Arroyo, Phillips, and Rolen with their 2010 Gold Glove Awards (Photo by Matthew D. Britt/Flickr)

The Gold Glove finalists were announced yesterday, with the winners to be announced tonight. As Mark Sheldon reports, six Reds, the most of any team, are finalists this year: Arroyo, Bruce, Cozart, Phillips, Stubbs, and Votto.Phillips, Votto, and Arroyo are all previous Gold Glove winners, which is always a leg up, but I think most of the finalist-Reds have a fairly small chance of winning the award itself. Incidentally, the most GG awards on one team is four, which has been fairly often. Here’s the list, in the form of a sporcle quiz. On the list are four consecutive Big Red Machine teams, so, while unlikely, a big gold glove haul team would be an excellent return to form for the modern-day Reds.

By the numbers, UZR specifically, Joey Votto is the only one who was actually the most valuable defender in the NL at his position. However, I think Joey is going to be disadvantaged by the fact that he only played a little more than half a season. Still, if you like advanced defensive metrics (at least over  any other indicator), Joey was worth more in his limited playing time than any other NL first baseman, even in a whole season, according to both UZR and DRS. I think he may have to combat the narrative power of Adam LaRoche, who played a full season with good defense, and was a pretty big part in leading the Nationals to the playoffs.

Brandon Phillips probably has the best chance, with 3 Gold Gloves under his belt already. His biggest challenge is probably Darwin Barney. Barney may have the perfect storm of fielding attributes. His UZR and DRS numbers are sky high this year, and even though defensive metrics are not particularly reliable in a 1 season sample (and he was only a little above average last season), that will probably sway some people. Plus, he had that whole error-less innings streak, which probably caught the attention of the more traditional voters. On the other hand, Barney was a terrible hitter on a terrible team, whereas Brandon was a decent hitter on a very strong team, which another trend in Gold Glove voting.

 Zack Cozart, I think, might also have a decent chance. He’s got good UZR numbers, though he lags well behind Clint Barmes of the Pirates, and Brandon Crawford, who flashed the leather to great effect while winning the World Series – though they all have about the same Defensive Runs Scored. But, ah, neither of those two made the ‘finals’ , which includes Reyes, Desmond, and Rollins. Cozart has better numbers than any of those guy, but I don’t think there’s a clear favorite here at all.

As I’ve said before, I would be shocked if anyone but Mark Buehrle won the Pitcher’s Gold Glove this year. Seems like he deserves it too, as his DRS (there’s no UZR listed for pitchers), is well above anyone else’s – and based on number of plays and controlling baserunners, he just looks like a superlative defender (for a pitcher). My guess is that Bronson Arroyo‘s finalist appellation, is as much to recognize that he is a previous GG winner as anything else.

Bruce and Stubbs probably both have low chances. Neither of them have particularly excellent UZR/DRS/fielding % numbers. Mostly, it’s nice to have a little bit of recognition for Drew Stubbs‘ fantastic range, and Jay Bruce‘s powerful arm. It might be fun to see whether the whole Braves outfield will go ahead and get the award, though – Bourn, Prado, and Heyward were all spectacular.

As far as snubs, which I love to complain about, I could wish that Hanigan and Cueto got some recognition. Hanigan’s got excellent defensive skills, all across the spectrum of catching responsibilities. As much as I hate to admit it, Molina probably will, and deserves to win, but it would be nice to have Hanigan’s name up there in consideration. I imagine Hanigan’s comparatively limited playing time has something to do with it. Cueto, of course, also has excellent defensive numbers. He makes as many plays as anyone who isn’t Mark Buehrle, and he’s got the best right-handed pickoff move in the MLB, hands down. On the other hand, he does make more errors, than say, Bronson. But, as with all fielding positions, that’s partially related to making more plays. Cueto was involved with 16 more successful outs than Bronson, and make five more errors. Again though, these are small issues, as the likely winners of these awards probably deserve them.

EDIT: So, I apologize for the first draft of this, which happened when I had no internet, and apparently, thought it was two years ago. I’ve made things marginally less dumb now.

Yaaay, another post where I make up ludicrous stories!

So… that happened.

If you just returned to life/awakened from  coma/got back from an uninhabited Pacific Island, I’m probably not the best person to explain to you the utter ridiculousness that happened during the NL Wild Card game tonight, and I’m sure you can google another source, lickety-split. Suffice to say, it was ridiculous, and it has seriously affected my perspective on reality. IS this the real life? (Is this just fantasy?)

Before this, I had thought that the indignities that I could suffer as Reds fan were pretty much bottomed out. After all, last year. (Yeah, that’s it. Last year.) Even though Matt Cain’s a good as bet to you-know-what, I feel like the limit of ludicrosity of what could happen during the playoffs just got upped. The Reds, thankfully, are not playing in a one-game do-or-die situation, but perhaps more games will just mean more time for crazy shit to happen.

So, here’s my top seven things that I didn’t think could possibly happen to the Reds during the NLDS, but now I’m not so sure.

1. Drew Stubbs hits a a clutch RBI double, that will be successfully overturned on the pine tar rule.  (IT’S FUNNY CUZ DREW STUBBS CAN’T HIT WITH RUNNERS ON BASE)

2. Brandon Phillips attempts to cartwheel in the middle of turning a double play. He’ll make it, but the umpires will cite him for… uh… being too… something or other.

3. A Kraken.

4. Through a terrible, inexcusable umpiring gaffe, Joey Votto makes an out.

5. The Reds get no-hit… by Melky Cabrera

6. Skip Schumaker disguises himself as Mark Berry, and waves home Ryan Hanigan from 2nd base on a single to left field.

7. An umpire calls the infield fly rule on a ball that was 30 feet in the outfield grass, and late enough so that the ball had almost hit the ground, with one out and runners on first and third, reducing our win probability by 13% in a single call. This occurs in a decisive game, and the Reds will be at home, leading a few of the home fans to act out, further delaying the game and complicating the issue. By the time the game ends, everyone is pretty sure the protest will be rejected, but the status of both teams remains somewhat unresolved for an hour after the game ends.

…nah, that couldn’t happen.

Photo by Keith Allison/Flickr

Ok, so it wasn’t that bad a showing from the 2012 NL Central Champions. Bronson Arroyo was decidedly un-brilliant, giving up three runs in five innings, starting with a solo home-run by the Cardinals pitcher Jaime Garcia, the second of his career. But BA really wasn’t all that bad, especially considering the peripherals. 6 hits, 1 walk, and 6 strikeouts isn’t great, but the game remained close into the ninth inning.

Alfredo Simon in the sixth and seventh innings was worse, allowing another run. He just pitched poorly, allowing 3 hits and walking 2 – I’m really not looking forward to seeing him anytime in the playoffs. Of course, I know that he really hasn’t been that bad this season, especially when you compare his numbers with, say, Jose Arredondo. I guess it’s good that we’re using this time to get some of our other bullpen options some more rest. J.J. Hoover had an easy, uneventful inning in the 8th. I know Hoover has control problems of his own, and doesn’t have Arredondo’s experience, but I’d still almost have Hoover on the playoff roster.

Offensively, two runs scored is obviously slightly pathetic, but it wasn’t so terrible as it sounds. The worst performances were turned in by Joey Votto, who no one should be worried about, and Ryan Ludwick, who is probably still a little rusty. And hey, Drew Stubbs actually got 2 hits! Assuming a three game hot streak doesn’t convince the management to bat him second again in the post-season (maybe a bad assumption to make), we can all be happy about that, right? Probably my least favorite part of the night was Jay Bruce getting caught stealing.  I mean, sure, the numbers say it’s only the third time he’s been caught stealing this season, but my gut says that he’s been a horrible baserunner. Also saying that, baseball reference’s tracking of outs made on the basepaths – where Bruce leads the team with 9. (But that’s not much worse than Votto’s 8, or Rolen’s 7.)

Mostly, it’s hard to care too much at this point. Yes, we all hate the Cardinals with the fire of one billion suns, but we’re also the division winners easily, while the Cards, at best, get to try their luck in the wild card. Right now, the Dodgers are leading by one run, and a win will keep their wild card chances alive, but the Cardinals’ magic number is down to one. Would I like the Dodgers to win their next two, while the Reds take the final two games to eliminate St. Louis? A little. Ok, maybe a lot. But the Reds have nothing to play for, and the Cards have everything. We’re probably just as well off trying to wear down the pitching, to try and add a little stress their playoff schedule.

This segment is from the third pitch of the plate appearance. Yikes, Drew. Yikes.

So, here it goes with Drew Stubbs. It’s a little hard to compare with the Ryan Hanigan chart (here), just because Stubbs has over 100 more PA than Hanigan. Also, he’s got significantly more P/PA (as he has a similarly low swing % to Hanigan, but a ludicrously lower contact rate), so there’s just more pitches to chart.

I don’t think this turned out as different from Hanigan’s as I thought – mostly because both Hanigan and Stubbs boast very low swing rates – Stubbs does have a reasonably respectable walk rate, though it’s (rightfully) overshadowed by all the strikeouts.

I think the craziest part is when Stubbs has two strikes. The example to the right is only about 100 plate appearances, so it’s a bit of a small sample size. But if I wanted to vastly overreach the power of this data, I might conclude that down 0-2, Stubbs is better off leaving the bat on his shoulders. Part of the problem is that Stubbs’s BABIP this year, which reduces the value we’re getting from the balls he manages to put in play at all. It’s not really too low compared to the league, but perhaps belies his baserunning ability. For a guy with Drew’s speed, .291 may very well be unlucky.

Really though, Stubbs’s contact rate is pitcher-level, which is his always going to give him problems (though there are several better hitters with lower or similar contact rates). I feel like this makes a reasonably good argument to switch Hanigan and Stubbs in the lineup. Hanigan has the contact skills to deal with a pitcher throwing a lot of skills – and can spray them all across the (in)field, while in the 8-hole, Stubbs standing with the bat on his shoulder could be more valuable. Of course, there’s the baserunning issue to take into account, which probably is substantial.

I think it might be fun for the next chart to be Brandon Phillips, a free-swinger of the first order.

(click for larger image)

(Photo by Keith Allison/Flickr)

Or, “The Search For Frazier’s Playing Time”

Today marked the first day of Joey Votto’s return to the Reds lineup. It was like Christmas, Chanukkah, Festivus, and Ramadan all rolled into one. As expected, he was fantastic, though the outcome of the game was not so great. A lot of angst has been put into the the fate of Todd Frazier, with good reason. Since Votto’s injury, Frazier has slotted in most often at first base, while Rolen has gone back to manning third almost full time.

Both before and after the injury, Frazier has been excellent, which has been highlighted by the fact that his playing time nearly doubled after the Votto Injury Watershed. Here’s a look at the offense, before and after 7/15, which was the last game (before today) that Joey Votto appeared in.

That really highlights how important Todd Frazier become to the Reds, as the player with the most plate appearances, after Joey went on the DL.  Unfortunately, the numbers demonstrate how difficult it’s going to be to get Frazier on the lineup as much he deserves in the next month. Thought Frazier started in the Reds system as a shortstop, right now, it looks like he can essentially be trusted to play first, third, and maybe a little left field. However, we’ve got Mr. MVP back at first base now, and both Rolen(.894) and Ludwick (1.051)  have hit very well with Joey out.

Obviously, I think that Frazier should take on more of the starts at third base. We won’t get much improvement over the last 30 games from that, as Rolen has hit so well in Joey’s absence – but it will probably be beneficial going forward, as Rolen may be wearing down at the end of the season. (Though I’m pretty confident that Dusty won’t sit Rolen as often as I would. Meh, c’est la vie.) Slotting Frazier in at first is probably also a good idea, as Joey certainly doesn’t need to be playing seven games a week, straight from coming off injury.  It’s tempting to throw Frazier into left – but 1) Ludwick is hitting well, and 2) considering defense, Heisey is probably the better sub.

It’s frustrating that we can’t shift Frazier to take on some of the weaker spots in the lineup, but unless he’s learned to catch, or play center field, our options may be limited. It’s also a shame to think that the return of Votto is only going to provide marginal improvement to our offense. I mean, Joey is the god-king-emperor of all creation and all, but his return would be more dramatic if Votto was going to essentially replace 5 Miguel Cairo plate appearances every game.

(Photo by DavidMeyersPhotos on Flickr)

Ok, so, maybe it’s more like Bronson: 2; Coors Field: 3, because Arroyo has a slightly terrible history in Coors.

I have to admit, of the next few series, this game was on of the games I was most concerned about. Arroyo has been much better this year – and his HR/9 is back into line with his career norms – making last year’s 2.1 HR/9 seem like a terrible, terrible nightmare. Still, notwithstanding Coors deep fences, that atmosphere is no joke – and Bronson’s ERA in that ballpark was 8.84, over 18 innings in four starts.

It was sort of a not-so-old-timers game, as all our younglings were all but a  pile of 0-fer , while the over-30 crowd made the magic happen: Rolen, Ludwick, and Hanigan all had two hits.

Of the youngsters, Drew Stubbs probably had the least bad game – as he at least made a couple nifty defensive plays in the enormous centerfield at Coors. In fact, Stubbs was the only outfielder to record a putout in the first seven innings. But Cozart did get a hit in the ninth inning, and Xavier Paul got a single as a pinch hitter immediately before that.

Also, generous props to Alfredo Simon, who has gotten a bad rap after a rough first few outings, but had a great game today, recording 4 outs, and escaping two separate runners in scoring position problems – though neither of them were exactly of his making. And then of course, came the Aroldis Chapman experience. 8 wins in a row feels … nice.

Whoo. That was a good one, especially for the Reds player development department. Mike Leake (1st round, 2009) did a great job to quiet the newly vocal Mike-Leake-skeptics. Much like a Homer Bailey start, Leake wasn’t exactly ‘dominant’, but he allowed only 1 ER (out of 3 R) in 6 innings, and though he allowed 7 hits, only one of them was for extra bases – a double by Ike Davis. And that was more of a lucky shot, just down the first base line, but hit hard enough to get over into the corner. In fact, here’s a chart of where all the Mets’ balls in play fell – and none of them got much of anywhere – Leake certainly didn’t need the capacious Citi Field to help him keep it in the park tonight.

On the offensive end, Leake himself was 2-2 with a sac bunt. Perhaps Dusty should consider hitting him leadoff? His .603 OPS in his 139 career plate appearances  is pretty impressive. Todd Frazier(1st round, 2007)  did a lot of the rest of the work, driving in 3 of the Reds’ 6 runs, via two home runs – one of which was to straight center field, which, in Citi, is a ways out there, and the other of which mysteriously made its way past Lucas Duda at the right field wall.

But let’s not forget the contributions of  Zack Cozart (2nd Round, 2007), 1 for 5 with a double, Jay Bruce (1st round, 2005), who hit a pinch hit go ahead sac-fly RBI in the seventh inning before Frazier added the go ahead runs, and Drew Stubbs (1st round, 2006) was 2 for 5. Of course, we can never overlook Joey Vott0, who was 1 for 3 with a walk and a double, which just adds to his lead in both categories for all of baseball. 17 doubles with 36 games played roughly projects (haha, yes, yes) to 76 doubles for the season, which would, as unrealistic as it is to project these things, would  blow away the current single season record of 67, set in 1931. The modern record, held by Todd Helton in 2000, is slightly more achievable at 59.

Latos K'd 11, the Reds scored 5 runs. 11 times 5 = 55. Brilliant!(Image from BaseballBacks on Flickr)

Today was a pretty good game, all-in-all:

• It was a win
• It won us the series, which means it’s the fifth straight series we’ve either won or tied.
• It put us back above .500
• It was a shutout
• Latos struck out 11. While I was interested to find out that this doesn’t really measure on any record board for the Reds no matter the time period, it’s still impressive. I think only Cueto and Harang are very recent Reds pitchers to match or exceed that number
• The bullpen was badass. Hoover, Chapman and Simon combined for three scoreless innings with six Ks, no walks, and one hit. Our bullpen is awesome
• Stubbs proved me wrong (and we all know that deflating my ego can only be good for me) by being awesome – going 3-4, with a home run.
• Todd Frazier was also awesome – hopefully awesome enough to keep him on the roster.
• Jay Bruce extending his hitting streak. Wheeee!

Pretty much everything you could want, if you don’t count a couple of sketchy defensive plays. Still. Today was a good day.

THE HILLLLLLLS ARE ALIIIIIIIVE WITH THE SOUND OF GROUUUUUUNDBAAAAAAAALLLLS. (Photo by Keith Allison on Flickr)

It doesn’t quite fit the meter, and in any case, I can’t see Walt and Dusty wearing matching habits, but I think Drew Stubbs is starting to cause some Julie-Andrews-level frustration in the Reds fandom (given, that’s not so much a demerit  as a badge of pride occasionally). It’s not that he’s the team’s biggest problem right now, but he and Scott Rolen have the lowest OPS’s of all the current starters.

Scott Rolen, at least, is a problem that makes sense, logically. An infielder in his 30s who is struggling to produce at the plate isn’t a surprise, it’s a cliche. Stubbs on the other hand, is just 27, and should be entering the prime of his career. He should be improving, and so far, he was worse in 2011 than in 2010, and so far he’s been worse in 2012 than in 2011. He’s also too old to send away from the convent to AAA. At this point, you’d have to put him on waivers, risking him falling in love with a member of the Austrian nobility and running away to Vermont to escape the Nazis.

The well-worn, and well-justified, adage at this point in the season is ‘small sample size’, but when have I ever let that stop me?

» Continue reading “What Do You Do With A Problem Like Drew Stubbs?”

Tonight’s game was not fun, as losses pretty much never are, but it wasn’t quite up to the ‘heartbreaking’ levels of other losses. Nothing was surprising, no really outstanding performances were wasted, no ridiculously terrible performances were out there to be ridiculed.

I mean, yes, Leake’s six runs in three innings meltdown was pretty bad. But, really, Leake may just be  an saverage pitcher (which is fine), and average pitchers are going to have a couple outings like this every year – and at least it wasn’t an epic blowout – like Yovani Gallardo allowing 10 runs in 2 innings to the Cardinals tonight. It did feel worse in the ninth inning when Jay Bruce and Devin Mesoraco’s solo home runs brought us within 2, but I’m pretty confident that had we not been 4 runs behind, we wouldn’t have been facing Fernando Abad.

Ludwick and Rolen were also pretty bad, each going hitless. I’m getting closer to losing hope with both these guys, but at least it’s not at all surprising. Ludwick seems to get by with a clutch hit every now and then, just often enough to escape being entirely useless-seeming. And at this point Rolen is a big part of this team’s personality, and management loves his leadership and overall veteranocity. That would be fine if we got some offense out of left field.  Hey, I hear the Angels released Bobby Abreu?

In better news, Stubbs made up for a fielder’s-choice-picked-off combo by getting an actual hit and only striking out once, Bruce was pretty awesome, Frazier’s pinch-hit triple was bad-ass, and the bullpen was excellent. We haven’t seen a lot of J.J. Hoover, but I’ve got a feeling he’s going to be a pretty good return for Juan Francisco. Even much-maligned Alfredo Simon did quite a job mopping up after Mike Leake.

So now it’s up to the Reds to win the next two games to win their second series in a row, and come back to .500 on the year. The pitching matchups are Cueto vs.  Lucas Harrell and Mat Latos vs. Bud Norris.  That’s probably a solid advantage, and a good chance, so I don’t think it’s out of the question at all.