There’s been a noticeable lack of news from the North Side since the Cubs lost out on Brandon McCarthy, and what little news there was, Carl stole for yesterday’s headlines. And besides, I really don’t want to talk about a new Spring Training facility, the ethereal “Triangle Building,” or the Cubs Convention.
Which leaves us with this: Assuming the Cubs make no more (significant) moves before the season starts, answer the following questions:
1) Where does this team finish in the 2013 NL Central?
2) Do the 2013 Cubs lose 100 games?
3) What moves still need to be made to make this team competitive (and be realistic, no “sign ARod” or any of that baloney).
This should keep us occupied for most of the afternoon.
Go.
This team is rebuilding and this will be another painful year. It isn’t going to a fun season. There are no moves that can be made that are going to make the team imminently competitive. We’ve got to wait for the crop of talent Theo and company are growing to reach the point of being useful in the big leagues.
1) At this time, I believe the Brewers might compete with the Cubs for last place. Yes…the Brewers. It’s early yet, and Milwaukee could still make some big moves, but they are overly reliant on Ryan Braun and an unproven pitching staff.
2) No.
3) Honestly, I’m not sure there is anything the Cubs could do right now to without sacrificing the entire farm system in the process…and even doing that might not work. As far as I’m concerned, the only way the Cubs could compete is if the Reds, Pirates and Cardinals all moved to the American League.
I think the word compete is missing somewhere in that first line of #3.
1)4th Place
2) No
3) See Below….
(A) Trade for 1 of 2 young 3B….Olt or Castellanos. Something like Garza, Barney, and $$$ for Castellanos and a Lower Level Prospect or 2. I know its a dream but hey I can Dream.
(B)Trade Dejesus to Seattle for a prospect or 2.
(C) Wait out Michael Bourn and get him to sign a short term contract….no more than 3 years.
(D) Again wait out 1 of the other available upper tier starters like Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum and sign them to a 2-3 yr deal.
Lineup of:
Bourn
Castro
Rizzo
Soriano
Olt
Logan Watkins
Sappelt/Schierholtz
Castillo/Navarro
Pitcher
Rotation:
Shark
Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum
Feldman
Baker
Wood
Bullpen:
Marmol(CP)
Fujikawa
Russell
Camp
Bowden
Rondon
Vizcaino/Low Level Free agent
Bench:
Sappelt/Schierholtz
Castillo/Navarro
Valbuena
Another Utility IF
Another OF(Maybe Jackson or Campana)
Probably gonna stretch out Arodys Vizcaino in AAA and will have Rusin/Another Low Cost SP as 6th or 7th Starters.
Flame Away!
That isn’t a roster the can compete with the Reds or Cardinals (or Pittsburgh).
Or anyone.
I think it could compete with the Marlins.
Oh man, I forgot about that disaster. Yeah, that’s probably true.
Probably right but tried to stay “somewhat” realistic.
Overall, I thought those were some interesting ideas…and I like the way you approached filling some of the holes the team had while still holding on to prospects. Even so, a lineup that unproven and a pitching staff that unproven isn’t likely to compete.
Definitely agree. At 1st I was way way opposed to the idea of Michael Bourn and still am if its anymore than a 2-3 yr deal. With that being said a true table setting leadoff man with legit speed is is starting to appeal to me alot. Yes I realize even with a lineup that I posted we wouldn’t be real contenders but I think an addition like Bourn would start making our overall team look more formal(Not sure formal is a good word to use).
On top of that I would really like to see Castro in the 2 hole. I think were gonna get 25-30 HR’s from both Rizzo and Sori.
Again it won’t compete but I think a lineup like that would start to build confidence and a sense of normalcy going forward which I feel could potentially really add to the foundation going forward. It would also allow for players to start batting in positions their more suited for, namely Castro.
Rizzo is going to be an interesting case to watch this year. He still has some holes in his swing that most NL pitchers are going to try to exploit this year. We’ll see how well he can adjust. I think 25 homers (assuming he gets 600 at-bats) is a no brainer…but I’m wondering how his other stats will pan out.
http://rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?Team=CHC Pretty good projection although I think his Avg etc is a touch too high.
For as few ABs as Rizzo has had in his career, it’s really difficult to get a good read on where he’s going to go…though all indications are he should be successful. Most projections I think have Rizzo putting up great numbers this year. In fact, Bill James, as I recall, has him putting up some crazy good numbers in 2013. Hopefully the projections are right. I tend to be more cautious until the player has two full seasons under his belt.
Yeah, I think it is somewhat (at least) realistic – but that’s the problem. This team is so far from contention that even that doesn’t get the team into contention.
As we all know too well, this rebuilding crap requires patience.
As simple thing to really help people lower their expectations here is simply this:
Significant improvement for this team would, at best, be about a 20 game improvement over what they did last season. To achieve more that that would be close to impossible. A 20 game improvement would be an enormous turnaround for this team and should be something we are all excited about.
But a 20 game improvement would only make the Cubs a .500 team.
I think we can improve by 20 games just by better baserunning and a shored up bullpen. Both of which has absolutely killed us for several years now. Not sure the exact number but I would guess-timate I saw at least 40 games last year we ran ourselves right out of innings and ultimately out of ballgames.
This team couldn’t drive in runs last year. If that doesn’t change, 20 games won’t be possible. Forget about baserunning. Forget about the bullpen. If this team incapable of coming back from a 2 run deficit, then the Cubs are looking at 90 losses easily. This offense has not been significantly improved in any way.
I def agree but like I said there were so many damn times we would get momentum going and kill it by over running a base or getting picked off or running sluggish out of the box. Simple fundamentals have absolutely haunted us for several years now.
I think Dave Mckay(Which I like ALOT) will further improve this, this season.
Exactly.
:/
Nice Article http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2012/12/guest-post-sean-manaea-scouting-report/
That’s interesting…but I’m wondering if:
a) he’ll stay in college for his senior year and
b) if the Cubs would rather go after a high school player.
In my mind you usually always take the best available player no matter the age/level/position. In this situation considering we have almost no SP’ing coming, I gotta think they take the most polished college arm with the biggest upside.
The Cubs were even more deprived of pitching at last year’s draft. They selected a high school shortstop.
I thought we selected Almora? Baez was the year b4 IIRC.
Sorry..you are right. For some reason I had a brain fart and thought Almora was a shortstop instead of an outfielder….but the point remains the same.
Just an opinion but I think Arodys Vizcaino could be a real tell tell sign of the future of this team at least in the short term. A Shark/Vizcaino cost controlled 1-2 punch with Travis Wood a #5 could turn this team around in a hurry.
I know you are high on Vizcaino. I don’t think he projects to much more than a #2 starter at best. Neither does Spellcheck. They would be, again at best, good 2-3 punch in the starting rotation. Assuming Garza is gone, the Cubs would still need a #1.
But in the end, Vizcaino’s injury history tells me his future will likely have to be in the bullpen. Great arm…but it sounds like the torque he puts on his elbow and shoulder will likely continue his arm problems. With what I’ve heard of his control, which is very good, a roll as a setup man and eventually closer might better fit him.
Speaking of Garza… whats going on there?
Nothing right now.
I don’t think Jed/Theo are willing to trade him at the moment just because his trade value is pretty low due to his injury. If he has a good spring, he might be gone before camp breaks, otherwise, I figure he’ll be gone by the trade deadline.
He def has somewhat of a violent delivery. I actually can’t wait to see the kid though, he intrigues me for some reason.
As much as I don’t wanna like Shark, well mainly because I can’t stand that fucking hair and his pubic mustache, I really think mentally he wants to succeed and live up to expectations. I think Shark has always possessed the raw talent to be a real #1 or really close but was extremely rushed and his secondary pitches have lagged. The development of those and learning to “pitch” instead of throw vastly improved last season in my books.
I’m pretty negative in most cases and in most cases for good reason but their is some players on this team I think we can start to get excited about.
Samardzija was good last year. Very good. In fact he probably had the best season of any Cubs pitcher in the last 3 years. He’s still only going to be 28…and he’ll likely have a few years before he hits his peak. It’s amazing what a kid like him can do when the organization decides to stop jerking him around like a yoyo and give him a defined role to perform.
Everything turned around for him at the end of 2010. He came up from Iowa and his pitching motion was completely different and his approach on the mound had changed. From that point he’s been the 2nd best pitcher the Cubs have had next to Garza.
On top of that, he’s got very sound mechanics which hopefully means he isn’t likely to have elbow or shoulder problems down the road.
I’m not sure Cubs fans will ever really embrace the kid after he struggled so much after the Cubs rushed him up to the big leagues. A 15 win season and an ERA under 3.75 could change their minds though. But if not, Samardzija could be very appealing on the trade market since he has so much team control left.
He-e-e-e-y!
Don’t be dissing Samardzija’s head fur.
Julie will be all over you like a ‘shark’.
You have far more faith in Spellcheck than do I.
Is winter over yet?
I would settle for 3:30pm at this point.
Ha. Yes, indeed.
Okay-
1. Last, what else?
2. Probably-losing less than 100, that is the one doable goal for the Cubs to shoot for.
3. What they are trying to do; get good young players, and wait…
Uh-oh . . Doc:
http://theclicker.today.com/_news/2012/12/11/15846565-storage-wars-star-claims-in-lawsuit-that-show-is-rigged?lite
Jeanna and I have gotten into debates about this show being rigged for a while. I almost immediately said that it was rigged. Nothing there surprised me. Just confirms what I thought in the first place. Now I can go back to Jeanna and tell her “I told you so!”.
Watching the Greinke presser,and he stated the main reason he signed with the Dodgers over the Angels, is that the Dodgers “will contend for the World Series every year.” Thank god, the Cubs are not wasting money this year….
The dodgers are going to go down the crapper, their little faces swirling round and round and disappear in that final loud sucking gurgling belch the commode makes.
1) Last place
2) yes
3) Arrange for a meteor to fall on the other four NL Central cities
Seriously though, there’s not much they can do at this point now that all the big FAs have been snapped up. The only way that they could contend next year would be to drop some cash on most of the FAs that are left (Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Bourn, Hamilton), and trade away half the farm system that they’ve been building to get Justin Upton. That would still leave huge holes at 3b and catcher, but that might be enough to get them on the cusp of contending. It would cripple the future both in prospects traded and draft pick compensation though.
WAH.
I wrote a longer look at building a contender. It’s not pretty. If they drop $130m or so they might have a shot.
http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/the-hope-monster-strikes-back-how-the-cubs-can-contend-in-2013.html
Ya know? Bill Veeck in his last days as the White Sox owner and sustainer of a franchise that was seriously looking like it was goung to leave Chicago, used to sign free agents to short term (1-2 yr) contracts.
He had little money and couldn’t guarantee he could keep the team from being bought by someone else, but he wanted to keep the team competitive while they hung on in Chicago.
And he did. Some of the teams were exciting and would make amazing comebacks. No opponent’s lead was too big to overcome or so it was believed.
I think the White Sox crowds were 1st in the nation with that “Sha-na-na-na Sha-na-na-na Hey hey hey Good-bye!”.
I know this is heresy but I would listen to them on the radio because the crowd was so rowdy. Harry Caray and that lunatic Jimmy Piersall…it was a riot.
Really I’m kinda bummed tuning into the Cubs and basically knowing they are going to lose. But…anyways:
1.CUBS will finish in 1st place with an amazing august and september. How? You got me.
2. obviously not
3. Do the ‘Veeck’ and let’s at least show teams we WILL score some runs.
So the Phillies and Cubs have discussed a trade . . Soriano for Domonic Brown.
Do you know how much more BRUTAL this offense will be without Soriano’s offense? I want his crappy offense gone, but man, next season is going to be hard to watch.