Look, we’ve all seen some ugly hats before, many of them donned by the hit king himself. 

I try not to comment too much on it. People have different tastes, and it’s all essentially ok with me, even the pink hats. I personally have really regrettable taste in fashion, so clearly I don’t have a lot of room to throw stones.

But this one really just offends me on a lot of different levels. I mean, what is the deal with those colors? Are we teaching our kids about secondary colors? Is this made from the same fabric of Joseph’s Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat? Can half of the population even tell the difference beween the blue on the left and the indigo on the right? White stitching for contrast, why not? Let’s add some of those breathe-y head holes in contrasting white as well!

Boo, I say. Boo.

Well, it’s been a few more days, and we’re a little bit closer to finishing up.  I want to look at all the things we needed to do, or at least someone might think we needed to work on this offseason.

1. Pitching

• Although there’s been a lot of concern, complaints, and outright caterwaulin’ about the Reds need for new bats, I’ve  been of the opinion that pitching was going to be easier to improve with less money. Certainly, this is where Walt spent the bulk of his time and effort

• Major League moves: Trade for Latos, trade for Marshall, sign Madson
• Depth moves: Signing Brackman, Francis, Zavada, Mahay, Kanekoa Texeira, Josh Judy

» Continue reading “Reds End-Of-Off-Season Checklist.”

Photo by mwlguide @ flickr

One player who hasn’t gotten a lot of blog time this winter is Devin Mesoraco, our hypothetical starting catcher. We’ve been busy talking about just about everything else: rotation, relievers, left field, short stop, BP extension, who precisely is going to back up at catcher. But Devin himself is going largely untalked about. Some of this is probably because we’ve got good plans B and C at this point. We know Ryan Hanigan is a more than capable guy whose bat plays well for his defensive position. Corky Miller provides depth and wouldn’t totally suck. And who knows, maybe Dioner Navarro could have a bit of a breakthrough and surprise us?

Still, at least pre-spring training, Mesoraco’s looking like “the guy” and  he’s only got 53 MLB plate appearance to his name. Although he has an excellent prospect record, he wouldn’t be the first young player to fall flat on his face in the majors.

It’s a lot of pressure for a 24 year old with a team now built around pitching, and a lot of question marks in the lineup. So to see  the range of possibilities for Mr. Mesoraco in 2012, I looked at some previous catchers in his age range and situation. Think of it like an analog projection:

» Continue reading “What To Expect When You’re Expecting Devin Mesoraco.”

Although I haven’t been following it too closely I was sad to see  winter ball wrap up for one of my favorite Reds prospects. Henry Rodriguez, born in Maracay, Venezuela, is a 21 year old switch hitting infielder in the Reds system, ranked in the top 10 or 15 Reds prospects by many. His 2011 season, batting .320/.372/.469 between A+/AA was impressive, but he’s still a ways away and needs to work on his 2B defense.

This winter, he played for the Aguilars del Zulia, who just ended their season. The Venezuelan winter league has an interesting system where the top 5 of 8 teams do a round robin playoff of 16 games per team in January, and the top two teams go onto play in the finals. Although Rodriguez’s Aguilars made it to the round robin, they finished fifth, and won’t be going to the finals. H-Rod finished with a line of .279/.333/.371, which isn’t very exciting, but it’s a small sample size in a winter league. Interestingly, though, he played 3B for most of the games I looked at, including this one, where he made an excellent defensive play. (Youtube, @ 2:40)

One last interesting bit is that apparently Henry Rodriguez has an awesome nickname among his Venezuelan fans. “El Pollito. (You can see it in the video caption, as well as on this facebook fan page) I have no idea why they nicknamed him the little chicken, but perhaps it has to do with how young he was when he signed with the Rays (17). In any case, I, for one, love it, and I hereafter refuse to call him anything else. Unless, you know, I find out that it’s actually horribly insulting/offensive. Even so, I might be tempted….

You can also watch an entire game of El Pollito’s if you get ESPN3 (I get it through my internet provider), because they have the 12/21/2011 Magellanes vs. Zulia game there. He plays 3B and also gets 2 hits in the game. (May be more interesting if you can understand Spanish…) Here’s the specific link, but I’m not sure it will work, if not, just go to the ESPN3 page and look under baseball.

In the last week, a half-gazillion contracts have been signed up against the arbitration filing deadline. For the Reds, Homer Bailey ($2.425MM), Bill Bray (1.418MM), and Paul Janish (0.850MM) have signed one-year deals, leaving only Masset and Arredondo to file. (MLBTR’s Arb Tracker is especially useful, here) Now, some teams are “file and trial” as MLBTR describes it, which means that they won’t negotiate after filing numbers, but the Reds are not. Specifically, as I’ve mentioned ad nauseum, Walt Jocketty has almost never actually gone to an arbitration hearing. Since we specifically heard that Arredondo has been working on a 2 year deal, and both the team’s AND Arredondo’s filing numbers were below MLBTR’s projected number, I strongly suspect we’ll hear about a 2 year deal in the $2 million range in the next week or so. I’m guessing Masset will also sign a contract, although he and the Reds are a little farther apart ($2.1MM vs. $2.9MM).

Using a loose estimation of who’s going to be on the opening day roster, and 2012 major league minimum of $480,000 for anyone not under contract, the 2012 Opening Day Payroll (including bonuses payable this year) looks like this, in my estimation.

Most data from Cots Contracts at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

This is assuming (perhaps wishful thinking) that Brackman and Chapman are not on the opening day roster, meaning that Chapman and Brackman’s salary would still have to be paid out on top of what’s owed to the major league roster. If they do end up the roster in favor of players who aren’t under contract, the payroll could shrink a bit. It may also be a bit low, as players in their second or third year of service do tend to make a teensy bit more than major league minimum.

Now noticeably, this is already a bit above last year’s opening payroll (~$80million). But the payrolls go up – the payroll in 2009 was only ~$73 million, and as it’s almost doubled since 2000. We’ve got to assume that Walt’s got some payroll increase to work with, else we probably wouldn’t be welcoming Mssrs Madson and Ludwick to the Cincinnati. But the question is how much? The team is looking pretty complete, but apparently there is one thing we’re missing.

The name on everyone’s lips right now is Ryan Theriot. He’s been linked to the Reds earlier, and Walt has recently expressed his goal of signing a veteran shortstop.  Now, I’m not a big fan of this idea, but I wanted to take a look at the possible costs anyway, so I made a chart of the free agent SSs that have signed major league deals this season, you know, the ones who weren’t Jimmy Rollins or Jose Reyes.

Of course, WAR isn’t the best stat in the world, but for these purposes, I’m going to pretend that it is. The good news, is, of course, that Ryan Theriot wasn’t particularly good either hitting or fielding last year. The bad news is that Ryan Theriot wasn’t particularly good at hitting or fielding last year. Also, neither was Alex Gonzalez, and the Brewers gave him $4.25 million. You could probably make an argument for all of these guys, other than Betancourt and Wilson, being more valuable than Theriot. Some of those arguments would be ridiculous, but you could make them. At this point, I am loathe to make a prediction, but at this point, the pool of acceptable veteran shortstops is dwindling (we’re talking, Renteria, Tejada, Vizquel left essentially) and it seems the Braves and the Rays are still in the market as well.

I am pretty confident that we’ll sign him, and considering where we are right now, I’m not totally sure it matters how much he costs (within a reasonably foreseeable range, at least). He’s definitely the last piece we’d be picking up. Next year’s team is either going to be what we’ve got now, or what we’ve got now plus Ryan Theriot. It’s Bob’s money at this stage. I mean, maybe there’s a chance that we could pick up something at the deadline that’s going to cost more in salary, but that’s honestly not something I’m concerned about at this point.

I wanted to find him not in a Cardinals uniforms, but this is actually worse, I think. Photo by SD Dirk

So, according to Ken Rosenthal, all those left field questions have been answered. That is, the Reds have signed Ryan Ludwick to a one year deal, with a mutual option for 2013. Ludwick is apparently guaranteed $2.5 million, with a possible $3 million total, including incentives. Ludwick also becomes the third Ryan, in addition to the potential all-Ryan battery of Hanigan and Madson. I don’t know what crazy possibilities this may lead to, because I haven’t read the new CBA, but I hear it’ll be ridiculous.

Now, Ludwick and Heisey are both right-handed batters, which may eliminate the platoon option depending on whether you (well, more importantly, whether Walt and Dusty) take Heisey’s major league reverse platoon splits seriously. Ludwick is also not exactly a spring chicken. He’s not Rolen yet, but he’s in the next tier of older Reds, as he’ll be 33 this season. He’s had reasonably consistent playing time since 2008, though he’s suffered a few nagging injuries throughout the years (like these back spasms of 2011, or this minor calf injury in 2010), notching at least 500 PA in the past 4 seasons.

2008 was Ludwick’s peak, pinnacle, and acme, as Ryan put up a nigh-MVP calibre season (you know, if there weren’t that other guy on the Cardinals who was pretty good), with an OPS of .960, and 37 HR. However, things have been on a steady decline for Ludwick since then, posting OPS’s of .775, .743, and .674. The biggest benefit that Ludwick has over Heisey is that he does seem to be a little better at taking a walk: they had about equivalent OBPs last year, but Heisey’s was more AVG related. But by no means does is Ludwick a clear improvement.

Of course, that’s not necessarily even the point. Ludwick’s presence provides at least a reasonably reliable fourth outfielder on the roster, even though it seems that Walt may be clinging to Ludwick’s success when they were both with the Cardinals.  But it doesn’t really matter who gets the playing time, as long as we’re not relying on an untested Denis Phipps when we come into the season. This is definitely my least favorite move of the off-season (I like Fukudome, and the C-ing Red Puppy favors, as we know, Cody Ross)  but it’ll do, Walt, it’ll do.

Do you think the Reds have considered a team mandatory facial hair policy? Because I have. I have. **

The biggest question of the offseason, after improving the starting pitching, improving the bullpen,signing Brandon Phillips to an extension, looking at a left fielder, who will play shortstop, will Scott Rolen rebound from 2011, is Chris Heisey’s power surge for real, and what’s up with the new mascot, anyhoo, is… Ok. SOME PEOPLE, who shall remain nameless were wondering, given that it looks like we’ll have Devin Mesoraco and Ryan Hanigan, who will improve our team mustache quotient?

I mean, don’t get me wrong, Sam LeCure, your upper lip hair is lovely, but we really need to go above and beyond this season. Furthermore, what if LeCure, knock on wood, ends up getting injured? I don’t think anyone out there thinks the Reds have a real shot at winning the World Series next season without a great mustache on the squad.

Thankfully, according to the Enquirer blog, Saint Walt of Jocketty has answered our prayers in the form of Clay Zavada, on a minor league deal. They even provided for us a preview of some of Zavada’s Marvelous Mustache Action ™:  Now that is a mustache that is not joking around. Now Zavada is probably just a lefty-reliever who pitched some nice innings for the Diamondbacks in 2009 , one who will likely spend much, if not all of the season in Louisville. However, I’ve read that a mustache of such magnificence can have an effect all through your farm system, and even in the majors. I don’t remember where I read that, but you guys believe me.

**Original photo by Keith Allison. Alterations by …. me. (Even though I have decided to only support mustaches on baseball players, clearly, I am never going to get tired of putting mustaches on photos of people.)

Now that's what I call an enclosed area of male cows. Photo credits to BubbaFan, shgmom56,phillymads63, sideonecincy, and keithallison (Click for larger size)

Cliche masculinity references aside, the more I look at Madson and Marshall, the more excited I am about the Reds bullpen. Because they are both very, very good. I know relief pitchers can be overvalued – and yes, from a strict cash/prospect perspective we probably are overpaying. But it also turned an important are of the team from below average to excellent.

Let’s start with Madson. We finally are looking at a pretty reliable contract figure of 1 year/$8.5 million, which is expensive, but not horrible. Last year, Madson threw about 60 innings, had an ERA of 2.37, 9.2 K/9 innings , 2.37 BB/9 innings, and only 0.3 HR/9 innings. If you weren’t sure: that’s good. (fangraphs link) Madson, like so many relief pitchers, began life as a starter, but improved every year from 2007, which he spent in the bullpen fulltime, to 2010, maintaining that level in 2011. One of the craziest things about Madson last year, especially as a closer, is that he allowed only 8 extra base hits. That’s 4 doubles and 2 home runs. In 60 innings. Yeah. He’s not an extremely groundball pitcher, but most of the hits he allows are only singles. In a closer, that’s a very good trait. You can imagine how many of our relievers allowed fewer than 8 extra base hits last year. I mean, the ones who pitched more than 10 innings. (Even then, it’s a close call).

How does he do it? Mostly, through a magical, magical changeup. This comes in on average at 10 mph slower than Madson’s mid-90s fastball, and last season, induced a 33% swing and miss rate in batters. (here’s the pitchfx data for last season) Essentially, 1 in every 3 pitches Madson throws is a changeup. 1 in every 3 changeups is a whiff. That’s pretty good. The MLB average FOR CHANGEUPS was around 12% swing-and-miss last year. From the data, Madson’s general approach is pretty easy to detect. If you’re an opposing batter, you’re more likely than not to see a fastball for your first pitch (65% in 2011). If you get behind in the count, he’s more likely to throw you a changeup. If you get ahead in the count, more likely a fastball. Simple, but deadly.

The worst thing you could say about Madson is that he has missed some time with injury, but neither were the repetitive motion injuries you worry about being chronic. In 2010, he missed a surprisingly large amount of time due to “bruised right hand” when a taking  hit ball to the hand ended up worse than expected. Aaaand, in 2o11, he blew a save, threw a tantrum, kicked a chair, broke a toe, and earned another DL trip. Ok, I always think it’s hilarious when athletes injure themselves in dumb ways, but it’s really not against the code of conduct for a closer these days.

So basically, all the reasons why Madson is the best ever (may be slight hyperbole) are great, and all the reasons why he might not be the best ever are terrible. Awesome.

I’ll take a look at Sean Marshall after the jump

» Continue reading “Madson And Marshall Turn The Reds Calf Pen Into A Bull Pen”

Photo by phillymads63

EDIT: It’s official. Morosi confirmed, and Sheldon confirmed it’s a 1 year, 10 million dollar deal. That’s a lot of money. If you look at Red Reporter’s excellent payroll projection, that definitely puts us over 2011′s payroll mark. Perhaps Jocketty talked Castellini around – hey, if we win the world series, our revenue probably WILL go up.

Although almost no talk has linked Madson to the Reds until today, John Heyman of CBSSports is reporting that the Reds and Madson (previously with the Phillies)  have come to an agreement, for one year. Now, Madson is a Boras client, so it bears closer scrutiny, especially since Fay was saying a few hours ago that his source downplayed our interaction with Madson. However, it seems unlikely that Heyman would report a deal when there was none (as opposed to “talks” about Jair Jurrjens), and his relationship with Boras would explain why he has the scoop.

This move strongly solidifies the bullpen, and closes down all the closer questions. (Additionally, now that Cordero will probably sign elsewhere, we’ll get draft picks). While we don’t know how much the one year deal is for, we are pretty sure that the Phillies offered him 4 years/40 million before signing Papelbon. The Red Sox traded for Andrew Bailey, and the Angels have pretty much shut down that option, so the lack of suitors has clearly brought down his price a little.

This will probably eats up the rest of the 2012 budget (as far as we know). Compared to the Cordero deal (4 years/46 mill). This is  better, as Madson is a little younger at the time of the deal (31 vs. 33), and has better stats from the last three seasons (lower ERA, lower WHIP, lower BB/9, but also lower K/9). And lucky, or not, Cordero was pretty good for us, although maybe not >10% of our payroll good.  A one-year deal is crazy good for the Reds  since we’re playing the WIN NOW game, and not bad for Madson, as he can hit the free agent market next year, when the demand may be higher – before he gets too old.

It definitely, though, eliminates the possibility of  eliminates all but the most trivial of more free agent signings (veteran SS, I’m looking at you). So probably no LF bat. It feels very odd to be so confident of the Reds pitching situating going into the season, and wondering if the offense is going to keep up though. I’m still not necessarily unhappy with the idea, but it’s still very, very foreign.

I’m a little surprised that we weren’t bidding with the Rangers, though. They’ve probably been distracted with the Darvish issue: if so, good timing on Jocketty’s part.

Photo by RDikeman

It’s finally that day, the one every Reds fan has been waiting for. Merry Barry-Larkin-voted-into-the-Hall-of-Fame-mas! Really, it’s an assumption we’ve all been operating on for months. The momentum has been growing, the writers slowly falling in line: Barry Larkin deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. You could say that it sort of took away a little of the anticipation, but, really, it didn’t. This is Barry’s 3rd year on the ballot, which is fine. He’s not a slam dunk case. But at the end of all the arguments, and statistics and details, he deserves it, and 86% of the voting writers this year agreed.

Let’s look, for a moment, at the ranks of Reds Baseball Hall of Famers (distinct, obviously, from ‘Reds Hall of Famers’) that Barry is joining. It’s actually been over ten years since the last Red was voted in. (Which isn’t that long a time, really – I suspect that it will be longer than ten years before the next Red is voted in). Barry’s also the first Reds shortstop to get in, and the only player on the 1990s World Series Champion Reds to make it.

In 2000, Bid McPhee, a second baseman for the 1880s-1890s, Sparky Anderson, manager of the Big Red Machine, and BRM 1st baseman Tony Perez were inducted – McPhee and Anderson by the veterans committee and Perez by the writers. Perez was the last of the BRM to get in - Joe Morgan and Johnny Bench were inducted in 1990 and 1989 respectively. The 1980s also saw the induction of Ernie Lombardi, catcher for the 1940 World Series Champion Reds, and Frank Robinson, of “being Frank Robinson” fame.  (Although, technically, Robinson is wearing an Orioles cap on his plaque). The three remaining Hall-of Fame Reds were all inducted in the early 1960s: Bill McKechnie, the manager of the 1940 World Series winners, Eppa Rixey, the dominant lefty pitcher of the 1920s, and Edd Roush, a center fielder who won with the 1919 largely forgotten World Series Champions.

I’ll probably have more to say later, but for now, ‘Congratulations, Barry Larkin!’ sums it up pretty well.