Drew Stubbs has had quite a history in his five short years with the Reds organization. High-profile from the very beginning, Stubbs made waves when he was drafted first-round in 2006 out of the University of Texas at Austin. For the most part, Stubbs was considered a non-objectionable number 8 pick – a toolsy outfielder with light-tower power, but lacking the polish of a number of the college hitters drafted by the Reds since then (Frazier and Alonso specifically come to mind), but as the second highest position player in that draft (highest was a fellow you may have heard of – name of “Evan Longoria”) Drew had a lot to live up to. This pressure was only magnified when Tim Lincecum, drafted two slots behind Stubbs, emerged as the Giants’ ace and won two consecutive Cy Young awards.
Stubbs went through the minors relatively quickly, having reasonable, but certainly not dominant seasons in rookie and low A ball before going from high a to triple a Louisville in 2008. But it wasn’t until 2010 that Stubbs took over centerfield for the Reds. He had a pretty good rookie season (though, technically he lost his rookie eligibility in 2009), especially compared to the kind of bat we’d seen in the centerfield slot (Patterson, Taveras…). Stubbs’ 2010 .255/.329/.444 was more promising than anything – as his minor league numbers indicated that he could probably raise the AVG and OBP. But Drew’s future did seem at least as rosy as not – through age 25, Drew Stubbs’s most similar batter is Curtis Granderson. Of course, looking beyond the first season of play, the position, and the general player type, the similarities end. For one, Granderson is a lefty – and for another, Granderson’s minor league numbers promised lots and lots of power. Stubbs profiled as a power-bat, but his minor league power numbers are a much bigger question mark – perhaps in part, because the Reds were busy trying to improve his contact skills.
Through this season, Stubbs and Granderson couldn’t be more different. While Granderson really delivered on that promise of power in his age 26 season, Stubbs’ power has really tanked. Although his overall minor league SLG was .401, and he improved that to .444 in MLB last year, this year, Drew is only slugging .363. Overall, this has mainly come from a deficit in his HR numbers. Compare his AB/HR number from 2010 to 2011: 23.4 to 39.1. Ok, so that’s a little obtuse. Let’s just say that at last year’s rate, Drew would’ve hit 10 more home runs this year.
So what’s the problem? There are a number of potential issues. This could reasonably be considered Drew’s sophomore slump year. There’s also just bad luck or good luck regressing to the mean. But if it is, it’s not in any of the ways that we traditionally measure. Stubbs has maintained a high BABIP throughout the minor leagues, and this year he’s raised it to closer to his minor league average. I think that Drew’s foot speed just allows him to maintain a high batting average on his balls in play. And he’s done about the same job as last year as putting the ball in play. Even though Stubbs is sitting pretty right now at 200 Ks, he’s putting the ball in play at about the same rate as he did last year – and frankly, his K rate increase (from 28% to 30%) is less concerning that his decrease in power. On the other hand, striking out 200 times isn’t helping Stubbs hit more doubles, and Ks were something that I think most of us were hoping would improve upon this season. Even as relatively apathetic as I am on strikeouts (compared to other outs), I would be pretty happy if Drew could get that K% down into the low 20s, like in his best years in the minor leagues.
As far as the power goes – last year’s numbers, at least, don’t seem to be the product of luck, or luck alone. Out of 22 home runs, according to ESPN Home Run Tracker, only 4 of them were “Just Enough” or “Lucky” – hard to tell what it may mean, but certainly it’s not screaming that last year’s power was a fluke.
On a more positive note, Drew is looking at 38 SB, at an 80% success rate. I think it’s possible for Drew to regain his power, convert a few of those strikeouts to hits, and use his speed to really make the most of his time on base. I also think it’s possible that he’ll never conquer the strikeout problem, won’t full deliver on his potential power, etc etc. This could a luck issue, an issue where the league is learning to pitch to him – which Stubbs may overcome or not, a lingering minor injury kind of issue that will improve by next season, or a chronic injury issue that never gets better.
Of course, none of that answers the question of what do you DO with Drew Stubbs. What if Stubbs doesn’t bounce back? Can 2011 Stubbs be a starting center-fielder for a NL Central winning team? Can we do better? To be fair, even with the difficulties in the fielding aspect of WAR, Stubbs ranks 4th on the team, although several players would probably beat that if they were playing in a full-time capacity. That includes the catching tandem of Hernandez and Hanigan, but also the most polished of Stubbs’ center field rivals: Chris Heisey. Heisey’s biggest advantage this season has been his power surge – knocking out 17 HR in less than half the PA of Stubbs. But I don’t think many envision Heisey as a 40 HR guy. Dave Sappelt, although not great in his cuppa this fall, made a pretty strong argument with his AAA season. I have heard that Sappelt’s defense is considered a step behind Stubbs, and, of course, he’s pretty much untested in the majors.
It might be nice if one of these guys was a lefty – but there’s really no way to do a platoon with a set of righties. As far as other options go – Jocketty’s publicly stated that he’s unlikely to go after big ticket free agents but, then again, it’s hard to trust what a GM says publicly. And I can’t see spending prospects on improving centerfield – considering the other needs we’re looking at in the off-season. I guess that’s my ultimate conclusion. Stubbs isn’t bad enough to go out of our way to replace, and, I think, for this next year, he’s still our best internal option in center.
