Reds Bullpen Musical Chairs Comes To A Close: Broxy Stays In Cincy

Sadly, there may now never be a creative commons licensed photo of Ryan Madson in a Reds uniform (a gentle tear is shed) (Photo by phillymads63 on Flickr)

We now have a much better picture of what the Reds bullpen will look like in 2013. Jonathan Broxton has signed with the Reds on a $21 million, 3 year contract. It’s incredibly backloaded: the Reds will pay him 4 million in 2013, but that jumps to 7 and 9 million in subsequent years. Like most of Walt’s moves, I find this acceptable, and in fact, I may be a little higher than average on this. It’s an expensive deal for the Reds, but good closers are pricy. Will Broxton be a great closer? Maybe not, but he’s got a better than average chance of being a good one. Broxton’s peripherals do worry me a little bit: walks are alright for a closer – especially the way Dusty uses ‘em, but Broxton’s career K/9 of 11.0 might be misleading -as he hasn’t posted outstanding strikeout rates like that since his injury-riddled 2011.

Let’s be realistic, though. Remember Francisco Cordero?  Coco probably had a more solid track record when he signed his much-more-expensive contract with the Reds back in 2008, but he was also 5 years older – which we definitely saw in the second half of that $45mill/4 yr deal.

I guess I’d say it’s an overpay on the value of Broxton, but it’s not an overpay for an above average chance of having a solid closer.

Meanwhile, Ryan Madson has agreed to a one year, 3.5 million deal with the Angels, which could rise to as much as 7 million, if Madson is healthy enough to contribute to the team, coming off of Tommy John surgery. I’ll  miss Madson (Oh, straight change, we hardly knew ye) , but I don’t know that the Broxton deal might not be better for us. Given the projections for TJ recovery, Madson’s at least as much of a gamble as Broxton for 2013. Think of it this way: if they both suck, Broxton gets 4 mill, and Madson gets 3.5 mill – almost the same. But if they’re both pretty good – Madson gets 7, and Broxton still gets 4,  which means a little more cash to pay for that left fielder we’re hoping for. Sure, a GM with more experience than me probably a has a little better idea of how risky Broxton and Madson are respectively, but I figure there’s decent odds for all outcomes, here.

Do we have internal options that are better for the money? Probably. But the Reds going after an “established” “closer” is just a Tradition at this point – let’s not be surprised about it.

(Then again, if Ryan Madson pitches like RYAN MAAAAADSON in 2013, it’s totally possible that Bob would’ve been happy to find a little more cash in the banana stand.)

I am mildly concerned about the state of the payroll in, say, 2015, but that’s a long way away in baseball terms. n financial terms. that’s Walt’s problem (and Bob’s problem), not mine.

**In unrelated news: Zach Stewart returns to the NL Central after being acquired by the Pirates. Hi, Zach Stewart! Maybe we could Rolen to the Pirates for you.


But You’ll Have To Answer To The Guns Of Broxton.

The San Diego Padres did crush/bruise a little bit – but after six mediocre innings, the newly minted Reds bullpen came in for three bangarang innings to finish out the game. Lefty- righty – lefty: Marshall took the seventh and got three outs on balls in play, Broxton grabbed a strikeout and two groundouts in the 8th, and in the 9th, Aroldis “Aroldis Chapman” Chapman was slightly un-Aroldis-y, only one K, and he allowed an hit. But he got three outs on his way to his 23rd save.

Offensively speaking, the Reds scored a respectable 6 runs, and Stubbs and Ludwick provided a lot of that. Stubbs did get caught stealing, but got on base 3 times tonight, and scored 2 runs – one of them on a Ludwick single which also saw Ludwick AND Rolen get out on the basepaths. The Veterans were not very present in that inning. Most of the lineup did pretty well, though – Bruce and Frazier hit doubles, and Cozart had a home run. Even Wilson “I’m really not as good as Brandon Phillips” Valdez got on base twice via the walk.

I suppose Bronson Arroyo was the least un-disappointing performance tonight – but, for Arroyo, a 2 walk performance with only 1 HR is probably acceptable.

 


Walt Rescues The Reds’ Terrible Terrible Bullpen At The Deadline

About a half an hour before the trade deadline, the news came out that the Reds had acquired the Royals’ closer Jonathan Broxton for pitching prospects J.C. Sulbaran and Donnie Joseph

Broxton is a solid addition to the bullpen. He’s only 28, and already has over 100 saves. He’s not getting the strikeouts he did in his mid-20s, but he still has the results. He had some worrying injury issues all through 2011, and only threw a few innings, but he’s doing well now. He’s a two pitch guy – fastball/slider, with the fastball coming in at an average of 95 mph, but he hits the high 90s semi-regularly, making him slower, but sort of complementary to Chapman as a righty in the pen. Currently, he’s making $4 million on a 1 year deal he signed this winter.

It’s not the most useful move that Walt could have made, in my opinion. The bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Getting a reliable righty does help, and I think that Broxton is an upgrade over Ondrusek, Simon, and the like, but I’m not too impressed with his walk rate, and his thus inflated WHIP. However, I have to admit that Broxton has solid groundball rates over his career – which bodes well for his transition from Kauffman and Dodger Stadium.

On the other hand, we didn’t give up too much for him. J.C. Sulbaran is a solid pitching prospect – young, and developing reasonably well – thought not really a blue chip, and certainly not a sure thing. He first hit my radar pitching for the Netherlands in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, though, so I was kind of fond of him. Donnie Joseph is a lefty reliever  - 25 and in AAA, after dominating in AA Pensacola earlier this year. I think he’ll be a useful MLB player at some point, but given the situation, he’s probably not a great loss.

Maybe I would have liked some unlikely trade for Shin-Soo Choo better. I’m a little worried that Walt made this trade partially just to make a trade once it was clear that the outfielders we were interested in weren’t going to slip our way. But I think our team is pretty great, this trade doesn’t hurt, so welcome to the Reds, Jonathan Broxton.