeed. He was one of many important cogs that got the Reds into the post-season, but it’s still fair to say that without Ludwick, the Reds do not fare very well in 2012.

8. We have an actual starting shortstop - Hooray for Zack Cozart. Now, while Cozy had a hot start that he eventually couldn’t live up to, he accomplished with his glove what he couldn’t with his bat. Overall, his offensive numbers are not what you might wish, but Cozart never really profiled as a slugging type shortstop anyway. I think we all have hopes that he can his improve his hitting numbers to a more healthy, say 90-ish OPS+, but his defensive numbers, though a small sample size, give him a lot of value.  His 131 games started at shortstop is the most by a Red since Felipe Lopez in 2006.

7. Brandon Phillips’ Bazillionth Web Gem – So, this one might not be totally technical. But though it’s hard to find a milestone for BP’s defensive prowess, his ability in the field is undeniable. Brandon is a great defensive constant in our infield, and it really makes him worth every penny. There are some (jealous, bitter, haters, obvy) who think that his flashy plays are not particularly well-correlated to actual defensive values. While this may be true to some extent, those people suck, Brandon is an excellent defender, both in true value and being an exciting player to watch. People want to watch him play second, and pitchers want him playing behind them. What else can you say?

6. Healthiest rotation ever – The 2012 Cincinnati Reds had five starting pitchers who started 161 games this season. Todd Redmond started one game, and that’s only because of a double-header situation. The rotation that opened the season went on to pitch 99.4% of all starts in the season. I’m sure I’ll write more on this later, but I’ve gone back 30 years, and no Reds rotation has come close to 2012′s reliability.

5. Todd Frazier ROY - I think, now Harper is the front runner for the Rookie of the Year award among all hitters, and probably deservedly so. Frazier’s bat was just a little bit better, and Harper played better defense at a more important position. He’s also younger, which is probably at least a little bit relevant. Still, though Frazier’s had his struggles in the Reds system, he came up this year and put up a great first season, while producing enough material for 10 verses of the Ballad of Todd Frazier. I’m really looking forward to see him as the Reds regular Third Baseman in the future.

4. Johnny Cueto dodges DIPS regression again - While Cueto, like Frazier probably won’t merit an end-of-the-year award, Cueto was fantastic this year. Though just one of many pitchers whose WAR somewhat understates what seems to be a repeated ability to prevent runs from being scored, Cueto is one of the best. This season finally puts to rest most of the troubling ‘regression’ theories when it comes to Cueto. He’s one of the best pitchers in the NL, and people know it now.

3. The rise of Aroldis Chapman - Chapman’s been making waves since he first arrived in the US, but he’s made great strides as a pitcher this season. This success may put the final nail in the coffin of Chapman’s starting career, but it’s hard to complain. His K/9 on the season is over 15, and his BB/9 has shrunk to a more than respectable 2.89. He’s excellent against righties with a .501 OPS against, but lefties might as well just give up before they get to the plate.

2. Homer Bailey no-hitter - This hardly needs any more comment, since it happened so recently. Homer Bailey is going to be a good pitcher. That wasn’t always clear, but it’s pretty obvious now. Of course, nothing in baseball-future is ever guaranteed, but no matter what, no one can take the no-hitter away from him.

1. Reds win a playoff game - It’s easy to remember the really shitty part of the NLDS, but let’s not forget the great parts. We went out to San Francisco and got a great pair of wins away from home. Those two wins are our first since the 1995 NLDS against the Dodgers, so it’s always good to end a 17 year playoff win drought. We’ve gone to the playoffs twice in three years now, and we’ve improved. So, in 2014, we can expect to go to the NLCS, and we’ll probably win the World Series in 2022.

All in all, I’d say it was a pretty excellent year.

Dear TNT and the Makers of Law & Order:

Tonight, I turned on the television to TNT, which I assume is short for “Turner Network Tnetennba”, to watch one of my favorite shows, Law  & Order. I was highly disappointed by what I saw.

Tonight’s episode “Reds vs. Giants” was the worst episode of Law and Order that I have ever seen in my life.

For one, I recognized right away that it was one of those gimmick episodes that tries to cross-promote shows on the same network by switching casts of characters. I have no idea what television program these characters were supposedly from, but this was obviously a terrible idea. Clearly, these characters were from a sports-based show, which does not mesh well with Law and Order’s procedural format, and moreover, they were ludicrous. The handsome, soft-spoken, good-at-everything Canadian, Joey Votto? What’s the point of a character who never makes a single mistake and is better than everyone at everything in the world? If you want a character to be relatable, don’t make him go 3-4 with two runs scored. Or the friendly, easy-going Ryan Ludwick. A guy going 2-3 with a HR is just too much skill for a convincing TV character.

Second of all, there was no conflict to this story. It was obvious from the very beginning that lead prosecutor Bronson Arroyo would give all those Giants fellas what they deserved. Where’s the fun in the story if one side only gets two hits, and is completely shut down by the opposition? It was easy to root for Arroyo, given his background, and his flowing, blond mane, and his double-ear-beflapped helmet, but it’s really only fulfilling if we get to see him develop and overcome adversity for even a little bit. There was no adversity here! Just a seven inning postseason outing with only 2 baserunners!

Lastly, the right fielding character, Hunter Pence? That beard should not be allowed on television.

I really hope that this episode of Law & Order is never aired on TNT again. Thank you for your time

Sincerely,

A Concerned Fan

P.S. Oh, gods of baseball karma, please don’t take this too seriously. It is clearly satire. Amen.

Whoops, spoiler alert. (Photo by Chris Staley/Flickr)

Well, since my last strange and useless statistic came up lemons on Ryan Ludwick discussion points, I clearly just had to make up my own, right?

It’s hard to try to measure (non)-volatility, but I thought I’d take a shot, just based on how many starts with zero hits a player has. That part was basic, because I just divided the number of games started with no hits, by the player’s number of starts. Obviously, the lower that is, the better. Then I decided to take it a little farther. I mean, Joey Votto is going to have the fewest 0-hit games, just because it’s much harder to get him out. I mean, obviously that still means Joey Votto is the best, because being really good at baseball is the best way to be a really good baseball player.

But just for funsies, I calculated an ‘expected’ percentage. I based it on the player’s batting average and number of AB’s that specific player averages in his starts. It’s not perfect, of course, and probably ludicrously inaccurate, statistically speaking. I just wanted to partially reflect the fact that Drew Stubbs almost never gets a hit (so he’s obviously going to have more 0-fors), and Ryan Hanigan gets significantly fewer AB per start (so he’s obviously going to have fewer 0-fors).

The results reveal that, adjusted for his batting average and average number of AB, Ryan Ludwick is our most consistent Red:

Congratulations, Ryan, your trophy is in the mail. It’s a very important award. A very, very important award. You’re welcome.

How could you not love stat whose all-period-we-were-officially-recording-it and single-season records belong to this beautiful moustache? (Photo by AJ Schuster/Flickr)

In this afternoon’s game, the Reds won in extra innings, thanks to some late heroics by (among others) Ryan Ludwick. While it’s probably best not to discuss how we got to that extra innings tie-game, I thought it seemed like Ryan Ludwick, even more so than his impressive overall batting numbers would indicate, seemed to come up really big in late innings. Afterall, in 3 of our 6 extra innings wins, Ludwick has come up with the winning hit (July 14, September 10, and today). His ‘clutch’ statistic on fangraphs is reasonably good, but behind both Votto and Phillips.

Anyway, it’s hard to come up with a good clutch/late innings heroics number, so I settled for going back to an old, bad one: Game-Winning RBI (GWRBI). I mean, we all talk about game winning RBI, and we all agree that we like it when our team has them, but this is much more specific.

Game-Winning RBI, apparently, was recorded by MLB from 1980-1988, and is awarded to the player “whose at-bat was responsible for bringing his team ahead for the final time in the game.” Obviously, this definition is going to cause some issues, because, if, say, Zack Cozart hits a leadoff home run in the top of the first, and then all-manner of shenanigans goes on, causing the final score to be Reds 19, Losers 15, Zack Cozart still gets the GWRBI, assuming that the Reds never lost the lead during aforementioned shenanigans. It doesn’t go to the batter who hit RBI number one more than the opposing team eventually scored, which some people thought it ought to, I guess.

It’s for that issue, and I assume because it’s not a particularly useful statistics, that MLB dropped it. I mean, RBI isn’t really the best judge of even run-driving-in capability, much less hitting ability, and restricting it further is decreasing your sample size. And the decision of which RBI are game winning is pretty arbitrary.

Fun, right? So, for 2012, here are the 2012 Reds GW RBI stats. Keep in mind, of course, that this is a useless, meaningless number.

**I may have included some game-winning plate appearances where a runner scored via a bases-loaded walk or an error. I know, I’m a rebel.

Note that the total number adds up to 88 – the same number of keys on a piano! the number of wins the Reds have so far this year. It is mildly interesting that Phillips, who has 74 RBI to Bruce’s 96, has more GWRBI, I suppose. Hooray for clutchness, batting order, and/or random chance! Ryan Ludwick doesn’t particularly stand out here, so this makes the introduction to this post a particularly artless segue.

What was the point of this, then? I guess, General Information, a tribute to Keith Hernandez, and a reminder that sometimes MLB keeps track of some really stupid shit.

(Photo by Keith Allison/Flickr)

Or, “The Search For Frazier’s Playing Time”

Today marked the first day of Joey Votto’s return to the Reds lineup. It was like Christmas, Chanukkah, Festivus, and Ramadan all rolled into one. As expected, he was fantastic, though the outcome of the game was not so great. A lot of angst has been put into the the fate of Todd Frazier, with good reason. Since Votto’s injury, Frazier has slotted in most often at first base, while Rolen has gone back to manning third almost full time.

Both before and after the injury, Frazier has been excellent, which has been highlighted by the fact that his playing time nearly doubled after the Votto Injury Watershed. Here’s a look at the offense, before and after 7/15, which was the last game (before today) that Joey Votto appeared in.

That really highlights how important Todd Frazier become to the Reds, as the player with the most plate appearances, after Joey went on the DL.  Unfortunately, the numbers demonstrate how difficult it’s going to be to get Frazier on the lineup as much he deserves in the next month. Thought Frazier started in the Reds system as a shortstop, right now, it looks like he can essentially be trusted to play first, third, and maybe a little left field. However, we’ve got Mr. MVP back at first base now, and both Rolen(.894) and Ludwick (1.051)  have hit very well with Joey out.

Obviously, I think that Frazier should take on more of the starts at third base. We won’t get much improvement over the last 30 games from that, as Rolen has hit so well in Joey’s absence – but it will probably be beneficial going forward, as Rolen may be wearing down at the end of the season. (Though I’m pretty confident that Dusty won’t sit Rolen as often as I would. Meh, c’est la vie.) Slotting Frazier in at first is probably also a good idea, as Joey certainly doesn’t need to be playing seven games a week, straight from coming off injury.  It’s tempting to throw Frazier into left – but 1) Ludwick is hitting well, and 2) considering defense, Heisey is probably the better sub.

It’s frustrating that we can’t shift Frazier to take on some of the weaker spots in the lineup, but unless he’s learned to catch, or play center field, our options may be limited. It’s also a shame to think that the return of Votto is only going to provide marginal improvement to our offense. I mean, Joey is the god-king-emperor of all creation and all, but his return would be more dramatic if Votto was going to essentially replace 5 Miguel Cairo plate appearances every game.

This graphic (supposedly) represents the Reds defense in 2011. (The plays and balls in zone numbers are really basic numbers available from fangraphs. The playing time percentages are based on innings played.) That 2011 team sucked, but the defense was highly rated – ranking 2nd in overall UZR in the NL, and 4th in fielding percentage. We also topped the NL, and were second only to Tampa Bay in MLB, in defensive efficiency rating – the most basic rating of how many balls in play get fielded.

Fast forward to 2012, and it’s suddenly no longer the case. Hal McCoy and Dusty have commented on it recently: but mostly in terms of a error-licious Cubs series. But it’s more than just that. We’re actually still 4th in fielding percentage. But our team total UZR and DER have dropped to almost exactly league average. Here’s what the same graph looks like for this season:

» Continue reading “Why Is The Reds Defense So Much Worse In 2012?”

I mean seriously, is it just me, or has Travis Wood decided to look more like Bronson since he’s been traded to the Cubs. Just look at this:

I mean, it’s weird, right? In any case, old, right-handed, less shitty Bronson Arroyo (Bronson Classic, if you will) had a pretty good game. He went eight innings, allowed only two runs on 5 hits, and a walk. It’s actually maybe a little unfortunate that he even allowed two runs, because the Cubs strung together three of those hits and the walk to score those runs in the second inning – outside of that, Bronson pitched seven innings with only two baserunners.

The Reds themselves only managed to score 4 runs, most of them actually off of reliever James Russell.  But all of the Reds position-starters got in a hit today. Brandon Phillips was exceptionally good, with 3 hits, one a double, and Ryan Ludwick hit yet another clutch double for two RBI in the eighth inning.

It was enough. Chapman came in for the top of the ninth, striking out 2 (once again tying with Homer Bailey for 3rd place in strikeouts on the Reds), and got the save. That’s two wins in a row now, combined with a Pittsburgh loss, so we’re 4 full games ahead in the division. It’s a pretty good place to be.

Photo by crymzn/Flickr

Tonight was a really important win for us, I’d say. It’s our first win in the 2012 sans-Joey era. And so we know we can win without him. It’s not quite as pleasant, and it’s certainly not pretty. Ryan “not the scapegoat” Ludwick gets a lot of a credit for a clutch three-run homer, but most of the hitters weren’t totally hopeless.

Johnny Cueto, was obviously  a big part of our win, too. His pitching performance probably wasn’t as impressive as no runs allowed generally indicates – he didn’t last too long into the game, getting into some trouble, especially with walks. Nonetheless, the D-backs got only 4 hits, and only one of them for extra bases – a double.  Once again, really needing the win tonight, Cueto stepped up.

It’s become a bit of a familiar role for him. By my count, Cueto has taken the mound 8 times this season, when the Reds had lost the game before – we’ve won seven of those games. It’s such a great feeling to have a guy you can count on to stop a losing streak, sometimes before it starts.