I mean seriously, is it just me, or has Travis Wood decided to look more like Bronson since he’s been traded to the Cubs. Just look at this:

I mean, it’s weird, right? In any case, old, right-handed, less shitty Bronson Arroyo (Bronson Classic, if you will) had a pretty good game. He went eight innings, allowed only two runs on 5 hits, and a walk. It’s actually maybe a little unfortunate that he even allowed two runs, because the Cubs strung together three of those hits and the walk to score those runs in the second inning – outside of that, Bronson pitched seven innings with only two baserunners.

The Reds themselves only managed to score 4 runs, most of them actually off of reliever James Russell.  But all of the Reds position-starters got in a hit today. Brandon Phillips was exceptionally good, with 3 hits, one a double, and Ryan Ludwick hit yet another clutch double for two RBI in the eighth inning.

It was enough. Chapman came in for the top of the ninth, striking out 2 (once again tying with Homer Bailey for 3rd place in strikeouts on the Reds), and got the save. That’s two wins in a row now, combined with a Pittsburgh loss, so we’re 4 full games ahead in the division. It’s a pretty good place to be.

At least I can be happy for this guy’s first All-Star selection.(Photo by Keith Allison/Flickr)

The All-Star Game rosters were released today, which is good, because it gives the fans of every single baseball team something to whine and feel bitter about. This year, and me, are no exceptions. Especially since, old friend Tony La Russa is managing the NL team, and thus gets to help select the team.

It’s a little astonishing that Joey Votto is going to be starting only his first all-star game – he didn’t start either the year he won the MVP or the year after. Now that Pujols and Fielder and Gonzalez have all set off for American League-ier pastures, it’s JV’s turn to shine. It’s also great that Aroldis Chapman and Jay Bruce will be able to suit up for the NL, Bruce for the second year in a row.

But, of course, there are two big snubs on Reds fans’ minds right now. First, Brandon Phillips, who was a distant second in all-star voting, perhaps a tiny bit unfairly as I’ve discussed before, apparently didn’t merit a selection as a reserve, or a spot on the “Final Man” Vote. Filling both those spots are fellow second-baggers Jose Altuve, and Aaron Hill. I mentioned Aaron Hill as well – and he makes sense, as his numbers are essentially as good as Uggla’s, and he got like, no votes. It’s a minor thing, though, as Altuve, Hill, and Uggla all have at least slightly better offensive numbers than Phillips, and I wouldn’t be as suspicious if it weren’t for a couple other notable omissions.

According to the numbers right now, Johnny Cueto may not be the best pitcher in the National League, but he’s at least in the conversation. Cueto’s really not a strikeout guy, and his walks aren’t high, but they aren’t Cliff-Lee-low either. So by peripherals, using the handy measure of xFIP, most of the chosen starters look a bit better. But Cueto has the fifth best ERA in the National League – better than a full five of the selected starting pitchers. He hasn’t been particularly lucky in the BABIP sense – his is just a hair below the NL average. He does it, of course, with groundballs – with a 49% GB rate, he’s doing better in that respect than any of the NL All-Star SP’s other than R.A.Dickey.

At very least, I’d say he’s better than Wade Miley, but Miley is the sole representative of the Diamondbacks, so what can you do? Still, I get the feeling that TLR still hasn’t quite forgiven the major players in the brou-ha-ha of 2010.

What sort of caps this all off is that the Brewers’ Zack Greinke is another big snub. Greinke maybe has an even better case, as he has been clearly superior to both Lynn and Hamels this season. No matter how you look at it, it’s a bit shocking. Until you remember that there’s no love lost between Greinke and LaRussa.

Yes, it’s obviously all a grand conspiracy by a retired baseball manager who doesn’t particularly like the team I root for. Or Zack Greinke. Also, aliens. Aliens are probably involved.

No seriously, it’s a little bit of a shame, but personal feelings have influenced ASG selections since the beginning of time/All-star selections. If we want Cueto on the mound, I guess we’ll just have to win the World Series this year.

EDIT: Also, the news going around is that Lynn, at least was a player vote – TLR used four of his picks on Phillies – probably Cole Hamels, there. (Partial source)

(Photo by BubbaFan/english language wikipedia )

It’s not news that the shortstop question has not been settled to any satisfactory level in recent years. There’s a similar number that’s been bandied around before but by my quick count, Brandon Phillips has keystone-comboed with 16 separate shortstops in his time with the Reds, and that’s just for starting games. The list doesn’t inspire much confidence:  Clayton, Olmedo, Aurilia, Lopez, Castro, Keppinger, Sutton, Rosales, Hairston, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Valaika, Renteria, Janish, Valdez.

That’s a sad state of things in the Reds franchise. If you look at opening day starters since 1918, which is all the data has, shortstop is the position that’s been the most consistent (at least on opening day). 55 different men have started in left field on opening day, and 32 different first baseman – but only 30 men (the least at any position) have been Reds opening day shortstops since 1918. That list is led by Barry Larkin with 17 years, and Davey Concepcion with 15 – but even the consistency of the McMillan era, or Leo Cardenas would be a welcome change to the ephemeral quality our shortstops have taken on lately.

Lately, I’ve been considering whether or not Zach Cozart is the answer to that question. Right out the gate, it seemed like Zack was the answer to all our prayers – swatting triples and homers like nobody’s business. Even then, I expected a certain amount of regression. Nothing would suggest that Cozart would be a .900 hitter. In fact, the minor league history supports the .699 OPS more, probably.

But really, maybe that’s not so bad. It’s not good, and we’re all hoping that the next few years/months/weeks see some improvement. But looking around the league, at least Cozart isn’t rock bottom, like Janteria was last year.  When you give him the benefit of his defensive numbers, he comes out just outside of the top half. I guess a good shortstop is just hard to find.

Of course, those defensive numbers aren’t sacrosanct. Most commentators have been impressed with Cozart’s defense, but it’s still not a perfect science. In any case, I’m willing to give Cozart a pass as long as things don’t get any worse.

Which second baseman will win a fabulous trip to exotic Kauffman Stadium? (Photo by jimcchou/Flickr)

Alternate title: The Problem With All-Star Voting Philosophies. Alternate alternate title: Whither Aaron Hill?

The latest all-star vote tabulations still have the NL 2B position as, well, a one-horse race, with Dan Uggla leading with over 2 million votes. With voting over one week from today, it seems unlikely to change, as BP’s pulling a lackluster 1.2 million votes (Altuve, Infante, and Weeks round out the top 5).

Two weeks ago, this seemed pretty fair. Although there are parties out there who don’t like BP’s flashy style, and many more who think that he may have lost a step in the field, I think most would admit that there’s some defensive advantage from BP over Uggla. And on June 5, for example, Uggla was OPS’ing .876, with BP at .714. You’d have to play one heck of a defense to make up for an offensive gap that wide. In the past two weeks, though, they’ve taken opposite turns – where Uggla has hit a cold streak, dropping his OPS to .818, BP has gotten hot, raising his to .778. A .040 difference in OPS is a horse of a whole different color – you could legitimately believe that BP’s season was just better.

Although, with these samples, I’m quite wary of the defensive and baserunning numbers, for what it’s worth, fangraphs still rates Uggla at 2.5 WAR and Phillips at 2.0 WAR. So, it’s certainly not unfair that Uggla will likely head to the all-star game.

You know what other NL second baseman that fangraphs rates at 2.5 WAR? Aaron Hill. Hill has better hitting numbers at this point than Uggla, and by some metrics, is also fielding better. Hill doesn’t even crack the top 5 in all-star voting. I mean, to be fair, Aaron Hill is not exactly an NL mainstay like Uggla and Phillips are, and there aren’t any Diamondbacks who are doing well in all-star voting, but Hill has been good before, and was an AL All-Star in 2009. He’s not a journeyman nobody having 1/2 a good season.

I guess that’s the confusing thing about all-star voting. It’s so hard to tell what makes you an all-star. Sustained excellence clearly means something. Being on a popular team clearly means something. Winning the world-series the year before means something. But having a hot half-season can also mean a lot, too, or else Melky Cabrera wouldn’t ne leading the outfield voting right now.

And this year, it seems like having a really hot 1/3 of a season can mean something too. Don’t get me wrong. I don’t really have any problem with Dan Uggla going to the all-star game. He’s a good second-baseman having a good year – a bounceback year, which is a nice story. I will say that I absolutely do not understand all-star voting, and probably never will. And honestly, that’s fine.

(Photo by M.C. Martin/Flickr)

Today, Brandon Phillips had another great day at the plate, going 3-5 with a home run and 4 RBI. Of crse, kinda everyone had a good day at the plate today – it was certainly not Josh Tomlin and the Cleveland bullpen’s day.

I know it probably just co-incides with BP getting hot, but I had an unscientific feeling that he’s been pretty good in interleague in general this year, so I looked at his career splits and compared them with the splits of some of the other Reds with careers long enough to have some reasonable interleague numbers.

• Phillips: 501 PA, .801 OPS (.756 career OPS)
• Votto: 270 PA, .958 OPS (.971 career OPS)
• Bruce: 277 PA, .642 OPS (.809 career OPS)
• Stubbs: 139 PA, .555 OPS (.723 career OPS)
• Hanigan: 101 PA, .686 OPS (.738 career OPS)
• Ludwick:333 PA, .674 OP S (.782 career OPS)
• Heisey, 109 PA, .751 OPS (.752 career OPS)
• Cairo:  526 PA, .660 OPS (.679 career OPS)

So, no, it’s not a huge difference, and I would probably chalk it up in part to the time of year that interleague occurs, for example, I feel like Bruce is always in one of his slumps sometime in June – and I doubt interleague play is the cause. Still, BP is the only guy on that list with an interleague OPS higher than career, which is pretty notable.

Probably spurious, but maybe we can turn it into one of those word-of-mouth myths – “Oh yeah, everyone knows that BP just destroys American League competition! He’s the best there is when it comes to interleague play.*”

*Not intended to be a factual statement.

I don't blame you Brian Kenny, this is pretty dreamy. (Photo by Keith Allison/flickr)

It’s sort of like a prequel to Red Dawn, but with Last of the Mohicans. And the USSR wins. Summer Blockbuster, starring Zac Efron, or something. (Unless Zefron is no longer a thing. If not, some other young actor who is currently the thing with teenagers.)

The Reds didn’t need Efron to beat the Indians tonight, assuring a win of the three-game series, and cementing a two run lead over Pittsburgh in the central. Things were a little iffy in the first half of the game, as the Reds scored only sparingly at first, while the Indians threatened multiple times, loading the bases, and getting in a run here, and there.

But Latos did a good job getting out of a lot of tough jams with minimal damage: 7 IP with 2 ER and 7 Ks should be  a good solid confidence builder for him.

Offensively speaking, it was really the Votto and Phillips show. I’ve been loving all the national attention Votto is getting right now (although that also comes with downsides: “WHAT WHY AREN’T YOU TALKING ABOUT ADRIAN GONZALEZ RIGHT NOW?! YOU NEVER TALK ABOUT ADRIAN GONZALEZ. I’VE NEVER HEARD OF VOTTO BEFORE TALK MORE ABOUT ADRIAN GONZALEZ.” But as far as downsides go, internet commenter stupidity is hardly a downside at all.) During MLB Tonight, they talked a lot about Votto’s second at-bat, in which he never left the batter’s box, and barely even blinked while working a walk off Derek Lowe. I think Brian Kenny swooned.

But Phillips had a really excellent game, too- hitting two singles in addition to adding two insurances runs with a homer off Nick Hagadone.

Now, all that’s left is to take game three from the Indians before heading up to New York for a series with the Mets.

The latest round of all-star voting came out and features a few Reds. We’re only a few weeks away from the end of all-star voting, so if you haven’t voted, go vote now. And often. Make up some new emails and vote again. And again. And again. AND AGAIN.

In good news, voters have clearly recognized the superlativity of Joey Votto, as he’s leading the NL 1B ballot, with over twice the votes of the next highest candidate (Cardinal Lance Berkman).

You’d be ridiculous to vote for anyone else – his latest ‘hot streak’ has brought him to the top of the leaderboard in a lot of categories. He leads the NL in walks, and OPS, and all of MLB in OBP and doubles. The only area in which Votto isn’t beating the NL’s pitchers like red-headed step-children in is home runs – but that clearly hasn’t slowed him down very much. Votto also has a solid defensive reputation from his gold glove, so you pretty much have an ironclad case for all-star-ism.

The rest of the all-star situation looks from “slightly less” to “entirely un-” rosy. For instance, Brandon Phillips is currently in second place in  2B voting, but trails the Braves’ Dan Uggla significantly.

» Continue reading “Ryan Hanigan, You’re An All-Star To Me”

This is not the Reds Cycle you are looking for (Photo by de:User:Ralf Roletschek Fahrradmonteur.de (Own work) via Wikimedia Commons)

In last night’s game, Marlins second-baseman Omar Infante had a chance to achieve a comparatively meaningless baseball accomplishment that hasn’t been done since September 15, 2011 – hitting for the cycle.  That’s not to diminish the fact that hitting for the cycle is pretty great – if nothing else, it’s a four hit night, with three extra base hits. I suppose we like it, say, more so than just hitting 4 home runs in a single game, because it seems more balanced – maybe a two or three tool accomplishment, rather than just a power game alone. On the other hand, a few hits in one game doesn’t exactly define a player’s qualities – e.g. Pablo Sandoval was the last player to do it, and he’s not exactly a triples machine.

The announcers mentioned last night that the Marlins had never had a player hit for the cycle. After B.J. Upton’s 2010 cycle, it left the Marlins with only the Padres as the remaining current franchises never to hit for the cycle. Before we get our heckle on, I should note that the Reds last cycle was hit by Eric Davis in 1989 – that’s a few years before the Marlins even existed. ( But hey, the Padres have been around way longer, since 1969) so heheheh – you guys suck.) The Reds have hit for the cycle 9 times – including three by John Reilly, one of only three players to hit for three cycles. When you restrict it to ‘cycles hit in the 20th or 21st centuries’, the Reds’ number dwindles to 4 – Heinie Groh in 1915, Harry Craft for the 1940 World Series winners, Frank Robinson in 1959, and the aforementioned Eric Davis in ’89.

Clearly it’s time for a Reds cycle in the new millenium, but who’s the best candidate this season? I ran a few numbers – which are just for fun. Essentially – I looked at singles, doubles, triples, and homeruns as if they’re independent outcomes, which means I multiplied each players single rate times doubles rate times triples rate time home run rates. The rates I used were per plate appearance over the last five years (minor league numbers for Cozart and Mesoraco). Then I multiplied that by the number of games, I loosely projected them to start (150 for starters, 80 for platoon guys, 30 for bench guys).  This obviously isn’t so much aimed at producing a reliable likelihood of hitting for the cycle, so much as looking at the comparative probability. Numerous issues include: generally more than 4 PA in a start, the exact probability formula isn’t right, the effect of the quality of the opposing starter, psychology, etc.

* based on minor league numbers

But I figured that all of these issues were probably either proportional to how good a player is at getting those hits (that is, the player who is most likely to hit for the cycle in 4 PA is probably most likely to hit for the cycle in 5 PA), or totally unmeasurable. But because the numbers don’t matter in an absolute sense, I scaled them to the guy with the least chance – poor Ryan Hanigan, who is probably less likely to hit for the cycle even than the bench guys. So, these numbers reflect how much more likely each player is to hit for the cycle than my beloved Ryan Hanigan.

Brandon Phillips at the top of the list is no big surprise, and he leads by quite a bit. He’s got plenty of power and speed, even though his base-stealing hasn’t been too, too great, lately. But it’s interesting that Votto, who isn’t as good at hitting triples as some of his teammates ranks next highest – he’s enough better at hitting doubles and home runs that he still does pretty good. And Cozart at number 3 based on his minor league numbers is interesting, as he hit for the cycle in the first two games combined. Will he keep it up? Certainly not at THIS rate, exactly, but he’s starting to look like a better and better pick to be the next Red to hit for the cycle.

Heeeee's safe(ly not going to Philadelphia. Prolly.)(Photo: Hot Flash Photography/flickr)

Although nothing like a credible source appears to have reported it, Brandon Phillips to the Phillies for Cole Hamels has been the latest ‘thing’ to go around the Cincinnati Reds’ corner of the internet. I think it started as a twitter rumor, and for what it’s worth, it popped up as the first question in yesterday’s mlb trade rumors chat. Ben Nicholson-Smith thereof says nay, in case you were wondering. But it’s more fun for me to pretend I don’t know there’s essentially nothing to it.

I’m not really sure it’s that great a deal for the Reds anyway. While I do think that Hamels is the more valuable player at the end of the day, Brandon Phillips makes quite a case for himself by playing good defense and being an everyday position player. I mean, if you look at WAR (you know, for funsies) for the last two years, BP has been the better player (2011: 6.0 to 4.9, 2010 4.4 to 3.7). While Phillips is two years older, Hamels is a pitcher, which also makes him a little more risky.

Both will be free agents after this year. Hamels makes $15 million to BP’s 12. But I think the biggest reason for this deal not to happen on our side (not to mention how ludicrous the Phillies might find it), is replacement level at each of those position. Although our #5 pitcher this season probably won’t be that good, we’ve helped re-establish depth there with guys like Francis (assuming he stays) and Zavada, and I don’t think we’re looking far below league average for a number five guy. Second base on the other hand, is way sketchier. We’ve got a couple guys who can probably field it, but won’t hit a bit. Todd Frazier’s bat may be resurging, but we tried him at second, and I really don’t think his defense will well there at all.

Well, in the extremely extremely unlikely chance that this is a plausbible rumor, and the trade comes into being, at least I’ve already formed an opinion on it.

Well, it’s been a few more days, and we’re a little bit closer to finishing up.  I want to look at all the things we needed to do, or at least someone might think we needed to work on this offseason.

1. Pitching

• Although there’s been a lot of concern, complaints, and outright caterwaulin’ about the Reds need for new bats, I’ve  been of the opinion that pitching was going to be easier to improve with less money. Certainly, this is where Walt spent the bulk of his time and effort

• Major League moves: Trade for Latos, trade for Marshall, sign Madson
• Depth moves: Signing Brackman, Francis, Zavada, Mahay, Kanekoa Texeira, Josh Judy

» Continue reading “Reds End-Of-Off-Season Checklist.”