The C-ing Red Puppy is really into the Giro d’Italia right now and has not even been watching the Reds. BAD DOG.

So, it’s been awhile since I’ve blogged about the Reds. In related news, moving sucks.

While I’ve been keeping an eye on the Reds in my absence, I have been a bit distracted, and really, it seems like we’ve had a lot of bad news – Ludwick went out while I was still paying attention, but then we had Johnny Cueto and Ryan Hanigan go on the DL, and also Manny Parra (…oh noooooo..) and Nick Masset (…what a surpriiiiiiise…). Also, from what I’ve been hearing, Jay Bruce is the worst baseball player in the history of the galaxy, and Zack Cozart’s number two hitting has been condemned by the Catholic Church (that new pope is so cray-cray!)

Yet, we seem to be doing alright. 19-15 is pretty good. I can live with it. It probably doesn’t justify how cocky we were before the season started, but I’m not sure what would have justified how cocky we were at the beginning of the season (a Nobel Peace Prize, maybe?). I mean I said “Oh guys, we’ll be pretty good, but let’s not get out of hand,” but you know in my head I was like “YEAH WE’RE THE BEST SCREW THE NATS AND THE DODGERS AND THE GIANTS WE’RE BETTER THAN Y’ALL DON’T EVEN FORGET IT.” So, yeah. We haven’t been that good.

We are doing spectacularly ok, though, and I’d like to take a few minutes to thank the Reds who have picked up the slack for their teammates.Mat Latos: Latos has gone just over 6 inning on average in his seven starts, but they’ve been pretty awesome innings. His worst start so far was probably  his last- Sunday’s afternoon game against the Cubs – but even that was hardly terrible. I also like the way he’s striking out a lot of batters, not walking very man, and being especially sparing with the home runs. The HR number might regress a bit, but it’s a good recipe for success none the less.

Tony Cingrani: Cingrani’s done as much as a 23-year-old called up to the big leagues on an emergency basis can do, and more. He probably won’t striket out 12 batters per 9 innings for his career, but hey, if he can ride a bit of luck out for the next few months, we could very well have a ROY candidate at the end of the year.

Shin Soo Choo: Shin Soo Choo is the greatest ever, and we now have mathematical proof.  He leads the Reds in basically every category – inching out Joey Votto in average and on-base, and outpacing him by a much bigger stretch in power. I thought that Choo would be able to grab some more home runs in Great American, since it’s a little smaller, and the left field wall is a lot lower – in a very limited sample size: I was totally, right.

Joey Votto: Is still awesome. Who cares how many runs he drives in? NO ONE WITH TASTE OR DISCERNMENT. (J/K, guys, j/k. (Actually, I’m not kidding, I mean it.) I am a bit sad that he’s no longer on pace to walk 230 times. That would’ve been totally rad.

Ok, now I’ve got to go write a fake movie preview where the Tampa Bay Rays were the ones behind the European airport diamond heist in order to get enough money to build a time machine and bring back young Wade Boggs. And then somehow convince him he plays for the Rays.

This is a continuation, kind of, of the 2012 Hitter Similarity Index post previous to this. Either scroll down or click here if you want to read that.

If you don’t want to read the other post, just know that I worked out a ‘hitter similiarity index’ – where you compare two players’ rate stats (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, K). The most dissimilar players of 2012 were Adam Dunn and Juan Pierre – and not only were they the most dissimilar to each other, one of those two players was the least similar player to every other player in MLB (sample: batter with >300 PA).

So, I thought I’d explore that a little. First, I just did a scatterplot of Pierre similarity, vs. Dunn similarity:

Ok! That’s not bad! Sure, it’s basically based entirely along walks, strikeouts and home run power, but still – it does a pretty good job (with the exception of one player). Partially because 2012 Dunn and Pierre were the platonic ideals of the “three-true outcomes guy” and “contact hitter”. So, I decided, why not rotate the graph around, so the regression line is your new x-axis? Well, because if there’s an easy way to do that, I don’t know it. But I didn’t let that stop me. So it took some work (just basic algebra, though), and here’s the new graph.

My favorite part is the Joey Votto part. (Which is something I say approximately 10 times a week). Every player basically fits on this continuum, except Joey Votto – thanks to a higher than Dunn walk rate, and a higher than god doubles rate, I’m guessing.  You also have a division here – above the x-axis, and the player is relatively more like both dunn and pierre, and below, the player is relatively less like both dunn and pierre. Joey Votto is way, way, way below the line.

Going along the x-axis, you have a measure of (relative to the other batters), how the degree to which a player comparatively fits the Dunn vs. the Pierre mold. The x-value for each player gives his position on the Pierre-Dunn continuum. just to be clear, the player closest to Dunn on that continuum isn’t necessarily the most similar to Dunn – it’s the player that’s the most Dunn and the least Pierre. Thus, I can list 266 batters with more than 300 PA in 2012 in order of Pierresqueness to Dunnosity. So I will. (below the break)

» Continue reading “The Pierre-Dunn Continuum – Hitter Similarity Index Part 2″

(Photo by Keith Allison/Flickr)

Definitely a nice change of pace from our recent troubles, all around. First of all, we won (twice), which is great. Second, we swept the Phillies, which is pretty amazing after the 5 game losing streak (and the panic and doom-foretelling it inspired). Thirdly, the offense was back to Week 1 levels. Fourthly, it was a really great start from Mr. Mike Leake. It’s sad, really – Mike Leake was so impressive as a rookie that never went to the minors, and we all loved him. A few years later, he’s still pretty good for a 25 year-old non-flamethrowing starter, but we apparently expect more out of him. Well, we got more tonight. 7 innings, no runs, 3 hits, and seven strikeouts/zero walks is good enough no matter what, but to add to that – he goes 3 for 4 with a triple.

So now Mike Leake has 9 PA – with four hits, including a triple (thanks to some adventurous fielding by Ben Revere) – by my math, that gives him a 0.444 average (and OBP) and a .667 OBP – a 1.111 OPS. Clearly that makes Mike Leake our best all-around hitter. If you’ve read the Enquirer lately, you’ll realize that the Reds have a huge #3 hitter problem. The current batter in that spot just walks too much – and doesn’t drive in runs, because he’s too busy walking. Thankfully, we have an obvious solution. Bat Mike Leake 3rd. With three hits tonight and one extra base hit in every 9 plate appearances, Leake is clearly what we need in that number three spot. In AL games he can be our DH. If he’s not pitching, let’s just stick him in LF.  BAM! Third spot in the order problem solved! (/sarcasm)

It’s also great to see Cozart and Bruce pick it up, in both the bottom 9th of yesterday’s game today, and in the main show this evening. Jay Bruce may not be super clutch, but he’s not totally unable. Also, you have to love Cozart’s 4 home runs already. Some more pop from him could really help this team drive in runs – especially if Ludwick comes back and Cozart goes back toward the bottom half of the lineup.

The best part is that Joey didn’t hit today, but he did walk in the bottom of the 9th in the continuance game, and then got hit by a pitch in the evening game, which means the on-base streak is still alive! Choo sat today, and the Angels got postponed – which means that Trumbo was out too, so their streaks are still alive, but Votto moves into sole possession of the longest-season on base streak. Also – ho w

Photo by Keith Allison/Flickr

Incidentally, I still hate the Cardinals, of course, but at this point it’s pretty much for the fun of it. Tony LaRussa is gone. Chris Carpenter is (sorta?) gone. Other jerks are gone. The dichotomy of terrible fans who call themselves the best fans in baseball and mediocre/good fans who pretend those other fans don’t exist and insist that no Cardinals fans actually refer to the BFIB title while subtly (or not so subtly) implying that they are indeed better than other teams’ fans …. that is still tiring. But in the scheme of shitty fanbase drama, it’s really not remarkable. I’m probably way worse, objectively, just complaining about it as much as I do.

But still. The Cardinals are stupid and dumb, because it’s fun to say so. Losing to the Cardinals? Doubly stupid and trebly dumb. That’s why it was no nice to not lose yesterday. Losing today was not so good, especially when things went off the rails so suddenly, and then slowly slipped beyond saving. But here at C-ing Red, we actually don’t like scapegoats and sadness and talking about how the Reds weren’t good.

• Bronson Arroyo’s 5 inning of perfect baseball – I mean, yeah, it would’ve been better if it were, say, 9 innings of perfect baseball, but you take what you can get. Arroyo’s eventual 6 IP and 4 runs allowed is not ideal by any means, but Bronson’s not as young as you used to be, and you’ve gotta take what you can get. A little excitement in innings 4 and 5? Hey, why not.

• JJ Hoover didn’t pitch today. Get that kid some rest. Dang. Really, we only used Parra out of the bullpen, so that gives as good a chance as any in tomorrow’s rubber match – featuring Jake Westbrook and Homer Bailey.

• Joey Votto got on base. That extends his streak to 8 games – which is, incidentally, all of the games we’ve played. The remarkable thing is that Shin Soo Choo also got on base today, which matches Joey (on-base streaks don’t cross seasons). 8 games is not that remarkable – Joey’s had much longer streaks, obviously, but it’s kinda cool to have two guys to start off the season. The Reds offense has been pretty consistent from that point of view – Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier each have gotten hits in 6 out of the Reds 8 total games.

• 5-3 is really pretty good. And more than that, playing the Cardinals definitely feels like just playing another team, this year- I don’t think there’s any (or very much) emotional baggage tied to the Cards series at this point.  I’m glad if we win and sad if we lose (Because, as stated early, the Cardinals are stupid and dumb), but that’s all there is to it.

I’ll miss you, Scott and Miguel. But not too, too much. (Photos by Keith Allison/Flickr)

It’s a strange thing – though generally the Reds had very low turnover this offseason, the opening day roster will still feel very “new look”, thanks to the lack of Scott Rolen and Miguel Cairo. Neither player will be suiting up for the Reds in the 2013 season. Miguel Cairo has taken a position with the Reds, as a Special Assistant to the GM. While Scott Rolen has not said what he’ll be doing, he won’t be attending camp with the Reds, and it’s hard to see him joining the team midseason without significant injury to the current roster. Rolen’s ambivalence this off-season suggests that he’s not ready to leave baseball just yet. It’s not impossible for him to end up with some team in 2013, but I think it’s more likely that he’ll end up taking some time off, and maybe gradually inching into management positions – but he’s said he wants to spend more time with his family.

Cairo and Rolen haven’t defined the recent Reds teams, but they’ve been a mainstay since 2010 – as part of Walt Jocketty’s Veteran Presence Former-Cardinals Initiative. (It’s like the Avengers Initiative, but with less pecs and more shoulder injuries.) Rolen was brought in to provide a more stable presence (offensively and defensively) at third base in a trade that sent Edwin Encarnacion, Zack Stewart (who?) and Josh Roenicke (who?) to the Blue Jays, while Cairo came in as a free agent in the following offseason.

2010 was definitely the best year for CaiRolen – Rolen was great everywhere, at the plate, in the field, in the the clubhouse, and Cairo was pretty excellent for a bench player. 2011 went a little haywire: Cairo still provided league average offense, but had an increased responsibility, thanks to Rolen’s injury problems. That was only one of the multiple failures with the 2011 team, but it surely showed us one of the potential drawbacks of older players. 2012 was a bit of a return to form for Rolen, but the 37-year-old was still subpar, especially with a young fun like Frazier knocking down the door. Meanwhile, Cairo sank into the pit that was the 2012 Reds bench.

Here is Rolen’s final line with the Reds:

And Cairo’s:

By the numbers, at least, Rolen and Cairo won’t be hard to replace. Rolen was worth about 1.1 WAR last year, while Frazier was worth 2.8 (in more playing time, overall). More time will exacerbate Frazier’s slightly below average fielding, but then again, settling into one position might improve Todd’s defensive skills. Still, the projections see Frazier as about a 3 win player in 2013, and I agree.

Cairo was rated as worth -1 wins last year. Infield bench replacements look likely to be Jack Hannahan, and Jason Donald. Hannahan was worth about 0.5 wins (~300 PA, 750 innings) with the Indians last year, and Donald was worth -0.4 wins (~130 PA, 300 innings). Neither are spectacular options, but bench guys rarely are. In any case, they can almost certainly match the work of Valdex and Cairo last year.

Of course, the line on both Cairo and Rolen has been their role as veteran clubhouse leaders. While I, like most interneters, have no direct knowledge of this, the stories do suggest that this was of some importance. I certainly appreciated their ability to not be involved in scandals, and even to not say anything that caused too much of a stir. A team of 25 of those guys might be a little boring, but a couple of solid presences is always appreciated.

In 2013, though, the team has changed in substance. Joey Votto is not promising youngster – he’s an MVP who’s been to the post-season twice, and overcome multiple struggles. Brandon Phillips is now a part of the fabric of this team, you have guys like Bruce and Hanigan who have been around for awhile. There are still older, experienced players around – like Arroyo in the rotation, and Ludwick in the outfield. Mostly, though, when I look at this team, I see a team that has grown together. They know each other’s quirks and idiosyncracies. They’ve won and lost together.

Look! It’s so sunny, and palm-y and Brancusi-y. (Photo by Michael J. Mandeville, Flickr)

Even though a blizzard is just about to blow through the north-east, it’s really almost time for there to be pre-pre-baseball! Yup, it’s that’s time of year. A time of renewal, a time of “best-shape-of-your-life”, a time of grapefruits and cactuses, a time of …spring training statistics.

Look, I know you know spring training statistics are dumb and meaningless, but sometimes in the spring it’s easy to get caught up. I mean,  here we are, looking at news about Mike Leake avoiding arbitration, and stressing out about whether participation in the WBC is courting injury. And then, suddenly … there’s a baseball player! He’s holding a bat! Some other baseball player throws a ball at him, and some outcome occurs! And sweet baby jesus, someone records the result and puts it on the internet. I just want to love it and hug it and call it George.

But I shouldn’t. Because you know I know that spring training statistics are dumb. So as a reminder to myself, I went back to last year’s spring training statistics and compared them with the regular season marks. Et voila:

It’s like Votto and Rolen got into a crazy baseball-skills-switching device. But they couldn’t switch back, and then they had to find two extra people to have them get back in the correct bodies. Also,  Wilson Valdez looked like an acceptably horrible hitter. Stubbs looked liked he could hit a baseball! Oh, the magic of 20 meaningless plate appearances.

Pitchers can be a little different:

Well, and maybe it’s just our hitters, but clearly pitching CAN be bad for everyone across the board in ST. So there’s no need to worry about spring training numbers, just about how we’re going to handle Chapman pitching in the rotation. Hurray!

(Photo by Keith Allison/flickr)

The full NL MVP voting results included a number of Reds players (down the ballot), starting with Jay Bruce who came in at #10, followed by Aroldis Chapman (12th), Brandon Phillips (13th), Joey Votto(14th), and Johnny Cueto (30th). This brings up the question of who was the Reds most valuable player this season. Among hitters, I think it’s Joey Votto, and I don’t think it’s close.

Now, there are a lot of arguments for why it shouldn’t be Votto. Joey missed a lot of time with his leg injury, and even after he came back, he clearly wasn’t at full strength in terms of power. Even so, Votto’s first three months were so impressive, I think the not-actually-existing honor of being the best Reds position player this year still belongs to him. This year, Votto (again) excelled at both offense and defense. According to fangraphs, Votto was worth 46 runs just with his bat. That’s well over twice what the second guy has, and that does account for Joey’s limited playing time (of course, Ludwick, who comes in with 21 runs, also suffers from his lowered playing time early in the season). If you like WAR (and we now know that the AL MVP voters don’t), Joey still edges out the next best guy by almost 2 whole wins.

There is a certain feeling though, that the Reds went on their hottest streak when Joey was out, so he couldn’t have been that valuable. I think a lot of people feel that the hitters that stepped up during Votto’s absence were more important to the team, including by turns Todd Frazier and Ryan Ludwick among others. But let me show you something.

This takes a bit of explanation – but I divided the season into 16 chronological segments (with a half segment at the end). The number of games in each segment varies between 9 and 11, because I based it on 2 Cueto starts each (because I intend to apply this to pitchers in a later segment). I then added up the wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average: basically how many runs your bat produced)  for each batter for each segment. Here’s how it looks:

Now, these segments are arbitrary, so it’s not that useful to make detailed arguments based on these numbers,but the overall picture is clear. While you can see that a variety of different players improved during different parts of Votto’s absence (and Ludwick and Frazier are certainly the most consistent of them), what’s way more obvious is the way Votto carried the team in the month and a half before his injury.

Look at that black line! For four segments (~40 games), Votto is producing about as many runs as the rest of the lineup put together. If you want to look at one man who is carrying the team over a period of time, it is obviously Joey who kept the Reds in the race in the first half. In late June, the Reds were approximately 7-8 games over .500, and led the NL Central by one game. Without Joey, we’re not there.

P.S. I’ve included the definition of the segments and the numbers version of the graph, with the most valuable hitter for the segment after the cut.

» Continue reading “2012 Most Valuable Reds Hitter: Just Who Carried Who?”

Can someone photo shop this dude into a shirt that says “Free Mustache Rides”?

You may think that any ‘Baseball Hotties exhibit’ exists only in my mind, but no, there is a real exhibit, and it’s in the Louisville Slugger Museum, which means it’s within easy traveling distance of many Reds fans. (To be fair, there is a much more extensive Baseball Hotties exhibit which I curate in my strange little head.)

So, this may seem like it’s extremely silly, but hey, I’m guessing the seasonal exhibits at the Louisville Slugger’s aren’t always home runs. On the other hand, it’s not clear that this ‘exhibit’ has anything to it other than some large photographs of hot baseball players. On the other, other hand, a life-sized cutout of Joey Votto standing in a cornfield under a banner that says ‘Field of Dreamboats’ is probably worth seeing, at least from my perspective.

There’s actually also a ‘formal’ Hottie Hall of Fame, which currently holds seven members, including King Kelly, a former Cincinnati Red. Though Kelly is probably better known for his later years with the White Stockings or the Beaneaters, Kelly started his career in Cincinnati in 1879, and played for the Reds for two seasons.

The exhibit also plans on adding three more members for an ‘inaugural class’ of ten players – these three are up for voting now. Current and former Reds on the ballot include Barry Larkin, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Johnny Bench, Josh Hamilton, and Ken Griffey Jr. Right now, both Votto and Phillips are in the top three. But through some bizarre internet shenanigans (I’m sure), A.J. Pierzynski is leading with over twice the votes of Votto. That just cannot stand.

P.S. You can vote unlimited times, and I just started in a write-in campaign for Ryan Hanigan.

Arroyo, Phillips, and Rolen with their 2010 Gold Glove Awards (Photo by Matthew D. Britt/Flickr)

The Gold Glove finalists were announced yesterday, with the winners to be announced tonight. As Mark Sheldon reports, six Reds, the most of any team, are finalists this year: Arroyo, Bruce, Cozart, Phillips, Stubbs, and Votto.Phillips, Votto, and Arroyo are all previous Gold Glove winners, which is always a leg up, but I think most of the finalist-Reds have a fairly small chance of winning the award itself. Incidentally, the most GG awards on one team is four, which has been fairly often. Here’s the list, in the form of a sporcle quiz. On the list are four consecutive Big Red Machine teams, so, while unlikely, a big gold glove haul team would be an excellent return to form for the modern-day Reds.

By the numbers, UZR specifically, Joey Votto is the only one who was actually the most valuable defender in the NL at his position. However, I think Joey is going to be disadvantaged by the fact that he only played a little more than half a season. Still, if you like advanced defensive metrics (at least over  any other indicator), Joey was worth more in his limited playing time than any other NL first baseman, even in a whole season, according to both UZR and DRS. I think he may have to combat the narrative power of Adam LaRoche, who played a full season with good defense, and was a pretty big part in leading the Nationals to the playoffs.

Brandon Phillips probably has the best chance, with 3 Gold Gloves under his belt already. His biggest challenge is probably Darwin Barney. Barney may have the perfect storm of fielding attributes. His UZR and DRS numbers are sky high this year, and even though defensive metrics are not particularly reliable in a 1 season sample (and he was only a little above average last season), that will probably sway some people. Plus, he had that whole error-less innings streak, which probably caught the attention of the more traditional voters. On the other hand, Barney was a terrible hitter on a terrible team, whereas Brandon was a decent hitter on a very strong team, which another trend in Gold Glove voting.

 Zack Cozart, I think, might also have a decent chance. He’s got good UZR numbers, though he lags well behind Clint Barmes of the Pirates, and Brandon Crawford, who flashed the leather to great effect while winning the World Series – though they all have about the same Defensive Runs Scored. But, ah, neither of those two made the ‘finals’ , which includes Reyes, Desmond, and Rollins. Cozart has better numbers than any of those guy, but I don’t think there’s a clear favorite here at all.

As I’ve said before, I would be shocked if anyone but Mark Buehrle won the Pitcher’s Gold Glove this year. Seems like he deserves it too, as his DRS (there’s no UZR listed for pitchers), is well above anyone else’s – and based on number of plays and controlling baserunners, he just looks like a superlative defender (for a pitcher). My guess is that Bronson Arroyo‘s finalist appellation, is as much to recognize that he is a previous GG winner as anything else.

Bruce and Stubbs probably both have low chances. Neither of them have particularly excellent UZR/DRS/fielding % numbers. Mostly, it’s nice to have a little bit of recognition for Drew Stubbs‘ fantastic range, and Jay Bruce‘s powerful arm. It might be fun to see whether the whole Braves outfield will go ahead and get the award, though – Bourn, Prado, and Heyward were all spectacular.

As far as snubs, which I love to complain about, I could wish that Hanigan and Cueto got some recognition. Hanigan’s got excellent defensive skills, all across the spectrum of catching responsibilities. As much as I hate to admit it, Molina probably will, and deserves to win, but it would be nice to have Hanigan’s name up there in consideration. I imagine Hanigan’s comparatively limited playing time has something to do with it. Cueto, of course, also has excellent defensive numbers. He makes as many plays as anyone who isn’t Mark Buehrle, and he’s got the best right-handed pickoff move in the MLB, hands down. On the other hand, he does make more errors, than say, Bronson. But, as with all fielding positions, that’s partially related to making more plays. Cueto was involved with 16 more successful outs than Bronson, and make five more errors. Again though, these are small issues, as the likely winners of these awards probably deserve them.

EDIT: So, I apologize for the first draft of this, which happened when I had no internet, and apparently, thought it was two years ago. I’ve made things marginally less dumb now.

Dear TNT and the Makers of Law & Order:

Tonight, I turned on the television to TNT, which I assume is short for “Turner Network Tnetennba”, to watch one of my favorite shows, Law  & Order. I was highly disappointed by what I saw.

Tonight’s episode “Reds vs. Giants” was the worst episode of Law and Order that I have ever seen in my life.

For one, I recognized right away that it was one of those gimmick episodes that tries to cross-promote shows on the same network by switching casts of characters. I have no idea what television program these characters were supposedly from, but this was obviously a terrible idea. Clearly, these characters were from a sports-based show, which does not mesh well with Law and Order’s procedural format, and moreover, they were ludicrous. The handsome, soft-spoken, good-at-everything Canadian, Joey Votto? What’s the point of a character who never makes a single mistake and is better than everyone at everything in the world? If you want a character to be relatable, don’t make him go 3-4 with two runs scored. Or the friendly, easy-going Ryan Ludwick. A guy going 2-3 with a HR is just too much skill for a convincing TV character.

Second of all, there was no conflict to this story. It was obvious from the very beginning that lead prosecutor Bronson Arroyo would give all those Giants fellas what they deserved. Where’s the fun in the story if one side only gets two hits, and is completely shut down by the opposition? It was easy to root for Arroyo, given his background, and his flowing, blond mane, and his double-ear-beflapped helmet, but it’s really only fulfilling if we get to see him develop and overcome adversity for even a little bit. There was no adversity here! Just a seven inning postseason outing with only 2 baserunners!

Lastly, the right fielding character, Hunter Pence? That beard should not be allowed on television.

I really hope that this episode of Law & Order is never aired on TNT again. Thank you for your time

Sincerely,

A Concerned Fan

P.S. Oh, gods of baseball karma, please don’t take this too seriously. It is clearly satire. Amen.