(Photo by Chris Staley/Flickr)

Though the Reds and Ludwick have been exchanging numbers for a few days now, Jon Heyman of ESPN first reported on Friday night that they had signed an official deal, and that it was worth $15 million over two years this morning, with an option year (Fay reports that it’s done pending a physical on Monday). Having Ludwick firmly in the fold solidifies the Reds plans for 2013, and for a pretty reasonable rate, at that.

I admit that last year, I was none too excited about the prospect of Ryan Ludwick, but he made me eat crow, becoming an important part of the lineup. His .373 wOBA says he was the second best hitter on the team – and the best right-handed batter. His defense, of course, is probably sub-par, but we easily got far more value from Ryan Ludwick that we paid him in salary, with the 2.8 WAR he put up. If he can keep up that performance level, it’s definitely a great deal for the Reds, but that’s still a big if.

Yes, I’ve turned around on Ryan Ludwick, but that doesn’t mean I’m not concerned about what he’ll do next year. It’s hard to read a player history like Ludwick’s. He’s had one really spectacular year. He’s had decent years. He’s had terrible years. He may have really suffered from playing in pitcher-friendly PetCo Park. Certainly, he’s unlikely to significantly improve on his 2012 season; 2012 was his second best season ever, and he’s not quite as young as he used to be.

The Bill James projection, for example,  is not kind to Ludwick. But it’s no surprise that projection systems don’t like a 35 year old outfielder with some pretty rough years between 2009 and 2011.

On the other hand, I think there are some positive signs for Ludwick a season like 2012, or at least kind of close to it. He was even better than his season numbers when he started regularly in June, July, and August. He had an average BABIP at .299, so he probably wasn’t ‘just’ lucky – and that BABIP is in the range of his historical norms. His BB and K rates were also very similar to what he’s done in the past. Where he really excelled compared to every other year of his career that wasn’t 2008 was when it came to slugging. His 26 homers were the second most on the Reds, and the second most in his career. But that’s very easily explained by the fact that he’s now in the most homer-friendly park of his career.

You can look at the map of his home run landing spots with an overlay of GABP’s dimensions here. On one level, Ryan’s clearly benefitting from hitting at GAPB. On the other hand, our ballpark isn’t going anywhere. Plus, Ryan still had 9 ‘no doubter’ homers – good for 5th best in the NL. He also hit the longest home run in Great American in 2012  - this beauty at 469 ft true distance. This all gives me a feeling that Ludwick can definitely kinda-maybe-almost maintain his 2012 power levels in 2013.

Then, you add in the clubhouse chemistry factor. I’ve always been skeptical on the value of chemistry for a single player, over, say being good at hitting and fielding, but as far as the intangibles go – I think Ludwick’s got a lot of value there, comparatively, at least. So, overall, the Reds probably have a pretty dang good deal on their hands.

Just when you think Jocketty is done, we hear news that the Reds front office has been in contact with Roy Oswalt’s agent. Now, at this point, you have to assume that Oswalt is an outside chance.  The dreaded Cardinals, along with the Rangers, are apparently Oswalt’s top choices, and the RedSox, with a more flexible payroll are also interested in Roy-O’s services. Still, I wouldn’t have necessarily though the Reds had a chance to land Latos, or sign Madson before it happened, so don’t count Walt out quite yet. We’d need to move salary around to get the deal done, for sure. Jocketty’s been creative about this, but everyone’s already signed this season, and quite a few players have already deferred salary. I would put our chances as low, but not ignorable.

Of course, signing Roy Oswalt raises more questions than it answers. Now, I would say that Oswalt represents almost a definite upgrade over Arroyo and Bailey (short an amazing rebound by Arroyo and an amazing breakthrough by Bailey), and is a pretty good bet to be better than Leake as well, honestly. It’s also not out of the question of him being better than Cueto or Latos when all is said and done. At this point, Oswalt seems like an elder statesman of the NL Central, but 2012 will be his age 34 season: certainly there’s a risk of him declining, as he’s pitched about league average, which a few injury issues in 2 of the last 3 seasons, but he’s also younger than Bronson Arroyo.

It’s tough to say who you want to toss out of the starting lineup. Mike Leake is the only guy with options, but he’s got a decent chance to be a pretty good starter this season. Homer and Bronson we don’t have the option of sending to AAA, so it’s the bullpen, or DFA for them. Arroyo’s making the most money, and additionally, all of his value at this point is from his durability – if you have him up there for 60 innings, it’s pointless. Homer might be marginally useful in the bullpen, but the bullpen is honestly looking pretty good. Do you want Arredondo, or Bailey trying to figure out how to adjust to relief pitching? The idea of having Aroldis Chapman at the major league level right out of the gate this April only further complicates the situation.

However, this may be a non-issue. The chances are Oswalt becoming a Red this spring aren’t great. And remember that last year, we left spring training with not one, but two starters on the DL last season – what I learned from doing those catching diagrams for about 2/3 of MLB teams is that no one but the freaking Rangers gets through the season without a pretty serious rotation issue. Oswalt definitely makes the rotation better, but at what price? In any case, I’m glad I’m not the one making the choices.

Well, it’s been a few more days, and we’re a little bit closer to finishing up.  I want to look at all the things we needed to do, or at least someone might think we needed to work on this offseason.

1. Pitching

• Although there’s been a lot of concern, complaints, and outright caterwaulin’ about the Reds need for new bats, I’ve  been of the opinion that pitching was going to be easier to improve with less money. Certainly, this is where Walt spent the bulk of his time and effort

• Major League moves: Trade for Latos, trade for Marshall, sign Madson
• Depth moves: Signing Brackman, Francis, Zavada, Mahay, Kanekoa Texeira, Josh Judy

» Continue reading “Reds End-Of-Off-Season Checklist.”

Various rumors are linking the Reds to the Cubs’ lefty reliever Sean Marshall, especially involving Travis Wood. Today though is the first real rumor of a done deal, as Bruce Levine at ESPNChicago is reporting that we’re getting Marshall for Wood plus two minor leaguers.

Marshall is 29, and quite good; in fact, by WAR, he’s the been the best lefty reliever out there for two straight years. Also, he plays in a hitter’s park in our division, so you know we’re not going to suffer from park/league issues. He has good peripherals, and it doesn’t appear that he’s had injury issues since switching to the bullpen fulltime. By comparison, Wood is not-very-good lefty starter – but he also has some moderately signficant upside, as he’ll be only 25 this season.

Sean Marshall is in his last year of team control and is owed 3.1 million in 2012. That’s more than we paid Arthur Rhodes, but less than we paid David Weathers, and (obviously) a lot less than we paid, or may still be looking to pay Cordero. Wood, who has only one year of service time, will be owed $422, 500 in 2012. Essentially, that eats the money we gained in the Latos trade – which may make the Cordero signing less likely.

I don’t hate this trade, depending, of course, on who the minor leaguers are. Did we really need a great lefty reliever? Meh. Is Wood a huge loss? Meh. If I were making the decisions, I might rather go in on the season with better rotation depth, given the injury histories on some of our starters, but I’m not, and that’s probably a good thing. If the two minor leaguers are Dave Sappelt and Billy Hamilton, I would have an issue, but south of that, I’m pretty ambivalent. Essentially, I get that Walt is going all-in on 2012, and I’m trying to think positive, with that in mind.

There’s also the fact that Marshall allowed only 2 runs to the non-Reds NL Central in 30 1/3 innings. That’s… pretty good, I guess.

We need a starting pitcher. Pretty much every Reds fan knows it. We allowed more runs

Like... maybe this guy, but 100 years younger?

than either the Brewers AND the Cardinals last season – and the Cardinals get Wainwright back. I know it’s still early. We’ve got three months before Ps and Cs report to spring training, but I’m already starting to feel desperate. Of course, the Reds could never have put up the money for CJ Wilson, and there’s a pretty long list of reasons that Yu Darvish is a bad fit for the Reds. On the other hand, Cahill would have been a nice addition. (We don’t REALLY need an ace, Cueto’s very good when he’s healthy – but an actual solid number 2 next year would be um…. good.)

But desperation-inspired craziness is already setting in. When I saw that D-train is signing with the Phillies, I was irrationally upset. I mean, D-train is a favorite of mine because he seems like a great guy – and we probably could have afforded the $1 million contract – but he’s not what we really need. He’d be a pretty good bullpen lefty or an bottom of the rotation guy – and we have those. And Andrew Brackman does not count.

I never really got that wish for destiny or whatever to bring you your soulmate, but these days, I can’t help but dreaming about that perfect pitcher to really cement the 2012 Reds as contenders. I know that pitcher isn’t out there – and anyone who comes close is unaffordable, but a girl can dream, can’t she?

Well, as long as it’s in song, right?

(Bung, bung, bung, bung, bung, bung, bung, bung, bung, bung, bung bung)

Mr. Sandman, bring us an ace

Make him the key to our pennant race

Give him a fastball that’s faster than sound

And tell him that his perfect team’s been found

 

Sandman, our rotation is rough

We’ll take anyone if he’s got the stuff

Please take pity on our team

Mr. Sandman, bring us a dream

 

Mr. Sandman, bring us a dream

Give him a windup like they’ve never seen

Give him control like Maddux or Cliff Lee

And we’ll love him unconditionally

 

 Mr. Sandman, bring us an ace

Before our season becomes a disgrace

Whether from Texas, Havana, or Tokyo

If he’s got a decent groundball ratio

 

Sandman, someone to start

A plus-plus sinker would steal all our hearts

So please turn on your magic beam

Mr. Sandman, bring us please, please, please

Mr. Sandman, bring us a dream.

I don’t know exactly a magic beam finds perfect boyfriends, but I hope it also works for baseball players.

Does it seem to you that the Reds have been a bit… quiet in terms of a little hot stove action? Really, there’s been something of a profound lack thereof. That’s not to say there haven’t been any rumors involving ours truly, but we haven’t been in on the big free agent kerfluffles, and we haven’t really heard of any rumors I would call serious.

Please Walt, don't be shy! Trade for some crap!

I suppose that’s not a wholly bad thing. I would say that some of the small market teams making splashes aren’t really helping themselves very much. It’s one thing to have a brand spanking new enormous payroll, a la the Marlins, but we certainly don’t, so it’s good for us to be a bit circumspect in our approach. If you don’t sign any free agents, you don’t sign any terrible contracts. If you don’t make any trades, you don’t make any bad trades. But you also don’t make any good ones.  And without one, the Reds aren’t good enough to win. We need starting pitching, we need a left fielder. I wouldn’t say no to a closer if we could get a decent deal on one.

• We may be close to extending Brandon Phillips. We’re probably not signing Cordero
• Ramon Hernandez is gone, and Ryan Hanigan is here to stay, probably. At least for now.
• We might be interested in some A’s pitchers – like starter Gio Gonzalez or reliever Andrew Bailey. At this point, though, the D-backs look like they’ve zeroed in on Gonzalez.
• We’re in on free agent Octavio Dotel, who would like to return to the Cards next season, but could be pried away with a two-year deal. (But if the Mets, Tigers, and Brewers are also in on it – it could be that the water will be a little too hot for an older reliever like Dotel)
• Free agent Josh Willingham may be in our left field future, but more recent rumors favor the Rays.
• The Rays like Alonso, though if they sign Willingham, they may start to be a lot less interested

Don't goooooooo. Photo By BubbaFan.

I love Ryan Hanigan. I do not want him to leave. On the other hand, if a team is actively looking at him, that might mean that he has enough trade value right now that it is essential that we sell. According to rumors, the Angels are interested in Hanigan to, evidently, back up or take over for Hank Conger, the Angels best catching prospect. In that case, Ken Rosenthal, who reported the rumor, suggested that we might re-sign Ramon Hernandez to tandem with Mesoraco in 2012 – as, appropriately, Devin is the one piece of the puzzle the others need to fall in around.

Hernandez will probably be more expensive option – he’s had some really good seasons with the Reds. He’s not a super-star, but few free agent catchers are. He’s also more of a short term option. Hanigan is signed (relatively cheap) through 2013, and will probably get in one multi-year contract after that. At 36, it’s hard to tell what role Hernandez will play in the catching picture, but it would probably be short term. In addition, we’d need a prospect from the Angels for Hanigan – a raw, moderately high ceiling guy seems likely, as Hanigan’s not worth enough to merit a true top prospect.  Both catchers are sound, but Hanigan slots more neatly into a backup role. It’s important to sell high, but the team’s future has to be more important.

On the other hand, we may have the next Ryan Hanigan already in the system. It’s a little pipe-dream-y, but I really liked James Skelton when he was with the Tigers – as a discipline-strong, power-weak, 22 year old catching prospect. He was still never a very highly rated guy, but his star has fallen since then. This last year, he only OPS’d .706 between AA and AAA, as a 25 year old. But that’s been in limited playing time, over both this year and last – perhaps he’s resolving an injury issue? (It wouldn’t be that surprising to me – I mean, how many 165 lb catchers do you see in professional baseball?) In any case, smart money is not on Skelton gracing the Reds major league roster – but you never know. Ryan Hanigan had some rough years in the minor as well.