Today, Fay reported that Dusty is not firm on Mike Leake’s position in the rotation. As Redleg Nation (almost immediately) pointed out, this is at least a 90 degree turn around from the tune he was singing a few days ago: namely, that Leake had been a good starter the last two years, thus there was no reason to think he wouldn’t be in the rotation. So, as far as I can tell, the Reds have gone from 2-3 candidates for 1 spot to 3-4 candidates for 2 rotation spots. I’m not sure what this  turnaround is based on: Leake hasn’t been great in spring training, but a lot of people aren’t. And certainly in terms of last year’s performance, everyone not named Cueto was worse than Leake, and Arroyo, whose rotation spot is, apparently, guaranteed was much worse. Now, I’m not saying there aren’t reasons to believe that Arroyo won’t be better, or that Leake won’t be worse, but you could say the same vice-versa.

RLN also points out the (very popular) hypothesis that they’re planning on sending Leake (who is the only rotation candidate with options left) to Louisville to have an extra hitter’s spot until April 11th, which will be the first time that the reds will need a fifth starter. This, the reasoning goes, will give the Reds more time to decide on the bench questions, such as Frazier vs. Francisco. Everyone recognizes that this is extremely hypothetical, but, hypothetically speaking, I think this is a silly idea. Hypothetically.

The Reds did this two years ago, in the opening of the 2010 season. Similarly, having one day off, caused the Reds to send Leake to AAA for a start, keeping Francisco on the roster for five extra games. Incidentally, that Harang-Cueto-Arroyo-Bailey-Harang rotation, with Juan Francisco in the lineup, went 2-3, and Francisco contributed 1 hit in 6 AB, and struck out four times. It’s only one day! one extra game! If we didn’t have an off-day, the schedule would only be 1 day different, and I don’t think this would even be a question.

I mean, if the Reds really think that Mike Leake needs to pitch a real game on his rotation day down in Louisville, I guess that’s fine. I mean, whatever. But I really, really, hope that we’re not just going to sit on a Francisco/Frazier decision until we’ve seen like seven MLB plate appearances between the two of them. We aren’t going to learn anything new.

Perhaps this is just me being frustrated with all the unresolved questions still remaining. We only have a couple more games in ST left. I know it’s probably not that important, but I’m not excessively pleased with knowing less information as time goes on.

Today, Aroldis Chapman made nearly the best possible argument he could make for having him pitch every five days as a member of the Reds rotation. In what is probably his last performance before the Reds are forced to make a decision, he put up a line of 5 IP, 2 R, 7H, 6 K, 0 BB. Not a bad line at all, when you consider it includes a somewhat-misplayed ball on Juan Francisco’s part to extend one inning (but wasn’t scored an error), and took only 89 pitches. He was also said to be hitting 96 with his fastball.

Unfortunately, John Fay reports that Baker only remarked that the Reds were still undecided, possibly becoming a little defensive. His words certainly convey that impression, but I didn’t see the interview, so it’s possible that he was saying it somewhat jokingly.

Of course, you don’t really expect them to have a decision ready immediately after the game. It’s not like the Reds are going to put together a detailed decision tree before the game, such that they can just spit out an answer immediately afterwards. It is something you hope they’re going to consult on and discuss before they come to their final answer. I mean, on the other hand, while Dusty specified that “[t]here’s more people involved than just Chapman,” I feel like the question of whether Chapman is ready to contribute at the major leagues  ought to be key to the decision-making process.

The best way to maximize all the pitching we have is to have the best five starters in the rotation. They’re the ones who are going to pitch all the innings – that needs to be solid. Who ends up in the bullpen in what role? Not as important.

I’m gonna start with the negative, preceded by a somewhat irrelevant story. When  I was a child/adolescent, my sister and I (“encouraged” by our mother”) showed lambs in 4-H. Now, don’t be fooled, this was a pretty suburban endeavor in the end, we kept our lambs with a bunch of other families’ in the 4-H lamb club in a common barn out on a nearby horse farm, so a lot of the real work was shared around. (Still, I’ve done my fair share of manure management, and I’m sure I’ve been peed on and bled on by more farm animals than many.) In any case, in 4-H, much like in everything else, you get a blue ribbon for first (and sometimes first group), red for second, and white for third. If you’re just not very good (I never really got the hang of ‘bracing’), you get a green ribbon for participation. That’s what the Reds rotation gets for last year. A participation ribbon. Guys, you did a …. job, yeah, you  …. pitched. Kinda.

This is really a continuation of my last post, which, if you didn’t read it (but I mean, who hasn’t?) gave some loose outlines on how good different spots in the rotation generally are, at least based on last year. Now, let’s see how that works. So, I’ve made up this chart, which lists the starting ERA+ for the top five starters for each team, and is color coded by how good the pitcher was for his ‘spot’. It’s sorted by number of wins in 2011, which may seem at first to be completely stupid, but once you hear my reasons for it, I think you’ll agree that it’s only “pretty stupid.” The reason is that I wanted to look at the pitching for winning teams. How many great teams are pitching dominant these days? And even if you’re an offensive-based team, how bad can your rotation be and you still win 90 games? See? Marginally less stupid.

So here it is: Dark blue is top 25%, blue-blue is the next 25%, light blue is the net 25% and white is the bottom 25%.

Clearly, the Reds didn’t do so good. 4/5 starters were below average, and three were in the bottom quarter. To be fair, Cueto was very good, obviously, and Mike Leake was fine, it’s just that, as it turns out, it sucks when your second best starter is just league average. It’s fairly interesting though, the top three teams all have excellent rotations. (Note that Texas is even more impressive than this graphic can rank. When I did the Rangers’ battery report, I noticed that their top five starters made all but five team starts).  Milwaukee though is an interesting case, as they didn’t have a great ace pitcher, over the course of the season, at least, but were very good at every other rotation ‘spot’; the Cardinals are a little bit similar, just clearly not as good. Detroit may be an interesting comparison, as well – they were not very good outside of Verlander, much like the Reds,  but were clearly better at positions 3-5 than us.

There IS good news, though. Latos, minor calf issue aside, totally changes the merits of our rotation. Cueto may not be as good as he was last year (although hopefully will start more games), but it’s seems pretty reasonable to pencil him in for “above average”. Latos at number two may be a little unpredictables – even if he splits the difference between the previous two seasons (2011 ERA+: 102; 2010 ERA+: 124), he’ll be in the above average category, and even a bad projection for him would have him just in the “below average” area. Leake is much closer to an above average #3, which slots Bailey and Arroyo down a peg, bumping them up to “below average”. This is a rotation that looks a lot more like one that can, with the right bullpen and offense, win 90 games. In any case, it’s got to be better than “Cueto, then, well, Leake, I guess, and then pray for rain. Lots of rain. I mean. RAIN.”

Here’s a question. What DOES make a “good” fourth starter? If Homer Bailey puts up an ERA+ of 88 this year, should we be ok with that? If Mike Leake is your #2 guy, where does that put you in terms of the league?

Thankfully, I’ve been able to provide an extremely useful, definitive answer to that. (Disclaimer: answer may not actually be at all useful, and is certainly not close to definitive).  Essentially, I went through each team in 2011, picked out the five “starters” by number of games started, and then ranked them by ERA+. Then I did some basic statistical crap, to grab the minimum, maximum, average, and to mark out the top 25% and bottom 25%. So, you can use it, if it please you, to say that, for instance, with an ERA+ of 88, Homer Bailey would be about league average for fourth starters, and a great fifth starter.

Ok, now for all the caveats: Sorting starters by saying which five guys have the most starts is probably not a particularly good method, but I do have serious reservations about using the other methods I considered (like looking at the best 33 starts, next best 33 starts, etc., or creating full 33 start pitchers by adding together the number of starts made by the 8-12 guys who usually make the starts for an MLB team over the course of a year). ERA+ is probably not the best metric, and of course, pitching is only 1/2 of the equation. It’s ok for Homer Bailey to be an average fourth starter, as long as we think the offense is going to score a lot of runs.

Time to switch from being unreasonably pessimistic to being unreasonably optimistic? (Photo by Aditya Mopur/flickr)

Well, after 30 minutes of crying, holding my breath, and demanding that my parents fix Madson’s elbow immediately, I guess I’m ready to look at the situation in a more reasonable way. I mean, the bad news is that this unquestionably decreases the strength of the bullpen as a whole. The good news is that, probably, the closer position won’t suffer too much.

The former Cub is a lefty, but his splits aren’t that big. Last year, right handed batters hit a .599 OPS off of Marshall, compared to a .503 OPS for lefties (.585/.539 in 2010). Yes, that’s not really a small gap, but compare that last year, right handed batters hit .698 off of RHP Nick Masset.  While it looks like Marshall used to have a changeup that he threw almost exclusively to righties, it looks like he dropped it once he moved to the bullpen, and he has had a lot of success.  In 2011, he faced 307 batters, struck out 79, and got 115 groundballs, compared to 17 walks and 1 HR. For 63% of all plate appearances, Marshall got a strikeout or a ground ball – and given our defense, that’s going to be awesome.

Of course, over the years there simply haven’t been that many lefty closers. I mean, for one there aren’t as many lefty pitchers, and a lot of times they get restricted to LOOGY and other set up roles. But there have been some good ones. For the most part, I just looked at the leaders list for career saves, but feel free to point out other great lefty closers in the comments.

• John Franco is fourth on the career saves list with 424, and 3rd on the Reds franchise list  with 148, as he started his career with the Reds in 1984 before getting traded to the Mets for another pitcher on this list, Randy Myers. He was said to have a “90 mph fastball and a changeup that breaks away from a right handed batter like a screwball.”
• A slightly more recent pitcher, Billy Wagner sits just behind Franco on the career saves list with 422. Wagner began his career in Houston, before moving on to the Mets, Phillies, and briefly the Red Sox and Braves. Unique for lefty, Wagner, was a flame throwing power pitcher, relying on a fastball that touched 100, and a darting slider to strikeout tons of batters, including in 1997 when he struck out 59 and walked only 6.
• Randy Myers: In addition to being one of the Nasty Boys, and the closer for that 1990 World Series Champion Reds team, Myers tops the single season saves as a lefty list by being tied on the overall list for fifth with Trevor Hoffman. He amassed 347 saves over a 14 year career with 6 different teams. This old Baseball Digest says that Myers once told a New York reporter that he threw eight pitches: fastball, curve, slider, change, side arm fastball, side arm curve, side arm slider, and knuckleball. Well Sean, you’ve got a lot of work to do. (And of course, fellow Nasty Boy Norm Charlton was also a lefty, and moved into closing after 1990).
•  After Myers, you have to drop down pretty far on the list to find another lefty. This one goes back a bit, as Dave Righetti won rookie of the year in 1981 while starting for the Yankees, before switching to the pen and closing in New York for most of decade. Although Dave Righetti’s 46 saves in 1986 don’t seem awe-inspiring, they were a record that year, and would stand until 1990. Righetti has been the San Francisco Giants pitching coach for over a decade now.
• And now you’ve got a real throwback as far as closers go with Sparky Lyle. Lyle closed for Boston and New York in the 1970s, and was the second relief pitcher to win the Cy Young award, which he did in 1977. Wikipedia also tells us that his mother was a seamstress at a coffin factory, so there’s that. Wikipedia also tells us that he had a propensity for sitting naked on birthday cakes of other players to leave an assprint in the frosting.  The story goes that Lyle worked hard to develop a slider, which became his best pitch, after Ted Williams described it and told him it was the hardest pitch for him to hit.
• Other lefty closers who won the Cy Young award include Mark Davis (1989)  and Willie Hernandez (1984).
• More recent lefty closers include Brian Fuentes (Rockies and Angels), Eddie Guardado (Twins), BJ Ryan (Orioles and Blue Jays), but it seems like lefty closers may be something of a dying breed, as out  of the top 50 active saves leaders, only four are lefties, and one of those is CJ Wilson, who as we know, doesn’t close many games anymore.

Hey, that’s good news: Marshall will probably lead MLB in lefty saves for 2012. Sounds like a winner!

Madson’s out for the season and Chapman moves to the bullpen.

My current outlook on life, by Tara Franey. (Thanks Ryan Madson, you have turned me into a 16 year old emo kid).

It’s Tommy John. I’m dead inside. I’ll  try to write more when I’m done sobbing uncontrollably.

Photo by SD Dirk on Flickr

In the last week, there’s been a multitude of predictions of Chapman’s April destination. Obviously the Reds have been giving him a shot at making the rotation in Cincinnati – but, if he doesn’t, where does he go? And with the bullpen looking shakier, maybe we need him in the bullpen afterall?

That’s what Tim Kurkjian thinks, stating emphatically that Chapman would start in the bullpen in his column on Tuesday. Fay came back with some Dusty quotes that made it seem like things were more up in the air, and Rob Neyer over at baseball nation has contributed his own opinion – that Chapman is destined for the rotation. Interspersed with this was increasingly bad Madson news, as today brought word that our supposed closer is heading back to Cincinnati to get checked out by the team doctors. Any bad Madson news is probably a stronger argument for Chapman heading to the Cincinnati bullpen, as Marshall will probably be drafted in for the closer spot, leaving open a “general lefty” spot in the pen.

As a stopgap measure, I have to say I’m not totally opposed to this. I know I’ve argued for Chapman to go to Louisville to learn how to start, and I still want that this year. However, at this point, it will be nearly impossible for Madson to be ready and with the major league club on opening day. We’re in it to win it this year, so that means we want the best possible club in Cincinnati that we can get. With Marshall closing, and Bray’s status still up in the air, Chapman’s presence as a threatening lefty in late innings is important. Of course, this has a consequence for future years, as Chapman won’t reach his full potential, in my opinion, without given a chance to learn how to start. But it’s important to remember that Chapman’s starting will most likely be fairly limited this season. In 2011, Chapman pitched only 63 innings between MLB and AAA, and even in 2010, pitched just 118 innings total, including 13 starts in Louisville. While this probably isn’t a case of the 20 additional innings rule, I would still be a little tentative to have Chapman pitch 150 innings in Louisville.

I think it makes a lot of sense, on balance of present and future needs, to have Chapman start in the Cincinnati bullpen, move back to Lousiville to make 15 or so starts when Madson is ready, and then consider bringing Chapman back to relieve for the Reds as we head, hopefully, to a pennant race and maybe the playoffs. Honestly, this seems pretty good, and actually possible (unlike most of my wishes, like “TODD FRAZIER  FOR LYFE”).  In any case, we’ll probably get a better read on the Reds intention as the fifth starter competition closes up. Chapman actually hasn’t appeared in a spring training game for awhile, but is scheduled to start one of the split squad games tomorrow. If he doesn’t go four or five innings, I think I would start to assume that he won’t be a starter on opening day.

Yeah, tonight we're gonna panic like it's 1857. /prince

The sky is falling. Despite the fact that we heard almost a week ago that Madson’s elbow was almost back to 100%, the new news is that Madson’s been scratched from the minor league game he was supposed to pitch in today. According to Fay, the Reds are being pretty darned mum about the whole thing. I’ve heard multiple statements that this is some kind of recurring injury for Madson (The previous Fay blog said it’s a spring thing. This Sheldon article just says it’s a recurring issue he’s dealt with before.)

I’m a little curious about this, just because I can’t find any record of Madson having previous elbow injuries. There was a big hand injury in 2011, the self-inflicted toe in jury in 2010, and even some shoulder soreness in 2007. Of course, this doesn’t necessarily mean anything. If it didn’t result on a DL trip, and happened before he became the closer last year, it may not have been covered so extensively that I’d be able to find records of it two years later. It could be something that the Reds just want to take more seriously than the Phillies’ staff did, who knows? (It also could be related to this extremely mysterious ‘soreness’ report from late April 2011.

Additionally, the past spring training records show that Madson usually does get a full complement of spring training innings in:

• 2011: 12.0 IP, 49 batters faced
• 2010: 10.0 IP, 44 batters faced
• 2009: 14.1 IP, 61 batters faced
• 2008: 12.0 IP, 47 batters faced
• 2007: 10.2 IP, 38 batters faced

For reference, we’re just under 2/3 of the way through spring training, and most of our uninjured relievers are looking at about 6-8 innings pitched right now. By this, I just mean that if Madson had elbow issues in previous springs, they have not prevented him from getting into spring training games before. But, like I said before, this could just be a case of our organization being different, or Madson changing his mind about how serious he thinks it might be. On the other hand, there are only 12 possible games remaining for Madson to pitch in. Even if he has an instant turn around tomorrow, I can’t help but think that he’s just not going to have enough time to be truly ready on Opening Day. That’s not a good reason to panic, but it’s probably good enough for “mild consternation.” (It’s going to be the Joey Votto prince of Canada scenario, I can just feel it.)

Heeeee's safe(ly not going to Philadelphia. Prolly.)(Photo: Hot Flash Photography/flickr)

Although nothing like a credible source appears to have reported it, Brandon Phillips to the Phillies for Cole Hamels has been the latest ‘thing’ to go around the Cincinnati Reds’ corner of the internet. I think it started as a twitter rumor, and for what it’s worth, it popped up as the first question in yesterday’s mlb trade rumors chat. Ben Nicholson-Smith thereof says nay, in case you were wondering. But it’s more fun for me to pretend I don’t know there’s essentially nothing to it.

I’m not really sure it’s that great a deal for the Reds anyway. While I do think that Hamels is the more valuable player at the end of the day, Brandon Phillips makes quite a case for himself by playing good defense and being an everyday position player. I mean, if you look at WAR (you know, for funsies) for the last two years, BP has been the better player (2011: 6.0 to 4.9, 2010 4.4 to 3.7). While Phillips is two years older, Hamels is a pitcher, which also makes him a little more risky.

Both will be free agents after this year. Hamels makes $15 million to BP’s 12. But I think the biggest reason for this deal not to happen on our side (not to mention how ludicrous the Phillies might find it), is replacement level at each of those position. Although our #5 pitcher this season probably won’t be that good, we’ve helped re-establish depth there with guys like Francis (assuming he stays) and Zavada, and I don’t think we’re looking far below league average for a number five guy. Second base on the other hand, is way sketchier. We’ve got a couple guys who can probably field it, but won’t hit a bit. Todd Frazier’s bat may be resurging, but we tried him at second, and I really don’t think his defense will well there at all.

Well, in the extremely extremely unlikely chance that this is a plausbible rumor, and the trade comes into being, at least I’ve already formed an opinion on it.

Mmm, tasty, tasty crow. (Photo by Ingrid Taylar from Seattle, WA, USA)

Well, after I went and said that I wasn’t impressed with Homer Bailey’s spring so far, he goes out and throws four shutout innings against the White Sox.With 1 strikeout, 1 walk, and three hits allowed, it was a pretty ok outing, at least so far as the numbers can tell me. It’s also nice to see that the stretching out process is coming along, and according to John Fay, Bailey was eager to go out for the fifth, as well (it probably didn’t help that he was cruising). Perhaps Homer was listening in to Dusty on Sirius XM radio, along with Red Reporter, to hear that he’s competing with Chapman and Francis for the last spot in the rotation.

Unfortunately, our bats were a bit sleepy today. Only three Reds batters had hits today, and only four reached base. At least Cozart had a good day at the plate, going 2-for-2 with a double.