Who Is 2012′s Most Consistent Red?

Whoops, spoiler alert. (Photo by Chris Staley/Flickr)

Well, since my last strange and useless statistic came up lemons on Ryan Ludwick discussion points, I clearly just had to make up my own, right?

It’s hard to try to measure (non)-volatility, but I thought I’d take a shot, just based on how many starts with zero hits a player has. That part was basic, because I just divided the number of games started with no hits, by the player’s number of starts. Obviously, the lower that is, the better. Then I decided to take it a little farther. I mean, Joey Votto is going to have the fewest 0-hit games, just because it’s much harder to get him out. I mean, obviously that still means Joey Votto is the best, because being really good at baseball is the best way to be a really good baseball player.

But just for funsies, I calculated an ‘expected’ percentage. I based it on the player’s batting average and number of AB’s that specific player averages in his starts. It’s not perfect, of course, and probably ludicrously inaccurate, statistically speaking. I just wanted to partially reflect the fact that Drew Stubbs almost never gets a hit (so he’s obviously going to have more 0-fors), and Ryan Hanigan gets significantly fewer AB per start (so he’s obviously going to have fewer 0-fors).

The results reveal that, adjusted for his batting average and average number of AB, Ryan Ludwick is our most consistent Red:

GS GS with 0 hits % Predicted % Reliability Index
Ludwick 104 0.269 0.295 109.7
Hanigan 89 0.326 0.338 103.8
Heisey 73 0.260 0.264 101.3
Rolen 72 0.375 0.378 100.9
Mesoraco 48 0.458 0.452 98.6
Valdez 39 0.436 0.425 97.5
Frazier 102 0.304 0.296 97.3
Cairo 28 0.536 0.519 96.8
Votto 95 0.253 0.239 94.5
Stubbs 111 0.405 0.382 94.1
Cozart 121 0.322 0.303 94.0
Bruce 137 0.358 0.330 92.3
Paul 8 0.250 0.221 88.2
Phillips 132 0.295 0.253 85.6

Congratulations, Ryan, your trophy is in the mail. It’s a very important award. A very, very important award. You’re welcome.

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