Hawks beat reporter, Michael Cunningham’s post headline says it all: “Hawks look the same, want different results.” Despite a brief stint as a part of the Chris Paul fanfare, the Hawks’ “offseason” moves have been relatively tame thus far. Among the team’s “major” deals are the acquisitions of veterans Tracy McGrady and Vladimir Radmanovic. Even the earlier talks about moving Josh Smith have died down, and the Hawks are resolute to work with what they’ve got.

“We can’t blame it on what we need,” said Joe Johnson. “We can get it done with this group and what we’ve got. We just have to believe.”

And according to a prediction by CBS Sports, the Hawks will end up 2nd in the Southeast Division, one spot above where they were in last year’s standings. CBS has Atlanta beating out the Magic, in large part due to the uncertainty surrounding Dwight Howard’s status.

In today’s edition of “Minor Moves that Probably Won’t Matter”…

The Knicks acquired Tyson Chandler in a major deal and Chris Paul and Dwight Howard rumors continue to swarm. Meanwhile, the Hawks have signed Vladimir Radmanovic who averaged 5.1 points per game and just under 16 minutes per game with the Warriors last year. Radmanovic is a ten-year veteran and is known for being a strong 3-point shooter. Great. So we can continue to be a jump-shooting team that’s scared of the paint. He was drafted 12th in the first round by Seattle in 2001.

The Hawks also lost guard/forward Damien Wilkins who signed with the Detroit Pistons. Wilkins 3.5 points in 52 games with Atlanta last year and is the nephew of former Hawks star, Dominique Wilkins.

With the NBA free agency market opening up in just over a week, trade rumors and speculations on who’s staying and who’s going are rampant. Aerys’s Luck of the Irish took a look at CP3′s prospects of going to the Celtics. Here’s what other hopeful Hawks writers are saying about Paul coming to Atlanta:

“[ESPN analyst Chris Sheridan] stops short of putting the Atlanta Hawks on that list but does say that Paul is fond of the city of Atlanta and the Hawks could offer New Orleans an enticing package: ‘The Atlanta Hawks are another team that could offer New Orleans an enticing package of, say, Marvin Williams and Jeff Teague. It’s not known whether Paul would consider signing an extension with the Hawks but he is known to be fond of the city of Atlanta.’”

“I am not sure if a package of Jeff Teague and Marvin Williams would satisfy the Hornets enough to get them to pull the trigger as the Hawks would likely have to offer more. No doubt New Orleans would likely ask for either Josh Smith or Al Horford depending on whether or not they are able to bring back David West. However, if Jeff Teague continues to impress the way he did in the Chicago series, then it might not be a far fetched as it seems at first glance.”

The addition of the Hornets’ star would bring a top caliber point guard to the Hawks after the team passed both Paul and Deron Williams up in the 2005 draft for Marvin Williams.

Marvin Williams (Photo by Dan Fornal)

ESPN recently published an article on the player each team was most likely to regret signing, the “most likely amnesty candidate.” (It’s a creative idea, but yes, the lockout really sucks.)

The candidate for the Hawks? Not surprisingly point guard Marvin Williams. Williams was the Hawks’ number one pick in 2005 over Chris Paul and Deron Williams during the team’s span of uh… less-than-stellar draft picks. Here’s what ESPN had to say about him:

Analysis: Sources with knowledge of the Hawks’ thinking insist that the team isn’t ready to give up on Williams. Atlanta apparently still thinks that, at worst, it can deal him away, despite the Hawks’ inability to find any sort of trade market for Williams up to now. The fact that Atlanta’s ownership situation remains highly unsettled, thanks to the latest revelations about Alex Meruelo’s attempt to buy the franchise potentially collapsing, might also buy Williams some more time in the ATL.

Yet most rival teams believe that, at some point in whatever amnesty window is ultimately made official, Williams and the remaining money on his deal ($25 million through 2013-14) have to go. The guy (Billy Knight) who drafted him ahead of Chris Paul when Paul wanted to land with the Hawks is long gone. There can be no conceivable motivation left within the organization to try to camouflage the grave Williams mistakes (drafting him and then extending him) of the past.

3,000 hits. 300 wins. 600 home runs.

You hear these lofty goals thrown around all the time. And whenever anyone comes close, month-long countdowns ensue, bets are placed for the day it will happen, ESPN jumps all over it. Derek Jeter’s “Countdown to 3,000 Hits” page on Facebook is “liked” by over 6,000 people. Does Kobe Bryant have a Facebook page counting down to his 30,000th point? (No, although he probably has Facebook pages dedicated to some other less appealing attributes…)

Derek Jeter

Career milestones in baseball are practically ingrained in us from the time we first hear the words “Play Ball!” But what about basketball? 20,000 or 25,000 points? 10,000 or 15,000 rebounds?

How are we supposed to compare players’ worth nowadays? How am I supposed to make snap judgments about whether someone belongs in the Hall of Fame or not?

Baseball-reference.com has a whole “Hall of Fame Statistics” section detailing a player’s likelihood for induction into the Hall of Fame based on an elaborate statistical comparison. Chipper Jones has a pretty good shot; Andruw Jones does not.

Basketball-reference.com provides no such analysis. What if I want to see how Joe Johnson compares to current Hall of Famers? Ok, maybe Joe is wishful thinking, but someone like Chris Paul?

[Sidenote: CP3 and Dwight Howard were actually nominated for the International Bowling Hall of Fame last year.]

Come on, NBA. Get your act together. Directionless fans like myself need a more precise method for player comparisons.

Ever wonder if, financially speaking, the Hawks could trade Josh Smith for Chris Paul? Or what players they would have to give up to get Kobe Bryant? What about how to create the “Atlanta Heat” and what players it would take to get Dwayne Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh?

There are a number of rules, regulations, exceptions, and exemptions embedded in the CBA that make certain trades financially feasible based on player salaries, team payrolls and contract restrictions.

I recently discovered ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine, a tool that allows you to play GM. You can see what trades are possible based on a team’s payroll and players’ current salaries. The tool also provides the rationale for why a trade is not feasible based on the CBA and what would need to happen to make it work. Some of  Hollinger’s stats are also incorporated to determine the likely affect of the trade on wins and losses.

So for example, the Hawks could trade Kirk Hinrich and Zaza Pachulia for Dwight Howard for an increase in 17 wins.

If the Hawks wanted to get LeBron, Wade and Bosh (but still keep Joe Johnson), they’d have to give up Horford, Smith, Hinrich, Pachulia, and Williams. This would give them +26 wins according to Hollinger’s formula.

However, trading Josh Smith for Chris Paul would not work: the trade would put the Hawks over the salary cap, their incoming salaries are greater than 125% plus $100,000 of their outgoing salaries. The Hawks would need to cut $215,153 from the incoming value to make this trade possible.

Of course, this is all based purely on the contracts and economics rather than an owner or GM’s desires. And it’s all based on the current CBA, for that matter. Who knows what will happen with all the negotiations in the air? Or even if there will be an NBA season next year? But at least I’ve found a new toy to keep myself entertained with the “what-could-be’s” in the meantime.

The teams for the NBA Finals are set: the Dallas Mavericks against the Miami Heat. A repeat of the 2006 series that the Heat won in 6 games. I wouldn’t mind seeing Dirk finally get a ring after what has been a terrific post-season for him; at the same time, wouldn’t it be something to see the Heat pull off the “I told you so!” despite being the team everyone loved to hate all season? (Thanks, Rick Reilly.)

Anyways, although I was a little disappointed to see some of the younger underdogs get knocked out, it should be a good series, and it would be fun to see either of these two teams take the trophy. (Read: indecision is a win-win.)

And so we’re back to 2006 again. How did the Hawks do in the 2005-2006 season? So glad you asked.

• The summer before, the Hawks selected Marvin Williams in the 2005 draft with their Number 2 pick. This was the year they passed up Deron Williams and Chris Paul. For a UNC bench player.

• Also that summer, the Hawks picked up Joe Johnson from the Suns in return for Boris Diaw and two first-round draft picks. This was the deal that provoked controversy among Atlanta Spirit owners and eventually resulted in the dismissal of Steve Belkin from the group. And is also still being mocked as quite possibly the worst return on investment for a player with a maximum contract.

• On the bright side, Atlanta came back from its worst season in history, doubling the team’s win total from the previous year: 26 wins, 56 losses. Great job, guys.

So as hard as it was to watch the Hawks get eliminated in Round 2 of the playoffs, a little perspective helps. It could always be worse. It could be 2006.

The Grizzlies won their first home playoff game and became only the second number 8 seed to defeat a number 1 seed in a seven-game series. The Hawks and Magic got into feisty battles on and off the court resulting in two ejections and technicals and flagrants galore. Amar’e hurt his back, Rose hurt his ankle, CP3 got a triple-double playing with a bandaged hand and patch over his right eye. And it’s only Round 1.

This is what I love about sports. In a sense, every game is the game; every moment is the moment.

Whether it’s a high school field hockey game or the Super Bowl, day after day, athletes put all of their energy, efforts, and heart into a game. They throw themselves out there and allow themselves to be pushed to new limits and reach greater heights.

Perspective goes out the door. Rafael Belliard hit 2 home runs over the course of a 16-year career. But each time he came up to bat, he didn’t think “Well, I’ll never come close to Hank Aaron’s record, so this at-bat doesn’t matter.” That at-bat is still the at-bat, even if it seems irrelevant in the grand scheme of things in retrospect.

The Spurs’ Game 7 loss to the Grizzlies was the end of the world for San Antonio. Yes, they will probably make it to the playoffs next year and again the year after that. But this year is the year. And Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manú Ginobili put everything into that game.

Yes, that game in which Chris Paul scored 61 points nine years ago was important, even though it was just a high school basketball game. Why? Because each point was in honor of his grandfather who had been beaten to death two days earlier.

And for fans, sports have the benefit of being something that is “cool” or “trendy” to get emotionally invested in. No one makes fun of the guy wearing a big cheesehead hat, taping helmet lights to the TV and lining up his Packer Russian dolls in preparation for game day. He’s not “that crazy guy” (ok, except maybe to his wife). He’s the passionate, die-hard, loyal fan that we chuckle at but kind of love.

No one makes fun of the guy who practices the batting stances of players from every Major League team since the 1980s. They create a massive YouTube following around him, put him on video scoreboards at games, buy his book.

It’s a little cliché to make the “sports are an analogy for life” point, but some things are cliché for a reason. Sports are an outlet and provide a more public manifestation for otherwise unseen or untapped human emotion and drive.

In sports, every game is the game. And, luckily for me, in sports writing, every story is the story as well.

The Hawks’ win against the Magic was the first of three Game 1 upsets in Round 1 of the NBA playoffs. Although the Grizzlies and Hornets elicited a larger shock-and-awe reaction for managing to topple the West’s Number 1 and 2 seeds, I had not come across a single prediction that picked the Hawks over the Magic, despite the close 4- v. 5-seed match-up. Including twelve ESPN analysts.

In fact, those twelve analysts had unanimous picks in six of the eight series. The Mavs-Blazers and Thunder-Nuggets series were the only contests where there was any kind of discrepancy among the group. And neither of those series had Game 1 upsets.

So. What can we make of these upsets? Which games were flukes? Which underdogs might be the real deal? Only one or two games have been played in each of these series, and it might seem a little preemptive to start jumping to radical conclusions. But hey, “It’s not crazy, it’s sports.” Or, my own personal adage along the same lines, “In sports, every day is Ultimatum Day.” (More on this in a future post.) This moment is the moment.

So what do I think going forward from the moment? As much as I would love to see CP3 wipe that smirk off Kobe’s face, or for the Grizzlies to come up with the unthinkable upset after their first playoff win, Ginobli will be back, Kobe will do his thing, and reality will slowly set in.

And what of the more personal matters and my Atlanta Hawks? Well, that’s a little too close for comfort right now. But taking one of two from the Magic in Orlando was a good sign.

I’ve alluded to my frustrations, wishful thinking, and uncertainties with the Hawks’ seemingly never-ending point guard dilemma here and there in prior posts. But in the wake of Jeff Teague’s breakout performance last night against the Blazers and the media’s customary eagerness to jump to conclusions about what this means for the team, I thought I’d dedicate an entire post to the topic.

Allow me to take you along a little trip down memory lane:

Marvin Williams (Photo by Dan Fornal)

2005: The Hawks forgo high-caliber point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams and use their first-round draft pick on Marvin Williams, a forward who wasn’t even a starter with UNC.

Speedy Claxton (Photo by HofstraUniversity)

2006: Speedy Claxton signs a four-year, $25 million contract with Atlanta. He ends up playing 44 games with the Hawks and was injured in every year he played with the team.

Acie Law (Photo by Chris Nelson)

2007: After leading the Aggies to the NCAA Sweet 16, Acie Law is taken 11th overall in the draft by the Hawks. He averages 4.2 points and 2 assists in his rookie season.

Mike Bibby (Photo by Chris Nelson)

2008: The Hawks trade Shelden Williams, Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, Lorenzen Wright and a second-round draft pick for Mike Bibby. The aging point guard manages to do alright, fighting various injuries, but the Hawks don’t make it past the second round of the playoffs in any of the three years he is with the team.

Kirk Hinrich (Photo by Keith Allison)

2011: After rumors that involved Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash and Devin Harris, the Hawks pick up Kirk Hinrich from the Wizards just before the trade deadline. Outcome TBD.

It has been far too long since Atlanta has had a legitimate point guard. So consider this my plea to the point guard gods.

I’m not asking for a come-around-once-in-a-lifetime kind of player like Magic or Isiah. I’m not even asking for a once-in-a-decade guy like D-Rose or CP3.

It doesn’t matter how it comes along. It could come in the form of the light bulb finally going off for Teague who finds his groove in a sudden “Eureka!” moment. It could come in the form of miraculous chemistry that comes together with Hinrich’s leadership on and off the court. I’d even settle for waiting a few months for an intelligent draft pick that actually works out. Is that so much to ask?

So please, Point Guard Gods, look down on us with compassion. Take pity on the loyal Atlanta Hawks fans who, with each draft think “Maybe this could be the time management doesn’t completely blow their first-round pick;” who, at the beginning of each season, think “Maybe this could be the time things come together!”

I don’t promise that this will be the last you hear from me on this subject. But the sooner this happens, the sooner I will stop my griping and groaning.