Photo by phillymads63

EDIT: It’s official. Morosi confirmed, and Sheldon confirmed it’s a 1 year, 10 million dollar deal. That’s a lot of money. If you look at Red Reporter’s excellent payroll projection, that definitely puts us over 2011′s payroll mark. Perhaps Jocketty talked Castellini around – hey, if we win the world series, our revenue probably WILL go up.

Although almost no talk has linked Madson to the Reds until today, John Heyman of CBSSports is reporting that the Reds and Madson (previously with the Phillies)  have come to an agreement, for one year. Now, Madson is a Boras client, so it bears closer scrutiny, especially since Fay was saying a few hours ago that his source downplayed our interaction with Madson. However, it seems unlikely that Heyman would report a deal when there was none (as opposed to “talks” about Jair Jurrjens), and his relationship with Boras would explain why he has the scoop.

This move strongly solidifies the bullpen, and closes down all the closer questions. (Additionally, now that Cordero will probably sign elsewhere, we’ll get draft picks). While we don’t know how much the one year deal is for, we are pretty sure that the Phillies offered him 4 years/40 million before signing Papelbon. The Red Sox traded for Andrew Bailey, and the Angels have pretty much shut down that option, so the lack of suitors has clearly brought down his price a little.

This will probably eats up the rest of the 2012 budget (as far as we know). Compared to the Cordero deal (4 years/46 mill). This is  better, as Madson is a little younger at the time of the deal (31 vs. 33), and has better stats from the last three seasons (lower ERA, lower WHIP, lower BB/9, but also lower K/9). And lucky, or not, Cordero was pretty good for us, although maybe not >10% of our payroll good.  A one-year deal is crazy good for the Reds  since we’re playing the WIN NOW game, and not bad for Madson, as he can hit the free agent market next year, when the demand may be higher – before he gets too old.

It definitely, though, eliminates the possibility of  eliminates all but the most trivial of more free agent signings (veteran SS, I’m looking at you). So probably no LF bat. It feels very odd to be so confident of the Reds pitching situating going into the season, and wondering if the offense is going to keep up though. I’m still not necessarily unhappy with the idea, but it’s still very, very foreign.

I’m a little surprised that we weren’t bidding with the Rangers, though. They’ve probably been distracted with the Darvish issue: if so, good timing on Jocketty’s part.

Metaphorically speaking, that is. Literally, it’s the first letter in “Collective Bargaining Agreement”, which is not that hard to find, honestly.

First of all, there’s a lot we still don’t know about the CBA, mostly it’s come through bits off twitter – and then funneled to me through mlbtraderumors. We’ll all get the final details on Tuesday when the agreement is announced.

The biggest issue for Cincinnati so far seems to be the change for free agent relievers (and for select position players – but we don’t know the details of that yet) - the signing team will no longer lose draft picks. That’s a big difference when it comes to CoCo. This makes it more favorable for another team to sign him. Actually, I guess this tends to increase the number of free agents switching teams – afterall, it’s much better for the Reds to sign an equivalent free agent to Cordero for the same amount of money than to sign with Cordero, because now we get draft picks. Now, imagine this happening everywhere around the league – sort of a proliferation of draft picks, which in turn, lessen the value of everyone’s draft picks. The actual consequences of this process might change a little, as the other big piece of news is that starting next season – Type A designation will no longer be determined by ELIAS rankings, but instead the value of “qualified offers”. And, of course, all we know for sure is that applies to relievers, and probably not to guys like Albert Pujols, so, of course, it could be a very small effect.

It’s also possible that this may affect Ramon Hernandez, the Reds’ other type A free agent, but it’s not for sure.

Another big issue is expanding the percentage of players with between two and three years of service time (and who have at least 86 days of service time in the last season) that qualify for super-two arbitration from 17% to 22%. So the number of super-twos next year will still depend on the number of players who make up the pool, but for instance, for this season, there were 19 super-two players, including our own Jose Arredondo, who ranged from having 2.171 years of service time (1 day short of three years) to 2.147 years. Under the new rule, 25 players would have qualified, total.  Right now the Reds have several players with between 2.147 and 1.000 years of service time.

• Drew Stubbs, 2.047
• Mike Leake, 2.000

These are already our definite arbs for next year.  Stubbs will probably have 3 or more years of service time after next season. Mike Leake is almost a lock to qualify either as a normal first year arb, or as a super two.

There have been quite a few little things going on, but nothing major in terms of leaks when it comes to negotiations.

• A rumor circulated from a Japanese source that former Red Jeremy Hermida was headed for the Yomiuri Giants. Tim Dierkes of mlbtraderumors indicated Hermida’s more likely to stay stateside.

• We signed Corky Miller to a minor league deal. Hurrah! 

• We also picked up Daryl Jones, who was a minor leaguer with the Cardinals. A 3rd round 2005 draft pick, Jones still has some upside, but at 24, hasn’t yet delivered on his potential. More importantly, his name is Daryl, which we needed to fill the absence left by Daryl Thompson and Daryl Harang. Thankfully, Walt Jocketty isn’t crazy enough to let us face the 2012 season without a Daryl – which would have been the first time since 2005.

• MLBTR also thinks we’re unlikely to offer arb to Francisco Cordero.

• ESPN’s Jayson Stark says that CBA talks are going well – and we could even see an agreement this week. Internet folk wisdom and common sense indicate that some GMs might be unwilling to finalize big contracts or trades until the CBA is done.

Goodbye, sweet prince

Additionally, Jared Burton and Daryl Thompson were outrighted off the 40-man roster, and Matt Maloney was picked up off waivers by Minnesota. Best of luck to Matt – it seems like the Twins always have a few random non-prospects come out and pitch 200 innings with a 4.00-ish ERA, so here’s hoping that’s you, in 2012.

Meanwhile, the Reds have made their decision quickly on the identical $12 million 2012 options for Phillips and Cordero. Phillips will remain (presumably) the Reds 2B in 2012, while Cordero will become a type-A free agent, so we could offer him arbitration and either get him for a new one-year deal, or pick up the draft picks if he goes to another team.

None of this is terrible surprising, Phillips is younger than Coco, and, isn’t a pitcher. Moreover, BP’s really done a good job promoting himself as a face of this franchise. (Whether the franchise is interested in having him as THE face of the franchise is another matter.) Between angry Cardinal fights and really fantastic fan interaction, I’m sure your average Reds fan knows more about Phillips’ off-field antics than any other Red’s.

Phillips actually finished this season 6.0 wins above replacement – which would make him worth far more than the $12 million option. It’s doubtful he’ll do so well next year – as he benefitted from an uptick in BABIP this season, and had an above-career-norm number for that ever unreliable UZR. Still, the Reds have essentially zero internal options for second base in 2012, and I would venture to say that BP’s the most bang for the buck that the Reds are likely to get. Especially without spending the prospects that we should probably be trying to sell for a SP or LF bat.

Cordero, meanwhile, will get 1 million buyout, and gets to try his luck on the free agent market. While I suspect that he was neither as good as his 2.54 ERA or as bad as his 4.14 xFIP this season, it’s a pretty dubious choice to pay $12 million for anyone who throws about 70 innings a year. We also have lots of relief pitchers who will make less than a tenth of that, and can be at least half as good.

Things looked pretty good, going into the bottom of the ninth in Wrigley tonight. Rodrigo Lopez vs. Mike Leake may not be what you think of as a pitcher’s duel, but that’s what the scorecard tended to show. The Reds didn’t hit terribly – but only eked out 2 runs from the four Cubs pitchers appearing in the first nine innings. On the other hand, Mike Leake was rolling – 1 hit, no runs through eight, and less than 80 pitches with just the ninth to go. Unfortunately, with two outs, the Cubs’ short stop Starlin Castro eked out a single, and Bryan “The Hair” LaHair drove him in with a home run.

The Reds then ran into a little trouble in the bottom of the tenth. After Bill Bray retired a single batter, Masset came in – and gave up a single, a walk, and then another single to load the bases, before Sam LeCure shut it down by inducing a bases-loaded double play from Jeff Baker.

Dusty… was extremely fond of making pitching changes tonight. After Leake left the game, feeling blessed with an embarrassment of bullpen riches, Dusty went through a quick array of five guys – none of them staying in for as much as an inning, until Aroldis Chapman came in to put away four in a row in the 11th and 12th. Amazingly, none of these guys allowed a run – really helped by a timely caught stealing by Ryan Hanigan.

And that was good enough,  as Dave Sappelt (making a strong case tonight – inasmuch as you can make a strong case in a night’s worth of play – for 2012 left fielder) belted a double, Joey drove him in with another, and Miguel Cairo got a second run in with a single. After that, Dusty made a decision to stick with his defense for the ninth – neglecting to pinch hit for Paul Janish with two outs. Both Renteria and Ramon Hernandez were available, but Dusty allowed Janish to fly out on his own, relying on our expensive closer to get us out with a win.  Cordero did so in fine fashion, (It helped maybe a teeny bit that the Cubs had run out of bench-hitters like, two innings ago), and earned the win, leading the Reds to their 10th extra innings win of the season.

It was also CoCo’s 321st save, which ties him for 13th all time with Jose Mesa! Congratulations!